Ant-Man Box Office Predictions

[Docker2.0]

This has got to be one of the most circular, pointless arguments I've seen in quite some time. People are just continually writing the same thing over and over, knowing full well that opinions aren't going to change. Can we just move on already?

Agreed! I've tried to go back and follow this argument but can't. People really need to drop it and move on.

If this movie has usual Marvel legs, I'm going to guess we'll see:

Domestic: $158 M
International: $365 M ($73 M China)
Worldwide: $523 M

Definitely sequel worthy under normal circumstances. It has a lot of internal competition though.

Hopefully you are right and that sounds very reasonable. $500M WW is a desirable goal.

 

[Mike Murdock]

Right. They did not expect to do as well.

But, it would be idiotic to suggest that they didn't hope for a break-out hit that connected with a larger portion of the superhero audience.

You have an odd definition of disappointment. If they did not expect it to do as well, I don't know why they would be disappointed it didn't do as well. Sure, they hoped it would, but that's quite different.

 

[Webhead38]

I think the results are reasonable give the current market of players for a Summer release. The only place where I disagree with the studio's thinking is releasing it during the summer. I think a fall release would have played better with these results, rather than the Summer which often commands bigger headlines from fans. My early thinking is Marvel might have felt the weekday numbers might hold better with kids still out of school. We'll see how much the film drops today and whether it can hold whatever it establishes for the week.

But it's my opinion that the Marvel brand definitely showed strength here from a generally unknown hero (if we're examining this from a general public perspective). I never expected numbers to exceed Cap or Thor, so it was a solid number that also benefits from good word of mouth. This could become a sleeper, so I believe the box office jury is still out. But a positive start nonetheless.

 

[Docker2.0]

Agreed. This should have come out during the holidays or fall. This was to much of an unknown to be a summer tentpole movie.

 

[Johnny-Oh]

The movie did pretty good, my disappointment comes from false expectations that GOTG gave me as far as how much a new property could make. But when you really think about it, its simply impressive that a movie named Ant Man isn't a flop lol

 

[Ragnaroknroll]

I liked the movie. That's all that matters to me.

The only reason Box Office is important is when a film you like makes enough money to justify funding a sequel.

 

[Heretic]

You have an odd definition of disappointment. If they did not expect it to do as well, I don't know why they would be disappointed it didn't do as well. Sure, they hoped it would, but that's quite different.

Compared to other films released by the same company recently, its box office is a disappointment. It shows that while the company has achieved incredible market penetration, their bottom base audience for the brand has barely grown since Incredible Hulk. That's all. Again, I'm sure they are pleased to make a profit off of the movie.

 

[Spiderdevil]

$100 million for worldwide prints and advertising is about the minimum for a big summer release, and by that I include a film of this size. The biggest of the big have worldwide P&A costs of $175-200 million. Some of that is one part of a muti-national corporation paying money to another part, so it's not necessarily all held against a film on the ledger books, but soaring P&A costs are one of the industry's biggest concerns.

Marketing is usually about 50% of production budget, so about 100m for a 200m million blockbuster, Ant-man cost 130m, plus a lot of marketing in inbuilt and covered by Disney/ABC so I won't be surprised if Ant-man's is something like 60m. 'The Avengers' marketing budget was 100m, and it was marketed like ****, no way Ant-man has the same marketing budget, maybe 50% of that

 

[Spiderdevil]

IMO Doctor Strange will be the really litmus test for Marvel's future brands, Ant-man was a safe, solo movie, Civil war is another ensemble which will make a minimum of 1 Billion to a maximum of 1.5 Billion, but Marvel will soon be done with their first Generation heroes after IW1 and IW2, thus Doctor Strange will show how much interest is in their newer brands and how will movies like Black Panther, Captain Marvel, Inhumans etc do

 

[Docker2.0]

IMO Doctor Strange will be the really litmus test for Marvel's future brands, Ant-man was a safe, solo movie, Civil war is another ensemble which will make a minimum of 1 Billion to a maximum of 1.5 Billion, but Marvel will soon be done with their first Generation heroes after IW1 and IW2, thus Doctor Strange will show how much interest is in their newer brands and how will movies like Black Panther, Captain Marvel, Inhumans etc do

I actually think Dr. Strange is quite possibly the safest bet in Phase 3. I'm not a Dr. Strange fan, have no plans to see it do the magic and satanic images and such but the fantasy part is where I think it's going to excel. They will probably make it very Harry Potter like except with an older cast.

 

[GL's Light]

Marketing is usually about 50% of production budget, so about 100m for a 200m million blockbuster, Ant-man cost 130m, plus a lot of marketing in inbuilt and covered by Disney/ABC so I won't be surprised if Ant-man's is something like 60m. 'The Avengers' marketing budget was 100m, and it was marketed like ****, no way Ant-man has the same marketing budget, maybe 50% of that

Marketing costs can be anywhere from 50% to 150% of a film's production budget. You need to be careful in discussions about marketing costs to discern domestic marketing from worldwide marketing. The 50% rule of thumb is more likely to apply to domestic marketing costs than worldwide marketing costs. As you'll see in the link below, Transformers: Age of Extinction had costs of $100 million for domestic marketing and distribution, almost 50% of its $210 million production budget.

$100 million was the figure Disney lined up in marketing support from partners. In other words they had the boon of $100 million worth of tie-in advertising paid for by their commercial partners on the film (Visa, Acura, Dr. Pepper, etc.) But it wasn't the total of what Disney spent themselves on worldwide prints and advertising.

See here for a THR article on prints and advertising costs.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

The worldwide gross should pass 400 m, maybe even 450 m.

Which isn't bad for a C-list (to the public) character.

Disney probably isn't enthusiastic about Ant-Man's box office but they might be relieved that the movie will be profitable even before it leaves theaters.

It's not an MCU break out monster but it's a solid hit.

 

[marcvader]

Did people really expect Ant-Man to make GotG money? I thought most people agreed it would be around the first Cap and Thor films which it appears will be the case.

 

[the dmg]

Did people really expect Ant-Man to make GotG money? I thought most people agreed it would be around the first Cap and Thor films which it appears will be the case.

This was my thinking as well. It didn't help that their initial marketing effort was the wrong approach too.

 

[Heretic]

Did people really expect Ant-Man to make GotG money? I thought most people agreed it would be around the first Cap and Thor films which it appears will be the case.

47 people in the poll predicted that it would be a blockbuster, with over 600 million worldwide. So, apparently some people did. I find it odd that the people who were most enthusiastic about the potential success have now either gone silent or are pretending that they knew all along that it wouldn't be a blockbuster.

However, the people that have been repeatedly ACCUSED of "expecting" the movie to make a bunch of money never actually said that. What myself and others have said is that while we EXPECTED numbers close to what we are getting, we HOPED for more to show a stronger base for Marvel's brand. No amount of clarifying has been effective in explaining the difference between expectations and hopes.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

47 people in the poll predicted that it would be a blockbuster, with over 600 million worldwide. So, apparently some people did. I find it odd that the people who were most enthusiastic about the potential success have now either gone silent or are pretending that they knew all along that it wouldn't be a blockbuster.

However, the people that have been repeatedly ACCUSED of "expecting" the movie to make a bunch of money never actually said that. What myself and others have said is that while we EXPECTED numbers close to what we are getting, we HOPED for more to show a stronger base for Marvel's brand. No amount of clarifying has been effective in explaining the difference between expectations and hopes.

That always happens. After GOTG, the "Marvel made a racoon and tree popular" was trotted out every time anyone showed doubt about the Phase 3 stuff. So now I guess Doc Strange is okay to make 55 million.

 

[Dark Raven]

Ant-Man seems like one of these films where people are sceptical of the concept to begin with and very unfamiliar with the character, and so might not give it a chance. But if they do, they find out that it is actually quite a good movie and that they would enjoy it more than they realise. But just getting people to watch it in the first place is the biggest hurdle. This is something a sequel would have less of a problem with if people are already familiar with the character by then.

I think that an Ant-Man sequel could potentially make more than the first Ant-Man film, because people would be familiar with the character by then and know what to expect going in. But of course, to get to a sequel in the first place, the first film has to do well enough. It's a catch 22 situation.

 

[Ragnaroknroll]

I think WOM will help Ant-Man. The important thing is that it is a good movie.

GOTG led to this "Marvel can't fail" mentality but really that was just an exceptional performer. All the right ingredients came together to make that a success. It's not reasonable to expect that for every single new property. That's like saying a Squirrel Girl movie will gross $600 million easy just because of the Marvel label. Doesn't work that way.

I do think Doctor Strange will perform better than Ant-Man however. Just my gut feeling.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I really hope the actuals have Ant-Man open narrowly to $60M. Remember when Age of Ultron was estimated with $188M in its opening weekend? Well, it actually opened $3M higher with $191M. Let's hope Ant-Man follows the same route with the actuals.

 

[Ragnaroknroll]

Ant-Man was the highest grossing film this weekend. Why did it completely disappear from the Rotten Tomatoes home page and is not listed under Top Box Office?

I guess they haven't updated that yet. I don't see Trainwreck there either.

 

[JtheDreamer]

Compared to other films released by the same company recently, its box office is a disappointment. It shows that while the company has achieved incredible market penetration, their bottom base audience for the brand has barely grown since Incredible Hulk. That's all. Again, I'm sure they are pleased to make a profit off of the movie.

Their bottom-base audience? Wuuuuuuuuuut?

It can't be a box office disappointment when it was budgeting for particularly this result and the results were IN-LINE with expectations. You can't be IN-LINE and a disappointment. Hoping has nothing to do with anything. You're putting words in their mouths.

47 people in the poll predicted that it would be a blockbuster, with over 600 million worldwide. So, apparently some people did. I find it odd that the people who were most enthusiastic about the potential success have now either gone silent or are pretending that they knew all along that it wouldn't be a blockbuster.

Then take it up with those 47 people and send them a private message. I don't even know why you care.

However, the people that have been repeatedly ACCUSED of "expecting" the movie to make a bunch of money never actually said that. What myself and others have said is that while we EXPECTED numbers close to what we are getting, we HOPED for more to show a stronger base for Marvel's brand. No amount of clarifying has been effective in explaining the difference between expectations and hopes.

Here you go again with the Brand. They turned a movie about a man who shrinks and talks to Ants and made it the No.1 movie in America, performing in-line with expectations. Ummm ya, I'd say their brand is just fine. You keep comparing it's BO performance with other Marvel films and it's not a 1-to-1 translation when considering budget and subject matter.

These were my last replies to you. It's impossible to have conversation with someone who's entire premise is based upon vague generalities and his "friends".

 

[Tony Stark]

Did people really expect Ant-Man to make GotG money? I thought most people agreed it would be around the first Cap and Thor films which it appears will be the case.

I saw a few posters on the box office forums predicting 85M, but most reputable boxoffice sites had it in the low 60's and below Thor and Cap, so this is just a bit below their expectation.

No one serious thought this was going to do GoTG numbers.

 

[Whiskey Tango]

Did people really expect Ant-Man to make GotG money? I thought most people agreed it would be around the first Cap and Thor films which it appears will be the case.

No one expected that kind of turnout except maybe for allowing for the possibility of a surprise hit or whatever. The problem is these people claiming that because it didn't draw GotG money it's somehow a failure or that this is somehow a tragic miscalculation on Marvel's part.

Or, in other words "We were really hoping for a failure here so we could point and laugh but it didn't happen so we'll just have to start manufacturing reasons to support our weird bias instead."

 

[GL's Light]

There was a cohort of very bullish Marvel supporters - and I'm talking individual posters here, not anyone who runs a major box office site - who thought that a $75 million domestic opening and a $600 million worldwide gross was the floor for an MCU release, but industry expectations were that Ant-Man would have a global launch of $115-125 million and the estimate is just a hair below that.

 

[OB12]

We could endlessly go round and round about the level of disappointment attached to this but maybe it is better realize where it succeeded. This movie clearly established the characters of Lang, Pym, and Van Dyne and defined the the power set of Ant Man in a funny action adventure. It also firmly entrenched two new heroes in the MCU. It did all of this and will likely turn a nice profit. Mission accomplished.