Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office

[SomeOldGuy]

Monday actuals come in at $8.9 million, still very good. $318.7 million WW running total through yesterday.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Not to get all in the weeds but those are kind of BS comps. Vol. 1 came out in August with schools off, and Vol. 2 had a 9.8 hold off a 147 opening, versus 8.9 off of 118 for 3. Percentage-wise (vs Sunday) they are very close (-72 for 3 vs -75 for 2). Vol. 3 is doing fine.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Early Tuesday estimate is $11 million domestic. Wednesday will be interesting to watch. Closer it is to Monday the better.

 

[TheVileOne]

Not to get all in the weeds but those are kind of BS comps. Vol. 1 came out in August with schools off, and Vol. 2 had a 9.8 hold off a 147 opening, versus 8.9 off of 118 for 3. Percentage-wise (vs Sunday) they are very close (-72 for 3 vs -75 for 2). Vol. 3 is doing fine.

They also came out before a global pandemic messed up the whole theatrical ecosystem even further.

Monday actuals come in at $8.9 million, still very good. $318.7 million WW running total through yesterday.

I mean going by these numbers it's likely going to surpass Quantumania by next weekend.

I guess the question is can it reach $800 million worldwide?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

They also came out before a global pandemic messed up the whole theatrical ecosystem even further.



I mean going by these numbers it's likely going to surpass Quantumania by next weekend.

I guess the question is can it reach $800 million worldwide?

Yeah, absolutely we are in a different box office era now, the extent to which it recovers, if it ever does, remains to be seen. I’d say 800 is in play but we’ll see. Competition (F&F) comes up soon too.

 

[psylockolussus]

Hmm.

With how No Way Home performed (Covid was still a thing at that time by the way), I don't think we should use it as an eXcuse anymore especially in 2023. Super Mario Bros. Movie also has recently outgrossed the previous GOTG movies.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

For comparison, Vol. 1 did $11.9M and Vol. 2 did $12M.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Looking good for half a billion WW by Sunday.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

They also came out before a global pandemic messed up the whole theatrical ecosystem even further.



I mean going by these numbers it's likely going to surpass Quantumania by next weekend.

I guess the question is can it reach $800 million worldwide?

Any idea how much it needs to earn to be considered a success?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Hmm.

With how No Way Home performed (Covid was still a thing at that time by the way), I don't think we should use it as an eXcuse anymore especially in 2023. Super Mario Bros. Movie also has recently outgrossed the previous GOTG movies.

I don’t think covid per se has a big impact at this point, but the pandemic clearly impacted viewing habits and theater going. Lots of people upgraded their home entertainment systems during the pandemic and are now paying for multiple streaming services. They are much more comfortable waiting to watch new movies at home now. It further doesn’t help that studios are training audiences not to go to the theater, because the worse the box office is, the sooner a film moves to PPV and streaming on one of those services they are already paying for. The best thing that Disney could do for Guardians is make it clear it won’t be available for purchase until at least, say, August, and won’t be on Disney plus before 2024.

 

[Zyraquis]

Its impact on first viewing could be pretty small if the word of mouth ranges from good to great since MCU, regardless current narratives, still has a decent built in fan base. But streaming almost certainly has an impact on repeated viewings than before. In the past one didn’t know when/if a MCU movie would be made available on a streaming platform; now they can count on it for sure if they have a D+ sub. Say if a movie I would see 3 times in the theater in the past, I may just go twice now and wait a couple of months to see as many times I want on TV because I know it will be part of my D+ sub with no extra cost.

just a personal anecdote I probably would have seen Wakanda Forever twice in theater has it not for my D+ sub.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Sounds like Vol. 3 is headed for $7M+ Wednesday, which means it's showing really good legs heading into the weekend.

 

[TheVileOne]

Any idea how much it needs to earn to be considered a success?

It's hard to say because studios always keep their real budgets and profit figures behind lock and key, and they also try to use Hollywood Accounting to try and move the money around.

If the film does indeed have a $250 million budget, which likely means at least $100 million in P&A, it will probably need at least $700 million worldwide if not more to start breaking even.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

It's hard to say because studios always keep their real budgets and profit figures behind lock and key, and they also try to use Hollywood Accounting to try and move the money around.

If the film does indeed have a $250 million budget, which likely means at least $100 million in P&A, it will probably need at least $700 million worldwide if not more to start breaking even.

It's not going to need that as L&T had a similar budget and it made the studio over $100M while taking in $760M at the box office.

 

[psylockolussus]

I don’t think covid per se has a big impact at this point, but the pandemic clearly impacted viewing habits and theater going. Lots of people upgraded their home entertainment systems during the pandemic and are now paying for multiple streaming services. They are much more comfortable waiting to watch new movies at home now. It further doesn’t help that studios are training audiences not to go to the theater, because the worse the box office is, the sooner a film moves to PPV and streaming on one of those services they are already paying for. The best thing that Disney could do for Guardians is make it clear it won’t be available for purchase until at least, say, August, and won’t be on Disney plus before 2024.

Still, there's a Super Mario movie in 2023 grossing over $500 million (and a billion worldwide).

Obviously streaming + post pandemic habits are factors, but if people really want to watch a movie in a theater several times, they will. No Way Home is a big eXample for this.

 

[TheVileOne]

It's not going to need that as L&T had a similar budget and it made the studio over $100M while taking in $760M at the box office.

Once again, Hollywood accounting.

 

[TheVileOne]

Still, there's a Super Mario movie in 2023 grossing over $500 million (and a billion worldwide).

Obviously streaming + post pandemic habits are factors, but if people really want to watch a movie in a theater several times, they will. No Way Home is a big eXample for this.

There are many examples of movies that have done fairly well post-pandemic, but it has still been a detrimental factor.

Plus Super Mario Bros. and No Way Home had unique factors going for them that pushed them that high. Those movies created perfect storms to achieve those levels.

 

[Iceman]

For comparison, Vol. 1 did $11.9M and Vol. 2 did $12M.

So same ballpark, cool.

 

[Iceman]

I don’t think covid per se has a big impact at this point, but the pandemic clearly impacted viewing habits and theater going. Lots of people upgraded their home entertainment systems during the pandemic and are now paying for multiple streaming services. They are much more comfortable waiting to watch new movies at home now. It further doesn’t help that studios are training audiences not to go to the theater, because the worse the box office is, the sooner a film moves to PPV and streaming on one of those services they are already paying for. The best thing that Disney could do for Guardians is make it clear it won’t be available for purchase until at least, say, August, and won’t be on Disney plus before 2024.

Agreed. For eg I saw IW 10 times in the cinema but couldn’t imagine getting anywhere close to that now even if I loved a film more. I haven’t rewatched a single film in the cinema since the pandemic and have missed a fair few I definitely wanted to see (unlike my habits over the last couple of decades).

 

[psylockolussus]

There are many examples of movies that have done fairly well post-pandemic, but it has still been a detrimental factor.

Plus Super Mario Bros. and No Way Home had unique factors going for them that pushed them that high. Those movies created perfect storms to achieve those levels.

So are you saying Guardians of the GalaXy Volume 3 lacked something that both Super Mario/No Way Home has/had. Okay. That should eXplain why this isn't outgrossing the previous GOTG movies.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Still, there's a Super Mario movie in 2023 grossing over $500 million (and a billion worldwide).

Obviously streaming + post pandemic habits are factors, but if people really want to watch a movie in a theater several times, they will. No Way Home is a big eXample for this.

Nothing I said precludes a big blockbuster happening. If you have a hook like Avatar or Tom Cruise it can happen. People will come out. But that’s never been Guardians.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Looks like 7.1 for Wednesday. Good number. Hope for a sub-50% drop this weekend remains alive.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Agreed. For eg I saw IW 10 times in the cinema but couldn’t imagine getting anywhere close to that now even if I loved a film more. I haven’t rewatched a single film in the cinema since the pandemic and have missed a fair few I definitely wanted to see (unlike my habits over the last couple of decades).

Yeah, same. I didn’t catch Wakanda Forever in theaters, for example, and I’ve got five credits piled up on my Cinemark account. I guess I just kind of got out of the habit during the pandemic.

 

[Iceman]

So are you saying Guardians of the GalaXy Volume 3 lacked something that both Super Mario/No Way Home has/had. Okay. That should eXplain why this isn't outgrossing the previous GOTG movies.

Most films ever released lacked something NWH had lol. It's 7th all time worldwide without China where it would have been huge! I reckon it would have been 3rd all time if it had China.