🇺🇸 Discussion: The DEMOCRATIC P - Part 3

[DarthSkywalker]

If Democrats lose the rust belt again, then they'll lose again. Courting millennials is great in the coastal states, but in the center of the country it's still the economy, guns, and God. The traditional wisdom is you need a centrist who can appeal enough to each group to make it work. Too far to one side, and you lose the other. You say that Older Democrats are built into the cake. I don't think that's necessarily true. Bernie Sanders may be the best candidate, but will a 60 year old white male Democrat in Ohio vote for him? I don't know. There's reason to speculate not. That's why we usually pick moderates - we try to make everyone reasonably happy without giving everything to anyone.

It is true. The numbers show it. Winning the rust belt is dependent on young voters, minorities voters. Not because the are the majority, but simply the more that turn out, the higher the Democrats chances go up, because it means an overall higher turn out. Which favors the Democrats. This isn't even a secret. We just saw the results of this in 2016 and 2018.

 

[Schlosser85]

That's not the point. Her first job is to her constituents, not to her campaign. I don't want a President who is going to focus more on campaigning than actually running the country.

Yea we’ve currently got that. The only people Trump even pretends to have any interest in is his hardcore base.

 

[MaceB]

It is true. The numbers show it. Winning the rust belt is dependent on young voters, minorities voters. Not because the are the majority, but simply the more that turn out, the higher the Democrats chances go up, because it means an overall higher turn out. Which favors the Democrats. This isn't even a secret. We just saw the results of this in 2016 and 2018.

Hmm, well call me skeptical I guess. Seems risky to go all-in with young voters and ignore boomers entirely. Now... maybe Bernie can make the sell, and the country would be far better off with him than Biden (ideologically speaking), so maybe it’s worth a try. We’ll have to see how it starts to pan out when the races get going. If Bernie gets good momentum, then we should go with him. But if it’s not going that way, hopefully millennials will be cool with a compromise candidate.

I’ll tell you, Elizabeth warren has been doing the best job so far in my book. She’s rolling out policy ideas and keeping it professional and on policy. I love that.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Hmm, well call me skeptical I guess. Seems risky to go all-in with young voters and ignore boomers entirely. Now... maybe Bernie can make the sell, and the country would be far better off with him than Biden (ideologically speaking), so maybe it’s worth a try. We’ll have to see how it starts to pan out when the races get going. If Bernie gets good momentum, then we should go with him. But if it’s not going that way, hopefully millennials will be cool with a compromise candidate.

I’ll tell you, Elizabeth warren has been doing the best job so far in my book. She’s rolling out policy ideas and keeping it professional and on policy. I love that.

To assume that progressive politics ignore boomers, ignores how important things like like healthcare is for boomers.

 

[Sithborg]

We have lost the boomers to Fox News.

That said, I think Trump Trauma may help prevent such apathy over what happened in 2016.

 

[CaptainWagner]

Who said they're the only ones that matter? Of course they're not. But they are the people the Democrats need to win back in order to beat Trump. These people went Obama both times, they went Bubba Clinton, but didn't go Hillary. That's a problem, one you don't overcome with someone in-line with a Berkeley student in terms of world outlook.

2016 says otherwise. They're why you lost, you've already got the progressives on board. Don't expend effort on courting the Bernie Bros, they're not going to sit home a second time and let Trump get a second outing. They've learned that lesson.

I mean, again, if that were the case Trump wouldn't be in the White House. Millennials are a huge piece of the pie, but they're not a unilaterally dominant factor just yet, not when enough of the rest of the demos aren't on the same page.

Risk it, by all means. You run a Warren, you're getting another 4 years of losing your minds over Trump. But hey, millennial prerogative I guess. Personally I don't even think Biden will run now, at that age who needs the trouble, but aside from Harris there's also not really anyone else in the race who has a chance yet. That could change of course, really early days, but so far it's pretty evident the party still doesn't quite grasp what went down last time around.

This is pretty much note for note everything the DNC has said about post-2016. Which is to look at the failure and make every possible wrong take. Their are several primary flaws with this line of thought.

1) Hillary did not lose the working class of Middle America by being too progressive. She lost by not caring about them enough to do anything to dispel Trump's narrative in states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

2) You fundamentally misunderstand the "Bernie Bro" demographic. THEY are the people most likely to not show up. Centrist Dems are more likely to support someone they have minor issues with. If the Progressive base feels betrayed once again by the party, it will be even worse.

3) Millennials don't only live on the coast. By believing that progressive policy only matters in certain states, you are buying into the GOP's narrative, which is designed to do just that. Millennials have not had huge influence because they don't show up. They've been raised up cynical and disillusioned and they aren't going to care if the DNC runs another Hillary. I'm not arguing for Warren, because I'm not confident in her ability to relate to Middle America. But someone like Bernie, Harris or Mayor Pete have what it takes. Running away from progressivism is how we reelect Trump, not the other way around.

 

[CaptainWagner]

If Democrats lose the rust belt again, then they'll lose again. Courting millennials is great in the coastal states, but in the center of the country it's still the economy, guns, and God. The traditional wisdom is you need a centrist who can appeal enough to each group to make it work. Too far to one side, and you lose the other. You say that Older Democrats are built into the cake. I don't think that's necessarily true. Bernie Sanders may be the best candidate, but will a 60 year old white male Democrat in Ohio vote for him? I don't know. There's reason to speculate not. That's why we usually pick moderates - we try to make everyone reasonably happy without giving everything to anyone.

First off, calling it the Rust Belt is not a great way to convince people you really care about them. "Traditional wisdom" can say whatever the heck it wants, but relying on it is what kills political parties. There is no evidence to suggest more moderate voters are less loyal than progressives and lots of evidence to suggest the opposite is true. Young, cynical progressives will stay home if they feel ignored. Traditional Dems will still show up if their personal favorite loses the primary.

The biggest flaw here, though, is "economy, guns and God". To claim that these priorities are a threat to progressive policy is self - sabotage.

Economy: Progressive policy is all about economic strategies specifically tailored to uplift workers like those in rural mid-America left high and dry by corporate decisions. These are the people most in need of economic change.

Guns: The NRA base is dying out fast. Even young conservatives are increasingly willing to accept gun control. Irregardless, gun violence is one of the most profoundly black and white issues in our platform. We can't compromise on it just to win Wisconsin. There are less gun nuts out there than the NRA wants you to believe.

God: I really just ought to refer to Mayor Pete, here. Christianity is a profoundly progressive religion at its core. The most important thing party leadership can do is break the stranglehold that the Far Right has on the "religion in politics" conversation. As Mayor Pete says, we are poised for a new Great Awakening for the "Religious Left" to lead the charge for radical social transformation.

 

[Donner]

What the actual ****. This crap is why unwanted touching continues. Women feeling uncomfortable is just something to be mocked. Pathetic.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

What the actual ****. This crap is why unwanted touching continues. Women feeling uncomfortable is just something to be mocked. Pathetic.

He's a piece of ****. Seriously, **** him after that. That is some Trump ****.

 

[Sithborg]

Yeah, Biden is going to have issues.

 

[MaceB]

We'll see. He's certainly not handling it well. He should have entered the race months ago, and now he's putting himself in this dishonest position of pretending to be deciding. And the apology just isn't working for me. It needs to be sincere, but also stern.. and he's just not making that balance right now.He needs to apologize and accept responsibility... which he is sort of doing reasonably well. But he also has to assert himself and say look, "I'm going to watch my behavior, but physically touching people is how I connect with them, and I'm not going to apologize for that." At this point... this is who Joe Biden is. He does himself no favors by cowering. He's adopting the apologetic posture of a caught predator. Is that what's happening? Has he ever actually cheat on his wife or coerced women? If so, he needs to get out of the picture immediately. If not, he needs to apologize, but he also needs to assert his innocence boldly, cause no one is going to do it for him.

From top to bottom, these are very disappointing times for Biden. He needs to stop whatever it is that he's doing, and jump into the race already. We all know he's going to do it. This is dumb. Just do it already. Let the chips fall where they may. Cause this shadow boxing stuff aint doing it for me.

 

[Sithborg]

I mean, this combined with Anita Hill is not going to fly.

 

[MaceB]

I think it could. A lot of folks haven't rewatched the Anita Hill hearings in quite a while... it was a long time ago, at a different time, and I think people can forgive him.

Couple with this... well this isn't really anything. This is a few women saying that Biden made them uncomfortable by getting too close, be it unromantically. Even the accusers are like, 'nah.. this wasn't sexual... it was just invasive.' I think that can be forgiven, personally. I feel like we need more huggers in the world honestly. Biden needs to take responsibility, and essentially stop the behavior now that people say they are bereaved... and we'll see if he can do that. But this shouldn't be a big deal.

It's the overly cautious, over safe, guilt ridden response that I think is most telling. Biden is not acting like a frontrunner who wants to win. And if that's the case... well there are lots of other candidates who are in it to win it, who'd be more than happy to get my vote.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I think it could. A lot of folks haven't rewatched the Anita Hill hearings in quite a while... it was a long time ago, at a different time, and I think people can forgive him.

Couple with this... well this isn't really anything. This is a few women saying that Biden made them uncomfortable by getting too close, be it unromantically. Even the accusers are like, 'nah.. this wasn't sexual... it was just invasive.' I think that can be forgiven, personally. I feel like we need more huggers in the world honestly. Biden needs to take responsibility, and essentially stop the behavior now that people say they are bereaved... and we'll see if he can do that. But this shouldn't be a big deal.

It's the overly cautious, over safe, guilt ridden response that I think is most telling. Biden is not acting like a frontrunner who wants to win. And if that's the case... well there are lots of other candidates who are in it to win it, who'd be more than happy to get my vote.

Good thing there is not video tape.

He is showing who he is, and it ain't going to fly with any voter under 40 at this point.

 

[MaceB]

Good thing there is not video tape.

He is showing who he is, and it ain't going to fly with any voter under 40 at this point.

What do you think it shows exactly? Do you think he's getting some sexual satisfaction out of this? That its a power thing? That he's man-handling these ladies as some kind of gratification?

.. I mean, maybe he's a creeper. I just see it that he's an affectionate older man.. personally. Like I said, I honestly thing that we might need more physical touch in this world today. Caring touch is a love language, and it's how some people convey they care. Of course, they need to be cognoscente of going overboard and offending people, and I think that's what happened here.... Biden crossed that line. And he should apologize, which he has.

But is that unforgivable? W. did a first strike against a country that wasn't a threat to us, invaded their land, tortured their people, and enflamed a civil war.... and he got re-elected. So I think Biden has every potential to get past this, if he starts manning up.

 

[Sithborg]

Do you not remember the Kavanaugh hearings? Anita Hill is still very relevant.

 

[MaceB]

Was it? Kavanaugh got in no problem. The people have more or less let go of the incident... there are no mass protests against Kavanaugh right now. If anything, that situation shows how these issues can be beaten by accused men. And the accusation against Kavanaugh were far far worse than the ones against Biden... right now...

 

[DarthSkywalker]

What do you think it shows exactly? Do you think he's getting some sexual satisfaction out of this? That its a power thing? That he's man-handling these ladies as some kind of gratification?

.. I mean, maybe he's a creeper. I just see it that he's an affectionate older man.. personally. Like I said, I honestly thing that we might need more physical touch in this world today. Caring touch is a love language, and it's how some people convey they care. Of course, they need to be cognoscente of going overboard and offending people, and I think that's what happened here.... Biden crossed that line. And he should apologize, which he has.

But is that unforgivable? W. did a first strike against a country that wasn't a threat to us, invaded their land, tortured their people, and enflamed a civil war.... and he got re-elected. So I think Biden has every potential to get past this, if he starts manning up.

He is showing that he does not care how these women feel. He is making fun of what they said, after stating he was going to start listen, and hear them. In what way is making fun of them for the creepy **** he did, showing he has learned a thing? He is exactly the creep he was being made out to be. He is doing exactly what Trump would do.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Was it? Kavanaugh got in no problem. The people have more or less let go of the incident... there are no mass protests against Kavanaugh right now. If anything, that situation shows how these issues can be beaten by accused men. And the accusation against Kavanaugh were far far worse than the ones against Biden... right now...

Oh, I didn't know the right was the one voting in the Democrat primary. Excuse me.

 

[MaceB]

He is showing that he does not care how these women feel. He is making fun of what they said, after stating he was going to start listen, and hear them. In what way is making fun of them for the creepy **** he did, showing he has learned a thing? He is exactly the creep he was being made out to be.

I think it was meant more as a self-degrading joke. Was the joke at their expense? I think to a lot of people... it was more like... "oh, don't worry. I'm learning my lesson. I'm not going to make those mistakes again."

I think Joe has been very attentive to his accuser's feelings... at least as far as these things tend to go. He's not attacking them. He's saying "they're right."

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I think it was meant more as a self-degrading joke. Was the joke at their expense? I think to a lot of people... it was more like... "oh, don't worry. I'm learning my lesson. I'm not going to make those mistakes again."

I think Joe has been very attentive to his accuser's feelings... at least as far as these things tend to go. He's not attacking them. He's saying "they're right."

Uh-huh... because making light of what was said about him is a self-degrading joke. And since when did he say they were right? He acts like it didn't happen.

 

[MaceB]

Oh, I didn't know the right was the one voting in the Democrat primary. Excuse me.

It's true that the Democratic base may not allow this kind of behavior. Very possible. But I think that the Democratic base has a history of over-reacting to these issues, and I think a lot has happened in the past 2 years that allows us to put this situation into a greater context, where a win is still possible.

I'm just saying... the Kavanaugh hearings are an example of how a lot of these allegations can be sound and furry, signifying nothing.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It's true that the Democratic base may not allow this kind of behavior. Very possible. But I think that the Democratic base has a history of over-reacting to these issues, and I think a lot has happened in the past 2 years that allows us to put this situation into a greater context, where a win is still possible.

I'm just saying... the Kavanaugh hearings are an example of how a lot of these allegations can be sound and furry, signifying nothing.

Yes, greater context. Emphasizing how it isn't okay. Would you like to explain the women who were at the capital fighting against his appointment is an example of sound and furry on the left when it comes to stuff like this? How about Al Franken?

Where the Left has control, the chances of this flying are far, far, far less. Especially with Trump around.

 

[Sithborg]

Bredesen sunk his senate campaign when he voiced support for Kavanaugh. Literally had volunteers quitting over it. So yes, in the democratic primary, it is a very, very big problem.

 

[MaceB]

Uh-huh... because making light of what was said about him is a self-degrading joke. And since when did he say they were right? He acts like it didn't happen.

"Social norms have begun to change. They've shifted. And the bounds of personal space have been reset. And I get it. I get it. I hear what they're saying. I understand it. And I'll be much more mindful. That's not my responsibility."