The Avengers What sort of MARKETING does THE AVENGERS need to bring in the GA that are not fans?

[KangConquers]

It is if you add inflation, obviously...

Maybe if you're talking about inflation from 1992, not 2002.


I think I'm settling into $875 M as my final Avengers guess. I do believe it will do roughly $375 M domestically, but superhero breakdowns aren't always incredibly favorable overseas. Expanding overseas market should help it, but I'm not seeing it do much more than $500 M foreign. I DO fully expect Avengers to hit a billion by either the 2nd or 3rd movie though.

If Super Heroes had more cache overseas, this would be a no-brainer for a billion. Unfortunately, even with the expanding foreign market, the best superhero ratio we've seen recenty is Thor's 40/60. If Avengers did a 40/60 ratio at a mid to high 300 M range it would still fall short in the very low 900s.

I still think Avengers is FAR more likely to break a billion than to do Iron Man 2 numbers.

 

[dony2012]

The fact that you are even considering Battleship a possible Top 3 makes it very hard to take your opinion seriously...I see that movie taking home the Green Lantern / Cowboys and Aliens No prize for biggest bomb of the summer next year.



Actually, i'm with you on that one.

I also think BS will be a huge flop, but some people don't think so, so I just raised the possibility.


The Amazing Spider-Man is a big risk. They took a franchise that was still very commercially viable and killed it, only to reboot it. I see this movie doing well but not quite as well as the original Spider-Man kick-off. I expect about 750 M ww for this.

Spider-Man is still Spider-Man. And if the movie is good it could still make alot.

The Dark Knight Rises is obviously one of the big movies out next summer, and probably will beat The Avengers. How that single handedly keeps Avengers out of the top 3 films next summer, you'll have to explain to me, since you seem to work on your own sense of logic.

I'll explain it to you nice and simple... I DIDN'T SAID THAT.

I think The Avengers will be a big hit, I didn't said it won't be on the top 3 films next summer, all I said was that I think you're wrong that there aren't that many potential blockbusters next summer.

Today's current movie market is much more geared towards characters than big actors. Will Smith hasn't had a big hit just based on being Will Smith since Hancock. Men in Black is a franchise that lay dormant for years and had a terrible second outting. I see MiB3 doing well, but not well enough to be a top 3 of the year.

Maybe that's because, apart from some small drama, he wasn't in any big movie since Hancock!

And you're wrong, and Will Smith is the proof of that. He made movies that weren't sequels like I, Robot, Hitch, The Pursuit of Happyness, I Am Legend and Hancock huge hits.

Johnny Depp has only launched one franchise, and that franchise was based on a character of his that everyone fell in love with, not based on him being Johnny Depp. If you count Alice in Wonderland as being due to his rub, you're wrong. It was the first live adaptation of one of the most cherrished books of the last 150 years. Not saying Depp didn't help, but that wasn't the only reason it was big.

LOL! just because It was the first live adaptation of one of the most cherrished books of the last 150 years doesn't guarantee to make it a billion dollar hit. It was Johnny Depp star power. Can you even imagine teenagers offer their friends to go to see that movie without being laughed at? It was Johnny Depp presence that drew so many people from all age groups.


Depp's Public Enemies proves that not every project with his name on it is a runaway success, or a threat to the Avengers in the box office. Burton has also failed to strike commercial gold with Depp before. The Legend of Sleepy Hollow and The Corpse Bride failed to find the widespread acceptance you claim their next movie will.

Actually, that's more of a proof why Johnny Depp is the biggest star in the WORLD right now. But not necessarily in the U.S. A movie like Public Enemies would normally have zero chances to make something outside of the U.S. but this film actually managed to accumulate more than $100 million in foreign marketing. That's pretty impressive.

Also, The Legend of Sleepy Hollow and The Corpse Bride were made before Depp was turned into such a huge star...


My predicted top 5 for next summer:


01. The Dark Knight Rises: 1 B +
02. Avengers: $800 M- $1 B
03. Ice Age: Continental Drift- $800-900 M
04. Amazing Spider-Man: $650-800 M
05. MIB 3- $550-600 M

The Avengers could make $800M, but I don't think it will make over a billion or even $900M.

The Avengers doesn't have any huge, popular superhero with the exception of Iron Man. So that's why Iron Man will be the only attraction for most people to see this movie and therefore it will be reasonable to expect it to make just a bit more than Iron Man 2 numbers.

 

[nogap87]

Success will also depend on how much substance the threat has. We know Loki will have his little one on one with the heroes but if the majority of the movie is the Avengers fighting faceless drones like the end of Ironman 2, ROTF, and most of Captain America, than this movie will have horrible legs.

 

[Liam_H]

^I agree completely with that, IM2 was so boring with him flying around with the drones. Captain America wasn't as bad because the first half of the movie was so strong. TF2 was just s***ty all around.

 

[dony2012]

^I agree completely with that, IM2 was so boring with him flying around with the drones. Captain America wasn't as bad because the first half of the movie was so strong. TF2 was just s***ty all around.

Yup.

 

[cherokeesam]

To anyone saying Avengers can’t land in the $800 M to $1 Billion range, consider the fact that it is not the first film in a franchise;

...why do people keep trotting out the tired old myth that sequels are guaranteed to be better box office draws than their originals....?

For starters, check out the Superhero genre in particular, since it's most germane to what we're discussing here:

http://boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=superhero.htm

As you'll see on that chart, the *ONLY* franchises that had bigger b.o. sequels were TDK, Hellboy II and Blade II.

If you comparison shop some other genres on the 'Mojo, you get this:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/actionsequel.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/comedysequel2.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/familysequel.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/prequel.htm

And for a broader canvas, out of the Top 100 box office of all time, AFI (adjusted for inflation), the only franchises on that list that garnered more than their starter films were TDK, Shrek 2, Return of the King and The Two Towers, TF: Revenge of the Fallen, Toy Story 3 & 2, and T2: Judgment Day.

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

In fact, the numbers point towards the fact that sequels are far *less* likely to outperform their originals.

Avengers will be unique in that it's not a true sequel or prequel --- more like an omni-quel. A compilation. And yes, I believe that Avengers will outperform the other 4 franchises (Hulk, Thor, IM and Cap), but it's still a pipe dream that a superhero team comprised of the #5, #15, #17 and #24 positions on the CBM money list is going to somehow average out to numbers that will compete with TDK and Spidey's billion-dollar ranges.

 

[Liam_H]

You forgot X2.

 

[KangConquers]

...why do people keep trotting out the tired old myth that sequels are guaranteed to be better box office draws than their originals....?

For starters, check out the Superhero genre in particular, since it's most germane to what we're discussing here:

http://boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=superhero.htm

As you'll see on that chart, the *ONLY* franchises that had bigger b.o. sequels were TDK, Hellboy II and Blade II.

If you comparison shop some other genres on the 'Mojo, you get this:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/actionsequel.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/comedysequel2.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/familysequel.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/prequel.htm

And for a broader canvas, out of the Top 100 box office of all time, AFI (adjusted for inflation), the only franchises on that list that garnered more than their starter films were TDK, Shrek 2, Return of the King and The Two Towers, TF: Revenge of the Fallen, Toy Story 3 & 2, and T2: Judgment Day.

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

In fact, the numbers point towards the fact that sequels are far *less* likely to outperform their originals.

Avengers will be unique in that it's not a true sequel or prequel --- more like an omni-quel. A compilation. And yes, I believe that Avengers will outperform the other 4 franchises (Hulk, Thor, IM and Cap), but it's still a pipe dream that a superhero team comprised of the #5, #15, #17 and #24 positions on the CBM money list is going to somehow average out to numbers that will compete with TDK and Spidey's billion-dollar ranges.

You're not even capable of interpreting the data in your own arguments. Every subsequent X-Men movie went up in box office. Spider-Man 3 and Iron Man 2 also showed worldwide increases and remain each franchises top-grosser. Not counting reboots, and prequels, F4 is the only comic book movie that sequels couldn't top.

It's not about the "averages" of the Avengers. You've failed to address anything I said. If it was about "Averages" Batman would've never had a billion dollar film since his first 5 films have a weaker average than the first five marvel studios films, and since his previous film was outgrossed by 3 of MS's 5 movies.

The Avengers is a legitimate event movie, and it's Disney's top priority for 2012. Think about the marketing blitz that went into Transformers, Pirates of the Caribbean and Harry Potter this year; that's what Disney will be doing for Avengers next year. Disney fired Marvel's entire marketing team because they know what a big deal the Avengers is, and they obviously believe that they can take it higher than marvel has taken their other franchises.

 

[Shadowlord X]

This site needs a lower age and IQ limit. Arguing with some of these people makes me think I'm dealing with mentally challenged children.

What we are saying is that THE AVENGERS has a chance of hitting a billion not that it will. I myself don't think that it wll but that it will cross the $800 million WW BO. Let's look back at a couple scenarios.

BB did well at the BO but nowhere near tdk levels. Based upon BB begins performance and the "logic" of some people here tdk should have made only slightly more. Then why did it make so much more?
-BB audience grew tremendously on dvd, cable, etc.
-Hype, publicity, and marketing for tdk - the movie gained EVENT status before it came out primarily because of the first time since JK that we are seeing the joker and it is being played by a famous actor whose casting caused lots of controversy, supposedly gave a brilliant performance, and has died making it his last movie.
-a movie percieved as much greater than BB.

Let's look at the POTC franchise. That series has been crap since part 2 but part 4 came out and made more WW because of a rapidly expanding global market since the last movies and it has a beloved character.

There are many other scenarios to bring up but let's leave it at that.

TIH was a movie that wasn't well recieved in theatre because mainly of a bad taste in the mouth left by the previous movie. But looking at it's IMDB ratings and scores, it's audience has grown incredibly (pun intended) since then and the movie is well recieved. I myself know several people who never gave it a chance in cinema but saw it afterward and really like it. None of you arguing against the BO success of THE AVENGERS can say how much the audience for THOR and CA:TFA will have grown from dvd, netflix, etc., by the time THE AVENGERS will come out.

IRON MAN is now an iconic character right up there with Superman, Batman, Spiderman, and Wolverine. Even if this movie is just percieved as IM 2.5 or 3 (which it probably will not and none of you can say that it will be percieved that way by the GA) then on a currently rapidly expanding global market with inflation and 3D pirces this should make $700 - $800+ million WW BO.

HULK IS AN ICONIC POPULAR CHARACTER TO THE GA, primarily because of its beloved TV series. This is also something people forget. Ask anyone in their 30's, 40's, or 50's who never touched a comicbook in their life and their will most likely know about THE HULK. The first movie was not well recieved becasue it was crap and the VFX were poor and effortlessly took people out the movie. If they get THE HULK's VFX right in this movie that alone will bring people in; seeing an iconic character portrayed correctly at last. It is a big if however. Money shots alone of HULK (with great VFX) fighting IRON MAN, THOR, etc., in the trailer will be hype building.

This movie has EVENT status from several recent and successful franchises coming together for one big movie.

MARKETING is about getting people to buy your product who will not have bought it otherwise.

There are so many factors here that it a near impossible call for the final WW BO for THE AVENGERS. Many of you down-cryers are calling out facts that may not have validity or applicability and stating them as a certtainty. And you are sounding like silly little 12 year old ******** dc fanboys in the process.

I will go on record and say that THE AVENGERS will make > $800 million WW BO gross, and that > $1 BILLION is a possibility.

 

[The Morningstar]

Alien invasion disaster movie featuring superheroes like Iron Man = $$$

 

[cherokeesam]

You're not even capable of interpreting the data in your own arguments. Every subsequent X-Men movie went up in box office. Spider-Man 3 and Iron Man 2 also showed worldwide increases and remain each franchises top-grosser. Not counting reboots, and prequels, F4 is the only comic book movie that sequels couldn't top.

Sorry, I thought I had listed the X-films as one of the few sequel success stories.

But hey, if you're going to include foreign grosses, too, the huge drop-off from Spidey 1 to Spidey 2 just reiterates the point.

It's not about the "averages" of the Avengers. You've failed to address anything I said. If it was about "Averages" Batman would've never had a billion dollar film since his first 5 films have a weaker average than the first five marvel studios films, and since his previous film was outgrossed by 3 of MS's 5 movies.

It *is* about the averages of the Avengers. Or at least the highest common denominator, which remains RDJ as Iron Man. It's about *audiences* who actually want to see these characters as a team.

Where are you magically finding all these audiences that didn't care enough to see any of the previous four characters' films, yet will somehow decide that a GROUP effort of four characters they don't give a crap about will suddenly make it worth their while....???

As for the Bat-franchise, you, me and everyone else knows that TDK was lightning in a bottle, and was almost entirely about The Joker, *not* Batman. TDKR will see a MASSIVE dropoff from TDK, and will, again, reiterate the point about sequel success rarely being a guarantee.

The Avengers is a legitimate event movie, and it's Disney's top priority for 2012. Think about the marketing blitz that went into Transformers, Pirates of the Caribbean and Harry Potter this year; that's what Disney will be doing for Avengers next year. Disney fired Marvel's entire marketing team because they know what a big deal the Avengers is, and they obviously believe that they can take it higher than marvel has taken their other franchises.

I don't doubt that marketing the Avengers is a huge priority for Disney; I never said otherwise. I'm not sure I entirely agree that the sacking of Marvel's marketing was *just* for the sake of The Avengers, but rather for the future of Marvel Studios in general.

The Avengers will be a success; but I'm 99% sure that the success that Marvel/Disney are looking for is simply to establish a shared film universe...to prove that it's commercially viable. I *don't* believe that a billion-dollar franchise is their target, and I think that those of you who *do* are setting yourselves up for major disappointment, unnecessarily.

 

[Shadowlord X]

@ Cherokeesam

What you are not getting is the concept of EVENT STATUS and the MARKETING that will go along with that.

As I said before MARKETING is about getting people to by your product who would not have doen so otherwise. DISNEY'S marketing will be looking to push this all the way.

THE AVENGERS has EVENT STATUS which none of the smaller films have had before. It's being touted already as one of THE MUST SEE MOVIES of 2012. It is the first time several successful recent movie franchises are combining into one movie. The movie has several characters that are iconic to different generations:
IRON MAN - the current tweenie generation
HULK - 30's to 50's
CAPTAIN AMERICA - 50's to 70's

Finally, YES, all of these factors WILL get people into theatres who didn't watch the others.

 

[Shadowlord X]

@ Cherokeesam

I do agree with you that it most likely will not hit $1 BILLION WW BO gross, so I am not going to be disappointed if it doesn't.

I do think that it will gross > $800 million WW and I will be surprised if it doesn't.

The only way I will be truly disappointed is if I don't get a spectacularly awesome movie.

 

[cryptic name]

Yup, people LOVED that movie.

Christopher Nolan has made Batman the most popular superhero in the world (again).

So, Ledger or not, people will still go to see TDKR.

Also, without an A-lister like Spider-Men or Wolverine in The Avengers, and the fact that the only hero in the group that sort of reaches their level of popularity is Iron Man, the only real A-lister on that team when it comes to box office draw and success (the other movies in the MCU didn't made that much especially in the U.S.), I could even see a situation next year where Batman alone will make more money than all of those heroes that are together in The Avengers.

I mean, The Avengers doesn't REALLY feel like the ultimate team up/comic book movie that Marvel could have had if Spider-Man or Wolverine were in it.

The Avengers doesn't have the A-list power that a film like Justice League could have with heroes like Superman and Batman.

I'm sorry. I'm not really a DC fan, but that's the cold truth.

I'm still excited for the film though, especially since I'm a HUGE fan of Joss Whedon's work!

Spider-Man and Wolverine have no place in The Avengers

 

[Quasimod0]

The Avengers has captain america, iron man, thor, and the hulk. Dont think its missing anything.

 

[TheDragonator]

With Disney marketing, I think the GA doesn't need worrying about. Thor did fine, especially overseas, and he was easily the riskiest to adapt.

 

[dony2012]

Spider-Man and Wolverine have no place in The Avengers

Wow, you've completely missed my point...

 

[The Morningstar]

I don't think he missed your point. But he's right, Spidey and Wolverine aren't Avengers, they're Bendisvengers. Two totally different things.

Besides, Robert Downey Jr as Iron Man is a big draw himself.

 

[WildcatNC]

@ Cherokeesam

What you are not getting is the concept of EVENT STATUS and the MARKETING that will go along with that.

As I said before MARKETING is about getting people to by your product who would not have doen so otherwise. DISNEY'S marketing will be looking to push this all the way.

THE AVENGERS has EVENT STATUS which none of the smaller films have had before. It's being touted already as one of THE MUST SEE MOVIES of 2012. It is the first time several successful recent movie franchises are combining into one movie. The movie has several characters that are iconic to different generations:
IRON MAN - the current tweenie generation
HULK - 30's to 50's
CAPTAIN AMERICA - 50's to 70's

Finally, YES, all of these factors WILL get people into theatres who didn't watch the others.

I agree. If Disney does what I think they will, Avengers will be played up as an "Avatar" like event. I'm not saying it will make that much money, just saying it will have that "must see" feel to it that Avatar did, as an EVENT. Something new and unprecedented.

600-800 million is realistic and expected IMO. 1 Billion + is possible though. Its just according to how things play out.


Wolverine and Spiderman should NEVER be on the Avengers. Ever. Its an abberation of nature.

 

[KangConquers]

As for the Bat-franchise, you, me and everyone else knows that TDK was lightning in a bottle, and was almost entirely about The Joker, *not* Batman. TDKR will see a MASSIVE dropoff from TDK, and will, again, reiterate the point about sequel success rarely being a guarantee.

I don't doubt that marketing the Avengers is a huge priority for Disney; I never said otherwise. I'm not sure I entirely agree that the sacking of Marvel's marketing was *just* for the sake of The Avengers, but rather for the future of Marvel Studios in general.

The Avengers will be a success; but I'm 99% sure that the success that Marvel/Disney are looking for is simply to establish a shared film universe...to prove that it's commercially viable. I *don't* believe that a billion-dollar franchise is their target, and I think that those of you who *do* are setting yourselves up for major disappointment, unnecessarily.

So you really believe that the Ledger Joker grossed 630 Million dollars extra single handedly? ********. The Dark Knight was a perfect storm of several different factors; a well recieved reboot that did gangbusters in rentals, a brilliant marketing campaign, extraordinary pre-film buzz. Ledger's Joker and subsequent death did give it a bit of a boost, but if you think that prior to Ledger's death, TDK was going to be another $400 M dollar movie, you're really off base.

I really doubt Disney, a company who has had billion or near billion dollar movies 3 years in a row will go "Okay, well...we're taking a year off this year! let's just shoot for Iron Man numbers for this movie!" If Avengers doesn't do at least 800 M next year, Disney is in big trouble. John Carter is going to bomb, and Brave is likely to do strong but not exceptional numbers.

Every top priority film by a major company over the past 3 years (in the 3D era) has done at least 800 M. Inception had NO footing to be a huge movie. It had Christopher Nolan as a director, that's it. And it drew $828 Million dollars worldwide. Avengers has a lot more going for it going in than Inception did.

Avengers is going to have a $130-150 M opening weekend domestically, guaranteed. The legs will be determined by how well received the movie is. Iron Man 2 had a great opener, but had only slightly above average buzz; if IM2 had been as good or better than IM1, it probably would've grossed far more.

As long as that initial wave of people who see Avengers leaves saying "Yes, this is fantastic, you need to see it", high 9 figures is ensured.

 

[KangConquers]

Wow, you've completely missed my point...

Why btw, would Avengers need Wolverine? All of the Marvel cinematic universe films have performed comparable to the X-Men films save The Incredible Hulk.


MCU's 5 movies box office:


1. Iron Man 2- $620 M
2. Iron Man- $590 M
3. Thor- $450 M
4. Captain America- $340 M + (will end up with $360ish)
5. The Incredible Hulk- $260 M

Total: $ 2.26 Billion



X-Men:

1. X-3- $450 M
2. X-2- $410 M
3. Wolverine- $370 M
4. X-Men- $300 M
5. X-Men: First Class- $350 M

Total: $1.88 Billion


So as far I can tell, this franchise doesn't need Hugh Jackman's Wolverine. The top 4 Avengers films have outgrossed the entirety of the X-series by over 100 million dollars, Hulk is just the icing on the cake. All of these heroes (save Hulk) have proven to be roughly the same sized draw as Wolverine, with Iron Man coming out exceptionally higher.


So this isn't a bunch of b-listers starving for a real hero. This is a legitimate event, with well received, popular superheroes. Are they Batman or Spider-Man level? No. But neither are Superman or Wolverine by your logic. This movie will wind up #2 of the summer, and #3 or 4 of the year. with at least an $800 M dollar gross.

 

[dony2012]

Why btw, would Avengers need Wolverine? All of the Marvel cinematic universe films have performed comparable to the X-Men films save The Incredible Hulk.


MCU's 5 movies box office:


1. Iron Man 2- $620 M
2. Iron Man- $590 M
3. Thor- $450 M
4. Captain America- $340 M + (will end up with $360ish)
5. The Incredible Hulk- $260 M

Total: $ 2.26 Billion



X-Men:

1. X-3- $450 M
2. X-2- $410 M
3. Wolverine- $370 M
4. X-Men- $300 M
5. X-Men: First Class- $350 M

Total: $1.88 Billion


So as far I can tell, this franchise doesn't need Hugh Jackman's Wolverine. The top 4 Avengers films have outgrossed the entirety of the X-series by over 100 million dollars, Hulk is just the icing on the cake. All of these heroes (save Hulk) have proven to be roughly the same sized draw as Wolverine, with Iron Man coming out exceptionally higher.


So this isn't a bunch of b-listers starving for a real hero. This is a legitimate event, with well received, popular superheroes. Are they Batman or Spider-Man level? No. But neither are Superman or Wolverine by your logic. This movie will wind up #2 of the summer, and #3 or 4 of the year. with at least an $800 M dollar gross.

Well, both Thor and Cap were in 3D, which added alot to the final gross of those films.

And when X4 will come out sometime in the near future, in 3D, I'm pretty sure it will make alot more than Cap and Thor and even the Iron Man films.

And ultimately the profits don't matter here. What matters is that if the movie had BOTH Spider-Man and Wolverine just by their names being attached to it alone it would have made everyone to want to go and see it just because both of these characters are so popular and so well known that people just wouldn't be able to comprehend it and will go crazy as to how cool and awesome it is to have both of them in the same film.

Same goes for Batman and Superman in the same film.

I think if 2 movies came out at the same time JLA, and Avengers. One movie has Captain America, Iron Man, Thor, and Hulk, and the other has Superman and Batman in it most casual movie goers would go to see Superman and Batman. You add Spider-Man and Hugh Jackman to the movie however, and the movie will make ALOT more.

 

[Chewy]

RDJ's Iron Man is much more popular than Wolverine ever was. That's not even debatable.

 

[dony2012]

RDJ's Iron Man is much more popular than Wolverine ever was. That's not even debatable.

Actually, it is

I'll bet you that when X4 will come out (in 3D) it will make over a billion WW...

 

[Liam_H]

^No way at all. None of the X-men movies even cracked $500 million WW. They are not that huge overseas.