Rise of the Silver Surfer BOX OFFICE Discussion

[Downhere]

Wow, Surfer hasn't even made it's budget back yet domestically. I wonder how plans of a sequel are going...

If Fox is smart they would move ahead with a sequel...I think once this hits DVD, it will do really well in rentals and all and others will realize how good the film is. The problem is that they released it in a crowded market next to films that are just bigger than F4 is.

 

[phillip phonix]

^^

agreed but its likely that the film will make back its budget domesticaly

 

[Downhere]

^^

agreed but its likely that the film will make back its budget domesticaly

Hmm, no it won't. Remember, the studio roughly gets 55% of the worldwide take, so it will have to rely on the worldwide take to make back the budget, which is the case for these big blockbuster type films.

 

[Carp Man]

July 11, 2007

THURSDAY ESTIMATES: 'Harry Potter' with an estimated $25.65M for all-time 4th-biggest Thursday!

by Steve Mason

THURSDAY NIGHT: After opening with the all-time biggest Wednesday, Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) appears to have delivered the all-time 4th-best Thursday. HP5 took in and estimated $25.65M on Thursday, bringing its 2-day cume to $69.8M. The only movies in modern history with bigger Thursdays are Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith ($50M), The Matrix Reloaded ($37.5M) and Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones ($30.1M).


Please note. Whenever there is a midnight opening for a major release, it's tricky to call the 2nd full day performance for that title. It's difficult to figure how much of the midnight take is accurately represented in the day 1 gross. I know this Harry Potter number is close, but the margin of error may be a little higher than usual.


EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY THURSDAY ESTIMATES
1. Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) – $25.65M – down 42% [$69.8M cume]
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $6.23M – down 11% [$186.8M cume]
3. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) – $3.22M – down 18% [$124.8M cume]
4. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) – $1.55M – down 11% [$91.9M cume]
5. License to Wed (Warner Bros) – $1.15M – down 9% [$23M cume]
6. Evan Almighty (Universal) – $808,000 – down 17% [$82.8M cume]
7. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) – $709,000 – down 10% [$57.1M cume]
8. Knocked Out (Universal) – $508,000 – down 10% [$134.5M cume]
9. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) – $394,000 – down 12% [$13.2M cume]
10. Evening (Focus) – $325,000 – down 8% [$7M cume]
11. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (Fox) – $289,000 – down 7% [$125.2M cume]
12. Ocean’s Thirteen (Warner Bros) – $276,000 – down 7% [$110.5M cume]
13. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) – $232,000 – down 11% [$303M cume]
14. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $97,800 – down 18% [$317.3M cume]
15. Nancy Drew (Warner Bros) - $95,800 – down 8% [$23.8M cume]

 

[GreenKToo]

T.F. will be over 200 mill by tonight. Looks live free or die hard will hit a 100 mill this weekend as well.

 

[matthooper]

^^

agreed but its likely that the film will make back its budget domesticaly

Actually no. The film cost $130 million so it would need to make $260 million to make back it's budget on domestic mumbers alone. It's made just $125 and it's numbers are dead now. The studio gets 50% of the ticket sales with the other 50% going to the theaters.


It's made $223 million worldwide and will probably have to rely on DVD sales to make a profit. Remember, there is $30 million in advertising as well. Making the total budget actually around $160 million.

 

[Kelly]

Actually no. The film cost $130 million so it would need to make $260 million to make back it's budget on domestic mumbers alone. It's made just $125 and it's numbers are dead now. The studio gets 50% of the ticket sales with the other 50% going to the theaters.


It's made $223 million worldwide and will probably have to rely on DVD sales to make a profit. Remember, there is $30 million in advertising as well. Making the total budget actually around $160 million.

They get 55%, and we have no idea was the advertising budget was, nor do we know how much they got as far as Dodge, Slurpee etc....which were two very large tie ins.....much larger than any tie in in the first movie.....yes it has a long way to go, and I don't know that it will make it to $260 million which is a shame.....but we "know" far to little, to know just how much if any of profit they will make.....

 

[matthooper]

They get 55%, and we have no idea was the advertising budget was, nor do we know how much they got as far as Dodge, Slurpee etc....which were two very large tie ins.....much larger than any tie in in the first movie.....yes it has a long way to go, and I don't know that it will make it to $260 million which is a shame.....but we "know" far to little, to know just how much if any of profit they will make.....

They get more the first few weeks, but the theater gets more as the weeks go on. Since FF2 made nothing after the first 3 weeks, in this case the studio makes more than the theater. However, for successfull films, it sometimes evens out to 50/50.

 

[Agent 194]

I have 1 bookcase, with all my models on it. My model of the Enterprise is in a plastic display case. Lights still work on it too. I've been offered a lot of money for it over the years, but some things transend money. Like my comics. The 1st 120 issues of FF in mint condition. They have all been certified 10.

Impresssive. Most impressive. But are they slabbed or out to be seen?

 

[Agent 194]

T.F. will be over 200 mill by tonight. Looks live free or die hard will hit a 100 mill this weekend as well.

What're you predicting it'll bring in this weekend?

 

[Carp Man]

Impresssive. Most impressive. But are they slabbed or out to be seen?

Each one is in a seperate sleve, and in a safety deposit box at the local bank here.

 

[Carp Man]

July 11, 2007

REVISED THURSDAY ESTIMATE: 'Harry Potter' with only an estimated $18.6M.

by Steve Mason

FRIDAY MORNING: Last night, I went online with a $25.65M Thursday projection for Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros). I also wrote a disclaimer about how tricky it is to make a projection for the 2nd full day of release for a movie with a mid-week opening when there are midnight shows. It's time to use the disclaimer. Harry Potter was down 42% as I wrote last night, but they were actually down 42% from $32M ($44M less $12M in midnight business). So, my revised estimate for Order of the Phoenix on Thursday is $18.6M.

I could pull off the update that I wrote last night, but that's not my style. I always leave my stories and predictions up whether they turn out to be right or wrong. Given that Thursday was considerably softer than I thought it would be, I'll be interested to see how front-loaded the picture is. We'll get a very good idea when I release Friday projections tonight.

Note : He's like me. You make a prediction, and stick with it, right or wroung.

 

[Carp Man]

What're you predicting it'll bring in this weekend?

This weekend. Hmmmmmmmmm. $ 70.5 last weekend. 50 % drop would be $ 35.25. 60 % would be $ 28.2. 70 % would be $ 21.5. Hmmmmmmmmmmm. Ill say between $ 21 and 28. 60 to 70 % drop.

 

[Hunter Rider]

Numbers are still impressive even at $18M

 

[Carp Man]

Numbers are still impressive even at $18M

HP is just an impressive franchise. And if Harry indeed dies, that movie will be off the charts box office wise. All records may fall.

 

[Spider-Fan]

HP is just an impressive franchise. And if Harry indeed dies, that movie will be off the charts box office wise. All records may fall.

Harry dying would be a bad ending :

However, I do not want to know what happens in book #7. I will avoid it like the plague.

 

[Carp Man]

Harry dying would be a bad ending :

However, I do not want to know what happens in book #7. I will avoid it like the plague.

Box office wise it would be a hell of an ending. However this is a magic laced franchise. Harry can always be resurected by a magic spell.

 

[highguard]

Actually no. The film cost $130 million so it would need to make $260 million to make back it's budget on domestic mumbers alone. It's made just $125 and it's numbers are dead now. The studio gets 50% of the ticket sales with the other 50% going to the theaters.


It's made $223 million worldwide and will probably have to rely on DVD sales to make a profit. Remember, there is $30 million in advertising as well. Making the total budget actually around $160 million.

Well that is the same for all films. What was meant I think is that the film will make its budget back domestically. The Studio's take is a separate issue.

So by this weekend it will be at like 227 million. Now getting that extra 3 million is the ticket.

Fox can leave it out there which is what I think they will do until it crosses that number as the WB did with Superman. Whatever deals it is they do to keep movies out while they can.

And then that will be that.

 

[Kelly]

Well that is the same for all films. What was meant I think is that the film will make its budget back domestically. The Studio's take is a separate issue.

So by this weekend it will be at like 227 million. Now getting that extra 3 million is the ticket.

Fox can leave it out there which is what I think they will do until it crosses that number as the WB did with Superman. Whatever deals it is they do to keep movies out while they can.

And then that will be that.

F4 is still on the same amount of screens around me as TF, and HP....all have 2 screens each.....haven't checked any further out than that....

 

[Spider-Fan]

Box office wise it would be a hell of an ending. However this is a magic laced franchise. Harry can always be resurected by a magic spell.

According to the movies thus far, you can't come back from the dead...otherwise they would have brought the Potter's back already.

I don't like that ending :

Also I think people would be mad about that ending too, thus hurting the BO more than helping it.

 

[Agent 194]

Each one is in a seperate sleve, and in a safety deposit box at the local bank here.

Cool.

 

[Carp Man]

Thursdays #'s are in. FF 2 $ 125,559,118 dom. $ 223,573,690 WW. TF's $ 186,990,000 dom. $ 284,197,996 WW. HP $ 62,606,743 dom. $ 91,806,743 WW. All #'s thru 7-12.

 

[Carp Man]

Cool.

I think so. Not many FF # 1's in mint condition. t: Have only seen 1 9.5 grade for sale, and it went for 15 grand. That was about 5 years ago. Never seen a 10 up for sale.

 

[GL's Light]

Jeez, the collapse of FF 2's weekday numbers this week has been really bad. $ 287,315 on Thursday is a lousy launching pad for the weekend; it sets the stage for a collapse this weekend. We're probably looking at a 65-70% drop, which would be wretched for a film in its fifth weekend.

If there's a sequel it's going to be on the back of foreign box office, but this domestic dropoff pattern has to give Fox pause about making FF 3.

 

[Kelly]

Jeez, the collapse of FF 2's weekday numbers this week has been really bad. $ 287,315 on Thursday is a lousy launching pad for the weekend; it sets the stage for a collapse this weekend. We're probably looking at a 65-70% drop, which would be wretched for a film in its fifth weekend.

If there's a sequel it's going to be on the back of foreign box office, but this domestic dropoff pattern has to give Fox pause about making FF 3.

I agree.....the numbers suck....