Guardians of the Galaxy Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

[Wrath]

Tossed in some edits.

PS - Not a statistician, but I am a financial analyst so I've had some practice at this stuff.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

A for effort at the very least. Makes me feel like a lazy slob. Welcome, Wrath!

 

[Flint Marko]

I hope your predictions are close. They seem sound far as I can tell.

 

[Rock Sexton]

Now, overseas box office.

*THE* big change in movie revenue over the last few years has been the rise of overseas box office. Before looking into the numbers, I had no idea how much this has changed in the last 10 years or so.

Over the entire group of movies, OS revenue came in at 1.36x domestic revenue but its strongly influenced by year.

2011 - 2014 release
Best multiple: DoFP - 2.2
Worst multiple: CAFA - 1.1
Average multiple: 1.63

2002 - 2010 release
Best multiple: SM3 1.65
Worst multiple: IM 0.84
Average multiple: 1.05

So, the best multiple from 2002-2010 was barely ahead of the average from 2011-2014, and the worst multiple from 2011-2014 was ahead of the average from 2002-2010.

Second, sequels may do better than original titles, though this could be a function of release dates. Here's some examples:

CAFA - 1.1
CA:TWS - 1.75

IM - 0.84
IM2 - 1.00
IM3 - 1.97

SM - 1.03
SM2 - 1.10
SM3 - 1.65
ASM - 1.89

Thor - 1.48
TDW - 2.13

DK - 0.88
DKR - 1.42

I think I've made the point.

So, here's the big conclusion. International box office is now huge and while it certainly varies from movie to movie, high grossing comic book adaptations seem to have been well received internationally (I didn't bother looking into Green Lantern or the like, but even FF did ok making 112% overseas as it did domestically) and the trend is getting stronger over time.

GotG even conservatively should reasonably come in somewhat stronger than the 2011-2014 average multiple. Lets say around 1.8, around the same as CATWS, but weaker than TDW or DoFP.

We end up with an expected global box office of:

203 * (1+1.8) = 203*2.8 = $568M

And this assumes we use moderately conservative assumptions at every single step. If we use the same methodology, but assume moderately optimistic assumptions (lets say $80M opening weekend, 90% RT, and a 2.0 domestic-international multiple) we get:

80 * (2.7+(15*.02)) * (2.0 + 1.0) =

80 * 3 * 3 =

= $720M

Personally, I think that's a little high. I think it'll open at $75M, end up at 90% RT, and do a domestic to international multiple of 1.9 which ends up around $650M.

So, in conclusion, a global BO over $500M is far more of a sure thing than I'd have thought. Missing that number requires some extraordinarily pessimistic assumptions to even be possible. And $800M, which I originally thought was absurdly, ludicrously high... still remains absurdly high, but I now have to concede that its actually possible. In fact, I'd say an $800M global total is more likely than a $400M global total. Wow.

PS - Yes, even I recognized at the time that Watchmen sucked. I think that's part of why my original GotG estimates were as low as they were. Still not sure why I'm so into this flick. I'm still in comics but I've still never read GotG.

PS - On the original list of 25ish movies, I mostly took top box office, but I excluded ones that fundamentally seemed different. The stuff I excluded included: All the MiB moves, 300, and anything before 2000 (the original Batman and Superman franchises).

Thanks for these international numbers. I got into a conversation about a month or so ago in another forum on this site about how much the international community has changed the landscape for these movies in the last 3-4 years. So while to the layman some of them seem like impressive numbers, it's actually turning into dare I say more "par for the course" and why people have begun focusing on the golden billion dollar mark.

 

[flickchick85]

Excellent posts, Wrath. Welcome!

I'll be very interested in seeing how accurately that math ultimately tells the story on this. And I hope you're right! Hell, even if it doesn't quite hit those numbers, if it even approaches the same ballpark, that would still be a fantastic run for this movie.

 

[Wrath]

Thanks, all. Crunching the numbers was fun.

Was just thinking about the bounds of the voting choices and what they implied if you worked backwards. For fun, I threw this together.

If you think GotG will make $X amount globally, then this is what you're really saying.

$800m+ - $90m+ open, 90%+ RT, strong international response
$700m+ - $80m+ open, 90%+ RT, average to strong international response
$600m+ - $70m+ open, 85%+ RT, average international response
$500m+ - $60m+ open, 85%+ RT, fair to average international response
$400m+ - $50m+ open, 80-85% RT, fair international response
$300m+ - $45m+ open, 75-80% RT, weak to fair international response
$200m+ - $35-40m open, 70-75% RT, bad to weak international response
Under $200m - under $30m open, under 70% RT, bad international response

Those bottom ones look pretty unlikely today but I recognize some of those could have been cast AGES ago so its unfair to poke fun.

Imo, the distribution of outcomes now looks something like:

$800m+ 5%
$700m+ 20%
$600m+ 50%
$500m+ 22%
$400m+ 3%

 

[8ulk]

Some very interesting math indeed...

But u dont need that formula to see how GoTG is doing 650 mil WW.

Its a nobrainer at this point.

its tracking for a 73 mil OP.W. in the US

thats a 200+ mil guarentee based on the reviews. and it can easily do 225 mil or even more close to CAP2 TWS numbers. no surprise here.

as far as OS is concerned again its no surprise these kind of movies do well and with the ever expanding China numbers every movie released has a better potential for more grosses.

The Wolverine did 282 mil OS. 300+ is a LOCK for Guardians. Its not getting lower than 300. A nobrainer.

How much it will do OS ? probably the same as CAP2 TWS or Thor 2 TDW did. over 400 mil.
Yes the GA doesnt know all the details but they arent dumb. they know the connection between The Avengers and all of the Marvel Studios CMU.

200mil DOM & 400 mil OS is a safe bet. a nobrainer really. And these are modest predictions. 600 mil WW is guarenteed. We can easily assume a 600-700 mil gross.
And few will be surprised if it does more.

 

[Wrath]

The international response is the multiple within the context of successful, big budget comic book adaptions of the last few years.

 

[warhorse78]

Hate to rain on your parade but the odds are slim to none that it will make a billion. Awesome as that would be haha.

We don't know that. Maybe not at first, but maybe this thing might get a huge cult following, and in a few years, after some re-releases, it might eventually get to a billion. Heck, look at Jurassic Park!

 

[Flint Marko]

We don't know that. Maybe not at first, but maybe this thing might get a huge cult following, and in a few years, after some re-releases, it might eventually get to a billion. Heck, look at Jurassic Park!

Haha I mean look as I said, I'd love for that to happen. I just don't see this making anymore than a Thor or a Captain America movie. I think it'll surprise people and make more than a lot would have first surmised, but a billion is a little out of range here. Especially since it's an August release.

 

[Donut]

Over $9,000

 

[Capfan]

Marvel's just have some superb star cast in each of their movies. Even in "Guardians of the Galaxy" the cast is amazing which consist of Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana, Dave Bautista, Vin Diesel, Bradley Cooper, Benicio del Toro, Glenn Close, John C. Reilly, Lee Pace, Michael Rooker, Karen Gillian, and Djimon Hounsou. This looks like it will be a great movie! I am counting days to the 14th of August!

 

[Tim_Riggins]

The Marvel Studios logo alone is a guarantee of the movie being a success. Other than that, great great buzz, incredibly attractive characters to the general audience (have this friend who fell in love immediately with Rocket from the trailers), something different & fresh, epic.

 

[fixxxer]

Hey Wrath! Welcome to the boards.

I am have some experience in statistical analysis... fantastic work. I was a couple of sentences into your post when I thought "I feel a linear regression coming up..."

 

[Suzanne78]

Wrath, that was some extraordinary work you put into your calculations! Also, the fact that there is a statistical basis for GOTG to get to $600mil.+ is...

 

[Wrath]

Some very interesting math indeed...

But u dont need that formula to see how GoTG is doing 650 mil WW.

Its a nobrainer at this point.

its tracking for a 73 mil OP.W. in the US

thats a 200+ mil guarentee based on the reviews. and it can easily do 225 mil or even more close to CAP2 TWS numbers. no surprise here.

as far as OS is concerned again its no surprise these kind of movies do well and with the ever expanding China numbers every movie released has a better potential for more grosses.

The Wolverine did 282 mil OS. 300+ is a LOCK for Guardians. Its not getting lower than 300. A nobrainer.

How much it will do OS ? probably the same as CAP2 TWS or Thor 2 TDW did. over 400 mil.
Yes the GA doesnt know all the details but they arent dumb. they know the connection between The Avengers and all of the Marvel Studios CMU.

200mil DOM & 400 mil OS is a safe bet. a nobrainer really. And these are modest predictions. 600 mil WW is guarenteed. We can easily assume a 600-700 mil gross.
And few will be surprised if it does more.

Eh. While I mostly agree with your conclusion, the problem I have is that you're getting there by cherry picking numbers. The TDW did the best international box office, relative to its domestic box office, of any non-X-men MCU movie, ever. And only DoFP narrowly edged it. And TDW is a sequel, and this is a space in which sequels have arguably outperformed their originals. Assuming GotG does as well as TDW OS off its domestic take is a very optimistic scenario, not a conservative one.

If GotG puts up numbers somewhere between the first movie in both those series, Thor and CAFA (instead of their follow-ups), we're looking at around $400M global BO and a lot of sadness. CATWS made more in just overseas revenue (and it was actually pretty weak overseas relative to domestic) than Thor or CAFA made in total global BO.

I think GotG is likely to have a much lower opening day BO than TDW or CATWS (TDW was $85M, CATWS was $95M, and I expect GotG to come in at more like $75M), but it has an advantage over each of them which, I think, will result in the 3 movies ending up with vaguely similar global BOs (though taking 3 different paths to get there).

In the case of TDW, GotG has substantially better reviews which should translate into much better legs. TDW had a really strong opening weekend, but deeply mediocre legs thanks, I suspect, to mediocre reviews. However, it then did a fantastic job of translating that into OS BO. I think GotG will end up with comparable or probably better domestic revenue to TDW despite a weaker opening weekend thanks to the reviews.

CATWS, on the other hand, had a great opening weekend and solid domestic legs (thanks in part to very strong reviews), but it did a terrible job of translating its domestic performance into OS performance. CATFA was also really bad at that, btw, and was the single worst at it of everything released from 2011-2014. If I had to guess, I'd say that a character named *CAPTAIN AMERICA* might not be quite as appealing to the average non-US movie goer as a more generic superhero. GotG, lacking that naming handicap, will, I think, do a better job of turning its domestic BO into OS BO.

In conclusion, I think you're a little overconfident here. Sure, its possible, even probable, that GotG has a $70M+ opening weekend. But I can think of (unlikely) scenarios in which it comes in at a $60-65M opening weekend. And if that's the case, there's almost no chance of it reaching $600M and anything else going wrong (the Chinese hating it for cultural reasons opaque to me) could put it sub $500M.

Sure, I don't *think* that's what will happen, but it might. If you're rolling a 6-sided die and need to roll a "2" or better to win, you've got an excellent chance of winning. But 1 time in 6 you're going to lose.

PS - Put in a few edits.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Wrath I like your style! I also look forward to your analysis on future movies. I also like that you are in the $600m WW range since I said that way early and people called me crazy, I have a knack for what the GA will dig and it seems like this is going to exceed many an expectation IMO.

Also welcome to the Hype!

 

[Suzanne78]

Hey, Wrath, I know this is the GOTG boards, but… based on your calculations, what would have been considered decent OS box office for CATWS relative to it's DOM performance?

We've been thinking it's done so well overseas, at least relative to the first CATFA, and it's considered a success, but now your analysis has me intrigued, and I can't shake it LOL!

I do love how you've calculated GOTG's potential B.O. successes and probabilities though. Gives me a lot of hope that it won't be Marvel's failure.

 

[Wrath]

Wrath I like your style! I also look forward to your analysis on future movies. I also like that you are in the $600m WW range since I said that way early and people called me crazy, I have a knack for what the GA will dig and it seems like this is going to exceed many an expectation IMO.

Also welcome to the Hype!

Thanks, nice to be here. I have no idea if the methodology holds up for non-comic book adaption action flicks but it would be interesting if it did. I suspect action films have a much wider range of domestic to OS multiples than comic book adaptations do.

No comic book adaptation has ever accomplished anything even vaguely close to what T:AoE is doing right now, for example, and TotM came in very close to what TDW did despite coming out 3 years earlier. Since Pacific Rim also scored very close to T:AoE, I'd guess that there's a lot of cultural idiosyncracy out there. OS, people *love* giant robots. And, looking quickly through the numbers, they actually just love robots in general. The Robocop remake, as well as older robot movies like I, Robot with Will Smith have translated very well.

On the other hand, generic action movies, even sci fi ones like Hunger Games or the Star Trek movies, have actually been pretty weak.

Hey, Wrath, I know this is the GOTG boards, but… based on your calculations, what would have been considered decent OS box office for CATWS relative to it's DOM performance?

We've been thinking it's done so well overseas, at least relative to the first CATFA, and it's considered a success, but now your analysis has me intrigued, and I can't shake it LOL!

I do love how you've calculated GOTG's potential B.O. successes and probabilities though. Gives me a lot of hope that it won't be Marvel's failure.

Well, its a little hard to say what counts as "decent" since its a fairly small sample. For perspective, CATWS would have brought in another $120M OS had it translated its domestic BO to OS BO as well as TDW did. And I probably overstated CATWS as being "weak" in terms of translating domestic BO to overseas when really it was more like "probably a little below average". Had it done "well", it would probably have done more like $500-510M OS instead of $450Mish.

 

[Suzanne78]

So if OS audiences love robot movies, I shudder in anticipation of the numbers that Age of Ultron could possibly do overseas.

But it sounds like if the OS market doesn't go for typical sci-fi movies, then the floor for GOTG could still pull in anywhere from $450-500 reasonably?

 

[Ghostcrow13]

It's not overseas that love robots, it is China specifically, Transformers has done over 300mill there, TWS only got 115mill, you add that extra 200 mill and TWS is doing Transformers numbers.

 

[Wrath]

After looking into it a little more, it looks like, after controlling a bit for the year of release, its more that some really US culturally specific moves don't do well. Hunger Games may have been *the* most OS-underachieving movie I've seen given when it was released, and the Star Trek movies really just don't do well OS. Into Darkness did roughly as well as CATFA OS, and it did *by far* the best of the Star Trek movies in that regard.

But looking at other non-US specific action movies, they've generally done fine. Indiana Jones does great overseas (He's US-specific, but his adventures take him all over the place which I think helps, though Jason Bourne doesn't really do that well. He's also been around forever which I think helps more than anything), everything from Tolkien does great, James Bond does great, Harry Potter was great from the start. Pirates of the Caribbean started off ok but gradually ramped up to great.

Sequels typically do better, in some cases *much* better, than initial films so I think awareness is a big deal.

Dramas and comedies tend to be much worse. The Twilight movies started bad but got much better, Castaway was mediocre, Wall-E did ok but not great, Wedding Crashers did terrible. I think part of the problem with dramas is just awareness because there aren't that many really big budget, high box office dramas. No Country for Old Men was mediocre, Argo was bad.

I have no idea what the international marketing and awareness effort is like for GotG, but if they've done a good job of tying it into the rest of the MCU (and since Marvel has pretty well established that they know what they're doing at this point, that seems like a good bet) then I think my $650M guess still looks pretty good.

 

[Wrath]

I will say, at the risk of getting even further Off-topic, that looking through the numbers on all these movies has been very informative to me. There are some movies that did *great* in the box office that I wouldn't have guessed. Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull for example. Mediocre reviews (better than Hercules, though) and I always thought it did ok but not great which made me sad because I kinda liked it. But in fact it had a huge opening weekend, surprisingly solid legs after that and then was solid overseas as well. It was *huge*. Who knew?

Ok, enough non GotG stuff. Though really I'm just killing time until more reviews come in.

 

[Suzanne78]

Wrath, you should really keep it coming

Also, if you have the inclination, you should totally post in the GOTG boxoffice.com forums thread. This is really crazy interesting. And also, looking at it from a pure numbers/stats standpoint, objective.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Wrath given that TMNT comes out the weekend after GotG release and it's a Bay-splosion reboot do you think GotG will soundly defeat it and remain number one. I remember the 90's movies where huge but I was told the last TMNT movie came out in 07 or something like that (news to me) and did not do very well. I know the TMNT cartoon has a decent following of the kids today so what do you think the TMNT movie will do while up against GotG second week?