Rise of the Silver Surfer BOX OFFICE Discussion

[tviceman]

Is FF2 going to hit the dollar theatres?

 

[batdude]

It has in my town.

 

[Carp Man]

August 10, 2007

FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: 'Rush Hour 3' targets $60M; 'Stardust' headed for $13M-$16M; 'Daddy Day Camp' with less than $10M; 'Skinwalkers' to flop

by Steve Mason

Brett Ratner’s Rush Hour 3 (New Line) is the only sure thing this weekend (Aug. 10-12), and it will coast to an easy weekend win.

Here are my final predictions for the weekend of August 10-12:
1. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) - $58.1M
2. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) - $33M
3. Stardust (Paramount) - $15.7M
4. The Simpsons Movie (Fox) - $12.5M
5. Daddy Day Camp (Sony) - $7M
6. Underdog (Buena Vista) - $6.9M
7. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) - $6M
8. Hairspray (New Line) - $5.75M
9. Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) - $5.25M
10. Becoming Jane (Miramax) - $3.5M

 

[Carp Man]

FF 2 #'s thru Thursday :

Domestic: $130,558,656 54.1%+ Foreign: $110,715,843 45.9%= Worldwide: $241,274,499

 

[Carp Man]

Perspective.

And there will be additional international numbers and a final world-wide tally at some point.

It does not open in Japan till Sept. So lots of updates to go, and it's fun to compair box office between the movies.

 

[Kelly]

Is FF2 going to hit the dollar theatres?

It's at 5 dollar movies here....

 

[Carp Man]

August 10, 2007

The 'Rush' is on! 'Rush Hour 3' w/$17.8M Friday and a $49.8M 3-day target; 'Bourne' holding strong with $10.7M Friday and an estimated $34M 2nd weekend; 'Stardust' soft w/$3M Fri and $9M OW; 'Daddy Day Camp' and 'Skinwalkers' bomb

by Steve Mason


FRIDAY NIGHT: New Line’s re-teaming of Chris Tucker, Jackie Chan and director Brett Ratner has proved worth every penny of its investment as Rush Hour 3 is officially a blockbuster. The action-comedy has grabbed an estimated $17.8M on its opening day, and that should translate to a 3-day haul of approximately $49.8M. That’s less than Rush Hour 2’s opening weekend of $67.4M back in 2001, but it’s considerably stronger than the original 1998 Rush Hour opening weekend of $33M. RH3 marks the third best opening weekend of Ratner’s career.

TOP 5 OPENING WEEKENDS FOR BRETT RATNER-DIRECTED FILMS

1. X-Men: The Last Stand - $102.7M
2. Rush Hour 2 - $67.4M
3. Rush Hour 3 - $49.8M (estimate)
4. Red Dragon - $36.5M
5. Rush Hour - $33M

Last weekend’s box office champion The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) is holding exceedingly well with a $10.7M Friday, vaulting its 8-day cume to $109.3M. The Greengrass/Damon thriller is headed for a very strong second weekend in the $34M range.

The Simpsons Movie (Fox) grabbed $3.7M to kick off the weekend, and it will bank an estimated $12.3M by Monday morning, putting Homer and family above the $150M mark.

-With just under $1M on Friday, Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) has nudged past the magical $300M mark.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES

1. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) - $17.8M [$17.8M cume]
2. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) - $10.7M [$109.3M cume]
3. The Simpsons Movie (Fox) - $3.7 [$144.8M cume]
8. Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) - $1.7M [$268.3M cume]
11. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $950,000 [$300.5M cume]


EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES

1. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) - $49.8M [$49.8M cume]
2. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) - $34M [$132.6M cume]
3. The Simpsons Movie (Fox) - $12.3M [$153.4M cume]
8. Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) - $5.9M [$272.5M cume]
11. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $3.4M [$303M cume]

http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/08/the-rush-is-on-.html

Note : That would put HP 5 $ 17.5 million ahead of HP1 for same # of days.

 

[tviceman]

Potter 5 won't catch Potter 1, let alone break $300 million.

 

[Carp Man]

Potter 5 won't catch Potter 1, let alone break $300 million.

Whatever.

 

[Advanced Dark]

I don't see it hitting 300 domestic. It's at 270m now almost but pulling in just over 1m on a Friday. It's still doing quite well though.

 

[Carp Man]

August 10, 2007

Friday estimates for the top 46 films; New Line claims $19.1M on Friday for 'Rush Hour 3'; Other studios call it "a reach," but 'RH3' still headed for $50M+; 'Stardust' soft; 'Daddy Day Camp' and 'Skinwalkers bomb

by Steve Mason

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: New Line is playing a little fast and loose with the numbers for Rush Hour 3 today. Last night, I reported that RH3 scored $17.8M Friday, but today, New Line is claiming $19.1M. None of my other studio sources agree (although 1 studio says it's more like $18.5M). Rush Hour 2 opened with a $23.1M Friday and then followed with a 2.91 Internal Multiple ($67.4M opening weekend divided by $23.1M opening day). Based on the same Internal Multiple, Rush Hour 3 would finish the weekend in the $51M-$55M range. The low end of that range seems about right. Just completed the expanded Friday estimates including all of the specialty films.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EXPANDED FRIDAY ESTIMATES


25. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (Fox) - $84,000 [$130.6M cume]


http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/08/the-rush-is-on-.html

 

[Malus]

Potter 5 won't catch Potter 1, let alone break $300 million.

Maybe not. I don't really have a dog in any of these races, but I have to admit, it pleases me that Potter is almost 200 million ahead of Transformers internationally.
And that The Simpsons Movie clobbered Transformers across Europe on their joint opening weekend. Too funny.

And not because I didn't enjoy Transformers. I did.
And I haven't even seen the new Potter.

It just pleases me to see films mined from literature (Potter) and years of intricate and beloved characterization (Simpsons) come out ahead of a movie based on an action figure line.

 

[tviceman]

I don't see it hitting 300 domestic. It's at 270m now almost but pulling in just over 1m on a Friday. It's still doing quite well though.

Oh hell yeah it's doing well. All the Potter films have done well. I was just saying it won't outgross the first one.

 

[tviceman]

Maybe not. I don't really have a dog in any of these races, but I have to admit, it pleases me that Potter is almost 200 million ahead of Transformers internationally.
And that The Simpsons Movie clobbered Transformers across Europe on their joint opening weekend. Too funny.

And not because I didn't enjoy Transformers. I did.
And I haven't even seen the new Potter.

It just pleases me to see films mined from literature (Potter) and years of intricate and beloved characterization (Simpsons) come out ahead of a movie based on an action figure line.

I hope they make a "Family Guy" movie (one for theaters, not straight to DVD).

 

[danoyse]

Oh hell yeah it's doing well. All the Potter films have done well. I was just saying it won't outgross the first one.

I don't think any of them have topped the first one, but I think most of the fans are in agreement that those movies have gotten better as they've gone along. The movies have also gotten darker and scarier, so it's less of a kid audience that shows up for them now.

To Harry Potter fans, it's more important that the movies are done right from the books (and so far they've been done well)...not their box office receipts. As it should be for any of these films.

 

[Malus]

I hope they make a "Family Guy" movie (one for theaters, not straight to DVD).

I'd be there.

 

[Advanced Dark]

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117970038.html?categoryid=13&cs=1

Early #'s on FF overseas from Wed openings. New update this afternoon for full weekend.

 

[Carp Man]

August 12, 2007

'Rush Hour 3' dips 8% Saturday for $17.57M & a revised 3-day of $51M; 'Bourne' adds $13.1M Saturday and a likely $33.33M 2nd weekend; 'Stardust' manages only $3.32M Saturday; 'Daddy Day Camp' down 4% from Friday

by Steve Mason

Rush Hour 3 (New Line) dipped 8% from its opening day for a $17.57M Saturday, and the re-teaming of Chris Tucker, Jackie Chan and Brett Ratner appears headed for a slightly disappointing 3-day opening weekend. New Line claims that Rush Hour 3 grabbed $19.1M on its opening day, but other studios say that the real number was closer to $18.5M. The action-comedy will likely suffer a Sunday drop in the 18% range for $14.4M or so. That should put the movie's 3-day estimate right at $51M, but it won't be a surprise to see the number adjusted downward when actuals are released Monday afternoon.

The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) continued its strong performance grabbing $13.1M on Saturday. The Damon/Greemgrass thriller is on target for a $33.33M 2nd weekend, an excellent hold. The Simpsons Movie (Fox) generated another $4.24M and Homer and family will likely score a 3rd weekend gross of $11.1M. That puts Simpsons at an estimated $152.2M domestic.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) - $17.57M [$36.6M cume]
2. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) - $13.1M [$122.1M cume]
3. The Simpsons Movie (Fox) - $4.25M [$148.9M cume]
8. Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) - $2.11M [$270.3M cume]
10. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $1.32M [$301.8M cume]
25. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (Fox) - $119,280 [$130.7M cume]


EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) - $51.08M [$51.08M cume]
2. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) - $33.33M [ $131.9M cume]
3. The Simpsons Movie (Fox) - $11.11M [$152.2M cume]
8. Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) - $5.42M [$272M cume]
11. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $3.29M [$302.8M cume]
26. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (Fox) - $292,740 [$130.8M cume]

http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/08/the-rush-is-on-.html

 

[Carp Man]

Weekend estimates :

RH3 :
Domestic: $50,240,000 100.0%+ Foreign: n/a 0.0%= Worldwide: $50,240,000

TBU :
Domestic: $132,343,000 100.0%+ Foreign: n/a 0.0%= Worldwide: $132,343,000

TSM :
Domestic: $152,237,000 44.5%+ Foreign: $189,954,253 55.5%= Worldwide: $342,191,253

HP5 :
Domestic: $272,000,000 33.1%+ Foreign: $550,000,000 66.9%= Worldwide: $822,000,000

TF's :
Domestic: $302,919,000 50.5%+ Foreign: $296,708,905 49.5%= Worldwide: $599,627,905

Harry Potters going to town. Thought TF's would do better overseas. They like robot movies overseas.

 

[tviceman]

Harry Potters going to town. Thought TF's would do better overseas. They like robot movies overseas.

When it's all said and done, Potter will probably be the #1 or #2 franchise in the world (competing with the Star Wars series for the top spot).

I thought Transformers would've set records in Japan and China. The movie is very Americanized though. The U.S. military presence and gun-ho attitude is prevalent throughout and probably isn't helping with foreign reviews/word of mouth.

 

[Advanced Dark]

International Update!!!

Fifth during the weekend was Fox's "Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer," which re-energized its overseas run by playing 1,815 screens in 11 markets for an estimated $11.4 million, lifting its international total to $123 million. The biggest of the film's six openings was France, where the tally was an estimated $4.8 million from 750 sites.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com

International: 123 Million (H.Reporter)
Domestic: 130.8 Million (estimate at FMoguls)

Total: 253.8 Million and counting...

That surpasses The Hulk I believe Worldwide.

 

[Angelus7181]

International Update!!!



http://www.hollywoodreporter.com

International: 123 Million (H.Reporter)
Domestic: 130.8 Million (estimate at FMoguls)

Total: 253.8 Million and counting...

That surpasses The Hulk I believe Worldwide.

I hope it breaks 300 mil. WW by the time the DVDs roll out! t:

 

[Advanced Dark]

I hope it breaks 300 mil. WW by the time the DVDs roll out! t:

Not sure if it can. It should have a solid week in those new territories and there's still Japan next month. I'm betting on 280-285.

 

[Angelus7181]

Not sure if it can. It should have a solid week in those new territories and there's still Japan next month. I'm betting on 280-285.

Isn't Japan one of the biggest international market it can land on? 45 mil. in the next what.. 2 months can't be to far fetched until the DVDs start selling here in the US. Besides that it still has other markets to open in but I'm not to sure. I just hope in the end FOX is pleased and we get to see FF3, I'm sure that's all we want in here.

 

[Carp Man]

I thought Transformers would've set records in Japan and China. The movie is very Americanized though. The U.S. military presence and gun-ho attitude is prevalent throughout and probably isn't helping with foreign reviews/word of mouth.

Never thought of that, but u may be right.