Guardians of the Galaxy Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

[ares834]

Like others have said it really is way too early to tell and it's even harder as GotG is a weird film to assess.

However, I feel that it will do quite good. For a variety of reasons. First, it has the Marvel name and secondly, from what I have seen, it appears to have an OT Star Wars vibe.

 

[smashmode]

Too soon, I need to see a trailer first.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

I hope this movie does a lot better than my prediction, which is around $300M worldwide. But it's really based on nothing except for phase one's box office (minus Avengers). I honestly have to wait and see how well Thor 2 and Cap 2 do because if those are in the $700M-900M worldwide range then this movie is good for at least $500M worldwide

 

[Antihero]

I can't take a film that has a raccoon as a character seriously.

 

[ctsketch]

I can't take a film that has a raccoon as a character seriously.

But I suppose Ewoks and giant walking carpets are okay

 

[Sentinel X]

If its REALLY lucky...
Domestic - 140
Worldwide -310

If not...
Domestic 70
Worldwide - 210

There is a limit on how well this will do based on the performances of Green Lantern, Star Trek, and X-men: First Class

 

[Mr. Dent]

What does First Class and Green Lantern have to do with this?

 

[T"Challa]

350-400 mill WW

 

[Spider-Vader]

What does First Class and Green Lantern have to do with this?

I can understand Green Lantern, it's another scifi superhero movie. But the First Class comparison makes no sense.

 

[Sentinel X]

It makes plenty of sense. First Class is an ensemble superhero film much like Guardians.

 

[Hyde]

It makes plenty of sense. First Class is an ensemble superhero film much like Guardians.

So because this is an ensemble it won't do so well? Avengers says hi.

 

[Mr. Dent]

I can understand Green Lantern, it's another scifi superhero movie. But the First Class comparison makes no sense.

They're two completely different kind of sci-fi movie though. Green Lantern is your typical post-modern sci-fi set on Earth with alien-elements that dabbles in actual space for maybe all of 10 minutes in the movie. GotG is full on space opera pulp fiction. They're not really comparable, so it's weird when people keep comparing them to me.

It makes plenty of sense. First Class is an ensemble superhero film much like Guardians.

Did you even think about this before posting?

 

[Sentinel X]

So because this is an ensemble it won't do so well? Avengers says hi.

I didn't say that. I am using X-men:FC as a template since it is so far away and we don't have an official trailer yet. Avengers had IRON MAN, Thor, CA, etc...all with movies released relatively close to each other. Also it was the first time superheroes with separate films all came together in one film. Its a completely different scenario than GOTG having relatively unknown characters showing up. If it makes anyone feel better I guess you can use X-men (2000) as a comparison rather than First Class, I just used FC because it is relatively recent and I feel that bad stigma from previous films and the popularity of the x-men characters kind of balanced out making it a good guideline for this film.

Did you even think about this before posting?

Dude...either you're dense or you're complaining because you don't like the prediction. Either way,I don't know what to do for you

 

[Saitou Hajime]

I didn't say that. I am using X-men:FC as a template since it is so far away and we don't have an official trailer yet. Avengers had IRON MAN, Thor, CA, etc...all with movies released relatively close to each other. Also it was the first time superheroes with separate films all came together in one film. Its a completely different scenario than GOTG having relatively unknown characters showing up. If it makes anyone feel better I guess you can use X-men (2000) as a comparison rather than First Class, I just used FC because it is relatively recent and I feel that bad stigma from previous films and the popularity of the x-men characters kind of balanced out making it a good guideline for this film.

First Class is a pseudo reboot and the fifth iteration of a franchise that is above average in the box office and has been steadily declining in the past few years. It also had less colorful personalities in its ensemble and more serious and melodramatic in tone.

 

[Mr. Dent]

And, you know, it's not set in space with aliens and spaceships and isn't about a bunch of ex-con space pirates who can barely be considered "superheroes. :/

There's literally no bit of similarity between Guardians of the Galaxy and First Class other than them being movies about teams...and Guardians is a much smaller team at that.

 

[Hyde]

What Dent and Saitou said.

 

[Sentinel X]

Okay but are we talking about box office or no? As people that know a little more about GotG we can make the distinction easily but box office has to do more with General Audience than a small number of fans. I personally can see the GA perceiving this to be like X-men in space, especially when that marvel logo shows up before the trailer starts. That's why I am using superhero, ensembles, and space films as a reference.

At the end of the day this film is going to be advertised as ensemble from Marvel comics fighting off bad guys and that is where the X-men comparison is coming from. There is nothing confusing or difficult to grasp unless you want to nitpick

 

[Mr. Dent]

Yes we are talking about box office because they are two different genre movies from two different franchises. X-Men is a tired franchise and First Class was barely pushed by Fox, Guardians is new and is already being pimped by Marvel a year out from its release.

People aren't going to see the Guardians of the Galaxy trailer and go "oh that's X-Men" they're going to think Star Wars and Galaxy Quest at best.

 

[Sentinel X]

I disagree.

I think most people will think GotG is Star Wars meets X-men or Star Trek with superhuman-like beings, or Green Lantern with an ensemble cast. I think its an appropriate comparison. I feel that the X-men fatigue and the sheer popularity of the franchise (which is undoubtedly higher that GotG) balances out to make it a fair comparison.

But even if people disagree with FC being a valid comparison BO wise, Star Trek and Green Lantern still are and those two didn't do amazing numbers WW either. None of them made more the 400 million so why would GotG? Its most like NOT going to happen...and 600+ ww is definitely a pipe dream

 

[Mr. Dent]

I have absolutely no idea how you keep coming to the conclusion that people are going to think X-Men other than that it has the Marvel brand attached and its a team film. By that logic then every team film should be associated with the X-Men, especially Avengers since it's Marvel branded too. :/

And as I said before, GL is not a good comparison because this movie IS NOTHING LIKE IT, and it won't look anything like it. This isn't a hard concept to grasp, it's completely different. Just because they have the superhero tag doesn't mean they're similar...and the Guardians are "superhero" in name and relation to Marvel only.

Star Trek is at least a palpable comparison that doesn't sound off base, but it's still not a good comparison because, again, this movie will not be like it. The only apt comparisons for this movie are Star Wars due to the pulp space opera element and Galaxy Quest as its a space action comedy...and even the comedies are sort of two different brands because this will be much more sultry and as James Gunn's humor is more black comedy than pure slapstick like Galaxy Quest's.

Simply put, there are no good comparisons for this movie, it's unprecedented on multiple levels. Star Trek's, Green Lantern's, First Class's, and even Star Wars' performances at the box office are not good indicators for this because it's inherently different from every single one of them. And if you wanted to simply summarize the movie up into something the general audience would associate it with based on trailers, it won't be Green Lantern or First Class, it will be Star Wars and Galaxy Quest, and that's how Marvel will play up the trailers.

 

[psylockolussus]

If its REALLY lucky...
Domestic - 140
Worldwide -310

If not...
Domestic 70
Worldwide - 210

There is a limit on how well this will do based on the performances of Green Lantern, Star Trek, and X-men: First Class

I agree with you! But with 3d and price inflation, I think it might get more like 30 to 50 million more.

And, you know, it's not set in space with aliens and spaceships and isn't about a bunch of ex-con space pirates who can barely be considered "superheroes. :/

There's literally no bit of similarity between Guardians of the Galaxy and First Class other than them being movies about teams...and Guardians is a much smaller team at that.

They are both sci-fi/action/comic-book films and like X-Men: First Class, its a movie based on Marvel Comics Characters! With that the comparison is justified!

 

[Mr. Dent]

It's really not. There are totally different "brands" of sci-fi and this is space opera above all else. That makes it completely and inherently different from First Class. There's not one iota of similarity between the two other than them being team films with Marvel branding, which isn't enough of a comparison to say one's box office should be indicative of the other.

Especially considering Disney is going to market this (and already has started) 100x better than Fox marketed First Class. They're completely different situations and completely different genres.

 

[lozzy.94]

I cant wait till next year and we can all say a massive "I told you so" to psylockolussus t:. But then I think he will probably just ignore the GOTG forums and start saying The Inhumans is going to flop.

 

[Mr. Dent]

That's exactly what he's going to do. He's said so himself. "If I'm wrong about Guardians then I'll probably not say anything and start complaining about the next Marvel movie with a bunch of obscure characters". lol.

 

[psylockolussus]

I cant wait till next year and we can all say a massive "I told you so" to psylockolussus t:. But then I think he will probably just ignore the GOTG forums and start saying The Inhumans is going to flop.

You're probably right. But if this film ends up grossing like 200 to 350 million, then I'm excited to see your reactions.

The ONLY thing that is really going on for this movie is the Marvel brand/logo. I bet if this movie didn't have the Marvel brand. People would just see this as 2014's R.I.P.D. Of course there's a lot of people who has faith with Marvel Studios that they believe that everything MS will release will be an instant hit at the box-office.