The Marvels Box Office Thread

[Comicbookguy339]

I'd rather see them work solely on X-Men team movies. Solo mutant movies would make the wait longer for X-Men sequels. Also not every X-Men isn't going to get a solo movie, so to make it fair for every X-Men, just develop them in the team movies.

X-Men are just like the Avengers. Some characters are more solo-worthy than others.

 

[psylockolussus]

X-Men are just like the Avengers. Some characters are more solo-worthy than others.

Sure. But a solo movie for the Wolverine, Storm, Gambit, Cyclops would just make wait longer for X-Men 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. Beyond those characters I just mentioned, solo movies would be limited anyway to the bigger characters - as i doubt a solo movie for Iceman, Beast, Jean and Rogue could gross over $200 million in North America. Then what about the likes of Nightcrawler, Angel, Psylocke, Colossus, Jubilee, etc?

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Sure. But a solo movie for the Wolverine, Storm, Gambit, Cyclops would just make wait longer for X-Men 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. Beyond those characters I just mentioned, solo movies would be limited anyway to the bigger characters - as i doubt a solo movie for Iceman, Beast, Jean and Rogue could gross over $200 million in North America. Then what about the likes of Nightcrawler, Angel, Psylocke, Colossus, Jubilee, etc?

Having Captain America, Iron Man and Thor movies inbetween Avengers movies didn't have a detrimental effect. Besides, they'll probably expand the X-line of movies anyway with things like New Mutants, Excalibur and X-Force.

 

[psylockolussus]

Having Captain America, Iron Man and Thor movies inbetween Avengers movies didn't have a detrimental effect. Besides, they'll probably expand the X-line of movies anyway with things like New Mutants, Excalibur and X-Force.

Well those three mutant teams aren't solo films. I'd swap EXcalibur with X-Factor. But even with the splinter teams, there would be a limit to how many movies they could launch. I doubt Marvel Studios, could release movies for the X-Men, New Mutants, X-Force and X-Factor in a span of two to four years without the audience being overloaded with mutant films.

Also Captain America, Thor and Iron Man are different from the Wolverine, Cyclops and Gambit. The first three have their own rogues gallery/mythos. The only X-Men chracter that managed to have an ongoing comics series for years is the Wolverine because he's the most popular X-Men character. Gambit had plenty of comics as well but they aren't as eXpansive as Iron Man, Cap and Thor. Another one is Deadpool and he isn't eXactly a X-Men member to begin with anyway.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

International numbers continue to look bleak.

 

[psylockolussus]

Lets just hope it does better post opening weekend.

November and December don't really have a lot of offerings imo, that looks more appealing for the public, than this. Hunger Games prequel, Trolls, Aquaman 2, Wonka, Renaissance and few films I'm forgetting.

 

[Filmfreak]

The box office predictions at Box Office Pro continue to drop. At this point I expect The Flash kind of numbers.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Jeeze. At this pace The Marvels might only beat the opening weekends of The Incredible Hulk, Ant-Man, Captain America The First Avenger and Thor. But it could also make less than all of these.

 

[psylockolussus]

Just awful.

This could lead to fewer female led superhero films, and will definitely kill a Captain Marvel 3.

November is going to be a brutal month for Marvel Studios.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Just awful.

This could lead to fewer female led superhero films, and will definitely kill a Captain Marvel 3.

November is going to be a brutal month for Marvel Studios.

And it's not like we have a lot of those coming up. By my count Supergirl is the only one and that is still years and years away.

Edit: I forgot about Madame Web but I'm thinking we're all better off forgetting about Madame Web.

 

[psylockolussus]

Madame Web is probably going to be a 1 and done. Unless it surprises everyone.

The boX office tracking of this just made me realize that Photon's role in WandaVision and the Ms. Marvel aren't propelling more people to watch a Captain Marvel movie. So all this world building and cross over aren't working this time.:deadpan: They should have just called it Captain Marvel 2, rather being bold with "The Marvels".

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Madame Web is probably going to be a 1 and done. Unless it surprises everyone.

The boX office tracking of this just made me realize that Photon's role in WandaVision and the Ms. Marvel aren't propelling more people to watch a Captain Marvel movie. So all this world building and cross over aren't working this time.:deadpan: They should have just called it Captain Marvel 2, rather being bold with "The Marvels".

And that might be true for other characters that have been introduced in the TV shows as well which puts Marvel in a very tough position. The idea was to carry these TV characters over to the movies but if the general audience doesn't care about them then what do you do?

 

[psylockolussus]

And that might be true for other characters that have been introduced in the TV shows as well which puts Marvel in a very tough position. The idea was to carry these TV characters over to the movies but if the general audience doesn't care about them then what do you do?

Like I've suggested before cancel them all. Though thats unlikely, since Agatha, Echo and Ironheart have been filmed already. Another Daredevil TV show will not do any wonders imo. So they probably should release it as a movie. VisionQuest is probably gonns suffer a drop of interest from WandaVision.

The performance of this should be an eye opener for Disney/Marvel. I understand that making these shows are to drive people to subscribe to Disney+, but if it's affecting the boX office numbers of their upcoming Mcu films which are the bread/butter of Marvel Studios... then they really cannot continue pumping out these shows every few months. These shows are eXpensive to make anyway. 2021 to 2023 is such a short time for people to be losing interest in the MCU. Spider-Man No Way Home was just breaking records early 2022 and Guardians really had good legs last summer. Yet here we are.

Films like Avengers The Kang Dynasty and Avengers Secret Wars should at least gross a billion each, especially if they plan to include 50 to 100 characters in those films...

 

[psylockolussus]

From what I've seen online, this has a 220 million production budget. So 660 million worldwide (3x of its production budget) would be acceptable but anything less than that, in the same year that Ant-Man 3 grossed less than 500 million will be a bad look.

Disney and Feige will have a big meeting about this neXt month. The underperformance of this probably won't help a Captain America movie without Chris Evans as well. And I'm assuming they are now releasing it first before Deadpool.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

From what I've seen online, this has a 220 million production budget. So 660 million worldwide (3x of its production budget) would be acceptable but anything less than that, in the same year that Ant-Man 3 grossed less than 500 million will be a bad look.

Disney and Feige will have a big meeting about this neXt month. The underperformance of this probably won't help a Captain America movie without Chris Evans as well. And I'm assuming they are now releasing it first before Deadpool.

Even 660M worldwide might not be enough. Last year's Marvel movies all had an average marketing budget of 150M. 220+150=370M. Movie theaters take roughly half so the movie would need to make around 740M WW just to break even.

 

[psylockolussus]

Even 660M worldwide might not be enough. Last year's Marvel movies all had an average marketing budget of 150M. 220+150=370M. Movie theaters take roughly half so the movie would need to make around 740M WW just to break even.

I think 3x its production budget could be use a good eXcuse or a good measure of its success, and there will be more money coming from digital sales, streaming, sponsorships and merchandise.

From my recollection, marketing budget isn't being discussed much unless websites report and analyze the profits of a film.

Ant-Man 3 costs at least 200 million (production) and wasn't even near 600 million. So just looking at basic numbers, it underperformed. $660 million for The Marvels, with $220 million being thrown out there as its "budget" wouldn't be seen bad, well at least to me.

 

[Filmfreak]

And the actual budget for The Marvels is 275 million. They're lucky that they had that deduction that put it in the 220 million area.

I think there are numerous factors as to why box office seems to have plumped that low, but I doubt any other title for the film would make that much of a difference.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

I think 3x its production budget could be use a good eXcuse or a good measure of its success, and there will be more money coming from digital sales, streaming, sponsorships and merchandise.

From my recollection, marketing budget isn't being discussed much unless websites report and analyze the profits of a film.

Ant-Man 3 costs at least 200 million (production) and wasn't even near 600 million. So just looking at basic numbers, it underperformed. $660 million for The Marvels, with $220 million being thrown out there as its "budget" wouldn't be seen bad, well at least to me.

Deadline did just that for blockbusters of last year. Doctor Strange 2 had a marketing budget of 150M, Thor Love and Thunder had a marketing budget of 160M and Black Panther Wakanda Forever had a marketing budget of 140M.

And while I agree that there's more money to be made besides boxoffice, a 660M WW cume would mean that the movie will fail to make a profit theatrically. But it's all moot because The Marvels is not getting anywhere near 660M it seems.

 

[psylockolussus]

Ive seen that 275 million number but Disney got the 55 million back from the Uk government, so I'm counting the 220 million as the official budget (production).

As for profit reports, I don't care much for it. I'm sure these production budget aren't always accurate so as profit reports. Who knows if these studios are really disclosing the actual budget to the public when these numbers are thrown out there. But I'm just looking at the basic numbers which are the reported production budget and boX office numbers.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

I always like to share the Hot Ones video of Matt Damon explaining how much money a movie needs to make in order to break even. Marketing budget is absolutely a factor.

 

[psylockolussus]

I doubt any other title for the film would make that much of a difference.

Maybe not. But I also don't like the title and the film is called Captain Marvel 2 in China. Someone in there must have noticed the odd title and changed it for marketing reasons.

Another eXample of a superhero film with a bad title is Dark PhoeniX. I don't live in America but when I saw the film it was called X-Men Dark PhoeniX, and I was like why they didn't just call it X-Men Dark PhoeniX for the rest of the world?

And when Disney released it digitally and home media, they later changed the title to X-Men Dark PhoeniX.

 

[psylockolussus]

I always like to share the Hot Ones video of Matt Damon explaining how much money a movie needs to make in order to break even. Marketing budget is absolutely a factor.

Of course it matters, but many films we think are successful, are probably flops/underperformers if we add in the marketing budget (which are rarely reported anyway).

Also, Deadline had some inconsistent numbers in the past about Amazing Spider-Man 2, and they were proven wrong when the Sony leaks occured. so I don't put much stock to their profit reports, I We really don't know the profits of these films, unless studio themselves hand out their every earning of each films, or we look at their bank account which is impossible.

 

[Iceman]

Another eXample of a superhero film with a bad title is Dark PhoeniX. I don't live in America but when I saw the film it was called X-Men Dark PhoeniX, and I was like why they didn't just call it X-Men Dark PhoeniX for the rest of the world?

And when Disney released it digitally and home media, they later changed the title to X-Men Dark PhoeniX.

I also think you should have the parent project in the title, like Avengers: Endgame rather than just Endgame. And even more so for projects that are less widely known like Fox Men across the wider casuals in the GA.

 

[Iceman]

The boX office tracking of this just made me realize that Photon's role in WandaVision and the Ms. Marvel aren't propelling more people to watch a Captain Marvel movie. So all this world building and cross over aren't working this time.:deadpan: They should have just called it Captain Marvel 2, rather being bold with "The Marvels".

It’s different crossing over characters from shows to film headliners like Thor of course. Disney needed this to get eyes on it so more people would want to check out the shows who haven’t already. A shame if it doesn’t work out.

 

[Chris B]

I'm holding out hope that this exceeds expectations and has a decent box office run. In spite of that not looking likely at the moment.