The Amazing Spider-Man The Amazing Spider-Man: Box Office Thread

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

You can be sure people will know about the Avengers by the time it arrives in theaters, especially now that Disney is doing the marketing. I think it has a pretty high awareness factor with the GA. There is no denying that there's apathy in some circles for the reboot. So It will be a close race at the B.O. If ASM is great, It could be a juggernaut. The good will or resistence that people talk about could be done or undone in a single weekend or less. Or even with a good trailer. I don't have much concern with that. I believe it would capture most of the doubters/skeptics in really short order with good word of mouth. My opinion is likely to fluctuate over the closing months with the trailer releases and various other things, but right know I feel pretty confident in saying that ASM will finish third in the pack. I am also confident we'll get a great film. Thats the most important factor for me.

 

[DACrowe]

One has a trailer online and playing before movies the other doesn't. That will change.

 

[Spiderman6592]

Yeah and as that changes Spider-Man will have multiple trailers and promotion coming out the wazoo. People are always talking about Disney and their marketing, but let's not forget how well Sony promoted the first three Spider-Man films. They're ****ing marketing geniuses over there as well.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

One has a trailer online and playing before movies the other doesn't. That will change.

And Disney just fired Marvel's marketing department and has taken over those duties. Get ready for the onslaught.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Yeah and as that changes Spider-Man will have multiple trailers and promotion coming out the wazoo. People are always talking about Disney and their marketing, but let's not forget how well Sony promoted the first three Spider-Man films. They're ****ing marketing geniuses over there as well.

There is no doubt that Spidey will be huge, but it's a reboot, so it's not a given that it will make more at the B.O. The Avengers will be a monster. And Disney (like Sony) are great marketers. Everyone will know about the Avengers buy the time May comes around.

 

[Spiderman6592]

And everyone will know about TASM and be able to differentiate it from the first 3 by the time July comes around.

Spider-Man has a WAY larger foundation than The Avengers in terms of fans. Regardless of it being a reboot, people will see it purely out of curiosity because it's Spider-Man. Sony knows how to make this film look good. They made ****ing Spider-Man 3 look like it was going to be a candidate for best picture.

Quote me on it now, TASM will make more than The Avengers next summer.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Spider-Man has a WAY larger foundation than The Avengers in terms of fans. Regardless of it being a reboot, people will see it purely out of curiosity because it's Spider-Man.

And Superman has a WAY larger foundation of fans than Iron Man, yet Returns opened to $50 million while Iron Man opened to $100 million. People had seen Superman before while Iron Man was a big shiney new car that nobody had driven. In this instance The Avengers is the big shiney new car.

Quote me on it now, TASM will make more than The Avengers next summer.

I would not be surprised if ASM did make more, especially if it's great. But I'm going with what I feel at the moment. This is a time in which I would absolutely love to be wrong. I hope I am.

 

[Spiderman6592]

Iron Man came out two years after Superman Returns and got absolutely destroyed by The Dark Knight...so that's kind of irrelevant.


Superman Returns was also going up against a much more formidable line up in The Da Vinci Code, X-Men: The Last Stand, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest and Mission Impossible III.

Iron Man's only true combatant in the summer of 2008 was The Dark Knight.


Spider-Man 1 also made more than any Avengers related movie. And by more I mean absolutely destroyed.


It's painfully clear that people want to see Spider-Man in the theaters. He is the highest grossing comic book movie character to be featured on screen and I don't see that mantle being taken away any time soon.

 

[DACrowe]

And everyone will know about TASM and be able to differentiate it from the first 3 by the time July comes around.

Spider-Man has a WAY larger foundation than The Avengers in terms of fans. Regardless of it being a reboot, people will see it purely out of curiosity because it's Spider-Man. Sony knows how to make this film look good. They made ****ing Spider-Man 3 look like it was going to be a candidate for best picture.

Quote me on it now, TASM will make more than The Avengers next summer.

People already get it's another Spider-Man movie unrelated to the last three...the problem they have is that most people like the last three (or most of the last three) and are not keen on seeing what for all intensive purposes appears to be the same story as SM1 which came out only ten years ago. Yes, I know it will be darker and deal with his dead parents and the villain will be the Lizard, etc. But it's still the story of high school outsider, Peter Parker, getting bitten by a magical spider of some sort that gives him spider powers who then feels responsible for his uncle getting gunned down and learns that with great power....

TASM may be a great movie. It may be gangbusters better than the Raimi movies. However, much like Nolan's Batman Begins, it is going to have to struggle with the perception of being a rehash. That perception is going to hurt it. Not to mention its weaker release date compared to The Avengers. The Avengers does not feel like a rehash and features the other super popular Marvel superhero right now without being recast.

You're setting yourself up for major disappointment. I'll be happily surprised if TASM beats Twilight at the box office next year....much less TDKR or The Avengers.

P.S. You're right the trailers for SM3 were deceptively insane. However, those were also built on the good will the first three Spidey films garnered. When those teasers began popping up in 2006 I still remember people "ooohing" and "ahhhing" in the theaters at another, "epic," Spidey movie. The reaction to the first teaser for TASM has been very different.

 

[DACrowe]

Iron Man came out two years after Superman Returns and got absolutely destroyed by The Dark Knight...so that's kind of irrelevant.


Superman Returns was also going up against a much more formidable line up in The Da Vinci Code, X-Men: The Last Stand, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest and Mission Impossible III.

Iron Man's only true combatant in the summer of 2008 was The Dark Knight.

Didn't Iron Man have to contend with Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull in the same month? Most of the films you named came out in May....though notably SR opened against POTCMC which was a terrible idea. While TASM opens....right next to TDKR. A much more hyped and anticipated movie that has the same core audience. Talk about cutting the legs out from under the movie. Oh well.

 

[Spiderman6592]

TASM is going to make HUGE numbers on the 5 day weekend that the 4th of July provides. They then have 3 weekends after that to gain even more. Sure, as soon as TDKR rolls into town, numbers are bound to shoot down, but if the film is good and has legs, the hit won't be as big as its being made out to be. Not to mention the boost that will be given to it through 3D and IMAX ticket sales.

 

[Liam_H]

Iron Man came out two years after Superman Returns and got absolutely destroyed by The Dark Knight...so that's kind of irrelevant.


Superman Returns was also going up against a much more formidable line up in The Da Vinci Code, X-Men: The Last Stand, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest and Mission Impossible III.

I find this statement to be pretty weird since they came out a good two months apart, so they didn't really have any effect on each other BO wise.

However TDKR comes out 2 weeks later, which will cut into ASM's performance.

 

[Doctor Jones]

People already get it's another Spider-Man movie unrelated to the last three...the problem they have is that most people like the last three (or most of the last three) and are not keen on seeing what for all intensive purposes appears to be the same story as SM1 which came out only ten years ago. Yes, I know it will be darker and deal with his dead parents and the villain will be the Lizard, etc. But it's still the story of high school outsider, Peter Parker, getting bitten by a magical spider of some sort that gives him spider powers who then feels responsible for his uncle getting gunned down and learns that with great power....

TASM may be a great movie. It may be gangbusters better than the Raimi movies. However, much like Nolan's Batman Begins, it is going to have to struggle with the perception of being a rehash. That perception is going to hurt it. Not to mention its weaker release date compared to The Avengers. The Avengers does not feel like a rehash and features the other super popular Marvel superhero right now without being recast.

You're setting yourself up for major disappointment. I'll be happily surprised if TASM beats Twilight at the box office next year....much less TDKR or The Avengers.

P.S. You're right the trailers for SM3 were deceptively insane. However, those were also built on the good will the first three Spidey films garnered. When those teasers began popping up in 2006 I still remember people "ooohing" and "ahhhing" in the theaters at another, "epic," Spidey movie. The reaction to the first teaser for TASM has been very different.

Well said, sir. As objective as can be.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

There's some serious overestimation of The Avengers going on.

It's going to do good business, but there hasn't been a single Marvel Studios movie, outside of the two Iron Man films, to do $200 million and up stateside or over $600 million worldwide. So this idea of "It's gonna do $300 million domestic and $800 million worldwide!" isn't realistic. Yes, The Avengers has a great release date (First weekend of May starting up the summer film season), but then again so did Thor and that peaked at $181 million.

Made my thoughts on The Amazing Spider-Man clear forever now. Under-performer, a lot of people are still going, "Where's Tobey?" and "Why are they doing the origin story again? The first movie wasn't that long ago?!"

 

[Spiderman6592]

While I disagree with your TASM assessment, thank you for making clear what I've been saying all this time.

 

[DACrowe]

Except he mentioned only Iron Man movies have done $300 million US....Iron man's in The Avengers. And in case people are weary, he's now interacting with Thor and Captain America. RDJ's Tony Stark, the draw of the IM movies, is in The Avengers along with a twist. That is why people are so confident it's going to do that well.

 

[Spiderman6592]

Iron Man, Thor, Captain America, Hulk and whoever else all attract the same audience. The people who saw Thor, are the same people that saw Iron Man. The only reason Iron Man made more is because of what you said, the RDJ draw. So, I don't see The Avengers making a whole lot more than Iron Man has. The logic fails as to why all of a sudden out of nowhere they're going to get this huge audience. It won't make more than its most popular character's movie and if it does, it will be a small, small margin.

 

[chaseter]

Where did Batman all of a sudden get 2.5x more of an audience with TDK?

It's not like this movie is going to suddenly be the event movie of the summer. TDKR is the event movie of the summer. Avengers is the other event movie of the summer. Those two right now have the biggest fan and GA draw. I would bet if SHH did a front page poll about what movie fans are most excited to see next year, TDKR would be #1 and Avengers would be #2. Spidey would likely be #3. That isn't a bad thing, this movie may be amazing, but it's a reboot and it has to win back over everyone that loved the previous franchise that is barely 4 years old. If this movie is amazing, then TASM2 will be the event movie of 2014 or whenever.

 

[Spiderman6592]

It got two and half times more because not only did Heath Ledger put on a ridiculous performance that was generating Oscar buzz before the film even came out, but also because he died and that was his last major role in film.

Guarantee you if Andrew Garfield or Emma Stone died a few months before the film released then this movie would make over a billion as well. I don't get why people fail to realize that Heath Ledger's death was a HUGE factor in the success of TDK. It's not a hard thing to figure out.

And why are people claiming The Avengers is the "second event film of the summer" outside of superherohype, no one is talking about The Avengers. No one knows that an Avengers film is coming out next year, and a large majority of people don't even know who The Avengers are...

 

[chaseter]

TDK did not get an additional 250 million domestic because Heath died.

Just google most anticipated movies of 2012 and look what comes up. Go look on IMDB and see what people put as their most anticipated. If you ask some random person on the street what their most anticipated movie of 2012 is going to be...I would bet a vast majority would say TDKR. Look at the RT percentage of people wanting to see these movies:

TDKR 98%
The Avengers 98%
TASM 94%

 

[Troy_Parker]

Lol, quite a few people outside of the Hype know The Avengers is coming out.

Even casual filmgoers.

The 5, 6 movies that have lead up to The Avengers didn't exactly do their jobs if they didn't make the general public aware of a big, upcoming team-up movie.

 

[Liam_H]

Yes, TDK got a huge opening weekend because of Ledger but other factors also contributed for the legs of the movie.

 

[DACrowe]

Iron Man, Thor, Captain America, Hulk and whoever else all attract the same audience. The people who saw Thor, are the same people that saw Iron Man. The only reason Iron Man made more is because of what you said, the RDJ draw. So, I don't see The Avengers making a whole lot more than Iron Man has. The logic fails as to why all of a sudden out of nowhere they're going to get this huge audience. It won't make more than its most popular character's movie and if it does, it will be a small, small margin.

I agree The Avengers isn't going to make much more than Iron Man/Iron Man 2. That's why I predicted it to make around $300-$320 million. Iron Man numbers.

TASM will probably not make those numbers because it is opening in a more crowded part of the summer with, as I've said numerous times, the perception of a rehash and audience resistance. It's Spidey, so it will automatically crack $200 million (something Thor and Cap will never do without more ticket inflation). If it's good, as i expect/hope it to be, it'll cross $250 million. But if by the fourth and fifth Harry Potter the films were dipping under $300 million....I suspect a too-soon reboot of Spidey will perform similarly.

 

[DACrowe]

Where did Batman all of a sudden get 2.5x more of an audience with TDK?

It's not like this movie is going to suddenly be the event movie of the summer. TDKR is the event movie of the summer. Avengers is the other event movie of the summer. Those two right now have the biggest fan and GA draw. I would bet if SHH did a front page poll about what movie fans are most excited to see next year, TDKR would be #1 and Avengers would be #2. Spidey would likely be #3. That isn't a bad thing, this movie may be amazing, but it's a reboot and it has to win back over everyone that loved the previous franchise that is barely 4 years old. If this movie is amazing, then TASM2 will be the event movie of 2014 or whenever.

Exactly.

Well said.

 

[Spiderman6592]

Liam hit the nail on the head. Chaseter and Crowe, TDK had a HUGE opening weekend because of Heath and then it donned on people that Nolan's Batman films were excellent. Word spread and more and more people went, and more and more kept coming back. That's how it got $250 mil more domestic. It's not a hard thing to figure out. It's painfully obvious that TDKR is going to destroy both TASM and TA but there's no way TA makes more than TASM. There isn't.


And online polls for most anticipated films are ****ing stupid.


Guess what I just found! According to www.movieinsider.com One For The Money is the most anticipated film of 2012!

Give me a break.

Not to mention the fact that the people on imdb are SHH members amongst other movie fanatics that pay attention to upcoming films. They are far from what I consider the general audience.