The Dark Knight Rises The Box Office Thread

[Tony Stark]

BJ & KJ knows whats good

For all the folks doubting whether Batman can compete with The Avengers at the box office, take a moment to recall the lessons of history.

The year was 1988. Light weight comedian Michael Keaton had been cast in the title role of BATMAN, a crime fighting superhero. Arthouse weirdo Tim Burton was going to direct. For some random reason, Hollywood icon Jack Nicholson had agreed to play the Joker, but only because of an outrageous payday. The movie was set to open the weekend after GHOSTBUSTERS 2, the first sequel to one of the most popular and box office successful movies of all time, GHOSTBUSTERS. At the critics, called it a bad business decision. Batman had poor buzz as is, opening a week after a film sure to break records would be financial suicide. But Warner Brothers, the studio distributing the film, has few options. July would belong to it's other summer tentpole, LETHAL WEAPON 2, the sequel to their 1987 box office hit. For as risky as Batman seemed, Lethal Weapon 2 offered some stability. They were going to keep that as far away from competition as possible.

But what about May? The start of summer, Memorial Day, was booked. The third INDIANA JONES movie was due to open then as well. The final film of the incredibly popular series was to feature international super star SEAN CONNERY as Indiana Jones father! Between Indiana Jones, Ghostbusters 2, Lethal Weapon 2, and Back to the Future 3, it was a summer of sequels. As a New York Times columnist noted in February of 1989,



http://www.nytimes.com/1989/02/05/movies/film-batman-battles-for-big-money.html

Indeed, Batman's big screen debut seemed like it might take a backseat to sequels to already thriving franchise as March of 1989 began. But that was before THE trailer.



From the moment the trailer was released, it was over. It didn't matter how popular Indiana Jones was, or that he (supposably) would never be on the big screen again. It was irrelevant how popular the last Ghostbusters was. For the dollars those franchises had already raked in, for all the fans clamoring to see Bill Murray making wise cracks at ghosts once again, or to see Harrison Ford and Sean Connerys bickering as they rode into the sunset, neither of those two films had what BATMAN had. The Caped Crusader himself.

In 1966, the phenomenon known as 'Batmania' swept the nation, making interest in the character reach such a fever pitch that Batman labeled socks were best sellers. In 1989, unsuspecting movie goers and film buffs began the year expecting BATMAN to play a prominent, but SUPPORTING role, in the 1989 film landscape. But as soon as the footage broke, there was no question who would be the summers true star. And reality is, it was always going to be that way. 1966. 1989. 1992. 1995. 2008. Batmania is a phenomenon which few brands can inspire. In 1989, Batmania took over the USA like the plague.

As Memorial day came, Indiana Jones did, in fact, break records. It's 29.3 million dollar 3-Day weekend haul was the biggest of all time. 2 weeks later, Ghostbusters 2 opened. That, too, broke records, as everybody had expected. 29.5 million, a hair over Indiana Jones. The following week? Batman. What happened, everybody knows. Despite the previous weekends #1 film opening at all time high, Batman would DESTROY the week old opening weekend record, grossing an ASTOUNDING 42.5 million, crushing the old record by over 37% (that would be like TDKR opening $290 million after Avengers did $207). That type of money, in that short period of time, was believed to have been literally impossible. Batman proved them wrong. In the end, Batman would gross 60 million more than Indiana Jones, and twice as much as Ghostbusters 2.

What, is the moral of this story?

Never underestimate the power of Batman. Outside of Star Wars, there is no other brand in pop culture which has proven throughout his history to be as bankable as The Dark Knight. When quality is assured, people have, and will continue to, show up droves. Even when Batman Begins opened small, the people did come. Not all at once, but over time. If they didn't make it to the theater, they certainly made it to their couch to watch the film on T.V. When Batman returned to theaters in 2008, it was a show stopping, pop culture event. Audiences turned out in record numbers on opening weekend, but they did not stop there. They kept coming. Not only did The Dark Knight open bigger than any movie ever before, but it had incredible box office legs. The people couldn't stay away. They kept coming back for more, and told everybody they knew.

Now, we have the sequel to the greatest, most popular, and commercially successful Batman product of all time. It is the final film of the Nolan era, an era marked with unprecedented commercial success and critical acclaim. The only thing that is certain, surrounding The Dark Knight's impending box office take, is that there is NO limit to high it can.

Some brand follow the standard, other brands make it. Make no mistke about it- it does not matter what the Avengers, or any other movie makes. The Dark Knight WILL rise to top the of the record books when he opens, you can count on that. Batmania cometh

Why do I get the feeling you wrote that wearing you Batman pajamas.

BTW, Back to the Future 3 was released in summer of '90, not '89. BTTF2 came out in November of '89.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Why do I get the feeling you wrote that wearing you Batman pajamas.

BTW, Back to the Future 3 was released in summer of '90, not '89. BTTF2 came out in November of '89.

He kinda has a point though. TDKR is already being underestimated by a few sections of the media. Don't forget, TDKR came into this year as the most anticipated movie of the year in most polls, and Batman has held the OW record four times. Who says it can't happen again?

I, myself, won't be paying attention to the numbers when the film comes out until a month passes, but it's not impossible. Batman is huge in this market.

 

[lililatigresse]

Why do I get the feeling you wrote that wearing you Batman pajamas.

BTW, Back to the Future 3 was released in summer of '90, not '89. BTTF2 came out in November of '89.

Even if he did, why do you care?

Shouldn't you be watching the Avengers for the fifth time right now?!

 

[Fenrir]

Why do I get the feeling you wrote that wearing you Batman pajamas.

Shouldn't be a problem to anyone, unless of course you were wearing Marvel pajamas yourself when you read his post, in the case of which the burn is understandable. No need to get all condescending with the rolleye smileys. Excel's post isn't any more outrageous than a lot of the stuff that is being posted on The Avengers board right now.

 

[Doctor Jones]

This isn't a competition. Nor should it be. TDKR will be as successful just as Avengers is.

But of course, by the end of the summer, these two will be constantly compared in the most immature ways possible. This is apples and oranges.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

This isn't a competition. Nor should it be. TDKR will be as successful just as Avengers is.

But of course, by the end of the summer, these two will be constantly compared in the most immature ways possible. This is apples and oranges.

All I hope for is a fantastic ending to series. I don't care if it rakes in 300 million WW.

Just give me what I want Nolan! You hear me!

 

[Dragon_316ca]

Tony also ******** on the number of trailer views TDKR have gotten.

Dude, just be glad Avengers made over $1 Billion WW.

 

[Tony Stark]

Tony also ******** on the number of trailer views TDKR have gotten.

Dude, just be glad Avengers made over $1 Billion WW.

grow up.

 

[Tony Stark]

This isn't a competition. Nor should it be. TDKR will be as successful just as Avengers is.

But of course, by the end of the summer, these two will be constantly compared in the most immature ways possible. This is apples and oranges.

Pretty much this ^

 

[Travesty]

What, is the moral of this story?

Never underestimate the power of Batman. Outside of Star Wars, there is no other brand in pop culture which has proven throughout his history to be as bankable as The Dark Knight. When quality is assured, people have, and will continue to, show up droves. Even when Batman Begins opened small, the people did come. Not all at once, but over time. If they didn't make it to the theater, they certainly made it to their couch to watch the film on T.V. When Batman returned to theaters in 2008, it was a show stopping, pop culture event. Audiences turned out in record numbers on opening weekend, but they did not stop there. They kept coming. Not only did The Dark Knight open bigger than any movie ever before, but it had incredible box office legs. The people couldn't stay away. They kept coming back for more, and told everybody they knew.

Now, we have the sequel to the greatest, most popular, and commercially successful Batman product of all time. It is the final film of the Nolan era, an era marked with unprecedented commercial success and critical acclaim. The only thing that is certain, surrounding The Dark Knight's impending box office take, is that there is NO limit to high it can.

Some brand follow the standard, other brands make it. Make no mistke about it- it does not matter what the Avengers, or any other movie makes. The Dark Knight WILL rise to top the of the record books when he opens, you can count on that. Batmania cometh

I just don't see it beating out TDK's record. All of your analogies that harken back to B89 have already happened, and that was with TDK. TDKR will be a successful movie, but I'm just not seeing the same amount of buzz or anticipation that TDK or B89 once had. Sure, people will go see it, and it'll do good at the box office, but I'm just not seeing the same cultural phenomenon that both TDK and B89 shared, and what The Avengers is going through right now. If it happens to do better than TA, I'll be really surprised.

 

[Gamma Burst]

Where did you see the figure that the latest TDKR trailer was downloaded 24M times? I can't find anything that says that.

You can't find it anywhere because it doesn't exit.
The Avengers trailer still is the most downloaded.

 

[Miranda Fox]

grow up.

Great comeback. I should write that one down.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

You can't find it anywhere because it doesn't exit.
The Avengers trailer still is the most downloaded.

It wouldn't because the final trailer was released by WB online long before Apple made it available on their site (a week, I believe). TDKR beat The Avengers in viewings though.

 

[Tony Stark]

It wouldn't because the final trailer was released by WB online long before Apple made it available on their site (a week, I believe). TDKR beat The Avengers in viewings though.

No it didn't. That's talking about cumulative viewings which Avengers never released statistics for. Avengers held the iTunes download record (and still does). TDKR had higher You Tube viewings because the trailer wasn't available on iTunes until later. Apple was slow about getting the trailer up (who knows why), but you're comparing apples and oranges (no pun intended).

It doesn't matter much anyway, other than another pissing contest for Avengers vs. TDKR, which the mods have been pretty clear to stay away from.

I think both films have proven that they have a very wide audience.

 

[Reek]

Why do I get the feeling you wrote that wearing you Batman pajamas.
.

grow up.

 

[Gamma Burst]

No it didn't. That's talking about cumulative viewings which Avengers never released statistics for. Avengers held the iTunes download record (and still does). TDKR had higher You Tube viewings because the trailer wasn't available on iTunes until later. Apple was slow about getting the trailer up (who knows why), but you're comparing apples and oranges (no pun intended).

It doesn't matter much anyway, other than another pissing contest for Avengers vs. TDKR, which the mods have been pretty clear to stay away from.

I think both films have proven that they have a very wide audience.

True.
Anyway, I'm sure they'll come up with other excuses...

 

[floreairfoot]

$1billion worldwide, and the largest opening weekend.

Still, Tony Stark can't get any sleep. He knows what's coming.

 

[Reek]

It's not about money...It's about sending a message....Everything burns.

 

[FreeRadical]

Why do I get the feeling you wrote that wearing you Batman pajamas.

You don't have to be rude. I'm glad that The Avengers has done well (I've seen it twice), but the posters on TDKR sections of the boards have a right to be optimistic about the upcoming film.

I don't know why you are coming here and acting all defensive. The Avengers has good reviews and an excellent box office.

If you've come here to downplay TDKR hype, it won't work.

 

[Rocketman]

I've said this before and I'll say it again... I can feel it in my bones that this movie will be the biggest ever. I don't particularly care one way or another (I thought The Avengers was a delight), but just ignoring my own fanboyism, ignoring picking favorites, and just looking at the Box Office objectively... I think TDKR will win. It's a monster that nobody is fully appreciating yet, and this goes back months ago when I had discussions with Raganork8, way before The Avengers was released. TDKR is something quite different than what we're led to believe.

If you ignore The Avengers for a moment, look at TDKR not as a comparison to The Avengers but as a comparison to James Cameron instead.

You might not want to believe it, but consider this: Avatar was riding on the coattails of Titanic. Before you argue with me, just let that statement sizzle for a minute. Really think about that statement before you assume that it's all BS.

- Everybody thought Titanic was going to be a flop.
- Nobody, including the studio, had a lot of confidence in its potential success.
- James Cameron wasn't a household name.
- Titanic became the biggest movie of all time in 1997.
- James Cameron became a household name.

Now, imagine for a moment, just to play pretend, that Avatar is a sequel to Titanic. We all know that's not true, but just pretend it is for this argument.

- James Cameron hadn't made a movie in 13 years.
- James Cameron was still a household name because of Titanic.
- When Avatar was being promoted, it reminded everyone that it was "From the Director of Titanic."
- Avatar's ticket prices were raised significantly for 3D showings.
- Avatar became the biggest movie ever.

The fact that James Cameron's name alone sold Avatar to the mass public, proves to me that TDKR is much bigger than anyone is assuming.

- 13 years passed between Titanic and Avatar, and people still remembered.
- Only 4 years passed between TDK and TDKR, so people definitely remember.
- Avatar wasn't actually a sequel to Titanic.
- TDKR is a sequel to TDK, and it's completing a story that was already established.
- Avatar beat Titanic's B.O., which was the biggest movie ever.
- TDK was the second highest grossing movie EVER, right under Titanic.
- James Cameron was a household name when Avatar was being released.
- Christopher Nolan's name is being promoted in the TDKR trailers, and Nolan is a household name from TDK and Inception.

So, just imagining that Nolan and Cameron follow the same track record here, TDKR has a better chance at beating Avatar than Avatar had a chance at beating Titanic. That's just my opinion, but the evidence is there. And if that's true, then that also assumes (obviously) that TDKR has a better chance at beating TDK than Avatar had a chance at beating Titanic.

So, where The Avengers comes into all of this, I don't really know... but I have a feeling that it doesn't even have a dog in this fight. And that's not because I'm a DC fanboy (I'm not); I loved The Avengers. But TDKR as a box office animal is going to be something monstrous.

Granted, I'm bored, so I'm just typing away for my own amusement... but I think the Nolan/Cameron parallel is definitely relevant.

 

[bruised]

Let's hope it does well, and that the story is awesome too. Making a lot of money is fine, but really, Transformers made a lot of money too, but the movie sucked. I would rather it be an amazing story and movie, than breaking all box office records...

 

[Greens]

I think it definitely has a chance of beating TDK's numbers, but biggest movie ever? I don't know.

 

[Superhero 101]

I think TDKR will make about 1.4-1.8 billion total i mean this movie is gonna be huge!! if Avengers has already made 1.1 billion in 19 days and will end up around 1.3 billion imagine how much TDKR will make i mean Avengers wasn't even the most anticipated movie of the year and it's made so much imagine how much this movie which is the most anticipated movie of the year will make.

 

[Fenrir]

The biggest reason why TDK won't be the biggest film ever is that is simply isn't a crowd-pleaser like Cameron's films are. You have to give credit where it is due - Cameron has an instinct for how to connect with the lowest common denominator and that is why his films have such a large audience. He gives them a very simple story that is not difficult to understand or follow, his characters are not complex but they are definitely relatable and someone you'd root for, and finally, the kind of visual spectacle that is utterly unmatched in the business.

He has got the blockbuster formula down to a science but Nolan's approach is very different. He still makes movies that despite their bloated budgets and massive production values but still have a very art house sensibility to them. That is why TDKR is going to be absolutely massive but the highest grossing film ever? The jury's still out on that one.

 

[Excel]

Why do I get the feeling you wrote that wearing you Batman pajamas.

BTW, Back to the Future 3 was released in summer of '90, not '89. BTTF2 came out in November of '89.

The schedule was flipped about, though it is really irrelevant. And Bat pajamas, I wasn't in. A ration, logical state of mind, though? Yes.

I just don't see it beating out TDK's record. All of your analogies that harken back to B89 have already happened, and that was with TDK. TDKR will be a successful movie, but I'm just not seeing the same amount of buzz or anticipation that TDK or B89 once had. Sure, people will go see it, and it'll do good at the box office, but I'm just not seeing the same cultural phenomenon that both TDK and B89 shared, and what The Avengers is going through right now. If it happens to do better than TA, I'll be really surprised.

3 excellent trailers with huge mega hit movies. Casting announcement, new photo and trailer releases - all front, headline dominating news. Easily the most talked about film of the summer and year, and unanimously expected to be the years biggest hit.

The film is two months away, visible public buzz is slightly ahead of what anybody could dream up right now. We're not going to be feeling "Batmania" yet because the movie doesn't open for another ten weekends. Relating to your TDK comparison, the question is: "Is TDKR ahead of where TDK was, in terms of visible public buzz, 10 weeks prior to opening? The answer is an ear shattering YES, TDK had none of the accomplishments I just listed above. The trailers were very popular, but hardly show stopping outside of the film industry. Ledgers casting was the only noteworthy piece, and that was due to his role, nothing more. It was expected to compete or lose to Indiana Jones.

Now, TDK WAS the most talked about film heading summer, due to Ledgers death. But I would say TDKR is still ahead of it in that area, too.

You can't find it anywhere because it doesn't exit.
The Avengers trailer still is the most downloaded.

And King Kong's trailer was the most downloaded trailer of 2005, yet it finished 5th in gross. This seems like a silly way of measuring popularity, Twitter is the only real reliable viral source for tracking. TDKR has utterly dominated Twitter every time new information has come. The Avengers didn't have anything resembling the size of TDKRs social media presence until just before release.

Given how popular a topic it already is, I don't even wanna think abouthow many tweets and fb status's will revolve around TDKR by the time the damn movie actually opens. It will be several levels ahead of Avengers for certain.

I've said this before and I'll say it again... I can feel it in my bones that this movie will be the biggest ever. I don't particularly care one way or another (I thought The Avengers was a delight), but just ignoring my own fanboyism, ignoring picking favorites, and just looking at the Box Office objectively... I think TDKR will win. It's a monster that nobody is fully appreciating yet, and this goes back months ago when I had discussions with Raganork8, way before The Avengers was released. TDKR is something quite different than what we're led to believe.

If you ignore The Avengers for a moment, look at TDKR not as a comparison to The Avengers but as a comparison to James Cameron instead.

You might not want to believe it, but consider this: Avatar was riding on the coattails of Titanic. Before you argue with me, just let that statement sizzle for a minute. Really think about that statement before you assume that it's all BS.

- Everybody thought Titanic was going to be a flop.
- Nobody, including the studio, had a lot of confidence in its potential success.
- James Cameron wasn't a household name.
- Titanic became the biggest movie of all time in 1997.
- James Cameron became a household name.

Now, imagine for a moment, just to play pretend, that Avatar is a sequel to Titanic. We all know that's not true, but just pretend it is for this argument.

- James Cameron hadn't made a movie in 13 years.
- James Cameron was still a household name because of Titanic.
- When Avatar was being promoted, it reminded everyone that it was "From the Director of Titanic."
- Avatar's ticket prices were raised significantly for 3D showings.
- Avatar became the biggest movie ever.

The fact that James Cameron's name alone sold Avatar to the mass public, proves to me that TDKR is much bigger than anyone is assuming.

- 13 years passed between Titanic and Avatar, and people still remembered.
- Only 4 years passed between TDK and TDKR, so people definitely remember.
- Avatar wasn't actually a sequel to Titanic.
- TDKR is a sequel to TDK, and it's completing a story that was already established.
- Avatar beat Titanic's B.O., which was the biggest movie ever.
- TDK was the second highest grossing movie EVER, right under Titanic.
- James Cameron was a household name when Avatar was being released.
- Christopher Nolan's name is being promoted in the TDKR trailers, and Nolan is a household name from TDK and Inception.

So, just imagining that Nolan and Cameron follow the same track record here, TDKR has a better chance at beating Avatar than Avatar had a chance at beating Titanic. That's just my opinion, but the evidence is there. And if that's true, then that also assumes (obviously) that TDKR has a better chance at beating TDK than Avatar had a chance at beating Titanic.

So, where The Avengers comes into all of this, I don't really know... but I have a feeling that it doesn't even have a dog in this fight. And that's not because I'm a DC fanboy (I'm not); I loved The Avengers. But TDKR as a box office animal is going to be something monstrous.

Granted, I'm bored, so I'm just typing away for my own amusement... but I think the Nolan/Cameron parallel is definitely relevant.

I think the comparison works to an extent. TDK was not the world-conquering phenomenon TITANIC was, but the word of mouth, among the ENORMOUS audience who saw, was incredible. Nolan, like Cameron, is becoming a brand. Nolan is not a household name, but he does hold a great deal of sway among the internet. INCEPTION is a ridiculous concept that was hard to sell, yet people bought it's legitimacy instantly due to Nolan's credibility. The film grossed over 800 million ww, more than anybody would have ever expected.

Make no mistake, like everything in life, the media attention- the tone, the amount - dictate a huge part of a films success. Its FREE ADVERTISING. If it is positive, even better. Batman Begins had verrrrry little of this.

The media are the biggest band wagon drivers in the world. They want whats popular, or going to be popular. SO, when they see CHRIS NOLAN, they think "TDK - the movie of the decade from 2000-2009. INCEPTION - a spell binding mega hit". When they see CN attached to a movie, the media attaches the precedent of success. What happens? Said movie - in this case, TDKR - takes on certain status in the eyes of the media. TDKR is that beauty pageant winner every guy knows about, who is also supposably incredibly down to Earth and nice. The way the average audience fundamentally THINKS about TDKR changes, due to this type of media presentation. The media is treating this movie like a big deal, so surely it is.

Buzz and hype tend to be contagious. TDKR visible public buzz and hype is LEVELS ahead of where THE DARK KNIGHT and AVENGERS were two months before release. The medias acting like the movie is one of the most anticipated ever, and guess what: they're right.

No it didn't. That's talking about cumulative viewings which Avengers never released statistics for. Avengers held the iTunes download record (and still does). TDKR had higher You Tube viewings because the trailer wasn't available on iTunes until later. Apple was slow about getting the trailer up (who knows why), but you're comparing apples and oranges (no pun intended).

It doesn't matter much anyway, other than another pissing contest for Avengers vs. TDKR, which the mods have been pretty clear to stay away from.

I think both films have proven that they have a very wide audience.

I think this is accurate. I will add in though, as stated earlier - social media is the best tracking source.

Just think about it for a second. Everyone saw how popular AVENGERS was on twitter opening weekend. Millions just gushing about the movie. It was what, the 3rd most popular trending topic on twittier for its opening week?

TDKR trailer was 5th.

The TRAILER.

Just think about it.

It will be one of those things like "Im on FB, everyone is going to see batman at midnight" or "there are 200000 tweets about how good batman is, wanna see it?".

Again, TDKR is just on entirely different levels than anything thats opened in a while.