Deadpool Deadpool Box Office Prediction Thread

[antonydelfini]

300 million would be great.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

This has every chance of being the superhero version of Scott Pilgrim.

Everyone was talking about how people were going to come out for it and ended up disappointing.

 

[Steelsheen]

This has every chance of being the superhero version of Scott Pilgrim.

Everyone was talking about how people were going to come out for it and ended up disappointing.

yeahhhh SP BO was kinda an anomaly. but its a classic now. lets just chalk that up to it being ahead of its time.

 

[The Endless]

Deadpool could very well be another Scott Pilgrim. Especially with the R rating and polarising nature of the character.

But **** it I'm just happy its being made.

 

[MakeMinesMarvel]

Enough to green light Cable & Deadpool sequel and X-Force spin-off

 

[Weather Witch]

Today I heard some classmates of mine talk about how excited they were about Deadpool and I didn't even know they watched comic book movies. I think this movie is getting quite a bit of early buzz.

 

[def28]

This has every chance of being the superhero version of Scott Pilgrim.

Everyone was talking about how people were going to come out for it and ended up disappointing.

Pilgrim was friggin awesome, but don't confuse vocal fans with popularity. Deadpool is hitting 5 mil views just with rating announcements a year before it's out and has been trending strong on all areas of social media. Pretty sure the interest is stronger here even this early in the game.

While I'm not saying this is gonna open like other big budget marvel films, Deadpool has had much more exposure in mainstream comics, games, films, cartoons and internet trending for the past decade then Pilgrim did.

 

[JP]

The current hype for Deadpool is on the level of Guardians of the Galaxy around the same point in it's production. Not saying Deadpool will make that much, as the R-rating sort of prevents that. BUT, to compare it with Scott Pilgrim doesn't work. That movie was incredible, but it never reached this kind of hype. Plus, Scott Pilgrim just wasn't as popular.


The test footage, btw has a collective 16+ million views across various youtube videos. You know how much the first Guardians of the Galaxy trailer has? 17.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

500 - 600 million worldwide.

 

[def28]

The test footage, btw has a collective 16+ million views across various youtube videos. You know how much the first Guardians of the Galaxy trailer has? 17.

That's insane!

 

[TheComicbookKid]

Pilgrim was friggin awesome, but don't confuse vocal fans with popularity. Deadpool is hitting 5 mil views just with rating announcements a year before it's out and has been trending strong on all areas of social media. Pretty sure the interest is stronger here even this early in the game.

While I'm not saying this is gonna open like other big budget marvel films, Deadpool has had much more exposure in mainstream comics, games, films, cartoons and internet trending for the past decade then Pilgrim did.

But that's fans worldwide right?

I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer. There's hype but I don't think there's gonna be a enough to tell until the trailer hits.

It reminds me of the fact media says Mad Men is "the end of the era" yet it's the Walking Dead that is pulling down 15 million. Mad Men is talked about by 4 or 5 million max.

 

[Flint Marko]

Deadpool could very well be another Scott Pilgrim. Especially with the R rating and polarising nature of the character.

But **** it I'm just happy its being made.

I don't know man, if this lives up to half the hype it's a guaranteed hit. I'm saying this thing hits 450 million world wide no problem, and that's me being a little on the conservative side.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

We can't compare this to Scott Pilgrim.

Deadpool is an icon.

I see him in various stores at the mall.

Anyway, I want 500 m, but I'll predict 400 m.

 

[def28]

Hoping for more but I'm thinking round 400 as well. Though if this pulled in 200-300 that would still be a big hit given the budget.

But that's fans worldwide right?

I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer. There's hype but I don't think there's gonna be a enough to tell until the trailer hits.

Don't think it matters if it's worldwide though. JP posted the total numbers right above you. It's hitting pretty big trailer numbers just off of a rating announcement which shows alot of interest. People have the leaked footage too, which has kicked things up and been received very well. Right now I just don't see anything to hint at anything other then a pretty stellar reaction I guess.

As others also said, I don't think that an indie comic like Scott Pilgrim and a mainstream Marvel one like Deadpool have the same things going for them in either popularity or marketing at this point. In comparison to the other big comic films, Deadpool is doing pretty good on the hype side of things.

 

[Weather Witch]

I am also predicting about 400 mil. Things are looking great so far and I think Deadpool is good for it. The movie will probably also do pretty well on DVD.

 

[The Endless]

I'd still be happy with 200-300 million. Even 150 million would technically be successful though.

 

[psylockolussus]

Kingsman so far earned $370 million worldwide and thats just amazing. I did not expect that movie to earn that much especially the buzz for it when the 1st trailer came out was like zero and its YouTube trailer views compare to X-Men and Fantastic Four are really low. While the buzz for Deadpool is completely the opposite and we have yet to get a trailer. So maybe more than $400 million worldwide. We'll see.

 

[BattleCat]

It's a Ryan Reynolds movie, so it will be a bomb. Under $50 million.

Lol, I actually thought it's Ryan Reynolds, no way this makes bank, but superhero stuff sells. It will lose out on quite a bit of dough because of the lack of parents and children in the audience. This is a tough guess. 100- 150 Million range.

 

[BattleCat]

We can't compare this to Scott Pilgrim.

Deadpool is an icon.

I see him in various stores at the mall.

Anyway, I want 500 m, but I'll predict 400 m.

An icon?

 

[psylockolussus]

Lol, I actually thought it's Ryan Reynolds, no way this makes bank, but superhero stuff sells. It will lose out on quite a bit of dough because of the lack of parents and children in the audience. This is a tough guess. 100- 150 Million range.

Is that worldwide? If it is, then you are truly underestimating the film. Even if it underperformed, there's no way its just gonna gross under 150 million. Like I said, Kingsman already earned 370 million worldwide, so this one might perform like that since its getting a February release date too and have the same target market. Deadpool has a good online presence as of the moment and I think that should be a good sign and Fox is marketing this early so that should also help. Then bring in the X-Men connection, thats another big plus.

 

[The Endless]

An icon?

I wouldn't go that far. But he's definitely the most popular Marvel character outside your main Avengers, Spider-Man and Wolverine. I guess the GotG are above him now actually due solely to the movie.

 

[Zarex]

The production team and Reynolds appear to be doing everything right in terms of casting, costuming, and tone. But what are the reasonable comps for this? Looking at relatively low budget comic book adaptations over the past five years that are either R rated and/or humorous we've got:



Kick Ass - 2010
$48M DOM $96M WW

The Green Hornet - 2011
$99M DOM $228M WW

Dredd - 2012
$13M DOM $36M WW

Kick Ass 2 - 2013
$29M DOM $61M WW

The Wolverine - 2013
$132M DOM $415M WW

Kingsman - 2014
$123M DOM $370M WW


Average of these is $74M DOM, $201M WW which would pretty much guarantee a sequel.

 

[The Endless]

The Wolverine wasn't R rated in the cinema was it?

 

[Zarex]

The Wolverine wasn't R rated in the cinema was it?

No, but it had enough similarities to Deadpool - well known Marvel character known for extreme acts of violence, relatively low budget - that I thought it made sense as a comp.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

I'm shocked hardly anyone thinks this could make 300-500 million?! I guess the R rating won't make it easy.