Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Ms. Marvel]

What's considered a BAD cinemacore grade? Seeing as they tend to be very generous.

 

[def28]

For something like this? Anything lower then an A-. An A- would even be a bit disappointing.

These are such crowd pleasers that they should get an A+ or A.

 

[Juha Bach]

That's not all that impressive against the first film which had a lower midnight boost so would have beaten AoU on the day. Assuming the figure holds up that is.

Yes, if you look at it that way but $85mill on OD is still a huge number and disney should be very happy. Though i don't know if it will break the OW record with that number assuming it holds.

 

[ironman_rick]

Deadline now estimating $85 million opening day meaning potter keeps opening day record. Still extremely impressive nonetheless.
http://deadline.com/2015/05/avengers-age-of-ultron-thursday-box-office-1201419080/

Deadline is lowballing. They are predicting $202.6M OW.....

Avengers: Age of Ultron (DIS), 4,276 theaters / $85M* Fri. / 3-day cume: $202.6M / Wk 1
*includes Thursday preview B.O. of $27.6M

 

[JKKS085]

With a 57.4 od (minus previews), lower than TA, I think there is no scenario where AOU is breaking the ow record or even the 200M mark.

I can see 27.6M PRE + 57.4M FRI + 63.2M SAT + 47.5M SUN = 195.7M OW

Now I have absolutely no idea where the OD is going to land but in the context a 85M od seems much more in line with the previews number than the earlier 97/98M estimates. That being said, once official estimates land I wouldn't be surprised if it is much closer to 90M.

But no matter how things go from here, it is either gonna miss the ow record or barely beat it. I would personally hope for the second option just so we avoid the debate about how a 190M+ ow is a disappointment.

 

[Iceman]

Disappointment is relative so yes a $190m weekend can be a disappointment (although it wouldn't be for nearly every other film). Iron Man 3 did $174m and this film by all rights should be a good deal above any solo film based on one of its own characters. And if you want to avoid the debate best not to mention it. t:

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

It won't surprise me if it makes a little less this opening weekend. $190 mil + is still a damn good opening.

 

[JKKS085]

BoxOffice @BoxOffice
AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON earned an estimated $84.46M on opening day Friday. #Avengers #AgeOfUltron

That pretty much settles it. I think unless it really picks up today (maybe with family audiences), which I honestly doubt, AOU is going to open below TA and 200M ow seems like an uphill battle.

 

[Bren]

Just finished watching it. Started a little slow but when it got going, the action was a ride!

First time I've seen someone feel this way...

 

[Spiderdevil]

Yeah, it was overstuffed till the Hulk Buster fight

 

[ManofSteel37013]

BoxOffice @BoxOffice
AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON earned an estimated $84.46M on opening day Friday. #Avengers #AgeOfUltron

That pretty much settles it. I think unless it really picks up today (maybe with family audiences), which I honestly doubt, AOU is going to open below TA and 200M ow seems like an uphill battle.

The fight tonight might hurt attendance as well for the later shows

 

[redfirebird2008]

Will not be surprised if it comes in under $200m for the weekend. Still a crazy big opening and Disney is laughing all the way to the bank.

 

[hafizbat]

Any ideas as to why it's coming in lower than TA? I thought it was pretty certain that it would top the OW, and the movie is not even close to being bad enough to the point where the OW is hurt.

 

[Tony Stark]

Well if it follows A1's weekend multiplier it would beat the record by 3-4M, but it would be very, very close.

No idea how the fight will effect things. This is the most hyped fight in over 10 year, but then again Boxing's been a dead sport for at least 10 years.

This is the closest anything has come to the record in 3 years, so if it doesn't happen then Star Wars will be the next bet.

 

[Tony Stark]

Any ideas as to why it's coming in lower than TA? I thought it was pretty certain that it would top the OW, and the movie is not even close to being bad enough to the point where the OW is hurt.

Who knows. Familiarity factor, novelty factor worn off. Reviews not as good as the first? A2 has more screens, but A1 was a wider release.

Numerous factors are involved here, I don't think it's any one thing. Everyone is wondering about how the fight will effect things. Today, and if it does, does it just mean a lower drop on Sunday?

The fact is we may not know about the record until Monday.

This is still 500M + domestic and with the international numbers it should be bigger than A1 WW.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Any ideas as to why it's coming in lower than TA? I thought it was pretty certain that it would top the OW, and the movie is not even close to being bad enough to the point where the OW is hurt.

TA1 did have the novelty of the team-up helping it. I really did think WOM on that one was so good that the sequel would blow the record out of the water.

 

[Docker2.0]

I think the second weekend numbers will beat the original's number. I do think that fight is playing a part in box office numbers because EVERYONE I know is either watching the fight or getting ready to watch it. A lot of people I know were watching the weigh in while I was at the movies.

 

[Suzanne78]

After seeing it... I am more than fine with it not beating TA1.

 

[warhorse78]

Any ideas as to why it's coming in lower than TA? I thought it was pretty certain that it would top the OW, and the movie is not even close to being bad enough to the point where the OW is hurt.

Somebody said that it's actually opening in less theaters than the first Avengers, so there is that.

Ok. From BOM, here's a go.

Harry Potter and Deathly Hallows 2 theater count: 4375

Avengers 1 theater count: 4349

Avengers AOU theater count: 4276

Could AOU have been bigger if it was given the same theater cound as the first Avengers? Also, it seems to me that the trailers and TV spots seemed to show all of the cool stuff, they didn't leave nothing for the movie. Maybe Disney execs dropped the ball on this one. Now the question is, was it by accident, or on purpose?

 

[thanos1990]

After seeing it... I am more than fine with it not beating TA1.

That sounds like a bad thing

 

[warriorking]

Will probably do the same or a little more Tonight, but Sunday may surprise with a larger turnout than expected...

 

[Iceman]

Somebody said that it's actually opening in less theaters than the first Avengers, so there is that.

Ok. From BOM, here's a go.

Harry Potter and Deathly Hallows 2 theater count: 4375

Avengers 1 theater count: 4349

Avengers AOU theater count: 4276

Could AOU have been bigger if it was given the same theater cound as the first Avengers? Also, it seems to me that the trailers and TV spots seemed to show all of the cool stuff, they didn't leave nothing for the movie. Maybe Disney execs dropped the ball on this one. Now the question is, was it by accident, or on purpose?

Why would they drop the ball on purpose? t:

If they really want to drop the ball don't even release it. Just write off the costs as a loss and sell all the rights for free!

 

[Tony Stark]

Somebody said that it's actually opening in less theaters than the first Avengers, so there is that.

Ok. From BOM, here's a go.

Harry Potter and Deathly Hallows 2 theater count: 4375

Avengers 1 theater count: 4349

Avengers AOU theater count: 4276

Could AOU have been bigger if it was given the same theater cound as the first Avengers? Also, it seems to me that the trailers and TV spots seemed to show all of the cool stuff, they didn't leave nothing for the movie. Maybe Disney execs dropped the ball on this one. Now the question is, was it by accident, or on purpose?

I know AoU had more screens than A1, but yes this is a problem, because in lowering theater count your reduction your market penetration.

Case in point Theater A is 3 miles away from my house, but it's not showing AoU, but the next closest theater is 20 miles away and has 10 screenings of AoU.

There is an effect here, but it's hard to measure, but this is why alot are expecting Star Wars to have the best shot at the record, should AoU fall short, or even get the record, because it's going to be the widest release ever.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Somebody said that it's actually opening in less theaters than the first Avengers, so there is that.

Ok. From BOM, here's a go.

Harry Potter and Deathly Hallows 2 theater count: 4375

Avengers 1 theater count: 4349

Avengers AOU theater count: 4276

Could AOU have been bigger if it was given the same theater cound as the first Avengers? Also, it seems to me that the trailers and TV spots seemed to show all of the cool stuff, they didn't leave nothing for the movie. Maybe Disney execs dropped the ball on this one. Now the question is, was it by accident, or on purpose?

Screen count is more important than theater count. The first Avengers did not have enough screens and shows to meet demand. The same is not true this time. IM3 and TA2 both had much bigger screen counts than TA1, which means it's easier to meet demand.

 

[warhorse78]

Why would they drop the ball on purpose? t:

If they really want to drop the ball don't even release it. Just write off the costs as a loss and sell all the rights for free!

Because they don't want to be obvious about it. Look, Kevin Feige and Marvel took the Disney buyout, hoping Disney's marketing muscle and nearly unlimited bankaccount could help them in building the MCU world. Disney bought Marvel, not for the stories, but for the potential to make more money. I honestly believe Disney has already gotten their money back thanks to merchandise and the success of the first Avengers. I can definitely see the CEOs at Disney, sitting back and watching Feige unveil his plans at Black Panther, Spider-Man, Inhumans, Infinity Wars 1 and 2, and so on and so on, seeing the cast roster getting bigger and bigger, and be like, wait, this is going to cost us tons of money. We need an exit strategy, what can we do about it. Uh, lets try and slow the momentum down for MCU, when that finally happens, use it to push out certain Marvel execs, like Ike and Feige, and then do a complete Disneyfication of the MCU.

I know it sounds like hogwash, but really, in the end, Disney will stay hands off of such a property for only so long. Why did they put Avengers 2 in less theaters than the first movie? Huh? What was the point of that?