Guardians of the Galaxy Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

[Wrath]

I'm not sure. The one thing I have no idea how to even estimate is opening weekend BO. TMNT is apparently tracking for $37M opening weekend and $95M total domestic according to Boxoffice.com. If it does indeed come in that low and GotG overachieves even a little bit from where its expected now (someone was saying that GotG is now tracking at $80m but I can't find where they got that number from), GotG would stand a 50/50 (or better) chance of winning that weekend as well.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Wow I had no idea it was tracking that low. I know many hate bay and he is just a producer. I thought the 2nd trailer was pretty good myself but I don't like the design of the turtles at all. Also not a fan of Megan Fox as April. I plan on buying at least 2 tickets for GotG that weekend just to help them out anyway. I'll more than likely catch TMNT on HBO

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I'm not sure. The one thing I have no idea how to even estimate is opening weekend BO. TMNT is apparently tracking for $37M opening weekend and $95M total domestic according to Boxoffice.com. If it does indeed come in that low and GotG overachieves even a little bit from where its expected now (someone was saying that GotG is now tracking at $80m but I can't find where they got that number from), GotG would stand a 50/50 (or better) chance of winning that weekend as well.

I disagree with boxoffice.com.

No way TMNT doesn't hit 40 m OW.

If Lucy can open to 44 m then so can TMNT.

 

[Wrath]

I disagree with boxoffice.com.

No way TMNT doesn't hit 40 m OW.

If Lucy can open to 44 m then so can TMNT.

Yeah, I tend to agree that $37M feels low. On the other hand, no reviews for TMNT yet (which is fine, I wouldn't have expected any at this point). If it turns out to be bad, that $37M might be accurate. Also, I suspect that Boxoffice.com thinks GotG has an above average chance to outperform its tracking, and is partially sandbagging its guess on TMNT in GotG breaks out huge.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

What I've read for TMNT so far has been pretty meh, most are saying it's kind of cool but then does something stupid that takes you right back out of it. Also I think Rocket and Groot will resonate more with the kids than this take on the Turtles. I just don't think they are as big as they once were

 

[Docker2.0]

I'm not sure. The one thing I have no idea how to even estimate is opening weekend BO. TMNT is apparently tracking for $37M opening weekend and $95M total domestic according to Boxoffice.com. If it does indeed come in that low and GotG overachieves even a little bit from where its expected now (someone was saying that GotG is now tracking at $80m but I can't find where they got that number from), GotG would stand a 50/50 (or better) chance of winning that weekend as well.

Gawd I hope you are right! I can't stand Michael Bay! I love TMNT but I have no plans to see this movie in theaters, nor taking the family. He lost me with the Transformers. They should be good films for everyone. Not brown nosing MS but you can take your family to the Avengers or even TWS(stretch but still). Can't say that with Bay movies. He always includes dirty jokes with scantily clad women in movies aimed at kids. Haven't seen that in TMNT thus far but knowing dude, it's in there.

 

[Moridin]

Gawd I hope you are right! I can't stand Michael Bay! I love TMNT but I have no plans to see this movie in theaters, nor taking the family. He lost me with the Transformers. They should be good films for everyone. Not brown nosing MS but you can take your family to the Avengers or even TWS(stretch but still). Can't say that with Bay movies. He always includes dirty jokes with scantily clad women in movies aimed at kids. Haven't seen that in TMNT thus far but knowing dude, it's in there.

... Bay didn't direct TMNT.

He produced it. Though from the trailers it does look just like TF, just with the Transformers switched out for Turtles.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

I don't know why it's so surprising that TMNT could possibly open low. The last two films in the franchise (the most latest one being at 2007) couldn't even crack 30 million adjusted, and its highest grossing entry (at the peak of the franchise's popularity) only opened at 48 million adjusted, and decreased to 38 million adjusted the following year for the sequel. And just like the 2014 film, all previous entries had a hit TV series going on at some form or another.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Back to GOTG, RS supposedly had the film tracking at the low 80s.

 

[Docker2.0]

... Bay didn't direct TMNT.

He produced it. Though from the trailers it does look just like TF, just with the Transformers switched out for Turtles.

He's involved!!!!

 

[Moridin]

He's involved!!!!

True

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

If this breaks the August record how many records well Marvel Studios have now?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

If this breaks the August record how many records well Marvel Studios have now?

Here's a few:

biggest OW - Avengers
biggest summer OW - Avengers
biggest April OW - Cap 2
biggest April domestic total - Cap 2
biggest May OW - Avengers
biggest May domestic total - Avengers
biggest PG-13 OW - Avengers
biggest summer start - Avengers
biggest second weekend - Avengers
top opening theater averages for a wide release - Avengers
biggest Saturday - Avengers
biggest Sunday - Avengers
biggest 3-day, 4-day, 5-day, 6-day, 7-day, 8-day, 9-day and 10-day - Avengers
Fastest to 100 m, 150 m, 200 m, 250 m, 300 m, 350 m, 400 m, 450 m, 500 m - Avengers

There's probably more.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Haha wow that is awesome. Love the MCU breaking records

 

[redhawk23]

'Records' have gotten so hyper specific as so many websites have begun covering such things.

I've honestly seen reports of "biggest winter wednesday opening for a non sequel."

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Here's a few:

biggest OW - Avengers
biggest summer OW - Avengers
biggest April OW - Cap 2
biggest April domestic total - Cap 2
biggest May OW - Avengers
biggest May domestic total - Avengers
biggest PG-13 OW - Avengers
biggest summer start - Avengers
biggest second weekend - Avengers
top opening theater averages for a wide release - Avengers
biggest Saturday - Avengers
biggest Sunday - Avengers
biggest 3-day, 4-day, 5-day, 6-day, 7-day, 8-day, 9-day and 10-day - Avengers
Fastest to 100 m, 150 m, 200 m, 250 m, 300 m, 350 m, 400 m, 450 m, 500 m - Avengers

There's probably more.

I have faith and hope that it may be the record breaker for original Marvel movie to reach a billion worldwide. I'm not kidding.

 

[Wrath]

I have faith and hope that it may be the record breaker for original Marvel movie to reach a billion worldwide. I'm not kidding.

Look for happiness in small things. If you wait for the extraordinary to be happy, then you will never be happy. Because the extraordinary is only possible in the future, never now. Once the extraordinary occurs, it is no longer extraordinary, it is now ordinary, because it has happened.

GotG opening to $65M, making $170M domestically and $500M worldwide are numbers that would make it a huge success in the eyes of its makers and the broader world, and validate the decision to green-light the sequel early. If you can find a way to be happy with that result, then you will be a happy person.

If you hold out for a billion, you'll die old, bitter and alone.

But no pressure.

 

[kedrell]

I have faith and hope that it may be the record breaker for original Marvel movie to reach a billion worldwide. I'm not kidding.

While that'd be nice, I'm not going to hold my breath for it. I still hope for at least $630M WW even though I know that's a long shot.

But around $400M WW is the line to cross and be sequel worthy from a financial perspective.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

MTC has GOTG opening at 66 million.

 

[flickchick85]

^That would be a good opening, but I'm personally hoping for it to open upwards of $70m.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

If it does over $70m, this might be the most impressive showing from a MCU film to date. Brand power.

 

[TheVileOne]

Honestly, I really think it has to be higher than $70 million. I hope it does well and we get a sequel.

But I really don't know. A film like this is kind of uncharted territory.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Well they already announced a sequel, it would have to do pretty bad for them to cancel the plans since they announced them at SDCC

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Honestly, I really think it has to be higher than $70 million. I hope it does well and we get a sequel.

But I really don't know. A film like this is kind of uncharted territory.

If this film does Thor numbers, it will be fine. They will see it as a building block to something bigger. There is a reason they already announced the sequel. t:

 

[Raiden]

Honestly, I really think it has to be higher than $70 million. I hope it does well and we get a sequel.

But I really don't know. A film like this is kind of uncharted territory.

I believe the OW will be higher than 70mil. I think the momentum has been building for this movie at the right time, and the flurry of positive reviews will convince some skeptical moviegoers to check it out.