Ant-Man Box Office Predictions

[metaphysician]

They would never do that. Why would they spend up to $250 million on a project like that when this film can only pull about $55-$60 million OW?

They aren't going to do a whole prequel movie on the adventures of young Pym and Janet.

What makes you think they'd spend anywhere near 250M on it? They certainly didn't for the first movie.

 

[Heretic]

You're free to have a different opinion, but what you said her is just a false premise so if you don't expect people to react to that, or debate you based on a false premise then that might explain the reaction you're getting.

It's not a false premise. I simply was not talking about the same aspect that everyone else was, and some of you guys are demanding that I do so, to the point of lying about what I've said.

You guys were talking about the financial success of THIS MOVIE.
I was talking about what the opening weekend total says about the Marvel BRAND.

This is nothing new. There have been an infinite number of articles written about how strong the Marvel brand may or may not be. It was always kind of up in the air. Would Guardians have been such a blockbuster if it had been done by any other studio, or did its placement in the Marvel Cinematic Universe help it in a major way?

With Ant-Man, we had a lower budget, and therefore a shorter distance to profitability. Every product that is launched is aimed at penetrating as much of its market as possible, regardless of budget...and the question has always been how much market penetration does the Marvel brand give a product.

We now know that the Marvel brand may have SLIGHTLY more value than it did before the first Avengers. That doesn't mean that they are in trouble. It doesn't mean that the movie is not a success. It doesn't mean that the superhero bubble is about to burst. It just means that the Marvel brand has now come back down to Earth from the stratosphere that many in the industry and general public had placed it in.

As someone who deals with branding as part of my career, I find this disappointing. I find it worth talking about.

However, it is clear that most people here not only don't find it interesting, but reject the very concept that Marvel has brand identity at all! I find that LUDICROUS...but whatever. If you guys don't want to discuss it, then that's fine...but it's kind of absurd to be demanding that I stop being interested in the subject. So...just let it go. You can be interested in this movie's box office as a separate entity from other films, and I will still be interested in both this movie as an individual film as well as the overall Marvel brand. There is no need for either of us to attack each other over our different ways of looking at things.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Just move on already, Heretic. You're not saying anything new that you haven't said for the past day. This topic has been beaten to death and nothing you or anyone else is going change each other's opinion. At this point, your talking past people, not at or with them.

 

[JC00]

Obscure (at least with the average movie goer) Marvel character, smallest budget (production and promotion), makes $58m in its opening weekend where the #2 and #3 movies made $50m and $30m which took away kids (Animation) and adults (R-Rated comedy)

As far as solo character origin movies go for Marvel

Thor made $65m its OW and the #2 and #3 movies made $32m (Fast Five in 2nd week) and $14m (Jumping the Broom 1st week)

Captain America made $65m its OW and the #2 and #3 movies made $47m (Harry Potter DH 2) and $18m (Friends with Benefits)


But of course people will call it disappointing and a failure, they'll be the same people saying how Suicide Squad making $40m opening weekend was great.

 

[JKKS085]

Ha, I knew dalonewolf would get shown the door eventually

dalonewolf has been banned ?!??? Waouh ! *fake sarcastic shock*

And some people are still beating the same dead horse for the past 24hrs ?!??? *fake sarcastic shock, the sequel*
I mean at least when you want to make a point try to bring something new to elevate the debate. Speculating in loops without nothing to back up a shallow reasoning in the first place just makes for a tiresome read. And for the record I think it's an interesting subject, albeit a little off topic.

Back on the topic at hand, the actuals show a decrease on Saturday that is definitely not as good and promising as the -18% displayed by the Sunday estimates (actuals are down -22,4%). It is still very early but I'm afraid that despite a strong word of mouth, there's a real risk to see the films legs cut off by the competition, past and future (Pixels is apparently a dud but I can see MI5 hurting it badly with Minions and Inside Out still playing strong with family audiences). I wouldn't write 150M dom off just yet but it's definitely going to have to pick up some steam to get there.

 

[Spiderdevil]

Obscure (at least with the average movie goer) Marvel character, smallest budget (production and promotion), makes $58m in its opening weekend where the #2 and #3 movies made $50m and $30m which took away kids (Animation) and adults (R-Rated comedy)

As far as solo character origin movies go for Marvel

Thor made $65m its OW and the #2 and #3 movies made $32m (Fast Five in 2nd week) and $14m (Jumping the Broom 1st week)

Captain America made $65m its OW and the #2 and #3 movies made $47m (Harry Potter DH 2) and $18m (Friends with Benefits)


But of course people will call it disappointing and a failure, they'll be the same people saying how Suicide Squad making $40m opening weekend was great.

Exactly! What I said yesterday
Expecting Ant-man (130m) to open like GoTG (200m) is like expecting Suicide Squad to open like BvS

 

[third3ye]

I'm not that worried about the DBO numbers even after a sub-$60M OW. This movie has legs and isn't facing stiff competition for another couple weeks when MI Rogue Nation comes out (which isn't tracking that well). $500 WWBO is reachable and will put the film in the black, but I'd be surprised if it exceeds that materially. International performance is a bit suspect since the comedy elements won't translate that well overseas and given Rudd's comedy-heavy filmography, he's probably not that large of a draw in non-English speaking regions, though Douglas is certainly very recognizable globally. This is where the Marvel brand and Avengers halo effect need to kick into high gear.

If it does hit $500M, this is no failure. This shows Marvel can deliver a film that breaks even in theatrical with a fairly obscure character, questionable superpower appeal, and sub-par marketing effort. $500M would outgross the first Thor and be more profitable given that Thor cost $20M more in production than Ant-Man, excluding marketing.

 

[rashad]

This movie has legs.

Impossible to gauge that until we see how it holds up in it's 2nd week.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

OS actuals dipped a bit, too. Deadline:

3RD UPDATE, MONDAY, 2 PM PT: Actuals have rolled in from the studios with some (very) slight shifts afoot. Disney/Marvel’s Ant-Man dropped its opening overseas final to $55.4M from a projected $56.4M, giving it a weekend total of $112.6M, off slightly from the $114.4M estimated on Sunday. Still, it’s the No. 2 movie worldwide behind Universal’s mighty Minions which now has a confirmed offshore frame of $66.1M and a domestic haul of $49.2M for a global tally of $115.3M. The henchmen nevertheless had to settle for No. 2 internationally given China’s monster Monster Hunt which took $109M in its Thursday-Sunday opening session ($72M as reported by Rentrak for the F-S-S). For Universal, this is the 11th weekend in 2015 that the studio has had the No. 1 movie. Elsewhere, Ted 2, Terminator: Genisys and Magic Mike XXL dropped a touch, while Inside Out jumped for Joy with another $1M and The Gallows hung on for a bit more. Those titles, along with the other studio offerings and offshore local hits Monster Hunt, Pancake Man and Bajrangi Bhaijaan are updated throughout the below.

 

[Mike Murdock]

I hate when people don't check the Show Names option on the poll. It helps keep folk honest.

Well, it's about the overall prediction, not the opening week one. We're still a good way off on that. If there's enough posts and a part 2 thread opens, the poll will close. That'll help cut down on the cheating.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Read this little opinion article: http://www.cinemablend.com/m/new/-4-Big-Reasons-Ant-Man-Should-Considered-Success-72685.html.

 

[Flint Marko]

A movie about a guy who talks to Ants premiered number one at the box office in a weekend packed to the brim with competition, and here we are debating whether or not it is a success. Of course it is.

 

[Spiderine]

Too bad......thought it was a great film. Never expected it to be a blockbuster, but I did think it would have a stronger opening weekend.

I really didn't see him having a sequel anyways. But he will definitely be featured in future marvel films with other heroes. Guess thats all that matters in the end.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Compared to other films released by the same company recently, its box office is a disappointment. It shows that while the company has achieved incredible market penetration, their bottom base audience for the brand has barely grown since Incredible Hulk. That's all. Again, I'm sure they are pleased to make a profit off of the movie.

The comparison is not valid if you don't factor in the different budgets and the fact that the Marvel films are not identical in feel. A Capt America movie is not the same as an Iron Man movie or a Thor movie. Ant-Man being compared to Cap, Iron Man, and Guardians is comparing apples and oranges. If you expect an apple to make the same money as an orange....well you are going to be disappointed. But don't try to force everyone else to be disappointed just because you were using a bad method to form your expectations for this movie.

If you have a method for determining the "bottom base audience" I would love to hear what that is. Two months ago, a Marvel movie made 1.4 billion. How much of that is the base audience? For Ant-Man, what percentage of the 57m is the base audience? There are two months between the 2nd biggest Marvel movie and the 2nd smallest. How are you determining the base audience from this?

Interestingly, one of the local sports talk radio stations was just talking about Ant-Man. One of the guys was apparently getting a lot of twitter hate because he said JLA was Marvel. He apologized while saying he had no idea that Fantastic Four was Marvel and JLA was DC. This is the real general audience. Even the people "correcting" him were talking about a Fox movie. Not seeing any "brand" out there.

I think WOM will help Ant-Man. The important thing is that it is a good movie.

I wonder about that. I finally saw it and though I liked it, I wasn't blown away or laughing a lot. Good movie, but I would put it in the "worth seeing once" pile. It did have a decent amount of humor. Interestingly, my gf turned to me at one point and wondered why no one else in the theater was laughing.

GOTG led to this "Marvel can't fail" mentality but really that was just an exceptional performer. All the right ingredients came together to make that a success. It's not reasonable to expect that for every single new property. That's like saying a Squirrel Girl movie will gross $600 million easy just because of the Marvel label. Doesn't work that way.

I do think Doctor Strange will perform better than Ant-Man however. Just my gut feeling.

Agreed. Each of these movies are succeeding on their own merits. Many of them have almost nothing in common. Dr Strange certainly isn't like the rest of them.

We could endlessly go round and round about the level of disappointment attached to this but maybe it is better realize where it succeeded. This movie clearly established the characters of Lang, Pym, and Van Dyne and defined the the power set of Ant Man in a funny action adventure. It also firmly entrenched two new heroes in the MCU. It did all of this and will likely turn a nice profit. Mission accomplished.

That's true. It did do that much at least. Now they can fit into the MCU with ease. I even thought they made the name "Ant-Man" make more sense than I thought it would.

Yes, everyone knows that the budget was lower. You don't seem to understand the basics of how this works, so you have resorted to using insults in every single post. When a studio plans for a modest box office, they will STILL try to work every avenue to maximize ticket sales (because they aren't stupid)...and in cases where they get an incredible return on their money it isn't like they refund that money. Marvel also expected a modest success, but MAKE NO MISTAKE, they absolutely tried to work every avenue they could to maximize their profits. Because just because their expectations were low, that does not mean that their hopes and efforts weren't aiming higher.

You know what is better than making some money? Making A LOT of money. With the right property, Marvel could invest a little bit of money and make a lot of money in return. This will not be that movie.

If this means a movie is a "disappointment", then every movie is a disappointment. Every studio tries to get as many people as possible to see their movies.

I PAID to see this movie, you know. I have paid to see EVERY Marvel movie on opening weekend. I have repeatedly said that my disappointment in the box office is that it did not make MORE because I want Marvel to be MORE successful.

You should have opened this conversation with YOU being disappointed instead of insisting that everyone else had to consider it a disappointment too....

This is kind of silly. OF COURSE the box office for Ant Man is a disappointment.

That's so aggressive that you are going to get a negative reaction from people who don't share your personal disappointment.

 

[chamber-music]

Ant-Man opened at the UK Box Office with $6.2 million.

Ant-Man had a higher box office opening than Captain America: The First Avenger ($4.6 million) and The Incredible Hulk ($5.1 million).

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Some China release dates trickling across my twitter feed this morning. Terminator Aug 23, MI:RN Sep 8, Minions Sep 13, Pixels Sep 15...no sign of Ant-Man yet...

 

[JC00]

Exactly! What I said yesterday
Expecting Ant-man (130m) to open like GoTG (200m) is like expecting Suicide Squad to open like BvS

And at least Ant-Man didn't need to throw in a notable character to get people to the film. I would want to see the numbers on how many people are going to see the Suicide Squad just be The Joker is in it.

 

[The_Manhunter]

I do think Doctor Strange will perform better than Ant-Man however. Just my gut feeling.

I agree with this.

 

[Whiskey Tango]

Well, it's about the overall prediction, not the opening week one. We're still a good way off on that. If there's enough posts and a part 2 thread opens, the poll will close. That'll help cut down on the cheating.

I was referring more to being unable to mock the lil fellas who checked the Bomb! option.

That's so aggressive that you are going to get a negative reaction from people who don't share your personal disappointment.

Heretic? A negative reaction? Say it ain't so!

 

[Vincanws]

I agree with this.

Let's hope Benedict's Cumber*****es come out in force to support!

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$6.4 million Monday take.

 

[TeeKay]

I love it when people say this is the beginning of the downfall of Marvel Studios.

 

[rashad]

‏@BoxOffice
ANT-MAN took in $6.40M on Monday. 4-Day domestic total stands at $63.63M. #AntMan

 

[Wildcard]

I love it when people say this is the beginning of the downfall of Marvel Studios.

Haha yep, and they totally skim over this being Marvel's cheapest movie but their 12th straight #1 movie. t:

They're still doing great, this is a damn fine introduction for a new superhero most aren't familiar with.

 

[TheVileOne]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=minions.htm

Anyone still think Minions is a bomb? Tony Stark?