Guardians of the Galaxy Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

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GotG is not going to make less then the Wolverine did in the same time frame. I am positive of this. Not with Marvel's name attached. Not with Rocket. The OS markets are going to eat up the space ships and talking animals.
Honestly, that remains to be seen, and I believe that this movie will shape Marvel's approach to some of their lesser known properties. People have been saying for years that Iron Man, Thor, and Captain America are C & D-list heroes, but that's never been true, not in this plane of existence anyway. All of them, Hulk included, have always been Marvel's golden boys. Guardians, on the other hand, is a legitimately obscure property, and if it does make big money, then that will give Feige and Co. the greenlight to move forward on several of their smaller titles with greater confidence.
 
Based on the 1st trailer

Opening Weekend: $35 million
Domestic: $100 million
Worldwide: $290 million

If Star Trek 2009 couldn't even get $400 million worldwide and it was released in May. I don't see this film making more than that with the August release date. Last year, blockbuster fatigue happened in late July, there's also competition from Ninja Turtles and the trailer is not really that appealing.

That might your feeling, but it's not the majority one. I don't see how you can factor that into disappointing box office results when it's factually untrue.
 
The movie will be a failure.
Only comic book people will actually care for it.
The general audience will not care one bit.
 
Isildur´s Heir;27992451 said:
The movie will be a failure.
Only comic book people will actually care for it.
The general audience will not care one bit.

Current evidence suggests otherwise. Do I think it'll be as big a success as the more established superhero franchises hitting this summer? No. But "failure?" Hardly. It's possible, I guess, but it's much more likely that people that make posts like this will have egg on their faces in a few months.
 
Isildur´s Heir;27992451 said:
The movie will be a failure.
Only comic book people will actually care for it.
The general audience will not care one bit.

Just like Iron Man in 2008....
 
Why would only comic book people care for it? It doesn't look like any other comic book movie. Looks like a quirky sci fi action comedy.

This is only the first trailer remember, this is just the tip of the iceberg. Just imagine how many striking money shots will be in the second and third trailers. This trailer set the tone with it's quirky sense of humour and unique production design, plus it showed glimpses of some cool action scenes including what looks like a huge aerial dog fight.

Honestly, it's one of the best first trailers i've seen. As mentioned before, even the first Avengers trailer was abysmal... and now it's the third highest grossing film of all time. Obviously GotG won't be touching those kinds of numbers, but i think it will be a success. Either way, i'm just happy they are actually makiing a GotG movie. It's absurd really that Marvel are making this film and WB are still hesitant about Wonder Woman and Flash. I want a WW film goshdarnit!
 
Isildur´s Heir;27992451 said:
The movie will be a failure.
Only comic book people will actually care for it.
The general audience will not care one bit.

‘Guardians of the Galaxy’ Trailer a Social Media Smash, Bigger Than ‘Man of Steel’

Twitter and Facebook users were hooked on “The Guardians of the Galaxy,” making the first trailer for the Marvel superhero film a viral smash, according to a survey by social media research firm Fizziology.

After debuting Tuesday on “Jimmy Kimmel Live!,” the footage for the upcoming outer space adventure attracted 88,000 mentions across Twitter, Facebook and various blogs in a 12-hour period between 11 p.m. EST until 11 a.m. EST. By way of contrast, in the first 24 hours following their trailer debuts, “Man of Steel” attracted 75,000 social mentions, and “The Amazing Spider-Man 2″ inspired 96,000 mentions — and those were released at a reasonable hour.

“The Guardians of the Galaxy” trailer has drawn more than 4 million views on “Jimmy Kimmel Live!’s” YouTube page.

“The reaction was giddy,” Ben Carlson, president and co-creator of Fizziology, said. “I think a lot of people didn’t know how the film was going to work, it’s five superheroes and one of them is a raccoon and another is a tree. But they nailed the tone. It was light and fun and full of action and you see that reflected in the social media reaction.”

Carlson’s description of the film’s off-beat appeal is accurate. “The Guardians of the Galaxy” centers on a cadre of intergalactic misfits, one of whom is a raccoon adventurer named Rocket (voiced by Bradley Cooper) and another is a tree-like creature called Groot (vocal honors come courtesy of Vin Diesel). Rocket Raccoon was mentioned in 3 percent of conversations, while Groot was only brought up in 1 percent of the social media back-and-forth. But those characters weren’t generating the lion’s share of buzz.

Most of viewers’ attention was focused on Chris Pratt, the “Parks & Recreation” actor who plays Peter Quill, a.k.a Star Lord, a devil-may-care Earthling-turned-space-traveler. Pratt and his on-screen alter ego were mentioned in 5 percent of the social conversation, Fizziology reports, the most of any character or actor in the film.

“He was earning a lot of comparisons to a young Harrison Ford as Han Solo, so that’s a good sign,” Carlson said.

Unlike many superhero films, “The Guardians of the Galaxy” is not a household name and the level of discussion around the footage is all the more impressive because it premiered late at night. Most teasers debut mid-day, giving them more time to build up a presence online.

One warning: This may not make the perfect date night movie — Fizziology reports that 75 percent of the social conversation came from men — but it is diverse in another respect: 32 percent of the social chatter hailed from New York and Los Angeles, which is less than most trailers, which typically see more than 40 percent of discussions coming from those two cities.

The use of the 1970s Blue Swede easy listening hit, “Hooked on a Feeling,” was another standout. The title of the song and its memorable opening lines, “Ooga-chucka ooga-ooga,” popped up in 2 percent of discussion around the film.

“Guardians of the Galaxy” debuts on Aug. 1, 2014.

http://www.thewrap.com/guardians-galaxy-trailer-social-media-smash-bigger-man-steel/
 
Isildur´s Heir;27992451 said:
The movie will be a failure.
Only comic book people will actually care for it.
The general audience will not care one bit.



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The Forbes article was interesting. I wasn't aware it was so rare for an August film to make over $500 million. So it'd be crazy if Guardians of the Galaxy were to pull it off. The only chance it has if it is truly excellent, generating enough good word of mouth to make it a "you gotta see this" pop culture event, really give it some legs.

It's a huge show of confidence from Marvel and if the marketing keeps playing as well as it has so far it might even break the all time record.
It's insane to imagine it could surpass $672 million but if it crosses $450 it'll prove that Marvel is an unstoppable powerhouse so long as the quality is maintained.
 
That unknown comic thing is a bunch of BS because none of the properties that article listed will have nearly the push this will and aren't $150m+ movies. This has every much of a chance to succeed as any new summer blockbuster IP, looking at it as a small comic book movie is a flawed foundation to make an argument for how it will perform at the box office on.
 
If the only argument against this failing is that it's featuring an unknown group of heroes & that it's laced with comedy rather than being overly serious, they clearly have learned nothing from the last three Iron Man films.

GOTG will do fine...I think the fact that the first trailer has 14 million plus views is a great sign. GOTG did the same numbers that Captain America's TWS trailer did in a week & did better than several of the new TASM 2 trailers that have been released. I'm pretty sure that's a sign that the interest level has increased greatly.

This movie is no longer mainly within the minds of just comic book fans. To say only comic book fans will go see this is utterly ridiculous.
 
Ultimately, the budget will determine what's a success for GoTG. As long as they kept the budget in the $150 M range, it should be able to make money back and prove sequel worthy.

I still say Rise of the Planet of the Apes is a great example of what a successful GoTG film would gross. That film came out in early August of 2011, and grossed $176 M DOM and $305 M foreign. Assuming Guardians budget is $170 M or less, that would be qualified as a big success.

There's a danger of setting ourselves up for disappointment with $600 M predictions. It's the same ball game as Thor: The Dark World, with last years $800-$1 B predictions, and the disappointment that followed when the film "underperformed." If Guardians of the Galaxy can match the first Thor film, Disney should be giddy.
 
I am one that thinks that GotG will be Marvel's first flop. Don't get me wrong, I want to see the movie because I know it will have tie-ins to A3. Its just that the GA has no idea of that and they won't go on forums or Google information on the movie. Example given...when I watched CA:TWS the audience were surprised to find out who WS was! That proves that they know only of what they see in the theater or trailers not by other sources.

What I think might help this franchise is when they do bring up another trailer to have Thanos in his full glory. Only then the GA will get all excited to see the movie and where it will lead to the Avengers. They will go " that's the guy that came up in the Avengers." Not only will it spark interest from the GA but from the comic fans too.
 
I believe we'll see the movie perform similar to how CA: TFA did, but probably a little lower due to the unfamiliarity with the characters. If it gets good word of mouth, then maybe I could see them equaling TFA's numbers. I imagine Marvel may stick one of the first looks of AoU after credits so that could possibly add some interest that might not otherwise be there.
 
Unless they let the budget get out of control, I actually can't see it flopping. It might perform tepidly, but at this point, I can't see a Marvel Studios movie released in the summer doing less than 300+ M worldwide, which is enough to break even on a 150-170M budget.
 
I don't see this making less than Cap TFA worldwide (370 m).
 
I honestly don't see it making less than $500 million if it's marketed right & the product delivers as it should.
 
I believe we'll see the movie perform similar to how CA: TFA did, but probably a little lower due to the unfamiliarity with the characters. If it gets good word of mouth, then maybe I could see them equaling TFA's numbers. I imagine Marvel may stick one of the first looks of AoU after credits so that could possibly add some interest that might not otherwise be there.

Why does unfamiliarity of the characters matter? There have been original properties that have taken off before. How is a little known adaptation any different than a brand new property? No one knew the N'avi, Shrek, Captain Jack Sparrow etc before those became mega film franchises.

While I agree GoTG doesn't have the same safety net of Batman or Spider-Man, it's not necessarily doomed to fail because it's "not as famous." If the movie looks appealing, people will see it.
 
Based on the 1st trailer

Opening Weekend: $35 million
Domestic: $100 million
Worldwide: $290 million

If Star Trek 2009 couldn't even get $400 million worldwide and it was released in May. I don't see this film making more than that with the August release date. Last year, blockbuster fatigue happened in late July, there's also competition from Ninja Turtles and the trailer is not really that appealing. Right now, the only thing really going for the movie is the *Marvel* brand but I don't think it would do much work especially the lead characters of GOTG has yet to appear in an Avengers movie.

I don't think a disaster of this proportion is possible given the strength of the Marvel brand.

Marvel under Disney is currently averaging nearly $1 Billion a film (Avengers to present.) I have no doubts Guardians of the Galaxy is going to be the lowest grossing Disney/ Marvel film thus far, but that doesn't mean it's going to be a Green Lantern.

Your Star Trek comparison is off in that Star Trek is a notoriously weak brand abroad, and had no 3-D advantage. Paramount also has a poor track record abroad. A well reviewed Star Trek: Into Darkness grossed roughly the same as a poorly reviewed, no name propertly like John Carter in foreign markets.

You're basically predicting another JC. The Marvel Studios brand alone guarantees that this movie will do 25-30% better than John Carter's $280 M ww. Some people will show up simply because this is Marvel Studios, and it's attached to the Avengers in some way.

I think the floor for this film, assuming a typical Marvel Studios tomato meter of 75%ish, is $150 M domestic / $225 M foreign. The ceiling is probably $200 Domestic/ $300 M foreign, unless it hits some sort of pop culture nerve.
 
Guardians of the Galaxy is just not well known enough to gross over 400 million and the release date is not really strong. If this was being released in May, my predictions would have been higher. And its not like the lead characters of GOTG already appeared in The Avengers. Thor appeared in The Avengers and his post-Avengers film got 206 million in the U.S. I don't see GOTG it being close to the Dark World's domestic gross.
 
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