Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[JKKS085]

If it performs like the already very front-loaded Iron Man 3 and if it opens in the 225-230M range it should land between 528-540M dom.
If it performs more like Iron Man 2, which I think is more likely AOU being the direct sequel of a very well received film just like IM2 and the two flicks getting a pretty similar critical reception, it should land between 548-560M dom.

Now even if AOU is not a superior state of art, groundbreaking entry in the Marvel canon, even if it lacks the novelty factor and feels sometimes like a more complex and less focused rehash of the first film, there's no denying it's also a crowd-pleaser with jaw dropping action sequences, decent character moments and a great sense of humour. That's why I won't be surprised if despite the more mixed critical response it still holds pretty well.

Depending on the ow final numbers I would estimate 550M dom as the floor for this film.

 

[Iceman]

If it performs like the already very front-loaded Iron Man 3 and if it opens in the 225-230M range it should land between 528-540M dom.
If it performs more like Iron Man 2, which I think is more likely AOU being the direct sequel of a very well received film just like IM2 and the two flicks getting a pretty similar critical reception, it should land between 548-560M dom.

Now even if AOU is not a superior state of art, groundbreaking entry in the Marvel canon, even if it lacks the novelty factor and feels sometimes like a more complex and less focused rehash of the first film, there's no denying it's also a crowd-pleaser with jaw dropping action sequences, decent character moments and a great sense of humour. That's why I won't be surprised if despite the more mixed critical response it still holds pretty well.

Depending on the ow final numbers I would estimate 550M dom as the floor for this film.

Agreed with all this.

 

[drod1985]

Everying JKKS085 said makes pretty good sense.

Another thing we have to consider is that the GA may only really be seeing these movies around release, and maybe once on home video. I'm sure I've seen Avengers over a dozen times its release, but the average movie-goer has probably seen it once or twice. So the sense of awe and amazement may be bigger for the non-CBM diehards.

 

[obredaan]

I think it's going to obliterate the expected earnings especially the OW. 230 million almost feels too easy to attain right now. Pre-sales are up and the initial expectations for the first film were destroyed. Most were predicting 100-150 million and it made 207. I'd say a 300 million OW is not out of reach for this one. The buzz and excitement the trailers created for this movie will have everybody rushing out to see this.

Was listening to Mike and Mike on ESPN radio this morning to get ready for the NFL draft and they had Frank Caliendo do an Avengers draft using his impressions of Gruden and Kiper. It was great. t:

Just goes to show you that even with the NFL draft tonight that people are talking about The Avengers. It's a good time to be a CBM fan.

 

[take3]

‘Avengers: Age of Ultron’ Passes $250 Million Overseas

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

The real question is, will it pass 2 billion?

 

[Iceman]

Oh damn, I initially read that as over $250m (US) opening weekend haha. (even though it's too early for those figures t

 

[Steyin]

I feel the only thing that will have a negative effect on the OW is the Pacquiao fight. I have many friends who will be watching that instead of going out to see AoU.

 

[Iceman]

As long as they watch it eventually. Might mean a small boost to the 2nd weekend numbers.

 

[8ulk]

pro.boxoffice.com is predicting a 221 mil O.W.

I just saw the movie AND ITS AWESOME.

i ve been thinking a lot and playing with numbers in my mind

i think the movie is gonna smash a 1,85-2,1 bil WW.

O.W. US = 220 mil
US total = 575 mil
Overseas = 1,4 bil (China = 400 mil)
WW total = 1,975 bil

 

[JKKS085]

It's not making 1b OS without China. Not with the current exchange rates.

 

[Iceman]

The exchange rates are offset by the non-China box office expansion to an extent. And the first film made $800m overseas without China when awareness was much lower in some of those territories.

 

[Docker2.0]

You guys realize this thing could possibly be at $1/2 Billion by Monday? That is amazing!

 

[Iceman]

You guys realize this thing could possibly be at $1/2 Billion by Monday? That is amazing!

Zero chance of that not happening.

 

[Docker2.0]

Yeah that's what I'm saying. That is absolutely amazing considering the fact that it hasn't opened in the USA yet.

 

[JKKS085]

The exchange rates are offset by the non-China box office expansion to an extent. And the first film made $800m overseas without China when awareness was much lower in some of those territories.

The exchange rate is really killing it and the os expansion (outside of China) is barely gonna make up for that. If you also factor in the fact that it is probably not going to hold out as good as The Avengers we will probably see a steady decline in $ in some key markets, especially in Europe.

 

[ObiWanCon]

This what I posted about a month back and I'm sticking with it.

Avengers: Age of Ultron
Opening Weekend US Box Office = $195 Million - $215 Million
Overall US Box Office = $550 Million - $650 Million
Overall International Box Office = $1 Billion - $1.1 Billion
Overall World Wide Box Office = $1.6 Billion - $1.7 Billion

 

[Spiderine]

Yeah that's what I'm saying. That is absolutely amazing considering the fact that it hasn't opened in the USA yet.

That's just mind blowing. Its astounding what Marvel is accomplishing right now.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah that's what I'm saying. That is absolutely amazing considering the fact that it hasn't opened in the USA yet.

That's what I'm saying though, it was always 100% guaranteed after 2 international weekends and one US weekend following the first film, even if AoU had been an outright turkey. t: It's not amazing in the slightest. Will probably be a long way above that figure by Monday.

The exchange rate is really killing it and the os expansion (outside of China) is barely gonna make up for that. If you also factor in the fact that it is probably not going to hold out as good as The Avengers we will probably see a steady decline in $ in some key markets, especially in Europe.

So far it's outperforming the first film significantly in the markets it has opened in after accounting for exchange rate moves. Furious 7 has been impacted by this same combination of exchange rate adversity vs overseas box office expansion in the non China markets and has already made more outside of US and China than the first film made overseas including China. By the time it's done in cinemas the non China overseas number will be close to the previous film's entire run in all territories.

The non China, non European markets are growing hugely mate. I think China growing so ridiculously fast and being so large is masking the significance of those other markets.

 

[spiderman2]

The real question is, will it pass 2 billion?

Maybe I think we will have a better idea a few days after may 12 like may 14-15 as it comes out on may 12 in china and it will have been out in the USA for like 2 weeks and we will have OW and second weekend numbers and Chinas OW numbers and the rest of the world.

 

[Steelsheen]

*places bet*

putting it in for about $1.8 B world wide.

i'd be happy if it makes it to $2B of course

 

[8ulk]

Overall International Box Office = $1 Billion - $1.1 Billion
Overall World Wide Box Office = $1.6 Billion - $1.7 Billion

Im pretty sure the overall international numbers we ll be minimum 1,2 bil

 

[Iceman]

Hope we get some info on how last night's midnights were soon.

 

[Iceman]

http://deadline.com/2015/05/avengers-age-of-ultron-thursday-box-office-1201419080/
‘Age Of Ultron’s $27.6M Thursday Outstrips First ‘Avengers’ Preview Night

 

[JKKS085]

That is 8 millions above TA but with extra 7pm showings, and a larger part of its revenue coming from Imax & PLF. Solid but not impressive.
It can still beat the first on ow but I'd say it's not guaranteed now and it's going to have a hard time beating the od record.