Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[redfirebird2008]

I just have to say I thought this movie was going to be like 1.5 billion. The first one made about 1.6 billion and I thought part of that was just because it was the first like team up super hero movie. That is why I think batman vs super man is going to be at least a billion even if the movie got like a 10 RT score lol because it is the first time having batman and super man together. So with not having this be the first team up super hero movie I though it was going to make a little less. How ever box office is hard to say because the international market is always getting bigger and bigger so that helps a lot. Now with seeing how it is doing international and how its predicted to do OW and with the movie still having china and with the way china expanding I think this movie could be a 2 billion movie. Just makes me wonder how much good a great sm movie make. I mean sm3 made just under a billion and that was 8 years ago with no 3d and much smaller international market.

Yes, international markets are Hollywood's best friend. China in particular is experiencing crazy growth. TA1 made $86m in China back in 2012 and that was a huge number at the time. Then in 2014 Transformers 4 made $320m in China. TA2 will likely make $250+ million there.

There is a lot more potential than a few years ago. And what's funny is if this growth keeps going, we will look back at TF4's $320m and think it was small potatoes when the biggest movies are making $600-700m in China a few years from now.

 

[spiderman2]

Yes, international markets are Hollywood's best friend. China in particular is experiencing crazy growth. TA1 made $86m in China back in 2012 and that was a huge number at the time. Then in 2014 Transformers 4 made $320m in China. TA2 will likely make $250+ million there.

There is a lot more potential than a few years ago. And what's funny is if this growth keeps going, we will look back at TF4's $320m and think it was small potatoes when the biggest movies are making $600-700m in China a few years from now.

Yeah I heard about how much money FF7 was making in china to. It makes a lot of sinces that movies would make a lot in china. I mean china only has like 2.5 billion people lol. Sounds like china could end up making even more then USA in a few more years. How much did asm2 make in china?

 

[redfirebird2008]

Yeah I heard about how much money FF7 was making in china to. It makes a lot of sinces that movies would make a lot in china. I mean china only has like 2.5 billion people lol. Sounds like china could end up making even more then USA in a few more years. How much did asm2 make in china?

ASM1 got screwed (along with TDKR). The Chinese government forced both of them to release on the same day and share screens in order to make way for local Chinese films not too long after that. They both made around $50m, which was actually pretty good considering the situation.

ASM2 faced much better market conditions and made $94m in China.

 

[Iceman]

Yes, international markets are Hollywood's best friend. China in particular is experiencing crazy growth. TA1 made $86m in China back in 2012 and that was a huge number at the time. Then in 2014 Transformers 4 made $320m in China. TA2 will likely make $250+ million there.

There is a lot more potential than a few years ago. And what's funny is if this growth keeps going, we will look back at TF4's $320m and think it was small potatoes when the biggest movies are making $600-700m in China a few years from now.

How much are the biggest movies going to make in China when it is finally fully mature like the US?

 

[redfirebird2008]

How much are the biggest movies going to make in China when it is finally fully mature like the US?

Numbers that will make our faces melt. t:

But one little tidbit about China a lot of people don't realize: Hollywood only gets 25% of the revenue. The Chinese government pays for all distribution costs in the market. It's kind of like a mineral owner who signs an oil and gas lease in exchange for a 25% royalty, except the mineral owner doesn't spend $200m producing the oil and gas. In the United States, the studio has to pay for distribution cost but they also get about 60% of the box office in the case of a huge movie like TA2.

 

[Iceman]

Numbers that will make our faces melt. t:

But one little tidbit about China a lot of people don't realize: Hollywood only gets 25% of the revenue. The Chinese government pays for all distribution costs in the market. It's kind of like a mineral owner who signs an oil and gas lease in exchange for a 25% royalty, except the mineral owner doesn't spend $200m producing the oil and gas. In the United States, the studio has to pay for distribution cost but they also get about 60% of the box office in the case of a huge movie like TA2.

I knew about the percentage but not about the distribution costs. Any idea what kind of figure that would be?

 

[redfirebird2008]

I knew about the percentage but not about the distribution costs. Any idea what kind of figure that would be?

No clue, but I would guess no more than $20m. Imagine how Paramount feels about that on TF4. They spend $200m making the movie, the Chinese government spends $20m distributing it, and the revenue split is 75% China/25% Paramount.

Pretty messed up, but that is the price to play in China for Hollywood. Guess they figure anything is better than nothing and at least they're not having to spend the money to distribute it there.

 

[Iceman]

No clue, but I would guess no more than $20m. Imagine how Paramount feels about that on TF4. They spend $200m making the movie, the Chinese government spends $20m distributing it, and the revenue split is 75% China/25% Paramount.

Pretty messed up, but that is the price to play in China for Hollywood. Guess they figure anything is better than nothing and at least they're not having to spend the money to distribute it there.

I see. Although in fairness the filmmaker can use their $200m product everywhere else across the world too to spread their fixed costs. But yeah it's crazy. I thought they'd have some bargaining power as it would be a lot for the Chinese to lose too. If a studio stop taking films to China 75% of what could be a huge figure at some point in future from a Disney is a lot! Plus the Chinese citizens might get restless when a load of their favorutie franchises stop appearing. t:

Like those small German cinemas that are boycotting Disney even though they will probably feel the pain more than Disney it can still have an impact when the deal is inherently unfair and non-standard practise around the rest of the world.

 

[spiderman2]

ASM1 got screwed (along with TDKR). The Chinese government forced both of them to release on the same day and share screens in order to make way for local Chinese films not too long after that. They both made around $50m, which was actually pretty good considering the situation.

ASM2 faced much better market conditions and made $94m in China.

Oh interesting I didn't know that about asm1 and TDKR.

 

[jmc]

I see RT has changed the Critic Consensus once again. They don't seem to be consistent as to when they put up a consensus for films, sometimes they don't apply a consensus until around 50-60 reviews, other times I've seen a consensus up within 20 reviews. IMO the Critic Consensus shouldn't be put up until 100 reviews have been submitted, the first 25-50 reviews aren't necessarily a good enough gauge to saying something definitive about a movie.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

What is that latest tracking for the movie? $230 opening weekend would be INSANE!

 

[hafizbat]

I see RT has changed the Critic Consensus once again. They don't seem to be consistent as to when they put up a consensus for films, sometimes they don't apply a consensus until around 50-60 reviews, other times I've seen a consensus up within 20 reviews. IMO the Critic Consensus shouldn't be put up until 100 reviews have been submitted, the first 25-50 reviews aren't necessarily a good enough gauge to saying something definitive about a movie.

I'll still be very pleased if the movie actually reflects the consensus they've written. Mostly satisfying is good enough for me t:

The good thing is that I haven't seen anyone outright call it a bad movie, it's worst offense seems to be that it's not as good as the first. I've seen everyone add the caveat "but still a very good movie" after they critique it.

 

[Darkraid]

I think the box office number will blow Marvel's mind.

I have seen the amount of marketing for Asian markets, with a Hot Toys Avengers Asian tour showcasing the different characters in the film.

It worked perfectly with AOU breaking the box office for several Asian countries.

I hope they do well in China.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Boxoffice.com has it at a 221 mil OW.

 

[JOE]

Boxoffice.com has it at a 221 mil OW.

Jesus, that's a big OW... This movie just might make more than the first one. That's incredible.

 

[Silver Surfer]

^ That's a foregone conclusion.

 

[redfirebird2008]

^ That's a foregone conclusion.

It will make more worldwide but there is no guarantee it will get to $623m domestic. I expect it to come up short actually. TA1 had phenomenal legs.

 

[Leenie]

If this bad boy makes more than the first Avengers flick (which is almost a given at this point), then I can't even fathom how much Infinity Wars will make. Wowza.

Get it, Marvel.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

If this bad boy makes more than the first Avengers flick (which is almost a given at this point), then I can't even fathom how much Infinity Wars will make. Wowza.

Get it, Marvel.

Marvel are laughing all the way to the bank, my goodness!

 

[warriorking]

If this baby tops Harry Potters 47Million Midnight showing tonight which is quite possible since the 7 and 8pm showings allows students to attend tonights advanced screenings..
I still think it tops 400 Million by the end of next weekend...
Its breaking all the records for preorder sales from online ticket suppliers..
I think it rewrites the history books by this weekend...
Its shaping up to be the perfect storm....
I have my tickets already for the 8pm showing on Friday....

 

[Flint Marko]

It will make more worldwide but there is no guarantee it will get to $623m domestic. I expect it to come up short actually. TA1 had phenomenal legs.

Agreed. Although I do expect this to clear $500 m domestic, I'll be a little disappointed if that doesn't happen.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Agreed. Although I do expect this to clear $500 m domestic, I'll be a little disappointed if that doesn't happen.

It should open so big this weekend that $500m is a lock. Would take a pretty unbelievable collapse for it to come up short. I'm expecting around $540-550m.

 

[Tony Stark]

I think the problem it's going to run into is that there's much tougher competition this summer than there was in 2012. For it to get to 600M it's going to have to make up most of that in the first two weeks of release, because the multiplier will undoubtedly be lower.

$550'ish is much more realistic, but I agree WW this thing is going to be super huge. I don't want to say a number yet, but 2B is definitely on the table if these reports of 40-60% over the original in overseas markets holds up.

 

[Iceman]

For the first film the grosses on opening weekend were:

Friday - $80,813,985
Saturday - $69,557,990
Sunday - $57,066,733

If AoU can get to $100m on Friday including Thursday evening, there is a chance of a good beat overall for the weekend. It needs a big beat on opening weekend to challenge the overall gross as the legs will likely be weaker.

 

[Flint Marko]

I think the problem it's going to run into is that there's much tougher competition this summer than there was in 2012. For it to get to 600M it's going to have to make up most of that in the first two weeks of release, because the multiplier will undoubtedly be lower.

$550'ish is much more realistic, but I agree WW this thing is going to be super huge. I don't want to say a number yet, but 2B is definitely on the table if these reports of 40-60% over the original in overseas markets holds up.

Geez... if this breaks 2 billion I will throw a parade.