2022 Midterm Thread: Red Wave or Blue Wave

[MagnarTheGreat]

Dave Wasserman, Redistrict: "I've seen enough: Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) defeats Herschel Walker (R) in the #GASEN runoff, giving Democrats a 51-49 majority in the Senate."

 

[mclay18]

That was quick.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Decision Desk HQ: "Decision Desk HQ projects Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Georgia. #DecisionMade: 9:48pm EST "

 

[mclay18]

The 2022 cycle is over. Time for the cable networks to call it.

 

[squeekness]

I'm happy. Just wish the race hadn't been so close.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Dave Wasserman, Redistrict: "To my eye, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) is on track to prevail by 2-4 pts. By the standard of the 2021 runoffs, that's a Democratic blowout. #GASEN"

He's saying that because if the same Warnock and Walker contest happened in 2020-21 the margin would have been bigger for Warnock (2020 was a D+3.0 national House environment while 2022 is a R+~2.9 national House environment).

 

[mclay18]

I'm happy. Just wish the race hadn't been so close.

Warnock’s final margin is going to be in the 2-4 point range, which is a blowout for Ds in Georgia.

 

[SuperSpideyGirl]

The 2022 cycle is over. Time for the cable networks to call it.

MSNBC just called it.

CNN & FoxNews have followed suit.

 

[Sithborg]

That was quick.

Yeah, I was seeing reports of Warnock outperforming the main election's performance in red areas. Not by a lot, granted, but in this race, that was all he needed. Not a surprise, but good god, it is scary that it has to be this close between a qualified candidate and a walking head injury.

Though, to be fair, California did send back Feinstein.

 

[Iceman]

Good to get this confirmed at least.

 

[mclay18]

Good to get this confirmed at least.

Which means Biden and Schumer are going to be confirming more judges at a quicker rate for the next 2 years. Senate Rs will no longer have a power-sharing agreement with Ds on January 2023, what with Warnock elected to a full term and Fetterman being the 51st vote.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Georgia Senate Run-off Election 2022
Raphael Warnock (D-inc.) 1,817,465 | 51.4% (D+2.8 lead)
Herschel Walker (R) 1,719,868 | 48.6%
Total reported 3,537,333 | >95% of votes counted



Cook Political Report National House Vote Tracker (current as of morning of December 7)
Republicans: 54.4M (50.6%) (R+2.8)
Democrats: 51.3M (47.8%)
others: 1.7M (1.6%)
TOTAL: 107.4M

See also: 1962-2020 Table

Cook Political Report House Seat Projections (current as of morning of December 7)
Republicans: 222 (51.0%)
Democrats: 213 (49.0%)
TOTAL: 435

^2022 results not final /

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Daily Kos Elections: "Some history-making tonight:

• First midterm since '62 that Dems netted Senate seats while holding White House
• First midterm since '34 that the WH party netted Senate seats *and* governorships
• First midterm since '34 that the WH party didn't *lose* a single Senate seat"

A shame about the House but escaping the fact the WH party loses seats 93% of the time is very hard to do but at least the damage was limited.

NY Times - Democrats Didn’t Just Win Georgia. They Secured a Firmer Grip on the Senate.
Senator Raphael Warnock’s victory provides a real working majority for Democrats after two years of a tenuous 50-50 split.

 

[InCali]

Yeah, I was seeing reports of Warnock outperforming the main election's performance in red areas. Not by a lot, granted, but in this race, that was all he needed. Not a surprise, but good god, it is scary that it has to be this close between a qualified candidate and a walking head injury.

Though, to be fair, California did send back Feinstein.

Okay, now that's DAYUMMMM funny.

I hope she doesn't forget what party she's in.

 

[InCali]

Warnock is a really good speaker. Even better than Walker.

 

[Lily Adler]

Herschel Walker Party Video Shows Moment They Found Out He'd Lost

 

[Teelie]

Yeah, I was seeing reports of Warnock outperforming the main election's performance in red areas. Not by a lot, granted, but in this race, that was all he needed. Not a surprise, but good god, it is scary that it has to be this close between a qualified candidate and a walking head injury.

Though, to be fair, California did send back Feinstein.

That is was ever this close at any point is disappointing.

 

[mclay18]

Once the final vote for Warnock is finalized and certified, he'll have won by around 100K votes or so. That's not a razor thin margin -- a win is a win!

We need to thank Georgia voters and voter rights groups like Stacey Abrams for keeping the two Senate seats blue and flipping GA in 2020.

And that means a lot more judges can be confirmed without Senate Rs slowing down the confirmation votes in committee.

 

[BeserkerHilf]

Honestly, surprised Warnock didn't start his speech off with "How many times does a mother****a have to win the popular vote to be your senator?!"

 

[Iceman]

Hopefully these are good signs for 2024.

 

[Teelie]

Honestly, surprised Warnock didn't start his speech off with "How many times does a mother****a have to win the popular vote to be your senator?!"

Being a pastor, Warnock is a little more restrained then that although I agree otherwise.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Atlanta Journal-Constitution - Analysis: How Raphael Warnock defeated Herschel Walker

It was a late November stop in Wrightsville, the east Georgia town where Walker grew up. The Democrat was joined there by Curtis Dixon, a former high school football coach of Walker's who declared the Republican "is not ready" to serve in the Senate.

While it hardly attracted media attention, the visit got under Walker's skin. Soon, aides were instructed to attack Dixon as a fraud. One staffer wound up deleting a tweet that inaccurately claimed Dixon wasn't Walker's football coach. Staffers plunged into despair.

"It was the best decision the Warnock campaign ever made," a Republican operative said. "That was when staff realized we weren't going to get Walker to sharpen his message. We knew the trip was an attempt to distract us — and it worked."

It also says Warnock deployed the secret weapon also used by Fetterman: the Dave Matthews Band.

 

[mclay18]

Atlanta Journal-Constitution - Analysis: How Raphael Warnock defeated Herschel Walker


It also says Warnock deployed the secret weapon also used by Fetterman: the Dave Matthews Band.

Beasley had Dave Matthews with her on the campaign trail and she still lost. If only Budd had been as incompetent as Herschel…

 

[mclay18]

Hopefully these are good signs for 2024.

It’s hard to unseat incumbents. Manchin is probably the most endangered 2024 seat out of the three (including Tester and Brown) — especially since the WV governor is considering running against him.

 

[InCali]

Once the final vote for Warnock is finalized and certified, he'll have won by around 100K votes or so. That's not a razor thin margin -- a win is a win!

We need to thank Georgia voters and voter rights groups like Stacey Abrams for keeping the two Senate seats blue and flipping GA in 2020.

And that means a lot more judges can be confirmed without Senate Rs slowing down the confirmation votes in committee.

While I am relieved and gratified that Warnock won, I find it disturbing that Walker was able to come within 3% points of Warnock. A complete and utter buffoon. They could have run a stuffed pillow from Lindell and gotten that close.