Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Discussion in 'Iron Man' started by Thread Manager, May 4, 2013.

  1. Thread Manager Moderator

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    This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]399537[/split]
     
  2. eddy Make Mine Marvel

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    How much is this puppy going to make?

    I say 400 millionish domestic. 900 millionish worldwide.

    I'm trying to make this a poll but I'm not sure how to add the options.

    Never mind. Figured it out.
     
  3. jacobed Registered

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    It'll be a huge issue
     
  4. Lightsplasher Registered

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    900 millions worldwide would be great but Avengers final worldwide gross is of something like 888 millions . So I'll say it can earn at least 600 millions worldwide . But who knows , everything is possible :whatever:
     
  5. redfirebird2008 Registered

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    Should make $375m or more in the domestic market and probably $800m overseas. It has a pretty good chance at $1.2 billion worldwide.
     
  6. Liam_H Registered

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    Edit: nvm, forgot what happens when new threads start.
     
    #6 Liam_H, May 4, 2013
    Last edited: May 4, 2013
  7. KangConquers Purple Kang, Purple Kang

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    Probably more like $475 M.
     
  8. Paladin-Hoss Registered

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    How do you guys figure that IM3 is gonna match Avengers foreign gross? not trolling, just curious..

    Hell, i want this movie to be a huge success, but matching TA box office seems like a tall order...for any movie
     
  9. Liam_H Registered

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    Because of its current performance right now. Its not gonna match TA in overseas or WW gross but it is on track to hit $700-800 million leading to $1.1-1.2 billion WW.
     
  10. Xeno That's America's ass!

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    Wishing doesn't make things so.
     
  11. Paladin-Hoss Registered

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    Ah, i see!...so, a promising start for marvel's second phase then:yay:

    Financially...AND critically!
     
  12. Mr. Dent Registered

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    475m is too high. It'll be on the lower end of 400m.
     
  13. KangConquers Purple Kang, Purple Kang

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    Well let's look at past MCU multipliers.

    Iron Man- 3.21
    The Incredible Hulk- 2.43
    Iron Man 2- 2.43
    Thor- 2.75
    Captain America- 2.715
    Avengers- 3.00

    That puts the average multiplier right at 2.75, which would be $467.5 M off of a $170 M opening weekend. If it has Iron Man 2's low multiplier, then yes, it could potentially do only $413 M.


    The range for this film based on the studios past successes is basically $400-500 M, and the whole range is game.
     
    #13 KangConquers, May 4, 2013
    Last edited: May 4, 2013
  14. darthcoolness3 Registered

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    I am thinking it will do worst than Avengers and Iron Man 2 since it has a new director and everything.
     
  15. KangConquers Purple Kang, Purple Kang

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    It will outgross Iron Man 2 worldwide tomorrow.
     
  16. Mr. Dent Registered

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    Hmm, $475 just sounds really high. I'd say $435m.

    These comments are always funny.
     
  17. KangConquers Purple Kang, Purple Kang

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    Well, when you have the second highest opening ever, "really high" isn't out of the question.
     
  18. MessiahDecoy123 Psychological Anarchist

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    I think IM3 will be a little more front loaded than Thor since it's a sequel.

    Should still cross 400 m domestic though.
     
  19. I SEE SPIDEY Registered

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    It depends on how it holds up this weekend. I'm not predicting a final number until I get those weekend numbers. For all we know it dropped hard today.

    No matter what the word of mouth is I don't see it doing much better than Iron Man 2 legs wise because it is a second sequel.

    Still the movie is a raving success and it's going to do better than the last film.
     
  20. redfirebird2008 Registered

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    Not likely unless it has WOM on par with Avengers. We will find out soon enough whether that is the case. I put $375m because a $170m opening should lock it for $375m, but there is no guarantee above that. It has a TON of competition coming up over the next month and a half. A lot more competition than IM2 dealt with. A lot more competition than the Avengers dealt with. And it is extremely flawed logic to compare a second sequel with franchise starters in terms of multipliers. Franchise starters are pretty much always less frontloaded than sequels.
     
  21. I SEE SPIDEY Registered

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    The movie isn't a lock to do 170mil. I could see it going under 160mil if it plays out a certain way. If I had to make a guess I'd say 161-164mil.

    I hope Deadline has some early Saturday numbers but when movies open this well those numbers aren't as accurate.
     
  22. redfirebird2008 Registered

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    Rth at BO.com will have the most accurate number, but he waits to post until very late at night when all the West Coast shows have already been accounted for.
     
  23. Iceman Daffy Duck Vs The Joker

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    Wow, I would have been really impressed with $400m a few weeks ago! Hope the other Phase 2 films can see a good boost too.
     
  24. I SEE SPIDEY Registered

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    Oh really? I'll check on that site then.
     
  25. Liam_H Registered

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    Who here has the over under on DH2 opening. Could be close.
     

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