Rise of the Silver Surfer BOX OFFICE Discussion

[Kelly]

Yeah, and this doesn't bode well with the looming strikes next year. Guess it could be a while before either is greenlit.

Neither is on Fox's pre-strike push projects.....so I have to agree.

 

[Advanced Dark]

what 4 will that be AD? and in your opinion, what film will Singleton make? BP or Luke?

Iron Man
Incredible Hulk
Punisher: War Zone
Wolverine

 

[Carp Man]

Iron Man
Incredible Hulk
Punisher: War Zone
Wolverine

Of those 4, I would rank them in WW order :

1. Iron Man (I think it will do very well).
2. Hulk (or 3rd. It may suffer from the same fate FF 2 did. Bad 1st movie).
3. Woulverine (or 2nd. Don't know how a stand alone movie will do).
4. Punisher (I mean the 1st movie did $ 54.7 WW on a $ 33 budget)

 

[Docker2.0]

Wolverine should do well Carp. Depending on the villian, which I say should be Omega Red, the budget shouldn't be over $50million. It really doesn't need a high budget to make it work. And the Hulk.................honestly, I really don't think the movie will do well. I think Marvel should have done Thor or Cap instead of Hulk. I just don't see the hype up for a sequel right now. I HOPE Iron Man does well, there is buzz everywhere about it, but the budget is what has me worried. $180 million for this movie?! That's how much I thought it would make max in it's domestic run. But I do hope that it makes a lot more.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Wolverine should do well Carp. Depending on the villian, which I say should be Omega Red, the budget shouldn't be over $50million. It really doesn't need a high budget to make it work. And the Hulk.................honestly, I really don't think the movie will do well. I think Marvel should have done Thor or Cap instead of Hulk. I just don't see the hype up for a sequel right now. I HOPE Iron Man does well, there is buzz everywhere about it, but the budget is what has me worried. $180 million for this movie?! That's how much I thought it would make max in it's domestic run. But I do hope that it makes a lot more.

The budget will be higher than 50 million I can assure you. Hell 20 million is going to Jackman if not more. Should be more like 125-150 budget.

 

[Docker2.0]

Well I know it WILL be over $100 million but what I'm saying is that to make a Wolverine movie, it doesn't necessarily have to be a expensive movie. It can be a small budget movie. Hence, a bigger return.

 

[highguard]

Fox isn't working on either at the moment, the powahs the be are VERY QUIET.

Yeah they are, well I guess that means no FF3 until 2010, which is where I think it was going to go anyway, with Tim taking the "loosers" gig over at WB.

Well with 4 Marvel films in 2008 we'll be busy.

You know that is true and my favorite all time hero is on the fast track, Thor the Son of Odin, its hammer time baby. And I just heard that they may be pushing Justice League over at WB, what is the deal with Singer, they can't wait too long on that project.

...... there is buzz everywhere about it, but the budget is what has me worried. $180 million for this movie?! That's how much I thought it would make max in it's domestic run. But I do hope that it makes a lot more.

180 million, whoah. That is some serious paper. Marvel was supposed to bring their films in at around 100 million as they only have a 500 million revolving fund I think. What is the deal here... if these movies under perform it could sink Marvel's film division right off the bat.

Where did you get that figure from, you got a link. You know how we are with info around here Docker, gotta verify everything.

 

[highguard]

I know they should finish up one thing before starting another.

Or do both simultaneously and release them 6 months apart. SS is not a substitute for FF3 Fox, just like Elektra was not for Daredevil, somebody at Marvel has to speak up.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Or do both simultaneously and release them 6 months apart. SS is not a substitute for FF3 Fox, just like Elektra was not for Daredevil, somebody at Marvel has to speak up.

You mean you want Marvel to speak up to Fox to get their ass in gear? Wolverine will start filming in 2 months. I hope this strike is averted.

 

[Docker2.0]

Yeah they are, well I guess that means no FF3 until 2010, which is where I think it was going to go anyway, with Tim taking the "loosers" gig over at WB.



You know that is true and my favorite all time hero is on the fast track, Thor the Son of Odin, its hammer time baby. And I just heard that they may be pushing Justice League over at WB, what is the deal with Singer, they can't wait too long on that project.



180 million, whoah. That is some serious paper. Marvel was supposed to bring their films in at around 100 million as they only have a 500 million revolving fund I think. What is the deal here... if these movies under perform it could sink Marvel's film division right off the bat.

Where did you get that figure from, you got a link. You know how we are with info around here Docker, gotta verify everything.

I believe it was Wizard magazine. But I may be wrong..........it may only be $160 million. Either way, it's a lot!

 

[Advanced Dark]

Yeah they are, well I guess that means no FF3 until 2010, which is where I think it was going to go anyway, with Tim taking the "loosers" gig over at WB.



You know that is true and my favorite all time hero is on the fast track, Thor the Son of Odin, its hammer time baby. And I just heard that they may be pushing Justice League over at WB, what is the deal with Singer, they can't wait too long on that project.



180 million, whoah. That is some serious paper. Marvel was supposed to bring their films in at around 100 million as they only have a 500 million revolving fund I think. What is the deal here... if these movies under perform it could sink Marvel's film division right off the bat.

Where did you get that figure from, you got a link. You know how we are with info around here Docker, gotta verify everything.

No they have a 525 million line of credit. Max budgets of 180 million per film no less than 65 per film. The movies are virtually assured to generate a profit after all is said and done and they are non-recourse loans. Zero financial risk to Marvel though if the slate as a whole fails they'd lose only the movie rights. LOL No risk IMO.

 

[phoenixflight]

Released in Japan on 9-21...and then China on 10-30! Will this movie make is to 300 mill. worldwide with only 20 mill left to go???

 

[Kelly]

I made a prediction awhile back of $285. If it goes over that, it won't be by much imo.

 

[Advanced Dark]

In Japan, Fox's "Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer" opened to an estimated $2.1 million from 542 screens. Its overall weekend tally was $2.2 million from about 600 screens for an international cume of $145.6 million.

Why does it seem like the total is not going up?

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com

If Mojo is right which does NOT included that 2.1 million:

Domestic: $131,779,552 47.2%
+ Foreign: $147,273,736 52.8%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

= Worldwide: $279,053,288

Then we'd be at 281,153,288.

However Mojo's #'s apparently don't add up. They're low too. LOL China's not included either. WTF?

 

[highguard]

I thought china does not open until October AD and by the way, how long does Marvel lose its film rights for if the movie tanks.

 

[Advanced Dark]

I thought china does not open until October AD and by the way, how long does Marvel lose its film rights for if the movie tanks.

Huh? Marvel doesn't lose any film rights if a movie tanks. If the entire slate tanks and Marvel can't payback the line of credit...then they'd lose the movie rights which Merill would probably sell to someone else. LOL That will never happen. Every single big budget Marvel film has turned a profit in theatres before DVD. Even The Hulk. So the odds of an entire slate filming are zilch. I"m assuming you're refering to Marvel Studio's films and not Fantastic Four which is a Fox Studios film.

 

[Kelly]

Yes it doesn't open in China until October.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Oh yeah. However...it seems the internation total has been at 145 way before this additional 2.1

 

[highguard]

.... I"m assuming you're refering to Marvel Studio's films and not Fantastic Four which is a Fox Studios film.

Of course, hmm, do they lose rights per character based on how the individual characters perform. If the whole stable has to fail that would be a pretty sweet deal on marvel's part but I doubt that is what it is.

Seems more likely that if Iron Man tanks then they could claim the rights to iron man. Marvel would be crazy to bundle the rights to all of their second tier characters in any deal.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Of course, hmm, do they lose rights per character based on how the individual characters perform. If the whole stable has to fail that would be a pretty sweet deal on marvel's part but I doubt that is what it is.

Seems more likely that if Iron Man tanks then they could claim the rights to iron man. Marvel would be crazy to bundle the rights to all of their second tier characters in any deal.

Just like I told you. One film failing doesn't prevent Marvel from paying back it's line of credit. Got it? It's like a massive credit card with only a catologue of films you can spend it on. You have to pay it back or lose the rights to the films. So let's say Iron Man flops and makes 50 million at the box office worldwide (LOL we know that won't happen), and then Hulk comes out and makes 600 worldwide...it makes no difference to Merill. As long as they get there money back. Now Marvel only has 525 million so they would have to go through the entire 525 million and not be able to pay any of it back before losing the rights to ALL of the films as a package. That aint happening. The movies are too different...too diverse and the genre is not going away. It's not a fad...it's a genre. All of Marvels big budget films have turned a profit. The market will always be there and the population in the demographic that enjoys these films is growing as well. As soon as the money starts rolling in it goes back to replenish the credit line to make more films. Iron Man cost around 160-186 million which would be over the limit at the high end so let's say 180 million towards the facitly, and Hulk cost less I believe around 150 million. For argument sake let's say 180 million. Marvel could make 3 180 million dollar films before they run out of money and if they all lost money all the rights would be lost. Keep in mind DVD revenue, tv rights, merchandise sales pretty much make it impossible for any of these big franchises to lose money. Perhaps if they made a 180 milion dollar Hawkeye film they might find themselves in trouble.

 

[Docker2.0]

Honestly AD, I'm not to thrilled about the budget of IM. $185 million for a movie about a 2nd tier hero?! Dont' get me wrong, as a Marvel maniac, I love it, but it's just to much for a hero like IM. Spidey, yes, but IM? Nah!

 

[Advanced Dark]

I don't consider Iron Man second tier. The character is a mainstay that needed to break out to the big screen. Marvel is treating it like a 1st tier. Not thinking so creates a glass ceiling. I think it's better Marvel hires the right talent and puts up the money needed to make this franchise work as opposed to underfunding it because they have no faith or are scared. The movie doesn't have to make huge profits in the theatre for Marvel to score big from Iron Man.

 

[Docker2.0]

I hope you are right. I just hope this movie doesnt fail cuase it doesn't bode well for Marvel's future movies if it does.

 

[Advanced Dark]

It's not gonna fail for God's sake. Everything we've seen has been golden. Just so you know even if it did fail it would not effect Marvel's future as a company or studio. THe slate would have to fail. Marvel's still gonna make the films bud and there is ZERO chance of them not making a profit when all revenue has been counted.

 

[highguard]

Just like I told you. One film failing doesn't prevent Marvel from paying back it's line of credit. Got it? ........

I love this deal for Marvel. A credit line that covers certain characters is an excelent financial instrument for Marvel.

That wiz kid that replaced Avi at Marvel aparently is not a doophus.

Avi should be proud he brought him in even though he engineered Avi's marginalization and took over.

And if he could look past the hurt of his protege's backstabbing ways lol I am sure he would.