Transformers Box Office Thread

[DarthAlani]

Harry Potter will open big and than drop hard and get about 275 mil domestic.

 

[Nokio]

TF has great word of mouth. i'm not hearing anything negative about the movie save for the fan sites like hear or AICN. The general public is eating it up. I've seen it 5 times in AMC's largest theater and it's been sold out. Saw it yeaterday, went with a co worker and yes HP was out. I know one of the managers there and she said the film has been either selling out or the theater is at over 90 percent full since the release. I asked her about Potter, and she said they are going to split their two largest theaters between HP and TF and the next largest ones, but HP won't be getting both of the biggest theaters. Both hold like 430 people.

HP will be big no doubt but I don't think it's going to siphon away money from TF. HP will obviously be number 1 come sunday, but TF is going to be quite fine. Now as for who's going to make the most money, I'm not sure because TF and HP despite what some may think both appeal to the same demographic. Right now i can't say for sure who's going to come out on top domestically. I think HP will win WW gross, but Domestic, I'm not sure yet.

 

[Iron Man's Dad]

Jurassic Park sucked. The book ruled though. Let's use the Matrix as a comparison.

I know the book ruled, I read it several times, and JP could have been an even more awesome movie, if they stayed with the source.

Why should "we" use the Matrix as a comparison?

Please elaborate.

IMD

 

[Excel]

potter dropped a lot at night...now i would say look bewteen 44-48 for wednesday.

 

[Excel]

well some good news...potters nights werent as big as expected; it should between 38-42; transformer might just be over 6.

id say look for 6.5 wednesday.

 

[Erzengel]

one of the reasons movies are making more and more money these days is the increase in ticket prices, not increase in audience

imagine how much titanic would have made if it came out TODAY...

It's called inflation and by that rational Gone With the Wind would be the highest grossing movie ever.

 

[Erzengel]

Potters wedenesday will be between 45-50 million. bank on that ballpark.

Unlike them, IM actually looking at REAL numbers-theater averages and sell out lists. That is how I VERY ACURRATLY predicted transformers days last weekend. From the numbers, i said 8 million in the 8-12 showings and i was right; i said 28 million tuesdya andi was right, and i said nothing udner 25 on wednesday...and was right.

potter dropped a lot at night...now i would say look bewteen 44-48 for wednesday.

well some good news...potters nights werent as big as expected; it should between 38-42

fm should hire me

For someone who tries to come off like he's an expert, you just changed your guesstimate 3 times in 6 hours.

 

[Cth]

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But, you have a show that's been on for 20 years, that means there is still interest in this show.

It's possible, then again, FOX is free, versus paying $8+ to see a longer episode.

While not the exact same, look at stuff like The X-Files whose popularity was pretty widespread at the time.

A lot of people think Simpsons lost it around Season 3 or 4. Those same people are possibly going to be a source of bad WOM.

It's hard to say how it'll perform, but it needs to offer something new if it's going to ask people to pay that much to watch a longer episode.

 

[CFlash]

It's possible, then again, FOX is free, versus paying $8+ to see a longer episode.

While not the exact same, look at stuff like The X-Files whose popularity was pretty widespread at the time.

A lot of people think Simpsons lost it around Season 3 or 4. Those same people are possibly going to be a source of bad WOM.

It's hard to say how it'll perform, but it needs to offer something new if it's going to ask people to pay that much to watch a longer episode.

Unless of course it's just really really funny.

 

[Erzengel]

I was reading Toyfare last night and they said how the Simpsons was going to be PG-13 because of possible language and Bart being naked, so I think they are going to at least try and step this up.

 

[user123456789]

It's called inflation and by that rational Gone With the Wind would be the highest grossing movie ever.

yea i know

so?

im just sayin

all these new all-time highest grosses

crock of sh1t

 

[GhostPoet]

Wow..Transformers is a money making machine!!!!

 

[blind_fury]

fm are way off. ill prove it right now.

1. 39 opening day + 76 weekend=115. 128-115=13 million.

Their saying it gets maximum of 13 million on thursday? That would be a 67% drop. Spidey fell 46%. Take my word, it's happening.

2. 13 on thursday followed by 76 weekend? Ok, so it increases 80% to 23.4 million and gets a weekend multiplier over 3.

chalk theseup as facts-it aint increasing over 40% on friday (they say 80) and it wont get i an over (they have getting im over 3).

they totally, 110%, made up these numbers and ill accept your apology when you figure that out.

Potters wedenesday will be between 45-50 million. bank on that ballpark.


Unlike them, IM actually looking at REAL numbers-theater averages and sell out lists. That is how I VERY ACURRATLY predicted transformers days last weekend. From the numbers, i said 8 million in the 8-12 showings and i was right; i said 28 million tuesdya andi was right, and i said nothing udner 25 on wednesday...and was right.

fm should hire me

The numbers are realistic.

wed - 39
thur - 20
fri - 23
sat -26
sun - 21

HP never had a chance at 50 m on a Wednesday. Spider-man always has bigger openings and only made 40 m on a Wednesday when SM2 opened during the summer.

 

[FCEEVIPER]

For someone who tries to come off like he's an expert, you just changed your guesstimate 3 times in 6 hours.

I believe it's called damage control.

 

[Erzengel]

Estimates are in Harry Potter made $45 million. So congrats Excel 2 out of 3 of your guesses was accurate.

TF made $6,995,000 bringing it to $180 million.

 

[tviceman]

well some good news...potters nights werent as big as expected; it should between 38-42; transformer might just be over 6.

id say look for 6.5 wednesday.

Wow you changed your prediction 3 times in the same day.

Harry Potter doing $160 million in the first 5 days? Ha! <yeah right>
Harry Potter crushing Transformers domestically? Ha! <yeah right>

 

[Excel]

For someone who tries to come off like he's an expert, you just changed your guesstimate 3 times in 6 hours.

those "guesstimates" are based of theaters reports and sell outs i see; thier actual numbers of the $$$ the films made and I try to figure out where its heading for a total.

The things I should they should hire me for are my predictions before it opens.

That said; looks my initial thoughts were correct: Potter did just under 45 million yesterday; Transformers did just under 7 million.

if you MUST know; these were my final potter predicts on from monday.

"Wednesday: 42.5 million
Thursday: 21.25 million -50%
Friday: 26.5 million +25%
Saturday: 30.0 + 10%
Sunday:22.3 -25%

Opening weekend: 78.8
5 day: 142.5 million

 

[Erzengel]

Hey feel free to make whatever predictions you want.

I just find it funny that you seem so proud of how you "predicted" TF's box office last week and then you make your predictions for Harry Potter and then change it 3 times in 6 hours.

But instead of saying, "whoops I should have stuck with my initial guess", you have to spin it "looks like my initial thoughts were correct."

 

[tviceman]

those "guesstimates" are based of theaters reports and sell outs i see; thier actual numbers of the $$$ the films made and I try to figure out where its heading for a total.

The things I should they should hire me for are my predictions before it opens.

That said; looks my initial thoughts were correct: Potter did just under 45 million yesterday; Transformers did just under 7 million.

if you MUST know; these were my final potter predicts on from monday.

"Wednesday: 42.5 million
Thursday: 21.25 million -50%
Friday: 26.5 million +25%
Saturday: 30.0 + 10%
Sunday:22.3 -25%

Opening weekend: 78.8
5 day: 142.5 million

Then pick a number and stick with it because when you change your prediction 6 different times in 3 days it doesn't look credible and when you get one of those 6 guesses right, it's not really all that amazing. 1/6 isn't good in anything.

 

[Excel]

Hey feel free to make whatever predictions you want.

I just find it funny that you seem so proud of how you "predicted" TF's box office last week and then you make your predictions for Harry Potter and then change it 3 times in 6 hours.

But instead of saying, "whoops I should have stuck with my initial guess", you have to spin it "looks like my initial thoughts were correct."

Umm...dude those are not predictions. I see rough numbers EARLY and try to figure out what is going to total. There is a difference between estimating a total and just guessing. Guessing are the numbers are posted; estimates are the 3 numbers I guess I changed yesterday.

Way to know your talking about.

 

[Excel]

Then pick a number and stick with it because when you change your prediction 6 different times in 3 days it doesn't look credible and when you get one of those 6 guesses right, it's not really all that amazing. 1/6 isn't good in anything.

what are you talking about? when i was saying "harry heading for 38-42 million" or "harrys heading to 46-48 million" those are not predictions. Predictions are just guesses based on marketing and what you think will happen. Just to clarify these were MY predictions;

"Wednesday: 42.5 million
Thursday: 21.25 million -50%
Friday: 26.5 million +25%
Saturday: 30.0 + 10%
Sunday:22.3 -25%

Opening weekend: 78.8
5 day: 142.5 million

When I was saying "Potters heading for 45 million" ect. that was based on early theater average I was recieving. Average those out and see that it has 33 million-roughly-heading into 5 P.M. I said matinees should be strong; looks good for 45 million +. The averages just didn't go up the way I felt they would so my estimates dropped. Again, yall are just fans who dont know what your talking about; dso i mid as well not even waste my time trying to help yall out.

 

[Erzengel]

Umm...dude those are not predictions. I see rough numbers EARLY and try to figure out what is going to total. There is a difference between estimating a total and just guessing. Guessing are the numbers are posted; estimates are the 3 numbers I guess I changed yesterday.

Way to know your talking about.

Potters wedenesday will be between 45-50 million. bank on that ballpark.

Unlike them, IM actually looking at REAL numbers-theater averages and sell out lists. That is how I VERY ACURRATLY predicted transformers days last weekend. From the numbers, i said 8 million in the 8-12 showings and i was right; i said 28 million tuesdya andi was right, and i said nothing udner 25 on wednesday...and was right.

potter dropped a lot at night...now i would say look bewteen 44-48 for wednesday.]

well some good news...potters nights werent as big as expected; it should between 38-42

those "guesstimates" are based of theaters reports and sell outs i see; thier actual numbers of the $$$ the films made and I try to figure out where its heading for a total.

The things I should they should hire me for are my predictions before it opens.

That said; looks my initial thoughts were correct: Potter did just under 45 million yesterday; Transformers did just under 7 million.

if you MUST know; these were my final potter predicts on from monday.

"Wednesday: 42.5 million
Thursday: 21.25 million -50%
Friday: 26.5 million +25%
Saturday: 30.0 + 10%
Sunday:22.3 -25%

Opening weekend: 78.8
5 day: 142.5 million

Definition for prediction:

1. [noun] the act of predicting (as by reasoning about the future)
   Synonyms: anticipation, prevision
2. [noun] a statement made about the future
   Synonyms: foretelling, forecasting, prognostication

 

[Erzengel]

Again, yall are just fans who dont know what your talking about; dso i mid as well not even waste my time trying to help yall out.

Yeah, send out your resume to Fantasy Moguls now.

 

[Excel]

see ita, i told you it was 9 million i am looking at todays numbers...its head for an additional 28 million or so thus far in tuesday could go even higher!

that was from july 3rd. Before any numbers were reported.

2/2

Suck. On. That.

 

[Excel]

Yeah, send out your resume to Fantasy Moguls now.

This

""Wednesday: 42.5 million
Thursday: 21.25 million -50%
Friday: 26.5 million +25%
Saturday: 30.0 + 10%
Sunday:22.3 -25%

Opening weekend: 78.8
5 day: 142.5 million"

will be a closer than this:

WEDNESDAY ESTIMATE: 'Harry Potter 5' with a record-breaking Wednesday w/$39M-$42M; 5-day target of $128M and Fri-Sun of $76M!