The 2012 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Debate

[hippie_hunter]

If economy improves Obama will win in a landslide.

Most incumbents tend to win if the economy is good. It's why Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush won second terms.

A dead Bin Laden and a averted recession. Nobody can challenge that.

The bin Laden bump Obama got in the polls is completely gone now. This is all going to come down to the economy. And it's looking like the economy is not going to improve enough by the time the November election comes out.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Or maybe he's actually a black Republican who wants to be a serious challenge to Obama. A black Republican surprising

lol, only two percent of republicans are black yet the republicans showcase Micheal Steel and Herman Cain just to appear diverse when they really aren't.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I think AND hoping the economy will improve somewhat before November 2012. I go to College in 2013 and imma need a job lol.

Well I hope that the economy improves by November of 2012, but despite all that Obama and the Democrats say, it isn't feeling like it at all. Obama is going to have to change his economic message because when you have over 8% unemployment, high inflation, stagnant wages, etc., people are going to get pissed off when you say "I stabilized the economy."

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

If we had some really credible republican candidates, I'd be scared for Obama. But the republicans all have major issues that will hurt them. Romney is the best but that medicare issue is gonna make him look less credible in many eyes. Obama isn't unbeatable but if the economy picks up even a little, just something he can say see im making progress, I think he'll win.

 

[hippie_hunter]

lol, only two percent of republicans are black yet the republicans showcase Micheal Steel and Herman Cain just to appear diverse when they really aren't.

Republicans don't like to showcase Michael Steele, the man was an idiot.

Herman Cain on the other hand, is being treated a bit more seriously. Republicans also like to showcase Allen West and Tim Scott (who defeated Strom Thurmond's son in the primary). Nikki Haley also won the governorship in South Carolina and Susana Martinez won the governorship in New Mexico.

Also, the main reason why Republicans don't try to court black voters is because black voters aren't willing to listen to Republicans, they automatically vote Democrat. No matter how hard a Republican will try, the Democratic candidate will always win over 80% of the black vote. While not ethical or moral, Republican strategists just see trying to court the black vote as a waste of time, effort, and money. Listening goes both ways, Republicans should be trying to court the black vote, but the black vote needs to start looking at Republican candidates.

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

Its funny cause most black are conservative but still vote Democrat. Im glad they vote Democrat since im a liberal person.

 

[hippie_hunter]

If we had some really credible republican candidates, I'd be scared for Obama. But the republicans all have major issues that will hurt them. Romney is the best but that medicare issue is gonna make him look less credible in many eyes. Obama isn't unbeatable but if the economy picks up even a little, just something he can say see im making progress, I think he'll win.

It isn't if the economy picks up even a little, it comes down to how voters perceive the economy. Despite growth in GDP and months where unemployment has gone down, voters still see the economy in tatters.

 

[DACrowe]

Most incumbents tend to win if the economy is good. It's why Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush won second terms.



The bin Laden bump Obama got in the polls is completely gone now. This is all going to come down to the economy. And it's looking like the economy is not going to improve enough by the time the November election comes out.

I hope the economy improves. But he has a lot of other accomplishments to run on and a big part of it will be running AGAINST someone. A major factor to Bush's reelection was painting Kerry as a flipflopping coward. Fair or accurate? No, but it worked. I'm not saying obama's campaign will go as sleazy as Karl Rove, but expect a lot of negative ads looking to undermine who the nominee is. And they all have weaknesses.

But yes, the economy leaves Obama vulnerable for next November.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Its funny cause most black are conservative but still vote Democrat. Im glad they vote Democrat since im a liberal person.

You shouldn't be glad about that. If the black vote didn't automatically vote Democrat, Republicans would try to do things to court them. There would be more black politicians throughout the country and the black vote wouldn't be politically stagnant with Republicans ignoring them and Democrats taking them for granted.

 

[Excel]

Just finished watching it. Bachman is going to win the nomination. She is going to come off as a sane Sarah Palin, and will win the nomination over Mitt Romney, and then lose to Obama. Bachman was EASILY the big winner. Its amazing how well she walked the line women must walk between coming off as too soft/nice and a *****.

Mark it down here. Michelle Bachman is going to win the Republican nomination. Book it. She's the freshest thing they have that is an acceptable choice.

 

[DACrowe]

Just finished watching it.

Bachman is going to win the nomination. She is going to come off as a sane Sarah Palin, and will win the nomination over Mitt Romney, and then lose to Obama.

She'll win Iowa and then maybe, maybe South Carolina. But I highly doubt she'll win the nomination. If she did, the Republicans would be handing Obama the election....which I am totally fine with.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I hope the economy improves. But he has a lot of other accomplishments to run on and a big part of it will be running AGAINST someone. A major factor to Bush's reelection was painting Kerry as a flipflopping coward. Fair or accurate? No, but it worked. I'm not saying obama's campaign will go as sleazy as Karl Rove, but expect a lot of negative ads looking to undermine who the nominee is. And they all have weaknesses.

But yes, the economy leaves Obama vulnerable for next November.

What saved Bush the most was the fact that the economy just wasn't as bad as John Kerry and the Democrats tried to fearmonger the voters to believe. Flip flopping and being an uninspiring candidate certainly didn't help Kerry, but beating the guy who lead the country during 9/11, overthrew Saddam but before Iraq fell into complete and utter chaos, and a passable economy is a very hard task to do. Karl Rove being a sleezy genius helped a bit too.

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

Eh lesser of two evils. I feel both parties are full crap but I take the democrats over republicans any day. Two party system thats not gonna change.

 

[hippie_hunter]

She'll win Iowa and then maybe, maybe South Carolina. But I highly doubt she'll win the nomination. If she did, the Republicans would be handing Obama the election....which I am totally fine with.

Yeah, I think Republicans are going to be more obsessed with getting a candidate that can beat Barack Obama than getting a Michelle Bachmann-esque candidate. The hatred Republicans have for Obama makes the hatred Democrats have for Bush pale in comparison.

 

[8wid]

Yes he can. First of all, Hillary doesn't want to be Vice President, as a matter in fact, she plans to retire from politics after Obama's first term.

Second, the economy isn't going to go up enough in time for the November election. Comments on how he stabilized the economy or how he turned it around are going to hurt him, because lets say that he has, the fact is that people aren't feeling it. And when he says things like that, he comes off as very out of touch and completely ignorant. His poll numbers in regards to the economy are very, very, VERY poor. Add in the fact that his policies regarding health care, the stimulus, cap and trade, the auto bailout, Libya, etc. are unpopular. Afghanistan would also be very unpopular if he didn't kill Osama bin Laden.

Obama is very beatable in 2012. I'm not saying that he's guaranteed to lose, but there is a strong chance that he will lose his re-election bid.

Afghanistan may improve if in July Obama announces a plan to withdrawal by 2013. Especially too since the military has Osama Bin Laden's intelligence and has been killing or capturing Al-Qaeda leaders right and left, especially in Somalia and Yemen, he may be credited with breaking the group down for good. The Libya intervention shouldn't last passed the end of the year and the Iraq withdrawal should be complete by then too. Minus the newly established bases that is. I think there is a correlation to gas prices and American consumer spending as there are wars. Watch them both get better after that is over. The Arab Spring will probably improve it because new secular democratic governments will appear in their place and eventually want to trade with the U.S. in a modern way too.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Afghanistan may improve if in July Obama announces a plan to withdrawal by 2013. Especially too since the military has Osama Bin Laden's intelligence and has been killing or capturing Al-Qaeda leaders right and left, especially in Somalia and Yemen, he may be credited with breaking the group down for good.

Very true, I can definitely see this as a plausible scenario. While the bin Laden bump may be gone, I think voters are going to trust him more with national security issues more than the Republican candidate due to this.

 

[DACrowe]

So a strong national defense incumbent Democrat being challenged by an economically "concerned" Republican? Go figure.

 

[Excel]

Yeah, I think Republicans are going to be more obsessed with getting a candidate that can beat Barack Obama than getting a Michelle Bachmann-esque candidate. The hatred Republicans have for Obama makes the hatred Democrats have for Bush pale in comparison.

Bachman is from the tea party; it does not get any more Anti Obama. Forget the establishment that is the GOP. There is not a single man on that stage who the people want to elect; thats why people have been crying it is a weak field. Bachman is the only unknown, and the only one who will actually generate any legitimate enthusiasm. It will come down to Romney and Bachman, and there are too many Republicans who just do not like Romney. Its similar to Obama vs. Clinton. The independents will go with the fresh face and the one with real enthusiasm. Plus it is not like theres any sort of empirical evidence suggesting Romney could beat Obama.

She is going to win. Mark it down.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

You shouldn't be glad about that. If the black vote didn't automatically vote Democrat, Republicans would try to do things to court them. There would be more black politicians throughout the country and the black vote wouldn't be politically stagnant with Republicans ignoring them and Democrats taking them for granted.

Ignoring black voter could mean a low black voter turn out which could be disasterous for democrat candidates.

So it is still in the best interest for democrats to court black voters even though there is little worry of them switching sides.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Ignoring black voter could mean a low black voter turn out which could be disasterous for democrat candidates.

So it is still in the best interest for democrats to court black voters even though there is little worry of them switching sides.

I didn't say that they ignore them. They just take the black vote for granted. The Republicans are the ones who ignore them.

 

[hippie_hunter]

She is going to win. Mark it down.

I'm going to hold you to this one

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I didn't say that they ignore them. They just take the black vote for granted. The Republicans are the ones who ignore them.

well replace the word "ignoring" with the words "taking for granted".

My point still stands.

Black voters could simply refuse to vote which would hurt a democrats at the polls.

 

[Russell Nash]

Bachmann is great at raising money, but she has some deep closets full of skeletons. It mostly has to do with her husbands "closet" if you know what I mean. Do a little research on the "clinic" her husband runs. It works directly with local church leaders to pray the gay away. All of those foster kids is another red flag, if you catch my drift.

 

[Matt]

Bachmann is a fringe candidate. The media is talking about her because Trump is out of the picture, to the general public, Ron Paul is so 2008, and we need a fringe candidate to entertain us. Eventually she will either say or do something crazy enough to make people forget about her.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Bachmann is a fringe candidate. The media is talking about her because Trump is out of the picture, to the general public, Ron Paul is so 2008, and we need a fringe candidate to entertain us. Eventually she will either say or do something crazy enough to make people forget about her.

I wouldn't call Bachmann a fringe candidate. I think that last was a very decisive night for the TPaw, Santorum, and Bachmann campaigns.

I think that Bachmann successfully positioned herself as the Mike Huckabee/Sarah Palin type candidate. To just shrug her off as a mere fringe candidate now is underestimating her.

TPaw's horrible performance pretty much killed his candidacy. His desire to position himself as the anti-Romney candidate failed with him not being willing to back up his Obamneycare attacks. With Bachmann now a serious candidate, she's going to take away a lot (if not most) of votes that TPaw needs in order to win Iowa.

Rick Santorum was negated by Michelle Bachmann last night. Just like how Ron Paul negated away Gary Johnson.