Deadpool Deadpool Box Office Prediction Thread

[Rocketman]

Oh my god, $130 million for the four-day weekend? That has to be three times as much as Fox was expecting hahaha.

 

[-Arya-]

Hopefully this will push Fox to make a Wolverine film with the yellow suit. No more holding back.

 

[CaptainCanada]

Hopefully this will push Fox to make a Wolverine film with the yellow suit. No more holding back.

I don't think that's going to be something they draw from this. Deadpool is an inherently goofy character; putting him in a goofy-looking suit doesn't potentially detract from anything.

 

[-Arya-]

I don't think that's going to be something they draw from this. Deadpool is an inherently goofy character; putting him in a goofy-looking suit doesn't potentially detract from anything.

Characters don't need to be goofy in order to have faithful costumes. We are now in an age where costumes look exactly like the comics. It's their loss if they don't want to do it.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I was sad when Mangold revealed that test audiences didn't even respond to Wolverine's costume tease in the cut footage. Apparently most of the GA are unaware. WE need the suit NOW!

 

[Sithborg]

I'm more saddened about the cutting of the ninja fight...

Anyone remember when we thought a $75 forecast was crazy thinking?

 

[chamber-music]

Deadpool is not just the most faithful Fox Marvel film but one of the most faithful comic films in general. This and the failure of Fan4stic should finally drill into Fox that letting these characters hit their potential leads to a bigger success and more marketable characters for them.

And most importantly, hire someone who actually cares about these characters being well represented on screen. That was Reynolds goal from the start and it shows.

Even if the execs don't understand the characters they should still be looking for people that do to adapt them to the movies.

We have had 16 years of consistent comic book movies now. Audiences are far more open to embracing adaptions close to the comic than they were over a decade ago.

The problem with the X-Men movies is/was that the filmmakers were trying way too hard to not make them look like a superhero movie with colorful costumes. Deadpool (and to a lesser extent, X-MEN FC and the future scenes in X-MEN DFOP) have changed all that.

I think it was understandable a little back when the first couple movies were made because the big budget superhero trend was only just starting.

With FC, DOFP and Apocalypse it seem Fox is finally warming up to the idea that superhero comic material isn't something you need to be scared of. Saying that the fantastic four abomination last year made it look like they may not have learned their lesson. Hopefully Deadpool's success means they finally embrace the source material now instead of being almost apologetic about it.

Oh my god, $130 million for the four-day weekend? That has to be three times as much as Fox was expecting hahaha.

And to think they didn't even want to make this movie.

 

[Symbiotic]

After the final numbers are in, I'd like to see a promo image of Deadpool holding 2 signs. The first sign would have the 4-day numbers on it, and the other would have "HI, TOM!" spray-painted in all caps.

 

[Blade X]

Could somebody please let BladeX in again?

1. Funny how I get an "infraction" for trolling the "we want an R rated superhero movie" crowd (who got upset because I stuck to my guns/opinion about how this movie should have been rated PG-13), but you can troll me and no one will bat an eye or give you an infraction. Gotta love the hypocrisy and whiny nature of SOME people who post on comic book message boards.

2. Even though I disagree with the creative decision to make this a movie a hard R, I have repeatedly said that I think that this movie would be a huge hit at the box office and I am happy for the movie. So this isn't a "ha ha, Blade X was wrong" moment.

3. The excellent marketing campaign,the filmmakers embracing and remaining faithful (for the most part) to the source material,and the fact that this movie is a comedy (as well as DP being such a likable and funny character) are the main reasons why this movie is a huge hit, NOT the R rating.

4. This movie would have made even more money if it was rated PG-13. And let's not kid ourselves, the main reason why the studio allowed this movie to be R rated is because they most likely didn't expect this movie to be a hit (and to a lesser extent, wanted this movie to flop). It's pretty apparent that the executives and producers of the X-films had a disdain for and/or were embarrassed by for the original source material for the X-Men (and the FF), which is why they didn't try to be faithful to superhero costumes (except for Storm) or powers of the characters, and only went the generic Hollywood route with these characters.

 

[Mjölnir]

Characters don't need to be goofy in order to have faithful costumes. We are now in an age where costumes look exactly like the comics. It's their loss if they don't want to do it.

I still think we have more deviation from the comics in terms of costumes than exact replicas. Plenty of things inspired by them, but not as directly from the comics as Deadpool's.

I expect Wolverine in the yellow spandex outfit as much as I expect Cap's scaly costume with standout head wings. I don't think it's going to happen.

 

[CaptainCanada]

Characters don't need to be goofy in order to have faithful costumes.

No, but my point is that saying that a goofy character can translate will not assuage concerns about putting a character who is meant to be gritty in a bright yellow costume.

We are now in an age where costumes look exactly like the comics.

Name the Marvel movie character whose costume is mainly yellow? Marvel has done a great job with costuming, in general, but, e.g., Thor's costume is based on a recent revamp that was already tailored to be adaptable to the screen; they toned down aspects of Captain's suit; Scarlet Witch, most obviously, doesn't look very comic book-y.

 

[Sithborg]

4. This movie would have made even more money if it was rated PG-13. And let's not kid ourselves, the main reason why the studio allowed this movie to be R rated is because they most likely didn't expect this movie to be a hit (and to a lesser extent, wanted this movie to flop). It's pretty apparent that the executives and producers of the X-films had a disdain for and/or were embarrassed by for the original source material for the X-Men (and the FF), which is why they didn't try to be faithful to superhero costumes (except for Storm) or powers of the characters, and only went the generic Hollywood route with these characters.

This is the part that I it gets frustrating that you don't understand. The large, large appeal of this film IS the rating. You cut what you need to cut in order meet PG-13, you have a watered down film. And it would show. Much like with The Wolverine. Cutting the ninja fight hurts the film so badly. And the little edits they did to the violence did lessen the impact of it. A lesser film would not be able to generate the hype this film did, nor produce the word of mouth this is producing.

And can we please drop the whole embarrassed of the source material narrative? Does no one remember what it was like in the late 90's? Yes, you had to avoid bright colorful costumes so you could avoid being mocked as the next B&R, even if you are treating the materiel seriously. X-men started their look in that environment. I don't expect them to suddenly shift to another look just because of what the others are doing.

 

[Blade X]

I think it was understandable a little back when the first couple movies were made because the big budget superhero trend was only just starting.

I think that they had a disdain for the source material and was embarrassed by it.

With FC, DOFP and Apocalypse it seem Fox is finally warming up to the idea that superhero comic material isn't something you need to be scared of. Saying that the fantastic four abomination last year made it look like they may not have learned their lesson. Hopefully Deadpool's success means they finally embrace the source material now instead of being almost apologetic about it.

Last years FF movie was a perfect example of a Hollywood studio seeing the success of another movie (in this case, the Nolan BATMAN trilogy) and looking at the superficial aspects of that movie and thinking that this is how all superhero movies should be done.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I thought this film would be lucky to do 45 million 4 day and it does 47 million it's opening day. I should just stop predicting the box office because I suck at it. That's what great marketing and a well reviewed movie will get you sometimes.

 

[Sithborg]

FF was a matter of putting someone in a position that they weren't ready for.

EDIT: To be fair, ISS, most everyone got this wrong. Most were laughing at some of those long range forecasts. And had some doubt when the predictions started to come in.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

FF was a matter of putting someone in a position that they weren't ready for.

That was definitely a big part of the issue.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

This is the part that I it gets frustrating that you don't understand. The large, large appeal of this film IS the rating. You cut what you need to cut in order meet PG-13, you have a watered down film. And it would show. Much like with The Wolverine. Cutting the ninja fight hurts the film so badly. And the little edits they did to the violence did lessen the impact of it. A lesser film would not be able to generate the hype this film did, nor produce the word of mouth this is producing.

And can we please drop the whole embarrassed of the source material narrative? Does no one remember what it was like in the late 90's? Yes, you had to avoid bright colorful costumes so you could avoid being mocked as the next B&R, even if you are treating the materiel seriously. X-men started their look in that environment. I don't expect them to suddenly shift to another look just because of what the others are doing.

Great post, 100% agreed with all of it.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I was definitely not expecting this for Deadpool, especially on Valentine's Day weekend. $113 million for the 3-day and $130 million for the 4-day is just bonkers, considering all the predictors saying it'd either bomb due it the R-rating and somewhat unorthodox nature of Deadpool or it'd make just enough to be a competitive CBM.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The word of mouth seems really good, I wonder if it can make over 300 million? At this point I'd be surprised if it didn't.

 

[Sithborg]

The budget was going to prevent an outright bomb. But, doubling your budget domestically in 4 days? Craziness. Got to love it when things break out.

 

[def28]

Motha ****ing Captain Deadpool!

Wow.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Honestly I'm surprised I even liked the film but I did.

Good rebound from Fox this year.

 

[los pollos]

And get banned in China? Nah not worth the R rating.

Deadpool is obviously going to cleansweep domestically, but it's currently wait and see internationally, lets not forget that American Sniper did a staggering $300M+ domestically but not so much internationally.

Hell if Deadpool has an overall gross of $700M then every studio making cbm are going to start considering R rated.

International and China gross are only extremely important nowadays because 90% of hollywood blockbuster movies have ridiculous $150M+ budgets. Those movies depend way more heavily on those worldwide grosses than they used to in the past. American Sniper's $350M domestic gross is close to 6 times it's budget without international, or China. Deadpool is going to open bigger than AS domestically, and is good enough that I can see it having a lot of repeat viewings, anything it grosses over $200M domestic is a monster success because whatever it makes overseas, is just extra.

I think you're thinking about this all wrong. The R-rating is fine as long as the movie's budget is kept in check. American Sniper and Deadpool similar budgets at $58M, far lower than the budgets for the last 5 X-flims, or any MCU movie. For a movie with sub-$100M budget, a good performance domestically alone should be enough to make the movie profitable, while the international market is just icing on the cake. It's not like these were the first successful R-rated superhero movies, Blade 1 and 2 also performed well.

 

[The Endless]

We live in a world where an R rated Deadpool film outgrosses the likes of Superman at the box office (OW anyway).

Insane. This is a bigger break out for a character than Iron Man.

 

[chamber-music]

So happy for the films sucess

FF was a matter of putting someone in a position that they weren't ready for.

I think they also made a FF movie that many people didn't really want. A dark grounded FF wasn't the type of film that had people excited.