The Dark Knight Rises The Box Office Thread

[Green Day]

I see overseas increase but a decrease domestically.
for a safe bet.
overseas 490m
Domestically 420m
910m worldwide
but I can see this happening
Overseas 530m
Domestically 470m
1B worldwide.

 

[aandfrugby25]

Im sorry but if you dont think TDK was helped by Heathes death then your crazy. Sure being a great movie is what gave it awesome long term sales. But generating origional buzz was helped by his death.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Im sorry but if you dont think TDK was helped by Heathes death then your crazy. Sure being a great movie is what gave it awesome long term sales. But generating origional buzz was helped by his death.

To everyone who brings this up while yes there is some basis. Something TDK lacked that TDKR will have will be a "big name" director attached.

Nolan was not nearly as known in the mainstream pre-tdk and inception. Nolan has positioned himself as one of the better known directors around now. The nolan name is now very big in the mainstream and has an attraction that goes beyond just fans of batman.

 

[protoctista]

People making predictions for The Dark Knight Rises' success seem to have this problem of considering the film in isolation. Yes, there's lots of reasons for people to see this film - but what gave The Dark Knight such considerable, extended box office success is that people went to see it over, and over and over again. I know plenty of normal or even cinema-apathetic people who saw it twice - which is a big step to take in terms of box office (i.e. extending repeat retail outside of the hardcore fanbase).

There are many reasons why The Dark Knight was able to do this, and that the Dark Knight Rises will struggle to.


Firstly competition against the Dark Knight was surprisingly - and serendipitously - light. Iron Man had had big success, sure, but a two whole months earlier - and (here's where luck factors in) was a fun, light-hearted family film. Nothing like The Dark Knight, and arguably the former was conducive to the latter's success on the basis of their tonal difference.

Other 'big' films had been dissapointing/unsuccessful;
-Speed Racer (big flop)
-Narnia film (dissapointment for Disney)
-Indiana Jones (critically dissapointing)

Then, through June, you had a whole load of stupid, quirky and/or poor movies: The Happening, Get Smart, The Incredible Hulk, Wanted, Hellboy

And out of a string of dissapointing/dumb movies you suddenly get a big, confident, and dark, ballsy movie with intelligence and momentum. The competition not only failed to materialise, but - in my opinion - contributed to the success of the Dark Knight.



Compare that to the forecast for 2012, and the 'perfect storm scenario' seems far less likely to arise (sorry, pun really not intended at all).

We know that in the extended 'summer' period for blockbuster movies (i.e. May through to the end of July) there will be:

1) The Avengers
2) The Star Trek Sequel
3) The Amazing Spider-man
4) MIB:3
5) There will probably be a Pirates of the Caribbean movie somewhere if the next one is successful this summer

Plus potential curve-balls like Madagascar 3, Ice-Age 3 (saturating the kid/family market???) and possibly Battleship.


The first 3 are going to do HUGE business - (1 and 3 because they have to, Star Trek because it will be riding on a similar surprise cross-demographic-appeal to Batman Begins). I think MIB could do significant business based on the nostalgia factor and because, by the time it rolls around, it'll be offering something quite different from the others. And if there's a Pirates film (which I'm going to bet there will be), it has a guaranteed box office.

Now, there's no doubt that the biggest contender in amongst all that is the Dark Knight. But to think that your average/cinema-apathetic audience is going to be sucked into repeat business when there are lots of other films that they'll be seeing - would be surely an unfounded prediction.

 

[lukey37]

Except TDKR is the last movie of those listed movies to be released. People will have already seen The Avengers, Star Trek, Spiderman by the time TDKR is out.

 

[protoctista]

Except TDKR is the last movie of those listed movies to be released. People will have already seen The Avengers, Star Trek, Spiderman by the time TDKR is out.

Exactly. The average family will have been hit by a whole slew of high profile, high-expectation movies in the space of a couple of months. I wasn't suggesting that this will preclude anyone from seeing The Dark Knight; but what I'm saying is that *the average family/cinema goer* is unlikely to THEN going to go on to watch The Dark Knight repeatedly. Especially if the first few movies have the kind of appeal that encourages repeat viewing.

What I'm describing is, for the summer of 2012, there will be a culture of high-interest movies, all within the space a few months. You cannot expect that the entire breadth of the movie-going public (which is what The Dark Knight managed to reach out to) will show the same amount of (financial) commitment to 1 film, if across that whole space of time there are lots of other films that will be drawing their business (which is unlike what happened in summer 08 for TDK).

Suppose that the Avengers does somewhere close to a billion at the worldwide box office (not far-fetched considering Iron Man 2, a critically lukewarm movie, did 622 million on the interest generate by just 1 movie). Then suppose that The Amazing Spider-Man does as well as the first spider-man movie (again, close to a billion) - and that the Star Trek sequel increases its business on the first movie by 30% (another half a billion). Then if Men in Black does an equal box office performance to the last movie (400 million) - do you really expect the Dark Knight to knock it out of the park, and rake in another billion?

Maybe it will. Maybe it'll be the best year for movie box office of all time; all I'm suggesting is that, from the 2 year prospective, it doesn't look set for a 'perfect storm' unless all the movies mentioned above do unexpectedly badly. The studios for The Avengers, The Star Trek Sequel, and the Amazing Spider-man. Plus the Pirates movie - are ALL going to be looking for the perfect storm scenario. They can't all get it; and even if the Dark Knight sequel is the most likely out of all of them to do exceptional box office, it's very unlikely it'll be a 'perfect storm' - because the conditions just aren't the same as it was in 08.

 

[blueblazer2]

Im sorry but if you dont think TDK was helped by Heathes death then your crazy. Sure being a great movie is what gave it awesome long term sales. But generating origional buzz was helped by his death.

Besides the Dark Knight none of Heath Ledger movies never did that Great at the Box Office . Most of the movies that he was in were flops besides The Patriot and Brokeback Mountian.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Exactly. The average family will have been hit by a whole slew of high profile, high-expectation movies in the space of a couple of months. I wasn't suggesting that this will preclude anyone from seeing The Dark Knight; but what I'm saying is that *the average family/cinema goer* is unlikely to THEN going to go on to watch The Dark Knight repeatedly. Especially if the first few movies have the kind of appeal that encourages repeat viewing.

What I'm describing is, for the summer of 2012, there will be a culture of high-interest movies, all within the space a few months. You cannot expect that the entire breadth of the movie-going public (which is what The Dark Knight managed to reach out to) will show the same amount of (financial) commitment to 1 film, if across that whole space of time there are lots of other films that will be drawing their business (which is unlike what happened in summer 08 for TDK).

Suppose that the Avengers does somewhere close to a billion at the worldwide box office (not far-fetched considering Iron Man 2, a critically lukewarm movie, did 622 million on the interest generate by just 1 movie). Then suppose that The Amazing Spider-Man does as well as the first spider-man movie (again, close to a billion) - and that the Star Trek sequel increases its business on the first movie by 30% (another half a billion). Then if Men in Black does an equal box office performance to the last movie (400 million) - do you really expect the Dark Knight to knock it out of the park, and rake in another billion?

Maybe it will. Maybe it'll be the best year for movie box office of all time; all I'm suggesting is that, from the 2 year prospective, it doesn't look set for a 'perfect storm' unless all the movies mentioned above do unexpectedly badly. The studios for The Avengers, The Star Trek Sequel, and the Amazing Spider-man. Plus the Pirates movie - are ALL going to be looking for the perfect storm scenario. They can't all get it; and even if the Dark Knight sequel is the most likely out of all of them to do exceptional box office, it's very unlikely it'll be a 'perfect storm' - because the conditions just aren't the same as it was in 08.

I think on both those figures your off. The avengers is huge in the mind of comic fans but to the average movie goer right now its just iron man and some other superheroes. I don't think it will blow away iron man 2 in box office, probably do better but not as much as some might think, also depends on how well thor and cap armerica do.

As for the TAS i really think this movie is an under dog, the spider-man brand is somewhat tainted and there's nowhere near the clamor for a spider-man movie as there was pre the 1st one. The movie was green-lit with a reported $80 million budget so even the studio seems hesitant. Not to mention possible re-boot/sequel confusion ala TIH.

 

[Paste Pot Pete]

Completely random box office guess -

$420 million domestic
$400 million international
________________
$820 million total

SEE YOU NEXT YEAR!

 

[Knight Rise]

Avengers wont do that well, its hype has been going on for too long. its kind of annoying.

 

[Green Day]

Avengers wont do that well, its hype has been going on for too long. its kind of annoying.

I agree and I think people tend to forget that its not Iron Man, CA, Thor and Hulk, fans all coming together to see this movie. It is all the same fanbase, there will not be some magical jump for 317m to 500m. Assuming Thor or CA do not make 500m. Iron Man will most likely be the highest super hero in the avengers, so the gross will be around the same as Iron Man's gross.

 

[moe]

Completely random box office guess -

$420 million domestic
$400 million international
________________
$820 million total

SEE YOU NEXT YEAR!

how is tdkr going to make less than inception?

 

[moe]

Exactly. The average family will have been hit by a whole slew of high profile, high-expectation movies in the space of a couple of months. I wasn't suggesting that this will preclude anyone from seeing The Dark Knight; but what I'm saying is that *the average family/cinema goer* is unlikely to THEN going to go on to watch The Dark Knight repeatedly. Especially if the first few movies have the kind of appeal that encourages repeat viewing.

What I'm describing is, for the summer of 2012, there will be a culture of high-interest movies, all within the space a few months. You cannot expect that the entire breadth of the movie-going public (which is what The Dark Knight managed to reach out to) will show the same amount of (financial) commitment to 1 film, if across that whole space of time there are lots of other films that will be drawing their business (which is unlike what happened in summer 08 for TDK).

Suppose that the Avengers does somewhere close to a billion at the worldwide box office (not far-fetched considering Iron Man 2, a critically lukewarm movie, did 622 million on the interest generate by just 1 movie). Then suppose that The Amazing Spider-Man does as well as the first spider-man movie (again, close to a billion) - and that the Star Trek sequel increases its business on the first movie by 30% (another half a billion). Then if Men in Black does an equal box office performance to the last movie (400 million) - do you really expect the Dark Knight to knock it out of the park, and rake in another billion?

Maybe it will. Maybe it'll be the best year for movie box office of all time; all I'm suggesting is that, from the 2 year prospective, it doesn't look set for a 'perfect storm' unless all the movies mentioned above do unexpectedly badly. The studios for The Avengers, The Star Trek Sequel, and the Amazing Spider-man. Plus the Pirates movie - are ALL going to be looking for the perfect storm scenario. They can't all get it; and even if the Dark Knight sequel is the most likely out of all of them to do exceptional box office, it's very unlikely it'll be a 'perfect storm' - because the conditions just aren't the same as it was in 08.

you forget one thing... people are not going to be like "we went to the movies 3 weeks ago... lets not go again!"...

TDKR is going to have buzz, word of mouth and most of all... if you enjoyed TDK, you probably want to know how it ends.

so by your reasoning... it may not have the 160 million opening... but in the long run... its going to make a lot of money...

you should just wait till a nolan supervised trailer drops... that man knows how to cut it... Begins, TDK and Inception all have incredible trailers.... it made anyone that watched it go " i gotta see that"

 

[Paste Pot Pete]

how is tdkr going to make less than inception?

Inception made $60 million more than TDK in international box office. TDKR's international take will probably be even less, and won't be buoyed by the insane domestic take of TDK.

Don't worry, that's still a lot of cheddar.

 

[Conebone69]

Rises will definitely make a **** ton of money

Im guessing:

Domestic - $550,000,000

Worldwide - $1.5 billion

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's honestly too early to really say but I think that it will make less. The Joker is Batman's most popular villain and TDK had the perfect storm of good advertisement and free non-stop advertisement from CNN and MSNBC about Ledger's death.

I don't really give a f**k if somebody disagrees with me about the Ledger thing because I do think it helped the movie for the reasons mentioned above. It had nothing to do with Ledger being a B-lister before his death. The movie got tons of attention that it wouldn't have gotten if Ledger hadn't overdosed and made the whole thing a goulish James Dean style tragedy that everyone just had to see. I'm sure it still would have been a huge hit with him alive but a billion dollar film? Not a chance in hell.

Catwoman is a popular character and will give the movie alot of interest so Rises should be a hit but I don't see a billion dollars. 880 to 960mil maybe, because people loved TDK and 5 years of ticket price inflation. I would say it has no chance at a billion because that would be a risky bet to make when it has 5 years of ticket price inflation on it's side but I only give it a 50/50 shot. It should break the opening weekend record but it's going to be hella frontloaded.

Domestic: 455mil

International: 460mil

Total: 915mil.

 

[souvlaki]

Somewhere around 450 million domestic. Very respectable number, but not more than TDK. I'd love to see this beat TDK but that would be like capturing lightning in a bottle twice.

 

[souvlaki]

The first 3 are going to do HUGE business - (1 and 3 because they have to, Star Trek because it will be riding on a similar surprise cross-demographic-appeal to Batman Begins).

This makes no sense. Why do they have to exactly? They don't have to, and I'd argue neither will do as well as people expect. Also, all of these movies open before Dark Knight. The only movie you listed here that poses any sort of threat is Spider-Man, and I really don't think the movie poses that serious of a threat to DKR, especially given that it opens two weeks before. If any movie is going to be affected it's Spider-Man.

 

[moe]

It's honestly too early to really say but I think that it will make less. The Joker is Batman's most popular villain and TDK had the perfect storm of good advertisement and free non-stop advertisement from CNN and MSNBC about Ledger's death.

I don't really give a f**k if somebody disagrees with me about the Ledger thing because I do think it helped the movie for the reasons mentioned above. It had nothing to do with Ledger being a B-lister before his death. The movie got tons of attention that it wouldn't have gotten if Ledger hadn't overdosed and made the whole thing a goulish James Dean style tragedy that everyone just had to see. I'm sure it still would have been a huge hit with him alive but a billion dollar film? Not a chance in hell.

Catwoman is a popular character and will give the movie alot of interest so Rises should be a hit but I don't see a billion dollars. 880 to 960mil maybe, because people loved TDK and 5 years of ticket price inflation. I would say it has no chance at a billion because that would be a risky bet to make when it has 5 years of ticket price inflation on it's side but I only give it a 50/50 shot. It should break the opening weekend record but it's going to be hella frontloaded.

Domestic: 455mil

International: 460mil

Total: 915mil.

but TDKR will get a boast from TDK... people are going to want to see what they do to top heath's joker... even thou nolan will probably make it so there is no pressure on hardy to do that (making the script more action oriented).. it will still be in people's mind...

plus Nolan is now a name people know... that will also help... "From the Director of Inception" is going to get people's attention that enjoyed Inception but didn't see TDK.

 

[moe]

Inception made $60 million more than TDK in international box office. TDKR's international take will probably be even less, and won't be buoyed by the insane domestic take of TDK.

Don't worry, that's still a lot of cheddar.

but TDK suffered from not having a China release... you have think about that as well...

Inception made $68 million in china alone... if TDK was released... you don't think it makes half that? i would think it def makes around 40-45 million at least in china...

TDKR will get a boast from Chinese release.. and i think if it isn't as glum as TDK.. it will do better in Japan (where TDK made 14 million and inception 40 million)... Japanese had issue with joker killing without reason and all that crap... they want their villian to be emo with feelings and cry about his actions and ****... Bane will probably appeal more to them as he is more Manga/Anime style than joker... plus Catwoman... they love women dressed as cats... lmao...

so, i see TDKR beating TDK quite easily over-seas... China should help it get an additional 50 million or so... and Japan should come around with a woman dressed as a cat.

 

[KRIM]

TDKR will get a boast from Chinese release.. and i think if it isn't as glum as TDK.. it will do better in Japan (where TDK made 14 million and inception 40 million)... Japanese had issue with joker killing without reason and all that crap... they want their villian to be emo with feelings and cry about his actions and ****... Bane will probably appeal more to them as he is more Manga/Anime style than joker... plus Catwoman... they love women dressed as cats... lmao...

So much to say...must resist...

 

[RoughNTumble]

So much to say...must resist...

Why did TDK do bad in japan IYO? just curious

 

[KRIM]

I would presume it's primary a cultural thing. American superheroes in general just haven't blown up as much as in the Western world.

 

[moe]

So much to say...must resist...

it was stated in an interview with several japanese directors... i watch enough anime to see why the joker would not appeal to them... he gave no motive other than to simply see chaos ensue... that is never the case with japanese media... they want a back-story, motivations and goals behind the villians.

but if i am wrong, inform me.

 

[KRIM]

Well then clearly people haven't been paying much attention. This isn't the thread to discuss it, but Joker had plenty of motivation and clear goals to achieve throughout that story. Not even in subtext (though there were a few instances), but right in the dialog. It's hard to miss.