Discussion: The DEMOCRATIC P - Part 3

[Flint Marko]

 

[Lily Adler]

Ohio’s Shontel Brown wins Ohio House seat, as primary for House seat in Florida heads to a recount

 

[Lily Adler]

Democrats look at expanding minimum tax on wealthy in exchange for state and local tax break

 

[Lily Adler]

New Jersey Governors Race Surprisingly Close | National Review

 

[Lily Adler]

Dem McAuliffe faces 52% unfavorable numbers in Va., preliminary exit poll data shows

 

[Lily Adler]

India Walton not conceding mayoral race just yet

What is going on in this election?

 

[mclay18]

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Back in 2009, Democrats lost the contest for mayor of NY (by 4 points), lost the NJ governor's election (by 4 points), and lost the VA governor's election (by 17 points). Not a great election 2021 but it could've been worse.

So the elastic affect against the party in power isn't as strong now as it was 12 years ago. The Democrats may not lose as many seats in 2022 as they did in 2010 though history shows a loss is likely next year regardless.

Turnout drops whenever it's not a federal election on the ballot but extremists are the most motivated to vote even when turnout drops.

Averages (1934-2018 Mid-term election results)
President's party House seats defended: 235
President's party Senate seats defended: 17
Seat change, president's party (House): -28 Seats
Seat change, president's party (Senate): -4 Seats

Source: American Presidency Project - Seats in Congress Gained/Lost by the President's Party in Mid-Term Elections

(click here to enlarge)

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Might have worked if they hadn't been identified as staff members and fake nazis.

You really want to die on the hill of a scam that didn't actually produce any votes. Why?

 

[Lily Adler]

Joe Manchin and the blue-collar exodus

Van Jones on Virginia: 'This is a big, big wake-up call' for Democrats

Biden returns to sobering Virginia upset, Democrat battle in Congress

 

[childeroland]

Question: Overall, what is the lesson to be learned here? Did populism win and progressivism (sp?) lose? Or should the progressives have been more heeded to by the Democrats? Or is it different in different states/cities?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Question: Overall, what is the lesson to be learned here? Did populism win and progressivism (sp?) lose? Or should the progressives have been more heeded to by the Democrats? Or is it different in different states/cities?

Where was progressivism on the ballot and lose to Republicans? Where did you get this narrative? Also progressivism is populism. At least in the context of the US right now and the policies progressivism is tied to. I just... what the hell?

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

The lesson is that the party in power needs to get as much done before their power is almost inevitably taken away from them by the rubberband effect on elections where the party's popularity peaks when it's out of power and hits it's nadir when it's in power.

 

[Lily Adler]

The lesson is that the party in power needs to get as much done before their power is almost inevitably taken away from them by the rubberband effect on elections where the party's popularity peaks when it's out of power and hits it's nadir when it's in power.

The longer they delay this bill, the worse this will get.

 

[JubJub86]

Also progressivism is populism. At least in the context of the US right now and the policies progressivism is tied to.

At least not across-the-board, enough to win. Richmond, Norfolk, Alexandria stayed blue, yeah. Seems most of the rest of the state might have concerns about the agenda. Whether that translates broader than this who the hell knows, impossible to predict. But NJ's closer than it should be too - policies polling well in theory don't necessarily translate when it matters, or their popularity's exaggerated in the first place.

Not a time for overconfidence or righteousness - there's some backlash here it'd be foolish to dismiss.

 

[JubJub86]

Facts on the ground can be inconvenient, but let's not be snide.

This wasn't about Youngkin being some effective candidate. It's that the other guy put his foot in his mouth and angered the undecideds. Look at the map, plenty of these people went blue when Orange Man was on the ballot. Part of that's turnout, part of that's the school stuff.

 

[childeroland]

Where was progressivism on the ballot and lose to Republicans? Where did you get this narrative? Also progressivism is populism. At least in the context of the US right now and the policies progressivism is tied to. I just... what the hell?

I'm obviously using these terms wrong. What I mean is this: should centrist Democrats have listened to progressives and pushed harder for more progressive reforms or should they have just tried to pass whatever they can pass now, like Lily says?

 

[Teelie]

The centrists should have given way to the progressives instead of their rich benefactors who told them not to. All of these losses are not because of any progressive agenda.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Facts on the ground can be inconvenient, but let's not be snide.

This wasn't about Youngkin being some effective candidate. It's that the other guy put his foot in his mouth and angered the undecideds. Look at the map, plenty of these people went blue when Orange Man was on the ballot. Part of that's turnout, part of that's the school stuff.

Wow, you are making this one easy.

Where is the progressivism you are speaking about in this paragraph? Not being a bigot? That's high on the liberal agenda as well. And that is how the race was run. On a liberal agenda. What does that have to do with progressivism? Do you not know what that means?

 

[JubJub86]

Well, you sure seem pleasant. Disengage in 3, 2, 1...

 

[Lily Adler]

Things I've learned from the past elections from 2016-present. Republicans will mostly never vote for a Democrat and will vote for the Republican regardless. Democrats will vote for a Republican if the Democrat is too progressive.

 

[Sithborg]

The centrists should have given way to the progressives instead of their rich benefactors who told them not to. All of these losses are not because of any progressive agenda.

I would be hesitant to claim the nationalization of this race too much.

 

[InCali]

Yeah. He had no path to victory. The uncounted votes were from heavily Dem leading counties that went for Dems between 60-75%.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I would be hesitant to claim the nationalization of this race too much.

Why? We are in midterm season, and Dems only run every 4 years.

This is the current political merry-go-round.

- Republicans wins office.

- He's terrible, borderline evil.

- Dems run on how bad they are and progressive ideas on how they will provide change.

- Dems wins office.

- Dems make little to no meaningful change.

- Republicans find no way to run on bigotry, while the Dems run on nothing.

- Republicans win.

The Dems are the largest political party in US history, and yet seem incapable of turning that into the monopoly in should be in elections. Why? Because they lack the ability to motivate voters. They need the Republicans to do it for them.

The Dems could have their equivalent of CRT. They could have something with Medicare for all and climate change. Increasing the minimum wage to a livable one. And for a few months in the primaries they do just that. Look at everything the Dem hierarchy were cool on early last year. But then they water it all down when they get into office, and give little to none of it.

We can cry about Manchin and Sinema, but who invited them into the party? Who has made the party beholden to donors? The party itself. The cycle will continue until the Dems get serious, but there isn't much of a reason for them to. They make so much money doing things the way they do now. So my question is, why defend them? Why make excuses? We all agree the Republicans are awful. There not going to change. But what are the Dems giving the world outside of empty platitudes?

I get why people want to ignore the border situation. Think it makes the party look bad. But the issue is, does that matter? They don't motivate, and don't do enough with their power to make it a cost/benefit analysis. They are doing evil things at the border and not helping out elsewhere.

Are they stupid or incompetent? Let's consider this is the group that couldn't stop running against Trump. So why didn't they come out hard are getting rid of the TRUMP TAX CUTS? How often have they brought up it was the TRUMP TAX CUTS? What has Biden been doing in this regard? Trump was out there often, almost everyday, making noise. Why doesn't Biden?

At what point is it the Dems fault for what they do?

 

[Punisher_MAX]

Things I've learned from the past elections from 2016-present. Republicans will mostly never vote for a Democrat and will vote for the Republican regardless. Democrats will vote for a Republican if the Democrat is too progressive.

And this is why we just need to split the Dem party up cause none of this is working.