Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[take3]

Adam B. Vary ‏@adambvary https://***********/adambvary/status/594152796426866688
#AvengersAgeOfUltron made $27.6M in midnight screenings on Thursday, $8.9M more than #TheAvengers made in 2012. Worldwide gross: $314.9M.

 

[Tony Stark]

That is 8 millions above TA but with extra 7pm showings, and a larger part of its revenue coming from Imax & PLF. Solid but not impressive.
It can still beat the first on ow but I'd say it's not guaranteed now and it's going to have a hard time beating the od record.

Um, that number pretty much falls in with what everyone predicted. This is May not June or July. If it were later in the summer, I'd expect the number to be higher.

This was never going to beat the Potter/Twilight/Hunger Games type numbers.

All it means is that the weekend numbers will be higher.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Exactly. The analysts predicting 210+ this weekend factored this in. 30 million was the absolute max for Thursday given the date.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's difficult to tell what the film is going to do going by that 27.6million number, I mean I still fully expect it to break the opening weekend record that's for sure.

 

[kedrell]

This what I posted about a month back and I'm sticking with it.

Avengers: Age of Ultron
Opening Weekend US Box Office = $195 Million - $215 Million
Overall US Box Office = $550 Million - $650 Million
Overall International Box Office = $1 Billion - $1.1 Billion
Overall World Wide Box Office = $1.6 Billion - $1.7 Billion

This seems an entirely reasonable and soberly minded guess to me. I agree with it, though I will always hope for it to exceed even these expectations.

 

[Pickle-El]

Falls in line with realistic expectations.

People were at 35million bottom on box office forums...some had it over Potter.

I thought it would be in between. May or not, it's the biggest sequel in history to come out.

The big question to me still is that Saturday evening. Tons of people will be watching the fight.

Regardless, I'm thinking 215-220, ending somewhere in the 530-560 range.

 

[Pickle-El]

This what I posted about a month back and I'm sticking with it.

Avengers: Age of Ultron
Opening Weekend US Box Office = $195 Million - $215 Million
Overall US Box Office = $550 Million - $650 Million
Overall International Box Office = $1 Billion - $1.1 Billion
Overall World Wide Box Office = $1.6 Billion - $1.7 Billion

I'm very in line with this.

525-560 Domestic
1.1-1.25 WW

1.6-1.8 total. Call it 1.7

1.75 WW. I think China gets to around 250 and pushes A2 past the first film.

 

[kedrell]

I'd be surprised if it doesn't beat TF4 in China, maybe F7 as well.

 

[TalismanRing]

That is 8 millions above TA but with extra 7pm showings, and a larger part of its revenue coming from Imax & PLF. Solid but not impressive.
It can still beat the first on ow but I'd say it's not guaranteed now and it's going to have a hard time beating the od record.

More early showings also means many people just go earlier instead of later, especially with a work day.

It's far more than solid. It's 75% higher than FF7's previews and about 175% higher than TWS. Both had 7pm showings.

 

[ManofSteel37013]

More early showings also means many people just go earlier instead of later, especially with a work day.

It's far more than solid. It's 75% higher than FF7's previews and about 175% higher than TWS. Both had 7pm showings.

It's not as solid as it should be. This is a sequel to one of the biggest movies of all time and even with all the extra showings it still couldn't beat Potter and it only did about 10M more with more screens and higher ticket prices.

 

[Iceman]

It's not as solid as it should be. This is a sequel to one of the biggest movies of all time and even with all the extra showings it still couldn't beat Potter and it only did about 10M more with more screens and higher ticket prices.

It's May. Kid's have School.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Lol I wouldn't bother with logic.

 

[Tony Stark]

It's not as solid as it should be. This is a sequel to one of the biggest movies of all time and even with all the extra showings it still couldn't beat Potter and it only did about 10M more with more screens and higher ticket prices.

This is simply not correct. First off it was never going to beat Potter. The book club fanboy films like Potter/Twilight/Hunger Games have historically been much more front loaded than any of these films.

Second, Potter 7 was one of the most frontloaded films ever. It only was no. 1 at the box office for one week, and fell hard in week 2 with a 72% drop.

Third, Potter 7 was no 3 in widest release ever and AoU ranks 13th and not even as high as the first Avengers which is 8th.

You should get your facts straight before posting something like this.

 

[JKKS085]

The Dark Knight Rises did 30.6M (32M adjusted) in 2012 with midnight showings only, lower ticket prices, no 3D and a lower IMAX share than AOU. Granted it was in July.

27.6M for previews is better than FF7 and better than TWS but as far as I recall none of these films opened above 200M which is the benchmark for AOU.

Now what people should really understand at this point is that the movie is going to be a lot more front loaded than its predecessor and that it IS going to impact the opening week end (internal multiplier and all). Meaning that the bigger it opens the higher his chances to reach some important milestones, ow record first and then 500M, 550M, 600M dom.

27.6M for the previews is on the lower ends of the predictions/estimates, let's hope things are gonne get better from now on and the the fight on Saturday won't make a significant dent to the ow gross because let's face it, Marvel would have every reason to be at least slightly disappointed if the film doesn't break that ow record. Gangbuster overall business or not, that would make for a sweet headline.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Hope has nothing to do with it man. Just relax. The movie is going to make a ton of money. At least wait until weekend totals are in . Sheesh.

 

[TalismanRing]

TDKR once again was a SUMMER movie and even with much bigger previews than Avengers it opened to $47m less. It didn't have 3D but it did have large premium screens that also cost more per ticket and it had the same access to IMAX screens as AOU so if it sold less well there was less demand.

27.6M for previews is better than FF7 and better than TWS but as far as I recall none of these films opened above 200M which is the benchmark for AOU.

And? That's why I used percentages. If you want to rely so heavily on previews then use them as a percentage or base. That though would give you crazy huge opening weekend numbers of $260-280m which shows that the previews for AOU were indeed HUGE.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

This movie deserves all the money.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

TDKR once again was a SUMMER movie and even with much bigger previews than Avengers it opened to $47m less. It didn't have 3D but it did have large premium screens that also cost more per ticket and it had the same access to IMAX screens as AOU so if it sold less well there was less demand.

Lets be fair. There was a clear reason why it dropped off over the weekend.

 

[Tony Stark]

The Dark Knight Rises did 30.6M (32M adjusted) in 2012 with midnight showings only, lower ticket prices, no 3D and a lower IMAX share than AOU. Granted it was in July.

27.6M for previews is better than FF7 and better than TWS but as far as I recall none of these films opened above 200M which is the benchmark for AOU.

Now what people should really understand at this point is that the movie is going to be a lot more front loaded than its predecessor and that it IS going to impact the opening week end (internal multiplier and all). Meaning that the bigger it opens the higher his chances to reach some important milestones, ow record first and then 500M, 550M, 600M dom.

27.6M for the previews is on the lower ends of the predictions/estimates, let's hope things are gonne get better from now on and the the fight on Saturday won't make a significant dent to the ow gross because let's face it, Marvel would have every reason to be at least slightly disappointed if the film doesn't break that ow record. Gangbuster overall business or not, that would make for a sweet headline.

MAY IS NOT JULY
MAY IS NOT JULY
MAY IS NOT JULY

say it with me.... MAY IS NOT JULY!!!

 

[DarthSkywalker]

MAY IS NOT JULY
MAY IS NOT JULY
MAY IS NOT JULY

say it with me.... MAY IS NOT JULY!!!

But is it August?

 

[Tony Stark]

But is it August?

It depends on the lunar cycle.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It depends on the lunar cycle.

 

[take3]

iUPDATE, 1:22 PM: Industry box office estimates see Disney/Marvel’s The Avengers: Age Of Ultron on track for an $87M opening Friday at the domestic B.O. in 4,275 theaters, inclusive of yesterday’s $27.6M receipts. That would make Ultron the second-highest opening day of all time behind Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part II, which made $91.07M on its first Friday (on its way to a $169.2M weekend

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Crazy number. DHpt2 came out in the summer, so the Friday takes up a higher amount of the overall weekend total. AoU should pass up the first film and easily claim the opening weekend crown. Still impressive that Potter might actually hold onto the opening day record though.

If it does wind up with $213m for the weekend, I can't see it beating the first film's domestic total. But you never know. Still, fantastic numbers and well deserved imo.

 

[Iceman]

Seems like the opening day is similar to the first film given the excess it enjoyed from midnights. If that holds the rest of the weekend will give a big indication to the film's legs.