Its hard to predict what this jury will do. But I will say this, getting split up right now is the best case scenario for NiCorey.
Let's assume the spoiler is true (and there is really no way of knowing, so I am taking it with a grain of salt) and Paul won HOH. Let's further assume that either Nicole or Corey are voted out. That will actually be the best thing possible for the remaining player.
Assume for a moment that Nicole won HOH and sent Paul out at the final four. Paul would be there for the jury deliberations. However, the final three juror is not part of deliberations. Further, most people do not realize, the jurors are not allowed to talk game in the jury house. There is actually an army of handlers there who prevent it (isn't it telling that, unlike Survivor where the jurors are free to talk about whatever they choose, on Big Brother, the producers control the information...even having a moderator for "jury deliberations"?). They are only allowed to have game talk when a new juror arrives or during the deliberation. By going to the Final 3, Paul will not be a part of any of that. Assuming he does not make final two, he will join the jury on finale night.
That is GREAT for NiCorey, assuming that they would not make final 2 together. Let's assume James and Nicole or James and Corey make final 2, with a final 3 of James/Nicole/Corey. Paul enters the jury as the final juror who brings a video and takes part in deliberations. Paul is the most outspoken player in the game. He would tank Nicole and Corey as snakes, expose all of their double dealings, etc. Now, if the rumors are true, he will never have that opportunity. If he did, it would probably hand the game to James.
But on the flip side, I am confused as to how exactly the jury will feel. There are times when they seem incredibly bitter. There are times when they seem apathetic. Paul joining right now would cement them in the former category. But now? Who knows? If James goes, being the non-factor that he is, it will change nothing. Nicole or Corey would probably campaign for one another. Its just really hard to predict where the heads of these jurors are at.
That said, at this point, I would rank the jurors in terms of how much they deserve to win as follows:
1) Nicole - Breaks my heart to put her there as there is nothing personally appealing about her, but she played the best game, hasn't been on the block, and has had a role in controlling nearly every eviction but Paulie and Z. Often employing subtle manipulation to keep the target off of her
2) Paul - He is who I would like to see win. He adopted the Sandra Diaz-Twine strategy of "anyone but me" and it worked. That said, his survival is almost in spite of itself. So many of the holes he has found himself in are of his own creation, simply due to lack of familiarity with the game. Anyone who knew the game would've seen the Nicole/Corey backstab coming from miles away and would've played Victor's HOH differently. But Paul didn't. Its funny, Paul mentioned on the feeds that while he was in pre-game sequester the producers gave him BB17 to watch, and he got bored and quit watching about 3 episodes in. Paul has been the smartest player this season and the most socially adept and he did it without ever watching the show or truly understanding the game. I can't help but wonder what his game would have looked like if he watched Vanessa's and really understood it. I feel like he would've run circles around the idiots they cast this season. It would've been Derrick's level of control with Dan and Will's sense of showmanship. He probably would've gone down as a top five player if he knew the game at all. But he doesn't and it shows. I look forward to seeing his inevitable return, I really think he can own the game once he really understands it.
3) Corey - Say what you will about his personality (or lack there of), his dullness, his goat burning...he has played a pretty solid game. He has stayed under the radar while also being part of big decisions. That is tough to do on Big Brother. That said, I can't quite rank him above Paul because it too often feels that he is a passenger in Nicole's game rather than playing his own.
4) James - James does not deserve to win at all. There is no case to be made for it. But sadly, I think if he makes it to the finals, he will win hands down. In fact, I think the only player who can beat him is Paul...MAYBE. I think Meech and Natalie are locks for James. I think Nicole is also due to her outside of the house friendship with him. With Nicole, probably comes Corey. So that means he only needs one vote to win, be it Da'Vonne, Z, Paulie, Victor, or Bridgette. At the end of the day, I think both Da'Vonne and Bridgette will go for James (Da'Vonne due to her friendship with him, Bridgette due to her friendship with Nat) and hand James the game making him the worst winner in the game's history. I think he beats Corey and Nicole too. I think they backstabbed too many people. Paul and Victor both took it very personally, so that means they will probably vote James. In fact, they told Nicole and Corey that they would. That would mean James has four votes (Paul, Victor, Meech, Natalie). All he would need is Da'Vonne (who dislikes Nicole and Corey) or Bridgette (same).
As such, I am rooting for Nicole or Corey to win the final veto and oust James. He has no redeeming qualities as a player but is, sadly, at this point, the favorite. Especially assuming Paul did win HOH. Let's assume Veto changes nothing. We will have a final three of Corey or Nicole/Paul/James. If James wins final HOH, he is in the finals and wins. If Paul wins, he may believe he cannot beat Corey. I am not sure how he would feel regarding Nicole. But Corey, for some reason, everyone (ranging from Nicole to Paul and Victor have talked about how he is a shoe-in in the finals). In reality, I think Paul would beat Nicole or Corey, but I think he might erroneously take James (especially considering his aforementioned lack of game knowledge). Conversely, I think Corey or Nicole would under-estimate James and take him, thinking that he is an easy win and that the jurors will respect Paul's superior game. So yeah, if James makes final 3, I think he wins and becomes the worst winner in BB history.
