Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]399537[/split]

 

[eddy]

How much is this puppy going to make?

I say 400 millionish domestic. 900 millionish worldwide.

I'm trying to make this a poll but I'm not sure how to add the options.

Never mind. Figured it out.

 

[jacobed]

It'll be a huge issue

 

[Lightsplasher]

How much is this puppy going to make?

I say 400 millionish domestic. 900 millionish worldwide.

900 millions worldwide would be great but Avengers final worldwide gross is of something like 888 millions . So I'll say it can earn at least 600 millions worldwide . But who knows , everything is possible

 

[redfirebird2008]

Should make $375m or more in the domestic market and probably $800m overseas. It has a pretty good chance at $1.2 billion worldwide.

 

[Liam_H]

Edit: nvm, forgot what happens when new threads start.

 

[KangConquers]

Should make $375m or more in the domestic market and probably $800m overseas. It has a pretty good chance at $1.2 billion worldwide.

Probably more like $475 M.

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

How do you guys figure that IM3 is gonna match Avengers foreign gross? not trolling, just curious..

Hell, i want this movie to be a huge success, but matching TA box office seems like a tall order...for any movie

 

[Liam_H]

Because of its current performance right now. Its not gonna match TA in overseas or WW gross but it is on track to hit $700-800 million leading to $1.1-1.2 billion WW.

 

[Xeno]

It'll be a huge issue

Wishing doesn't make things so.

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

Because of its current performance right now. Its not gonna match TA in overseas or WW gross but it is on track to hit $700-800 million leading to $1.1-1.2 billion WW.

Ah, i see!...so, a promising start for marvel's second phase then

Financially...AND critically!

 

[Mr. Dent]

Probably more like $475 M.

475m is too high. It'll be on the lower end of 400m.

 

[KangConquers]

475m is too high. It'll be on the lower end of 400m.

Well let's look at past MCU multipliers.

Iron Man- 3.21
The Incredible Hulk- 2.43
Iron Man 2- 2.43
Thor- 2.75
Captain America- 2.715
Avengers- 3.00

That puts the average multiplier right at 2.75, which would be $467.5 M off of a $170 M opening weekend. If it has Iron Man 2's low multiplier, then yes, it could potentially do only $413 M.


The range for this film based on the studios past successes is basically $400-500 M, and the whole range is game.

 

[darthcoolness3]

I am thinking it will do worst than Avengers and Iron Man 2 since it has a new director and everything.

 

[KangConquers]

I am thinking it will do worst than Avengers and Iron Man 2 since it has a new director and everything.

It will outgross Iron Man 2 worldwide tomorrow.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Well let's look at past MCU multipliers.

Iron Man- 3.21
The Incredible Hulk- 2.43
Iron Man 2- 2.43
Thor- 2.75
Captain America- 2.715
Avengers- 3.00

That puts the average multiplier right at 2.75, which would be $467.5 M off of a $170 M opening weekend. If it has Iron Man 2's low multiplier, then yes, it could potentially do only $413 M.


The range for this film based on the studios past successes is basically $400-500 M, and the whole range is game.

Hmm, $475 just sounds really high. I'd say $435m.

I am thinking it will do worst than Avengers and Iron Man 2 since it has a new director and everything.

These comments are always funny.

 

[KangConquers]

Hmm, $475 just sounds really high. I'd say $435m.


These comments are always funny.

Well, when you have the second highest opening ever, "really high" isn't out of the question.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think IM3 will be a little more front loaded than Thor since it's a sequel.

Should still cross 400 m domestic though.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It depends on how it holds up this weekend. I'm not predicting a final number until I get those weekend numbers. For all we know it dropped hard today.

No matter what the word of mouth is I don't see it doing much better than Iron Man 2 legs wise because it is a second sequel.

Still the movie is a raving success and it's going to do better than the last film.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Probably more like $475 M.

Not likely unless it has WOM on par with Avengers. We will find out soon enough whether that is the case. I put $375m because a $170m opening should lock it for $375m, but there is no guarantee above that. It has a TON of competition coming up over the next month and a half. A lot more competition than IM2 dealt with. A lot more competition than the Avengers dealt with. And it is extremely flawed logic to compare a second sequel with franchise starters in terms of multipliers. Franchise starters are pretty much always less frontloaded than sequels.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The movie isn't a lock to do 170mil. I could see it going under 160mil if it plays out a certain way. If I had to make a guess I'd say 161-164mil.

I hope Deadline has some early Saturday numbers but when movies open this well those numbers aren't as accurate.

 

[redfirebird2008]

The movie isn't a lock to do 170mil. I could see it going under 160mil if it plays out a certain way. If I had to make a guess I'd say 161-164mil.

I hope Deadline has some early Saturday numbers but when movies open this well those numbers aren't as accurate.

Rth at BO.com will have the most accurate number, but he waits to post until very late at night when all the West Coast shows have already been accounted for.

 

[Iceman]

Wow, I would have been really impressed with $400m a few weeks ago! Hope the other Phase 2 films can see a good boost too.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Rth at BO.com will have the most accurate number, but he waits to post until very late at night when all the West Coast shows have already been accounted for.

Oh really? I'll check on that site then.

 

[Liam_H]

Who here has the over under on DH2 opening. Could be close.