A look at release schedule would lead one to think winter 2011 is the logical date. I think WB would be very, very foolish to stick in summer 2012. If they do, we will be in for another Batman Begins type run at best.
Sherlock Holmes 2 will do well wherever W.B. want to put it, its the sequel to a popular film.
That's nonsense. Average Joe doesn't know who Thor is and yet that will be the tentpole to open summer 2011.
1st of all, if people think Thor is doing anything major at the box office, they will be sorely dissappointed when it opens.
2nd, Thor doesnt have 5 previous films, including one just a few years ago, that are still fresh in audiences mind's.
The Star Trek franchise was toxic and certified dead. Yet Paramount put the reboot in the second weekend of May slot and went on to be a huge blockbuster.
Trek is a good example, but the problem is it is pretty much the only example.
The 2nd weekend of May is usually the kiss of death, anyone who follows the box office knows that. However, it needs to be noted that Star Trek had one of the greatest marketing campaigns, if not THE greatest, of last year. Superman is certainly capable of having one equal to it, but I do not think it is a good idea to bank on it. Remember, WB. stuck Superman Returns on July 4th thinking they'd have some summer action epic to market. Instead, they got a dark, retro looking, actionless film that was a hard sell. W.B. will not want to be in that position again.
Superman in May, I will concede, could certainly work (though not in 2012), but I just feel it would have much better chances of finding big success around Christmas.