The Marvels Box Office Thread

[Comicbookguy339]

The obvious weak links in the near future are Cap 4, Thunderbolts, Blade and Armor Wars. That means they absolutely need to get the Avengers, Fantastic Four and X-Men movies right. If any of those fall apart then they would be in real trouble.

 

[psylockolussus]

Hmmm if Marvel Studios managed to bring back actors who were part of flopping Marvel franchises (Spider-Man/X-Men) in the 2020s. Marvel Studios can still turn things around, if there would be a film that is going to flop as hard as Fant4stic, Morbius and Dark PhoeniX, they have so many ips to take advantage of.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Long Range Box Office Forecast: RENAISSANCE: A FILM BY BEYONCÉ and SILENT NIGHT

This week's report takes a preliminary glance at the first weekend of 2023's final month, currently scheduled to see two wide releases during the usual post-Thanksgiving lull.

www.boxofficepro.com

BoxofficePro has lowered their forecast yet again.

45-62M opening weekend (was 45-67) and 109-156M total (was 109-169).

 

[Comicbookguy339]

It's interesting that the Hollywood trades are still sticking with their 70-80M OW number.

 

[Zyraquis]

they haven’t bothered to update yet, it’s getting clearer that preview is not getting better; it’s actually getting worse by comparison.

between this and Indiana Jones mega bombs, plus other minor bombs and disappointments, Disney’s movie business is going to lose a lot of money this year.

 

[HammerDown]

Long Range Box Office Forecast: RENAISSANCE: A FILM BY BEYONCÉ and SILENT NIGHT

This week's report takes a preliminary glance at the first weekend of 2023's final month, currently scheduled to see two wide releases during the usual post-Thanksgiving lull.

www.boxofficepro.com

BoxofficePro has lowered their forecast yet again.

45-62M opening weekend (was 45-67) and 109-156M total (was 109-169).

Getting worse by the update. Anyway 156M domestic total? Is this even cracking 400M worldwide…

 

[Filmfreak]

they haven’t bothered to update yet, it’s getting clearer that preview is not getting better; it’s actually getting worse by comparison.

between this and Indiana Jones mega bombs, plus other minor bombs and disappointments, Disney’s movie business is going to lose a lot of money this year.

Disney has become too comfortable with its IPs, thinking they sell themselves, to the point there's barely any effort put anymore.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

@HammerDown

It's indeed looking like it might miss 400M WW.

 

[Filmfreak]

Yeah, based on the projections I think 350 million is the ceiling.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Yeah, based on the projections I think 350 million is the ceiling.

Would make it second lowest grossing MCU film worldwide. Would also become the biggest sequel drop WW (TFA->TLJ was 736.9M and Alice in Wonderland->Through the Looking Glass 726M).

 

[Comicbookguy339]

In China The Marvels has apparently sold less than 1/7 of the tickets Guardians 3 had sold by the same time and The Marvels has twice as many showings.

 

[Filmfreak]

Would make it second lowest grossing MCU film worldwide. Would also become the biggest sequel drop WW (TFA->TLJ was 736.9M and Alice in Wonderland->Through the Looking Glass 726M).

If it ends up like that it will be very reminiscent of the Alice films because both the percentage and the actual money gross drop is similar. At least with Star Wars it was a 35% off in the sequel. We're talking about 65-70% decrease here.

 

[Dede]

There’s a legitimate chance this is the lowest grossing mcu film which I can’t fathom

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Lowest (adjusted) domestic grossing MCU movies:
Eternals $166.9M
Black Widow $185.9M (day and date on Disney+)
Incredible Hulk $197.7M
Ant-Man Quantumania $214.5M

Captain Marvel (2019) adjusted box office: $490.7M

See also: MCU Box Office

 

[OrbOfConfusion]

To play devil's advocate: not that I'm overly excited for The Marvels- I don't plan to see it anytime soon- or rooting for its downfall, but is there a chance it does surprisingly well opening weekend?

This isn't a great comparison, but Shang-Chi had pretty low early tracking in the 30-50 million range, but then went on to around 70 million or so. That's the exception and not the norm, I know.

 

[Iceman]

The obvious weak links in the near future are Cap 4, Thunderbolts, Blade and Armor Wars. That means they absolutely need to get the Avengers, Fantastic Four and X-Men movies right. If any of those fall apart then they would be in real trouble.

Yeah, going to be doom and gloom around here if any of those fail. Can only hope Marvel right the ship before any of those are about to release so they get the audiences they need.

 

[Iceman]

Long Range Box Office Forecast: RENAISSANCE: A FILM BY BEYONCÉ and SILENT NIGHT

This week's report takes a preliminary glance at the first weekend of 2023's final month, currently scheduled to see two wide releases during the usual post-Thanksgiving lull.

www.boxofficepro.com

BoxofficePro has lowered their forecast yet again.

45-62M opening weekend (was 45-67) and 109-156M total (was 109-169).

Why does it keep going down? (that's the wrong way )

 

[Filmfreak]

To play devil's advocate: not that I'm overly excited for The Marvels- I don't plan to see it anytime soon- or rooting for its downfall, but is there a chance it does surprisingly well opening weekend?

This isn't a great comparison, but Shang-Chi had pretty low early tracking in the 30-50 million range, but then went on to around 70 million or so. That's the exception and not the norm, I know.

From my experience of box office projections, when they keep dropping each week the film doesn't have much chance of recovering. And Boxoffice Pro is usually accurate about Marvel movies.

It's all about legs that require good reviews and word to mouth, but from everything we've heard this looks like a very messy, studio mending movie so I don't think think it's going to have that either.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Why does it keep going down? (that's the wrong way )

Because right about now presales should be picking up and they're just not.

 

[HammerDown]

To play devil's advocate: not that I'm overly excited for The Marvels- I don't plan to see it anytime soon- or rooting for its downfall, but is there a chance it does surprisingly well opening weekend?

This isn't a great comparison, but Shang-Chi had pretty low early tracking in the 30-50 million range, but then went on to around 70 million or so. That's the exception and not the norm, I know.

Shang-Chi had great reviews and scored 92% on RT. The word out on this is that it isn’t good so that will be definitely an issue.

 

[Iceman]

Would make it second lowest grossing MCU film worldwide. Would also become the biggest sequel drop WW (TFA->TLJ was 736.9M and Alice in Wonderland->Through the Looking Glass 726M).

Hmm, that isn't the best accolade to have.

 

[psylockolussus]

The obvious weak links in the near future are Cap 4, Thunderbolts, Blade and Armor Wars. That means they absolutely need to get the Avengers, Fantastic Four and X-Men movies right. If any of those fall apart then they would be in real trouble.

Some of the obvious weak links won't be weak links if Disney chop them while they still can...

If The Marvels will struggle at the boX office - Thunderbolts and Armor Wars probably would as well. And unlike Blade, I doubt those films can be done with a budget lower than $100 million. Captain America 4 could open in summer, if Disney decides to move it there which would be in the film's favor.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Autumn Box Office Blues: ‘Freddy’s At $19M+ Leads ‘Dune’-Less Frame As Strike Continues – Sunday Update

Box Office: 'Five Nights at Freddy's' Leads Near 2023 Low Weekend

deadline.com

It can be argued that part of the expected slowdown next weekend with the opening of Disney/Marvel Studios’ The Marvels stems from the studio’s inability to promote the pic properly at a Comic-Cons. Even if a strike settles this weekend, it’s not clear whether the pic’s cast will be able to attend the movie’s “fan event” in Las Vegas this coming week. It would not be shocking if we see The Marvels charting one of the lowest openings for a Marvel Studios movie next weekend in November with less than $70M –lower than 2021’s The Eternals ($71.2M)— the movie not only a sequel to 2019’s Captain Marvel but also a crossover from Disney+ series, Ms. Marvel. Presales for Captain Marvel are pacing behind that of Black Adam and The Flash were here (those respective openings at $67M and $55M).

Even the trades are starting to admit that things are not looking good. BoT trackers are now thinking that the Thursday previews may fall below 6M and I think when that happens we're looking at an OW below 40M (so Morbius territory).

Make no mistake, both WB and Sony are looking at this in horror. If a flagship MCU sequel can completely crash and burn then what chance do Madame Web, Kraven and Venom 3 have? Same goes for DC. I'm sure that so far WB has been able to rationalize their string of flops due to the fact that the DCEU is perceived as a dead universe and the characters are all c-tier or even below that. But now there's a real chance of their rebooted universe imploding as well. If I was Gunn then I'd seriously contemplate focusing on The Brave & the Bold and Supergirl Woman of Tomorrow after Superman Legacy instead of trying to put out things like Swamp Thing or The Authority.

 

[Filmfreak]

I'm sure DC is going to have a very similar experience next month.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

I'm sure DC is going to have a very similar experience next month.

DC is used to it at this point.