Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Bruce Malone]

If IM3 didn't make over 1B WW, those people would've said that it is because the movie is terrible. But since it did cross the billion dollar mark those people are now giving all the credits to the "Avengers After Effect", and not the movie itself. Haters gonna hate, I guess.

Come on you can't deny that the avengers success played a huge role in IM3's box office. Look at the difference in how much money it's making compared to IM2?

It's huge international take is pretty much all due to the avengers breaking ground there. The 2 previous Iron Man films didn't do enormous over-seas. The splits were like 50-50 domestic international, now it's like 30-70.

 

[schiz0id]

Come on you can't deny that the avengers success played a huge role in IM3's box office. Look at the difference in how much money it's making compared to IM2?

It's huge international take is pretty much all due to the avengers breaking ground there. The 2 previous Iron Man films didn't do enormous over-seas. The splits were like 50-50 domestic international, now it's like 30-70.

Yeah we do agree with what you are saying, we're just correcting someone who's claiming that the "ONLY" reason is that this movie's grossed this much is because of the goodwill from The Avengers. As I have said before yes it played a huge part but the movie stands by its own, Iron Man is a big enough character and RDJ being at his peak of being widely known worldwide to deserve a place in the billion dollar club.

 

[Raiden]

Come on you can't deny that the avengers success played a huge role in IM3's box office. Look at the difference in how much money it's making compared to IM2?

It's huge international take is pretty much all due to the avengers breaking ground there. The 2 previous Iron Man films didn't do enormous over-seas. The splits were like 50-50 domestic international, now it's like 30-70.

Of course The Avengers has some positive effect on IM3's BO performance, just like it will probably have on Thor 2 and possibly Cap 2 as well. But if moviegoers didn't like IM3, the effect will only be front-loaded, and it won't have had enough legs to carry the movie pass the billion dollar club. Therefore, to insinuate that IM3 owes all of its success to TA is ridiculous and it's used in a way to try to undermine the movie and its unbelievable success.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Iron Man 3 doesn't owe all its success to TA of course not. It was a successful franchise on its own before the avengers. It's just the avengers that has allowed it to reach mega-blockbuster status.

It will be interesting to see how much thor and cap's sequel increase their BO? If they don't see large-spikes it could be a sign that the avengers sort of does rest mostly on iron man?

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Apparently $1.18bn is not enough for the troglodytes LOL

That's what the ignore list is for. Added several from this forum due to their incessant bashing/negativity.

 

[thalidomide]

That's what the ignore list is for. Added several from this forum due to their incessant bashing/negativity.

It's kinda fun seeing them try though

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Iron Man 3 doesn't owe all its success to TA of course not. It was a successful franchise on its own before the avengers. It's just the avengers that has allowed it to reach mega-blockbuster status.

It will be interesting to see how much thor and cap's sequel increase their BO? If they don't see large-spikes it could be a sign that the avengers sort of does rest mostly on iron man?

No, not really. You're being waaaay too simplistic in your analysis. This isn't TDKR, which of course owed its success to a much better and more culturally significant film. The MCU is a different animal. And its still very much a work in progress. Best to wait til after phase 3 before speculating.

on topic: what's the current tally?

 

[kedrell]

$385,895,208 DOM as of Monday. I figure it'll peter out around $410M.

 

[BigThor]

That's my target!

Mine too, so if it does I'm gonna be super happy with a Thor film making 800 million.

 

[Juicy J]

Dang. Great to see Marvel raking in such dough. Two movies in the highest grossing films of all time list is proof positive they're on top of their game, can't wait to see how Thor 2 and Cap 2 perform. I'm going to stick to conservative estimates, but they're pretty much both guaranteed money makers.

Exactly. People who love this movie act like its making money because its good. Its the Avengers after effect and that's the ONLY reason. Anyone thinking otherwise is kidding themselves. Your multiplier evidence is pretty clear in showing that if not for the Avengers, this movie would've been coming in lower than IM2 box office wise.

This guy.
Thanks for the laugh fella.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

I wasn't comparing it to The Avengers. Nor was I saying it's not a bigger hit than IM2(obviously, it is). I was just comparing IM2's and IM3's multipliers and using that as a basis to debunk the completely asinine notion that IM2 was not well received. If IM2 has the better multiplier(which sure looks to be the case) I don't see how any other conclusion can be drawn.

IM2 having a better multiplier doesn't mean much. It didn't have to go through a stacked May like IM3 did. Plus (and I don't know if this is the start of a trend or not) IM3 behaved less like a superhero movie and more like an animated movie (mediocre weekdays, awesome weekends).

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Also the bigger the opening weekend the weaker the legs in most cases.

A big OW is a sign there was a huge initial rush to see the movie and therefore it will be more frontloaded.

 

[kedrell]

Both had huge opening weekends. And IM2 wasn't facing a competition-less May like IM1 or TA did. Robin Hood opened surprisingly strong on it's 2nd weekend. IM1 had only piddly little Speed Racer to deal with and TA had something similarly small in Dark Shadows. IM2 and IM3's competition wasn't that dissimilar.

 

[Liam_H]

I just can't see the multipliers for IM3 and IM2 being comparable. The difference in OW is too vast for that. And I would say IM3 faced bigger comp than IM2 off the top of my head.

 

[fixxxer]

Exactly. People who love this movie act like its making money because its good. Its the Avengers after effect and that's the ONLY reason. Anyone thinking otherwise is kidding themselves. Your multiplier evidence is pretty clear in showing that if not for the Avengers, this movie would've been coming in lower than IM2 box office wise.

A multiplier is linear. And not to mention just one of the MANY MANY variables that go into extrapolating and explaining the cause-effect dynamics of something of this nature.

Putting my background in statistics aside, and just using plain ol' common sense, you CANNOT be serious by saying that IM3 would have come in lower than IM2 in the box office in an Avengers-less void. Now, the 'Avengers effect' is REAL and VERY tangible. But to think that alone bridges the revenue gap between IM2 and IM3 is absolutely absurd.

 

[Liam_H]

Are you referring to domestic or WW? Cause domestic, an argument can be made it might've since IM2 came in lower than IM1 despite opening a lot bigger.

 

[fixxxer]

Are you referring to domestic or WW? Cause domestic, an argument can be made it might've since IM2 came in lower than IM1 despite opening a lot bigger.

Both. The difference is simply too large to be explained away SOLELY by the Avengers effect.

Also, IM2's opening (and therefore, it's total box office take) was boosted heavily by IM1, i.e. the previous movie factor.

Think of the Hangover franchise. The Hangover was a surprise hit that pretty much came out of nowhere. The Hangover II was a huge hit, but (deservedly) universally panned. The Hangover III under-performed mightily.

 

[Liam_H]

Sticking to domestic here but I also feel that its OW isn't solely due to Avengers effect. It would've opened higher but not by much in my opinion, probably around $140 million or so. I would note that this doesn't take into 3D also. Since IM2 wasn't as well received as IM1 that doesn't sound unreasonable.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Let me put it this way.

If IM3 had the low quality of After Earth or Hangover 3, no Avengers effect would've helped it get close to 400 m.

A great previous movie will take you only so far.

 

[Tony Stark]

Let me put it this way.

If IM3 had the low quality of After Earth or Hangover 3, no Avengers effect would've helped it get close to 400 m.

A great previous movie will take you only so far.

That's kind of what happened with Spider-man 3. It had a huge opening, and it's overseas numbers were actually higher than The Dark Knight. But word of mouth was terrible. It's one of the few movies that actually has a higher critic rating score than it does audience score.

 

[ironman_rick]

Got this from boxofficemojo....

"overall box office came in at a record $1.14 billion, which is up 11 percent from last May"...

Yup. This May's boxoffice moolah is higher than the last one (quite amazing when you consider TA's record breaking opening.).

My take....IM3 has faced bigger competiton than IM1, IM2 and TA did in their respective release years. Thus to gross what it did (385 million so far) is quite remarkable.

Last year we had 3 movies getting past $400 million. This year, I only think IM3 will be the only movie to hit that milestone. There is just too many movies being released this summer.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Actually all the Raimi Spider-man movies have a higher critic score than audience score.

SM1's is way higher.

 

[Tony Stark]

IM3 might well be the highest grossing film of the year, let alone the summer. I agree there's a lot of competition.

Despite Avengers' huge run last year, everything else in may flopped hard. This year Great Gatsby performed above expected, and Star Trek, may not have performed as expected, but it certainly didn't flop. Fast and Furious was huge, and shows that what began as a modest hit became a blockbuster sensation.

Man of Steel should open big, but it's got some pretty big competition on it's heels. I think Monsters U. will be a big hit, and the early buzz is good. I'm also hoping that Lone Ranger is a big hit. If I were to pick my second favorite "superhero" behind Iron Man, it would be the Lone Ranger. I'm really hoping that one takes off, and they can give a rebirth to a character that's been dead to the public for some time.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Got this from boxofficemojo....

"overall box office came in at a record $1.14 billion, which is up 11 percent from last May"...

Yup. This May's boxoffice moolah is higher than the last one (quite amazing when you consider TA's record breaking opening.).

My take....IM3 has faced bigger competiton than IM1, IM2 and TA did in their respective release years. Thus to gross what it did (385 million so far) is quite remarkable.

Last year we had 3 movies getting past $400 million. This year, I only think IM3 will be the only movie to hit that milestone. There is just too many movies being released this summer.

Based on early buzz MOS might have a chance to break out and cross 400 M.

Catching Fire and Monsters University have a chance too.

 

[Tony Stark]

Actually all the Raimi Spider-man movies have a higher critic score than audience score.

SM1's is way higher.

Sorry, I meant that SM3 is one of the few on RT where the critic reviews are "fresh" but the audience reviews are "rotten".

Yes SM1 does have a way higher critic score than audience, which is surprising to me considering how big of a hit it was, being the biggest film of 2002, and holding box office records longer than any previous film.