Deadpool Deadpool Box Office Prediction Thread

How much will Deadpool make worldwide?

  • 600 million

  • 500 million

  • 400 million

  • 300 million

  • 200 million

  • 100 million

  • Under 100 million

  • 600 million

  • 500 million

  • 400 million

  • 300 million

  • 200 million

  • 100 million

  • Under 100 million


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This is the part that I it gets frustrating that you don't understand. The large, large appeal of this film IS the rating. You cut what you need to cut in order meet PG-13, you have a watered down film. And it would show. Much like with The Wolverine. Cutting the ninja fight hurts the film so badly. And the little edits they did to the violence did lessen the impact of it. A lesser film would not be able to generate the hype this film did, nor produce the word of mouth this is producing.

What you (and some others) don't understand is that ratings have little or nothing to do with how good or bad an action movie might be. For example, an R rating would not have made ROBOCOP 2 and 3 any better. Those movies sucked no matter the rating. I saw the unrated version of THE WOLVERINE movie (it's the only version of the film that I've seen), and I thought that the movie was underwhelming NOT because of the rating, but because the movie wasn't very good. On the flip side, I thought that the first 2 BLADE movies,the first ROBOCOP movie,and the CONAN THE BARBARIAN movie were all great NOT because they were rated R (although I did like looking at the naked ladies in CONAN), but because they had great stories,cool action scenes,and (in the case of ROBOCOP) were funny as hell. Action scenes can be both cool and have an impact without being gory and bloody. It all depends on the director of the film. And let's be honest, some action scenes that are cut out or edited so that a movie can get a PG-13 rating didn't need to be cut out since they weren't all that gory or violent to begin with. For example, I didn't find anything specifically R rated about the unedited WOLVERINE movie.

And can we please drop the whole embarrassed of the source material narrative? Does no one remember what it was like in the late 90's? Yes, you had to avoid bright colorful costumes so you could avoid being mocked as the next B&R, even if you are treating the materiel seriously. X-men started their look in that environment. I don't expect them to suddenly shift to another look just because of what the others are doing.

That is a BS excuse created by fans to explain and justify why the X-Men weren't put into their colorful comic book costumes in the films (except for Storm, whose costume was black in the comics). People tend to forget that 90's superhero movies like THE ROCKETEER and THE SHADOW didn't have brightly colored costumes in them, and that those 2 movies flopped at the box office.
 
Why shouldn't they, if Tim Miller can use it to their advantage? The Dark Knight cost $150m and it still wasn't your typical 'gotta save the world, city-destruction, alien invasion film.'

The Dark Knight cost $185M according to Box office mojo, more than 3X the budget of Deadpool.

This movie got the freedom it did because of it's lower budget. A sequel will obviously need a bigger budget, but I'd think going from a budget of $58M to $100M, a 70% jump, is a more appropriate increase for the type of character Deadpool is. Most of his action will be gun fighting, mixed in with sword play, which isn't that expensive. There were no big name actors in the movie besides RR, so the actor's salaries shouldn't go up that much.

The bigger the budget, the larger the studio interference, and the more pressure is put on the movie to appeal to international audiences, which threatens it's ability to go hard R, because China is too sensitive. Even F4, a movie with only a $120M budget had extreme studio interference screw up that production, do you really want to risk that?
 
And it's not like NO teens and children were at this one. There were plenty of them at my theater at 9pm showing.

That's the biggest myth that's been busted here, that you need kids and families. I've been saying for years that the need to rely on kids and families to make money on films is overblown, and now there's black and white proof that confirms that.
 
What you (and some others) don't understand is that ratings have little or nothing to do with how good or bad an action movie might be. For example, an R rating would not have made ROBOCOP 2 and 3 any better. Those movies sucked no matter the rating. I saw the unrated version of THE WOLVERINE movie (it's the only version of the film that I've seen), and I thought that the movie was underwhelming NOT because of the rating, but because the movie wasn't very good. On the flip side, I thought that the first 2 BLADE movies,the first ROBOCOP movie,and the CONAN THE BARBARIAN movie were all great NOT because they were rated R (although I did like looking at the naked ladies in CONAN), but because they had great stories,cool action scenes,and (in the case of ROBOCOP) were funny as hell. Action scenes can be both cool and have an impact without being gory and bloody. It all depends on the director of the film. And let's be honest, some action scenes that are cut out or edited so that a movie can get a PG-13 rating didn't need to be cut out since they weren't all that gory or violent to begin with. For example, I didn't find anything specifically R rated about the unedited WOLVERINE movie.



That is a BS excuse created by fans to explain and justify why the X-Men weren't put into their colorful comic book costumes in the films (except for Storm, whose costume was black in the comics). People tend to forget that 90's superhero movies like THE ROCKETEER and THE SHADOW didn't have brightly colored costumes in them, and that those 2 movies flopped at the box office.
The way I see it is this. The writers and director make a film, and what it comes out as, it comes out as. The Matrix is a very good example. It was rated-R for one single moment. If they had decided to cut it, they would have had a pg-13 rating, but that wasn't their vision.

Hold to the vision of the creative. And if the studio doesn't believe in the creative, why did they give them the job in the first place?
 
That was my favorite joke credit.
Same here. Considering what I have heard about the script, it is probably true.

That's the biggest myth that's been busted here, that you need kids and families. I've been saying for years that the need to rely on kids and families to make money on films is overblown, and now there's black and white proof that confirms that.
I said this last week before the release. People will take their kids to see this. Teens will see the heck out of this. R-rated movies that make a lot of money don't make it just on adults, they never have. Kids and teens saw the Matrix.
 
The Dark Knight cost $185M according to Box office mojo, more than 3X the budget of Deadpool.

This movie got the freedom it did because of it's lower budget. A sequel will obviously need a bigger budget, but I'd think going from a budget of $58M to $100M, a 70% jump, is a more appropriate increase for the type of character Deadpool is. Most of his action will be gun fighting, mixed in with sword play, which isn't that expensive. There were no big name actors in the movie besides RR, so the actor's salaries shouldn't go up that much.

The bigger the budget, the larger the studio interference, and the more pressure is put on the movie to appeal to international audiences, which threatens it's ability to go hard R, because China is too sensitive. Even F4, a movie with only a $120M budget had extreme studio interference screw up that production, do you really want to risk that?
The salaries go up automatically with the box office. I believe it is a guild thing, but not sure. If the studio doesn't realize it needs to stay out of the way, that is the studio's fault.
 
Heard a funny theory. Most of Zoolander's money is from teens sneaking into Deadpool.

lol
 
I said this last week before the release. People will take their kids to see this. Teens will see the heck out of this. R-rated movies that make a lot of money don't make it just on adults, they never have. Kids and teens saw the Matrix.

Exactly.
 
I wonder how crazy the negotiating deals for Deadpool 2 and X-Force are gonna be this week.
 
Then why did the 7m disappear days before filming started? The brass didn't have faith.

They didn't cut the $7m days before they started filming, but when they green-lit it. Making it R-rated still was a risk, and they believed enough in it to allow Tim Miller & Co. to make it, as long as they could could keep the budget down. And considering that even fans thought that an R-rated Deadpool was a huge risk, and people on here are still nagging about the rating even after it's heading for a $100+m opening weekend, why shouldn't the people who put the money in it?

Deadpool hit theaters this weekend, which means they had faith in it. Otherwise we would've gotten something very different. Instead we got the film the way Ryan Reynolds, Rhett Reese, Paul Wernick and Tim Miller envisioned it.

Even F4, a movie with only a $120M budget had extreme studio interference screw up that production, do you really want to risk that?

Let's not forget that Josh Trank most likely didn't have his s**t together in the first place, so he's partly responsible for that screw-up.
 
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I thought this film would be lucky to do 45 million 4 day and it does 47 million it's opening day. I should just stop predicting the box office because I suck at it. That's what great marketing and a well reviewed movie will get you sometimes.

I was predicting that the movie might do between 60M and 93M over the 4 day weekend. As long as this movie beats record set by 50 SHADES OF CRAP, I'll be happy.
 
I hope the opening of the sequel is just Deadpool in a tub of money.
 
They didn't cut the $7m days before they started filming, but when they green-lit it. Making it R-rated still was a risk, and they believed enough in it to allow Tim Miller & Co. to make it, as long as they could could keep the budget down. And considering that even fans thought that an R-rated Deadpool was a huge risk, and people on here are still nagging about the rating even after it's heading for a $100+m opening weekend, why shouldn't the people who put the money in it?

Deadpool hit theaters this weekend, which means they had faith in it. Otherwise we would've gotten something very different. Instead we got the film the way Ryan Reynolds, Rhett Reese, Paul Wernick and Tim Miller envisioned it.



Let's not forget that Josh Trank most likely didn't have his s**t together in the first place, so he's partly responsible for that screw-up.
FF came out in theaters. Did they have faith there? The movie wasn't exactly what they envisioned, but they made it work. That is why I am amazed by the creative here.
 
I wonder how crazy the negotiating deals for Deadpool 2 and X-Force are gonna be this week.
I'm hoping a Deadpool sequel stays around 100 million and maybe an X-Force at like 120? 140? I think The Revenant cost $135 million and that had to deal with excessive delays dues to weather and whatnot, so maybe Fox would be willing to go that same distance for an R-feature that won't have to deal with Mother Nature and would end on schedule?

Either way I hope Fox does let Ryan and co. be with this X-Force area of the X-universe. They have a lot of good pieces right now in the present day X-Men timeline and hopefully they can build off of it.
 
The salaries go up automatically with the box office. I believe it is a guild thing, but not sure. If the studio doesn't realize it needs to stay out of the way, that is the studio's fault.

I understand that salaries go up, but raising the budget from $58M to $150M is pure insanity for this type of movie. Fox is known for their meddling, unless you're Singer, or Cameron. Even Age of Ultron had studio meddling in it, despite Whedon knocking it out of the park with Avengers 1, so I know it can happen at any studio, even after a big success.

I didn't like Deadpool as a character before this movie because from what little I've seen of him in cartoons and comics, he cane off as obnoxious. The marketing of this movie really did a good job of making me interested in giving this movie a chance, and ultimately enjoying it as much as I did with GotG. The marketing of this movie has been one of the best I've seen for a blockbuster, and I think the marketing team deserves at least 50% of the credit for doing the heavy lifting of selling this movie to the masses. None of my friends/family have ever uttered the name deadpool before two months ago, and yet they were all talking about it this week.
 
I understand that salaries go up, but raising the budget from $58M to $150M is pure insanity for this type of movie. Fox is known for their meddling, unless you're Singer, or Cameron. Even Age of Ultron had studio meddling in it, despite Whedon knocking it out of the park with Avengers 1, so I know it can happen at any studio, even after a big success.

I didn't like Deadpool as a character before this movie because from what little I've seen of him in cartoons and comics, he cane off as obnoxious. The marketing of this movie really did a good job of making me interested in giving this movie a chance, and ultimately enjoying it as much as I did with GotG. The marketing of this movie has been one of the best I've seen for a blockbuster, and I think the marketing team deserves at least 50% of the credit for doing the heavy lifting of selling this movie to the masses. None of my friends/family have ever uttered the name deadpool before two months ago, and yet they were all talking about it this week.
I am not saying it has to go up to 150m, but it has to go up substantially.
 
Fox meddles heavily here and they lose their actor, producers and creative team. Won't happen.

This role is all Reynolds, like Downey JR is Iron man or Depp is Jack Sparrows.
 
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