There's still about 25 games left, but the playoff picture in the NL looks pretty much set. The Padres could catch the Dodgers, but both teams look like playoff locks. The Dodgers have essentially a 3 game lead (because of the tie breaker). I don't see the Giants catching either as they are 8-10 games back.
The Cubs aren't catching the Brewers, but neither are the Reds catching the Cubs so those two are in also.
In the east, the Mets "maybe" have a chance to catch the Phillies if the wheels fall off, but don't count on it. There's no way the Marlins catch NY so the Phills and Mets are in.
My biggest surprise is how poorly Atlanta fared. I thought they'd be much, much better than they've shown.
The AL is a "little" more murky. In the east, it looks like the Jays, Yanks, and Red Sox are in. The Red Sox would have to fall behind 2 teams in order to be out and have a 3 game lead over the Mariners, a 5 game lead over the Rangers, and a 6 game lead over the Royals. Detroit is in so I think the Mariners, Rangers, and Royals fight it out for the last spot. Seattle is 2 up on Texas and 3 up on KC. The Mariners, however, could catch the Astros and are only 2 games behind them, then it's Houston likely fighting for that last spot. Nothing over there is for sure as a lot of teams are rather bunched up.
Biggest surprise here is that the Yanks didn't walk away with it in the east, but they've been slightly bitten by the injury bug.