The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Discussion in 'Iron Man 3' started by Thread Manager, May 4, 2013.

  1. Thread Manager

    Thread Manager Moderator

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    This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]399537[/split]
     
    #1
  2. eddy

    eddy Make Mine Marvel

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    How much is this puppy going to make?

    I say 400 millionish domestic. 900 millionish worldwide.

    I'm trying to make this a poll but I'm not sure how to add the options.

    Never mind. Figured it out.
     
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  3. jacobed

    jacobed Well-Known Member

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    It'll be a huge issue
     
    #3
  4. Lightsplasher

    Lightsplasher Well-Known Member

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    900 millions worldwide would be great but Avengers final worldwide gross is of something like 888 millions . So I'll say it can earn at least 600 millions worldwide . But who knows , everything is possible :whatever:
     
    #4
  5. redfirebird2008

    redfirebird2008 Well-Known Member

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    Should make $375m or more in the domestic market and probably $800m overseas. It has a pretty good chance at $1.2 billion worldwide.
     
    #5
  6. Liam_H

    Liam_H Well-Known Member

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    Edit: nvm, forgot what happens when new threads start.
     
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    Last edited: May 4, 2013
  7. KangConquers

    KangConquers Purple Kang, Purple Kang

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    Probably more like $475 M.
     
    #7
  8. Paladin-Hoss

    Paladin-Hoss Well-Known Member

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    How do you guys figure that IM3 is gonna match Avengers foreign gross? not trolling, just curious..

    Hell, i want this movie to be a huge success, but matching TA box office seems like a tall order...for any movie
     
    #8
  9. Liam_H

    Liam_H Well-Known Member

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    Because of its current performance right now. Its not gonna match TA in overseas or WW gross but it is on track to hit $700-800 million leading to $1.1-1.2 billion WW.
     
    #9
  10. xeno000

    xeno000 IRON MAN WAS RIGHT!

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    Wishing doesn't make things so.
     
    #10
  11. Paladin-Hoss

    Paladin-Hoss Well-Known Member

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    Ah, i see!...so, a promising start for marvel's second phase then:yay:

    Financially...AND critically!
     
    #11
  12. Mr. Dent

    Mr. Dent Well-Known Member

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    475m is too high. It'll be on the lower end of 400m.
     
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  13. KangConquers

    KangConquers Purple Kang, Purple Kang

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    Well let's look at past MCU multipliers.

    Iron Man- 3.21
    The Incredible Hulk- 2.43
    Iron Man 2- 2.43
    Thor- 2.75
    Captain America- 2.715
    Avengers- 3.00

    That puts the average multiplier right at 2.75, which would be $467.5 M off of a $170 M opening weekend. If it has Iron Man 2's low multiplier, then yes, it could potentially do only $413 M.


    The range for this film based on the studios past successes is basically $400-500 M, and the whole range is game.
     
    #13
    Last edited: May 4, 2013
  14. darthcoolness3

    darthcoolness3 Well-Known Member

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    I am thinking it will do worst than Avengers and Iron Man 2 since it has a new director and everything.
     
    #14
  15. KangConquers

    KangConquers Purple Kang, Purple Kang

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    It will outgross Iron Man 2 worldwide tomorrow.
     
    #15
  16. Mr. Dent

    Mr. Dent Well-Known Member

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    Hmm, $475 just sounds really high. I'd say $435m.

    These comments are always funny.
     
    #16
  17. KangConquers

    KangConquers Purple Kang, Purple Kang

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    Well, when you have the second highest opening ever, "really high" isn't out of the question.
     
    #17
  18. MessiahDecoy123

    MessiahDecoy123 Psychological Anarchist

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    I think IM3 will be a little more front loaded than Thor since it's a sequel.

    Should still cross 400 m domestic though.
     
    #18
  19. I SEE SPIDEY

    I SEE SPIDEY Well-Known Member

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    It depends on how it holds up this weekend. I'm not predicting a final number until I get those weekend numbers. For all we know it dropped hard today.

    No matter what the word of mouth is I don't see it doing much better than Iron Man 2 legs wise because it is a second sequel.

    Still the movie is a raving success and it's going to do better than the last film.
     
    #19
  20. redfirebird2008

    redfirebird2008 Well-Known Member

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    Not likely unless it has WOM on par with Avengers. We will find out soon enough whether that is the case. I put $375m because a $170m opening should lock it for $375m, but there is no guarantee above that. It has a TON of competition coming up over the next month and a half. A lot more competition than IM2 dealt with. A lot more competition than the Avengers dealt with. And it is extremely flawed logic to compare a second sequel with franchise starters in terms of multipliers. Franchise starters are pretty much always less frontloaded than sequels.
     
    #20
  21. I SEE SPIDEY

    I SEE SPIDEY Well-Known Member

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    The movie isn't a lock to do 170mil. I could see it going under 160mil if it plays out a certain way. If I had to make a guess I'd say 161-164mil.

    I hope Deadline has some early Saturday numbers but when movies open this well those numbers aren't as accurate.
     
    #21
  22. redfirebird2008

    redfirebird2008 Well-Known Member

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    Rth at BO.com will have the most accurate number, but he waits to post until very late at night when all the West Coast shows have already been accounted for.
     
    #22
  23. Iceman

    Iceman Daffy Duck Vs The Joker

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    Wow, I would have been really impressed with $400m a few weeks ago! Hope the other Phase 2 films can see a good boost too.
     
    #23
  24. I SEE SPIDEY

    I SEE SPIDEY Well-Known Member

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    Oh really? I'll check on that site then.
     
    #24
  25. Liam_H

    Liam_H Well-Known Member

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    Who here has the over under on DH2 opening. Could be close.
     
    #25

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