The Dark Knight Rises The Box Office Thread

[hatebox]

I saw one of these in Spider-Man forum which hasn't been taken down yet so, since it's a topic I find unusually interesting, I thought 'why not'?


Assuming TDKR gets a China release (which TDK didn't) there's little reason to believe that the international box office won't increase for this film. $500m from overseas shouldn't be too much of a problem, especially with the ever expanding markets in the 4 years that have passed since 2008. In fact, if it's a really well-received film, $600m could be in play.


The question, of course, is how will domestic fare. I don't subscribe to the whole 'TDK only made a lot of money because Ledger died' mind-set. That's ridiculous. What I do believe is that the Batman-Joker dynamic is wildly popular, and without that it'll be interesting to see if the almost unprecedented anticipation (and, hopefully, quality) of TDKR is enough to offset the lack of Joker and push it to $450m-$500m (or maybe more?) domestically.

So. It's a while away, but what do you think?

 

[BigEggo]

dont think itll beat TDK to be honest.i think theres little doubt that heaths death before the films release generated a certain morbid curiosity in people who otherwise might not have gone to see it.im not saying thats the reason it was a massive hit-im just saying it contributed somewhat,this kind of thing is human nature.

im expecting maybe 100 mill off TDK overall.

 

[gillberg2k1]

I saw one of these in Spider-Man forum which hasn't been taken down yet so, since it's a topic I find unusually interesting, I thought 'why not'?


Assuming TDKR gets a China release (which TDK didn't) there's little reason to believe that the international box office won't increase for this film. $500m from overseas shouldn't be too much of a problem, especially with the ever expanding markets in the 4 years that have passed since 2008. In fact, if it's a really well-received film, $600m could be in play.


The question, of course, is how will domestic fare. I don't subscribe to the whole 'TDK only made a lot of money because Ledger died' mind-set. That's ridiculous. What I do believe is that the Batman-Joker dynamic is wildly popular, and without that it'll be interesting to see if the almost unprecedented anticipation (and, hopefully, quality) of TDKR is enough to offset the lack of Joker and push it to $500m+ domestically.

So. It's a while away, but what do you think?

Well, in all honesty I think you said all that needs to be said at this point.

Marketing this film is going to have a very, very big affect on how this all plays out. Moreso than usual. Here's hoping they're smart about it and do something really cool to hype this up to the general audience. They have an amazing opportunity here.

We'll have a better idea when we get a bit closer.

 

[papie]

I think it's going to surpass TDK. Christopher Nolan has become a sensation I suspect.

As long as the buzz is the same as TDK and Inception it'll rock.

 

[obin_gam]

I was soooo close in my prediction for what tdk would get on its first weekend (I said 154 mil) so I got to think real hard now :P

I say 168 mil. for the Friday-Saturday-Sunday weekend.

 

[hatebox]

Whatever happens in the long run, TDKR will beat TDK's opening weekend figure. Hype and 4 years' inflation will see to that.

 

[The Riddler]

it will not beat tdk's numbers for overall gross, but like said above, weekend and single day records are at risk of being toppled.

 

[jmc]

A tad early for this thread me thinks.

 

[hatebox]

A tad early for this thread me thinks.

Tell that to the boxofficemojo forum - their thread on TDKR is already over 200 pages.

But anyway, I stand by my opening sentence as a qualifier. I guess I'm just curious if, this far in advance, anyone thinks it has a real shot at TDK numbers domestically.

 

[jmc]

200 pages? Jesus.

 

[BigEggo]

A tad early for this thread me thinks.

that seems to be a recurring theme around here.

 

[jmc]

Well lets just say Rises is gonna make a crap load of cash.

 

[namtaB]

dont think itll beat TDK to be honest.i think theres little doubt that heaths death before the films release generated a certain morbid curiosity in people who otherwise might not have gone to see it.im not saying thats the reason it was a massive hit-im just saying it contributed somewhat,this kind of thing is human nature.

im expecting maybe 100 mill off TDK overall.

Ledger's death definitely added to the massive opening weekend. But I think its sustained BO legs were a product of his performance and the film itself.

I don't think TDKR will surpass TDK's BO. But you never know, it just might.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

It will surpass TDK's international numbers quite easily.

 

[joker1524]

inception almost ranked in 900 million did it not? and that film wasnt even based off batman so i think TDKR will do even better than both inception and TDK...Nolan is a well known name now and when people see the posters that say "from the director of The Dark Knight and Inception" people will go see it...also not to mention that this is a batman film and it should do very well regardless

 

[TheBatman072]

One. Gillion. Dollars.

 

[db85usa]

Because of Nolan's success with TDK and Inception, I think TDKR will do well financially and may even get close to TDK's numbers but it's early yet. If there's an awesome viral campaign like TDK had then maybe. I do think much of TDK's success was because it had Batman and Joker in it so it will be tough to compete with that. The history between those two characters is unmatched.

 

[jmc]

Hence why Catwoman needs to play a big part in the advertising. After Joker she's probably the most famous of the villains.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I'm 99% positive on this. It will make less domestically than the last but make substantially more overseas than what it made last time.

I think overall it will even out to where it makes close to what TDK made in global revenue.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

The Dark Knight Rises and the Star Trek sequel will be the juggernauts next summer.

 

[Jokers_Wild]

Does anybody think that the viral marketing for TDK really made any difference? I really don't think so. It was the quality of the film that made me go back and see it more times. I think TDKR will make a HUGE amount if the buzz and reviews are good (which I'm confident they will be), even if they don't do viral marketing for it.

 

[db85usa]

Don't kid yourself. The viral marketing made a huge difference. It helped market the film more and added extra hype and TDK had massive hype after BB and really lived up to it. How often can you say that about a movie?

 

[Frontier]

I think it's a question of marketing and buzz at this point.

TDK brought in a lot of people who otherwise might not have bothered with a Batman film. My sister hates such things; but because of Heath Ledger, she was desperate to see it, and even saw it twice. She's interested to see the next one, despite the fact she isn't a batman or comic fan, though she's not keen on the casting thus far, lol.

Point being, TDK opened Batman up to a lot more people. Inception opened Nolan up to a lot more people, and cemented his position as a powerful and bankable director beyond the Bat.

It's WB film to kill, to be blunt. They have the extra audience from TDK, the extra audience from Inception. It's up to them and how they sell this film as to whether or not it's a success.

I think, in the end, it'll fall short of the levels of TDK in domestic, because TDK was a phenomenon. I also expect it to do a good length business, like BB did -- that even though it might not hold in the high ranks for as long as TDK did (it held no.1 for what, 5 weeks?) it'll hold on longer in steady fashion like BB did.

 

[Colonel Kurtz]

Secretly kill off Bale and this puppy will bury those blue cat ****s.

 

[KRIM]

Don't kid yourself. The viral marketing made a huge difference. It helped market the film more and added extra hype and TDK had massive hype after BB and really lived up to it. How often can you say that about a movie?

It was geared towards the fanbase. I'd hardly say it accounted for any of the mainstream appeal as most weren't even aware of it. Virals are a niche market. It may do well to hype up the fans, but those same people were already going to buy the tickets anyway.