The Marvels Box Office Thread

[OrbOfConfusion]

WB and Sony have their own box office woes to consider, and not like Sony has let the results of Morbius slow them down, especially when they also have Spider-Verse. Plus with DC in particular, audiences have shown apathy all year round, so Aquaman 2 potentially not doing that well won't exactly be a surprise.

WB and Sony may face similar results in the months and years ahead, but they aren't the ones releasing The Marvels. It's Marvel and Disney who ought to actually be concerned given how they've been on top of the world for so long, but of their MCU films so far, audiences didn't respond well to Quantumania, and their only surefire hit so far has been Guardians 3. I get that folks want to shift the discussion when Marvel is looking like they're about to get a black eye, but The Marvels potentially being a dud is on them, not Warners and Sony.

 

[Filmfreak]

DC is used to it at this point.

Oh definitely, and after The Flash I'm sure they expect anything, but this time it will probably happen to a sequel to a billion dollar film and their biggest superhero movie ever. It's going to be a new low.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

WB and Sony have their own box office woes to consider, and not like Sony has let the results of Morbius slow them down, especially when they also have Spider-Verse. Plus with DC in particular, audiences have shown apathy all year round, so Aquaman 2 potentially not doing that well won't exactly be a surprise.

WB and Sony may face similar results in the months and years ahead, but they aren't the ones releasing The Marvels. It's Marvel and Disney who ought to actually be concerned given how they've been on top of the world for so long, but of their MCU films so far, audiences didn't respond well to Quantumania, and their only surefire hit so far has been Guardians 3. I get that folks want to shift the discussion when Marvel is looking like they're about to get a black eye, but The Marvels potentially being a dud is on them, not Warners and Sony.

I just figured it was given that Disney and Marvel are in panic mode. Wasn't even arguing that Sony and WB have something to do with this. All I'm saying is that if The Marvels bombing is indicative of audiences rejecting superhero movies in general then Sony and WB are in big trouble as well.

 

[psylockolussus]

Sony Marvel movies that Marvel Studios has no business with, should be done a long time ago. Imagine a reality in the vast madness of the Multiverse where there is no Venom 2018, Morbius 2022, Venom 2, Madame Web and Venom 3, or if Disney just got the Spider-Man film rights in 2014 or 2015.

I don't care if Spider-Verse movies were successful (I didn't enjoy those 2 movies mostly because of the animation style). But the more, people are eXposed with movies likes of Venom, Morbius, Kraven and soon Madame Web, the more chances they wouldn't even be interested in other mcu films that aren't titled Spider-Man and Avengers. I doubt many people care if a Marvel movie is produced by Marvel Studios, there are a lot of people (especially non fans) who see all these films merely as Marvel movies.

 

[psylockolussus]

I just figured it was given that Disney and Marvel are in panic mode. Wasn't even arguing that Sony and WB have something to do with this. All I'm saying is that if The Marvels bombing is indicative of audiences rejecting superhero movies in general then Sony and WB are in big trouble as well.

They should be in panic mode. This is their bread and butter especially with no Star Wars film ready to be released in the neXt few years. PiXar isn't as strong as it was before and how many remakes of Disney animated films at this point as can be as successful as The Lion King/Beauty and the Beast? Aside from Frozen... I guess they still have Avatar, but we are all going to be 84 years when they finally released Avatar 5.

They are officially in a crisis.:hundred: If this doesn't get better for the neXt 2 years, those planned Avengers films would be in trouble hitting a billion at the boX office in 2026/27.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Interesting that Eternals actually had a rather high opening weekend internal multiplier. I remembered that being true for Shang-Chi (the estimates kept going up throughout the weekend) but not for Eternals.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

If that 65M international opening weekend number holds then The Marvels will at least cross 100M worldwide next weekend even if domestic falls slightly under 40M. But this would still be a 75% drop compared to Captain Marvel's WW opening weekend (455M).

 

[Filmfreak]

Wasn't Quantumania the first MCU flop though? The studio lost more than 100 million from its theatrical run.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Wasn't Quantumania the first MCU flop though? The studio lost more than 100 million from its theatrical run.

Black Widow, Shang-Chi and Eternals all lost money as well but those were pandemic era films so they get a pass. I have no idea why he's not counting Quantumania though. I guess you could argue that Quantumania was a "disappointment" while The Marvels is a "flop/bomb".

 

[Filmfreak]

Black Widow, Shang-Chi and Eternals all lost money as well but those were pandemic era films so they get a pass. I have no idea why he's not counting Quantumania though. I guess you could argue that Quantumania was a "disappointment" while The Marvels is a "flop/bomb".

Yeah I meant outside the pandemic. Did Shang Chi lose money too? I remember reading it was slightly profitable because of a lower budget than usual, but I could be wrong.

I guess maybe he means in the sense of absolute disaster that maybe not even home media can save, but Quantumania still clarifies as a flop. Actually technically now that I think about it the first MCU box office bomb came very early with The Incredible Hulk but the franchise was much smaller those days. Anyway, semantics.

 

[psylockolussus]

$450+ million for a $200 million is an underperformance imo. X-Men 3 almost performed similarly (numbers wise) but I didn't see major publications calling it a flop back in the day.

A flop would be something closer to its (reported) production budget, like less than $300 million worldwide is a flop, in which nobody can spin it to defend the flop film.

 

[psylockolussus]

If that 65M international opening weekend number holds then The Marvels will at least cross 100M worldwide next weekend even if domestic falls slightly under 40M. But this would still be a 75% drop compared to Captain Marvel's WW opening weekend (455M).

If this flops, I just don't want 8 digits (less than 100,000,000) in North America over all. But yikes Marvel Studios is going to have their worst week this weekend huh.

I just hope the reviews would make up for it, so the film would have smaller drops.

 

[HammerDown]

If that 65M international opening weekend number holds then The Marvels will at least cross 100M worldwide next weekend even if domestic falls slightly under 40M. But this would still be a 75% drop compared to Captain Marvel's WW opening weekend (455M).

If this gets panned by the critics then 350M worldwide total seems like a strong possibility.

Domestically it’s looking worse and worse. Probably heading to a final total of around 150M… Internationally it’s scoring on its opening weekend about half of what Quantumania did and that finished with a total of 261M… so you guys do the math…

 

[Comicbookguy339]

If this gets panned by the critics then 350M worldwide total seems like a strong possibility.

Domestically it’s looking worse and worse. Probably heading to a final total of around 150M… Internationally it’s scoring on its opening weekend about half of what Quantumania did and that finished with a total of 261M… so you guys do the math…

If it opens to ~100M WW it won't even reach 300M.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

$450+ million for a $200 million is an underperformance imo. X-Men 3 almost performed similarly (numbers wise) but I didn't see major publications calling it a flop back in the day.

A flop would be something closer to its (reported) production budget, like less than $300 million worldwide is a flop, in which nobody can spin it to defend the flop film.

Back in the day you also had insane home video sales that made up for an underperofmrance at the box office.

 

[Iceman]

Autumn Box Office Blues: ‘Freddy’s At $19M+ Leads ‘Dune’-Less Frame As Strike Continues – Sunday Update

Box Office: 'Five Nights at Freddy's' Leads Near 2023 Low Weekend

deadline.com

Even the trades are starting to admit that things are not looking good. BoT trackers are now thinking that the Thursday previews may fall below 6M and I think when that happens we're looking at an OW below 40M (so Morbius territory).

Make no mistake, both WB and Sony are looking at this in horror. If a flagship MCU sequel can completely crash and burn then what chance do Madame Web, Kraven and Venom 3 have? Same goes for DC. I'm sure that so far WB has been able to rationalize their string of flops due to the fact that the DCEU is perceived as a dead universe and the characters are all c-tier or even below that. But now there's a real chance of their rebooted universe imploding as well. If I was Gunn then I'd seriously contemplate focusing on The Brave & the Bold and Supergirl Woman of Tomorrow after Superman Legacy instead of trying to put out things like Swamp Thing or The Authority.

Yep, all these studios seeing the projected numbers for Marvels are going to be pretty scared. The safety net seems to have gone even from Marvel. Who knows how low numbers could go for unknown properties set in universes that didn't take off at all.

 

[Iceman]

If this flops, I just don't want 8 digits (less than 100,000,000) in North America over all. But yikes Marvel Studios is going to have their worst week this weekend huh.

I just hope the reviews would make up for it, so the film would have smaller drops.

Not so long ago I would have been looking for a $100m domestic opening weekend, not overall total!

Yeah hopefully the reviews can at least be some saving grace and help a little. Hard to recover much from such a poor start though.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Besides the film basically having 3 lowly-watched Disney+ shows as its lead-in, the biggest issue with this film is that Marvel lost every marketing/promotional avenue they use to generate traction/buzz for their films due to the SAG strike. The main one they lost was SDCC, which is typically the biggest jumping off point and buzz generator for all their films releasing in the next 8-10 months. They then lost out on fan events both domestically and internationally that they also hit on a yearly basis to rev up the fanbase.

There's also now no press tour with the cast hitting every known talk show and media outlet for 2-3 weeks straight. That would have been huge for them since the cast feels very likeable and could easily have sold audiences on the film. The last one is no red carpet premiere, which is another big opportunity to get coverage/press with all the media that covers it and then plasters entertainment websites and social media with cast interviews and their reactions. Without those, they're down to TV spots and social media to carry out the brunt of the marketing push, which just doesn't help cut through the negativity that's been growing the past few years.

 

[OrbOfConfusion]

And talking about TV spots and social media clips, feels like they've gone into overdrive just to compensate lack of cast promotion. It feels like the levels of The Amazing Spider-Man 2 where that film just put so much out there like the movie was the second coming of Thanos.

 

[Zyraquis]

The social media buzz unfortunately has been about it is going to bomb hard, which I think kind of feeds into those who are 50/50 to decide to pass on it. Also those fans and general audience alike with D+ at home to wait a few months since it is not an event movie, no hype, no must see factor.

Now it is looking at gross = cost in best case scenario.

 

[Mysteryman]

Besides the film basically having 3 lowly-watched Disney+ shows as its lead-in, the biggest issue with this film is that Marvel lost every marketing/promotional avenue they use to generate traction/buzz for their films due to the SAG strike. The main one they lost was SDCC, which is typically the biggest jumping off point and buzz generator for all their films releasing in the next 8-10 months. They then lost out on fan events both domestically and internationally that they also hit on a yearly basis to rev up the fanbase.

There's also now no press tour with the cast hitting every known talk show and media outlet for 2-3 weeks straight. That would have been huge for them since the cast feels very likeable and could easily have sold audiences on the film. The last one is no red carpet premiere, which is another big opportunity to get coverage/press with all the media that covers it and then plasters entertainment websites and social media with cast interviews and their reactions. Without those, they're down to TV spots and social media to carry out the brunt of the marketing push, which just doesn't help cut through the negativity that's been growing the past few years.

I really appreciate that you mentioned the SAG strike. People seem to be forgetting about that.

 

[psylockolussus]

Back in the day you also had insane home video sales that made up for an underperofmrance at the box office.

Disney is probably taking that into account,when they spend $200 million in a single movie. There's digital sales, streaming revenue (Disney+), merchandise, third party deals.

Hollywood might have lost big numbers from DVD sales, but it didn't cause them to lower the budget for their tentpole movies, hence why there's still plenty of movies that cost$200 million and above.

 

[Iceman]

Disney is probably taking that into account,when they spend $200 million in a single movie. There's digital sales, streaming revenue (Disney+), merchandise, third party deals.

Hollywood might have lost big numbers from DVD sales, but it didn't cause them to lower the budget for their tentpole movies, hence why there's still plenty of movies that cost$200 million and above.

Also the supportive effect on Disney +, which needs high profile content.

 

[Iceman]

Besides the film basically having 3 lowly-watched Disney+ shows as its lead-in, the biggest issue with this film is that Marvel lost every marketing/promotional avenue they use to generate traction/buzz for their films due to the SAG strike. The main one they lost was SDCC, which is typically the biggest jumping off point and buzz generator for all their films releasing in the next 8-10 months. They then lost out on fan events both domestically and internationally that they also hit on a yearly basis to rev up the fanbase.

There's also now no press tour with the cast hitting every known talk show and media outlet for 2-3 weeks straight. That would have been huge for them since the cast feels very likeable and could easily have sold audiences on the film. The last one is no red carpet premiere, which is another big opportunity to get coverage/press with all the media that covers it and then plasters entertainment websites and social media with cast interviews and their reactions. Without those, they're down to TV spots and social media to carry out the brunt of the marketing push, which just doesn't help cut through the negativity that's been growing the past few years.

Yeah, all huge things to lose in the build up to a CBM that helped the past ones.

 

[Zyraquis]

The problem is that Disney is losing big money in both theatrical and streaming platforms. The movie business is cannibalized by streaming (on top of waning audience interest in key franchises) and streaming is not making any return to justify it. It needs to revisit the current business model.