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I made this cause I am sick of Singer taking heat for Supermans box office dissappointment. His movie coulda been more awesome, but it was still a good movie, and, contrary to popular belief, got good word of mouth, and; given the circumstances, got extraordinary box office legs.
This is all about showing why Superman’s release date of June 28th is why Superman disappointed, and NOT because of lack of action. This is going to examine Superman’s box office after pirates of the Caribbean 2 opened, so will start with Superman’s second Friday, but first, a little review.
Superman’s 108 million opening week was more than stellar, and 26% better than Batman Begins. If this has kept up, Superman would of finished with 260 million domestically. Superman had approximately 120 million bucks by the time Pirates opened and was off it’s 53 million dollar opening weekend. It’s drops over the week were good. It dropped less than Spidey 2 and War of the worlds on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Supes raked in 5.3 million on it’s second Thursday. So with 120 million heading into it’s second Friday, Pirates opened to 9 million in midnights, and 55 million opening day, destroying the records for biggest opening day, biggest single day, and biggest Friday. Meanwhile, Superman got 6.9 million on that Friday, an increase of JUST 30% over the previous day. How does that compare to the past 2 july 4th openers?
Spider-man 2 rose 51%.
War of the Worlds rose 57%
Superman Returns rose 30%.
Supermans word of mouth was in the middle, but I would go 50% would be the minimum it would of risen without Pirates 2. 5.3 + 50% is 8 million for the Friday.
Then we come to Saturday, where Pirates collected an additional 45 million. Superman got 8.5 million on a 20% increase.
Spiderman 2 rose 29%.
War of the worlds rose 27%.
Giving Superman a 25% increase from the 8 million from before puts it’s Saturday at 10 million.
Then Sunday. Superman dropped 25%, in line with Spiderman and War of the Worlds. Without Pirates and with supermans word of mouth and adult audience, a 25% would of been in line, and is evident when you look at Supermans Sunday drops in later weekends, which didn’t break 20% several times. 10 – 25% gives Superman 7.5 million for Sunday.
8 million Friday
10 million Saturday
7.5 million Sunday
Supermans second weekend is actually 25.5 million, a 51% drop from it’s opening weekend. Superman Returns actually droped 59%. Supermans current total is 145.5 million domestically after 2 weekends.
On it’s weekdays, superman’s Monday and Tuesday drops do not count as last week’s were inflated. BUT it’s Wednesday was down 59% and it’s Thursday down 54% while Pirates set records for biggest non opening Wednesday and Thursday. Without these, drops would have been 45%ish, similar to war of the worlds. So, that is 12 million(what Superman earned the previous wed+thur) – 45%= 6.6 million, plus the additional 6.2 million from Monday and Tuesday I did not inflate.
Supermans total, heading into’s third weekend, is 158.3 million .
Third weekend: On Friday, Superman rose 38%, while Spidey rose 50%. I think a 45% increase would have been in store. Superman than rose 46% and then dropped 20%, which is pretty much accurate.
So, 3.3 million from Thursday + 45% = 4.8 million Friday. 4.8+ 46%= 7 million Saturday, and 7-20%=5.5 Sunday. Third weekend total is 17.3 million, down just 34% from the previous weekend (superman actually dropped 40% on this weekend). Supermans total is now 175.6 million, or 12 million ahead of Supes pace.
From here, supermans drops would have increased slighty. Its weekdays were down 35% from the previous week (and yall say it had bad word of mouth – roll eyes). No pirates, that’s 30%. Its weekdays 12.8 million. So 12.8 million-=30%=8.9 million.
Fourth weekend, Superman dropped JUST 38%. No pirates 2, I would have it around 35%. 17 million=35%=11 million.
Supermans total is now 195.6 million, or 18 million ahead of what superman returns actually did.
Weekdays, superman dropped an average of 45% while pirates kept owning, so I would make that 40%. 12.8-40%=7.7 million. Superman would of crossed the 200 million barrier, and would have 203.3 million.
The following weekend, superman dropped 47% suffering an enormous theater count loss(-800 locations). Realistically, had the film been holding better, it would not have lost theaters. No pirates+better holds would be a 35-40% drop maximum. Ill go with 40%to keep things un biased. 11 million-40%= 6.7 million. Superman now has 210 million total and continues chugging.
Its weekdays dropped an average of 39%. No theater count loss or pirates 2, 30% would be in store. 7.7 –30%=5.4 million.
Weekend, superman dropped 42% while dropping more theater and pirates held great. Take these out, its a 35% drop. 6.7-35%=4.3 million.
Suprmans total is now 220 million.
Weekdays dropped 45% with continuous theater loss. I see 40% drop. 5.4 – 40% = 3.3 million.
Weekend, superman dropped 42% as it dropped below 2000 theaters when it started at over 4000. Without so much ****, look for 35% max. 4.3 –35%= 2.8 million. Superman is now at 226.1 million.
Weekdays, superman fell 44%, down 350 theaters from the past week. I would give it around 40%. 3.3 – 40%=2 million.
Weekend, superman 1000 THEATERS and drops 43%. less theater drop and no pirates 2, drop is roughly 35%. 2.8-35%= 1.9 million.
Weekdays, superman drops 30% while losing theaters. I would give it 20% without such drops. 2 million-20%=1.6 million.
Supermans total is 231.6 million and going, and this when supermans legs finally kicked in.
Weekend, superman drops just 8% when it finally only loses 70 theaters. I would say 5% without pirates which was STILL cleaning house.
1.9 million-5%=1.8 million
weekdays were down 25%, which I would say would be 20%. 1.6-20%=1.3 million
the weekend was labor day and superman rose 30%, which I would make 40%. 1.8+ 40%=2.4 million.
At this time, superman’s total would have been a very leggy 238 million, and a total around 245 million is where it would of ended up.
Things to improve upon from sequel & suggestions
-get the kiddies into it
-get the girls into it
those will sound strange, but according to w.b. themselves, the audience was equally split from under 25 and over, but when it came to 18 and under, they account for just over 40% of the audience, meaning that people 19 years and older made up 58%, or 116 million dollars worth, of superman’s gross. As well, 58% of the audience up until its second weekend, had been make. Meaning just 42% was females.
As it is now, I would just open superman up july 4th 2009. As the only major sequel of the summer in a time where sequels reign supreme at the box office, Warner Brothers would be nuts to pass up the chance at Superman 2 be the event movie of the summer where as in 2010, it surely would not be; not with SHREK 4.
If you go for the 5 day and give it physical villain and a Superman Returns sized marketing push, I would say look for 110-115 million for the 5 day ( a 35% increase over Superman Returns), and if the film’s quality is up to par, a total over 260 million domestically is defiantly doable, with 300 million possible if the film is better than RETURNS, it opens to 115 million, and the competition isn’t as big as say, 2006. Either way 250 million domestic guarantees their goal of 500 million worldwide, as Pirates mauled Superman overseas far more than it did in the united states, but that is a different story touch on later.
This is all about showing why Superman’s release date of June 28th is why Superman disappointed, and NOT because of lack of action. This is going to examine Superman’s box office after pirates of the Caribbean 2 opened, so will start with Superman’s second Friday, but first, a little review.
Superman’s 108 million opening week was more than stellar, and 26% better than Batman Begins. If this has kept up, Superman would of finished with 260 million domestically. Superman had approximately 120 million bucks by the time Pirates opened and was off it’s 53 million dollar opening weekend. It’s drops over the week were good. It dropped less than Spidey 2 and War of the worlds on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Supes raked in 5.3 million on it’s second Thursday. So with 120 million heading into it’s second Friday, Pirates opened to 9 million in midnights, and 55 million opening day, destroying the records for biggest opening day, biggest single day, and biggest Friday. Meanwhile, Superman got 6.9 million on that Friday, an increase of JUST 30% over the previous day. How does that compare to the past 2 july 4th openers?
Spider-man 2 rose 51%.
War of the Worlds rose 57%
Superman Returns rose 30%.
Supermans word of mouth was in the middle, but I would go 50% would be the minimum it would of risen without Pirates 2. 5.3 + 50% is 8 million for the Friday.
Then we come to Saturday, where Pirates collected an additional 45 million. Superman got 8.5 million on a 20% increase.
Spiderman 2 rose 29%.
War of the worlds rose 27%.
Giving Superman a 25% increase from the 8 million from before puts it’s Saturday at 10 million.
Then Sunday. Superman dropped 25%, in line with Spiderman and War of the Worlds. Without Pirates and with supermans word of mouth and adult audience, a 25% would of been in line, and is evident when you look at Supermans Sunday drops in later weekends, which didn’t break 20% several times. 10 – 25% gives Superman 7.5 million for Sunday.
8 million Friday
10 million Saturday
7.5 million Sunday
Supermans second weekend is actually 25.5 million, a 51% drop from it’s opening weekend. Superman Returns actually droped 59%. Supermans current total is 145.5 million domestically after 2 weekends.
On it’s weekdays, superman’s Monday and Tuesday drops do not count as last week’s were inflated. BUT it’s Wednesday was down 59% and it’s Thursday down 54% while Pirates set records for biggest non opening Wednesday and Thursday. Without these, drops would have been 45%ish, similar to war of the worlds. So, that is 12 million(what Superman earned the previous wed+thur) – 45%= 6.6 million, plus the additional 6.2 million from Monday and Tuesday I did not inflate.
Supermans total, heading into’s third weekend, is 158.3 million .
Third weekend: On Friday, Superman rose 38%, while Spidey rose 50%. I think a 45% increase would have been in store. Superman than rose 46% and then dropped 20%, which is pretty much accurate.
So, 3.3 million from Thursday + 45% = 4.8 million Friday. 4.8+ 46%= 7 million Saturday, and 7-20%=5.5 Sunday. Third weekend total is 17.3 million, down just 34% from the previous weekend (superman actually dropped 40% on this weekend). Supermans total is now 175.6 million, or 12 million ahead of Supes pace.
From here, supermans drops would have increased slighty. Its weekdays were down 35% from the previous week (and yall say it had bad word of mouth – roll eyes). No pirates, that’s 30%. Its weekdays 12.8 million. So 12.8 million-=30%=8.9 million.
Fourth weekend, Superman dropped JUST 38%. No pirates 2, I would have it around 35%. 17 million=35%=11 million.
Supermans total is now 195.6 million, or 18 million ahead of what superman returns actually did.
Weekdays, superman dropped an average of 45% while pirates kept owning, so I would make that 40%. 12.8-40%=7.7 million. Superman would of crossed the 200 million barrier, and would have 203.3 million.
The following weekend, superman dropped 47% suffering an enormous theater count loss(-800 locations). Realistically, had the film been holding better, it would not have lost theaters. No pirates+better holds would be a 35-40% drop maximum. Ill go with 40%to keep things un biased. 11 million-40%= 6.7 million. Superman now has 210 million total and continues chugging.
Its weekdays dropped an average of 39%. No theater count loss or pirates 2, 30% would be in store. 7.7 –30%=5.4 million.
Weekend, superman dropped 42% while dropping more theater and pirates held great. Take these out, its a 35% drop. 6.7-35%=4.3 million.
Suprmans total is now 220 million.
Weekdays dropped 45% with continuous theater loss. I see 40% drop. 5.4 – 40% = 3.3 million.
Weekend, superman dropped 42% as it dropped below 2000 theaters when it started at over 4000. Without so much ****, look for 35% max. 4.3 –35%= 2.8 million. Superman is now at 226.1 million.
Weekdays, superman fell 44%, down 350 theaters from the past week. I would give it around 40%. 3.3 – 40%=2 million.
Weekend, superman 1000 THEATERS and drops 43%. less theater drop and no pirates 2, drop is roughly 35%. 2.8-35%= 1.9 million.
Weekdays, superman drops 30% while losing theaters. I would give it 20% without such drops. 2 million-20%=1.6 million.
Supermans total is 231.6 million and going, and this when supermans legs finally kicked in.
Weekend, superman drops just 8% when it finally only loses 70 theaters. I would say 5% without pirates which was STILL cleaning house.
1.9 million-5%=1.8 million
weekdays were down 25%, which I would say would be 20%. 1.6-20%=1.3 million
the weekend was labor day and superman rose 30%, which I would make 40%. 1.8+ 40%=2.4 million.
At this time, superman’s total would have been a very leggy 238 million, and a total around 245 million is where it would of ended up.
Things to improve upon from sequel & suggestions
-get the kiddies into it
-get the girls into it
those will sound strange, but according to w.b. themselves, the audience was equally split from under 25 and over, but when it came to 18 and under, they account for just over 40% of the audience, meaning that people 19 years and older made up 58%, or 116 million dollars worth, of superman’s gross. As well, 58% of the audience up until its second weekend, had been make. Meaning just 42% was females.
As it is now, I would just open superman up july 4th 2009. As the only major sequel of the summer in a time where sequels reign supreme at the box office, Warner Brothers would be nuts to pass up the chance at Superman 2 be the event movie of the summer where as in 2010, it surely would not be; not with SHREK 4.
If you go for the 5 day and give it physical villain and a Superman Returns sized marketing push, I would say look for 110-115 million for the 5 day ( a 35% increase over Superman Returns), and if the film’s quality is up to par, a total over 260 million domestically is defiantly doable, with 300 million possible if the film is better than RETURNS, it opens to 115 million, and the competition isn’t as big as say, 2006. Either way 250 million domestic guarantees their goal of 500 million worldwide, as Pirates mauled Superman overseas far more than it did in the united states, but that is a different story touch on later.
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