Guardians of the Galaxy Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

[Repulsor Blast]

i want what they're smoking. must be the same stuff Gunn is on.

not that i wouldn't be happy if that happened. link to the prediction?

i can't link it. it's from a magazine lol. page 69 of total film uk august issue.

but i suppose i can take a screen grab for you:

 

[psylockolussus]

Total Film UK predicts this will make 1.1 billion

Thats just insane!

 

[Repulsor Blast]

Thats just insane!

"'tis", replied aunt helga!

 

[Mr. Dent]

i can't link it. it's from a magazine lol. page 69 of total film uk august issue.

but i suppose i can take a screen grab for you:

haha i love that

 

[Zarex]

The Total Film estimate seems to be inflated - I was thinking about half of that total - but while GOTG may not have some of the big opening week numbers of its MCU bretheren, it may make up for it with an extended box office run. Looking at the August and September release schedule, TMNT opening the following week looks like the only film with the kind of all ages appeal of Guardians. If the film maintains a healthy % after Turtles opening it could be in theaters for a long while.

 

[Mr. Dent]

I think they put that there jokingly to emphasize how excited they are for it.

 

[Zarex]

I think they put that there jokingly to emphasize how excited they are for it.

It could be. But with Marvel studios having two movies thus far with over a billion dollars in ticket sales, it's not THAT crazy of an estimate.

 

[LEOZZTT]

I also think it was a metaphor for an intangible emotion that represents 1.1 billion dollars.

 

[Mr.M]

Yeah.... no. I am going with 400 millionish WW.

 

[Dr. Evil]

I can see this film being beaten down to death by the WWE since Dave Batista is back with the company. That can improve their numbers, unless the WWE screws it up, which is not out of the realm of possibility.

 

[armyofrobots]

I'm going to say $250-300million worldwide.

If it does more than that, I'll be very surprised. Super excited, but very surprised.

 

[BigThor]

High End - Thor: The Dark World numbers (600 M +)

Low End - CA:TFA numbers (350 M +)

Most Likely - Thor 1 numbers (400-500 M)

 

[Mr. Dent]

I'm going with $450m for now but my gut tells me it will do $500m+.

 

[Silver Surfer]

65 million opening

150ish Domestic

200ish Overseas

350+ Worldwide

 

[zeroapoc]

I'm putting it at $200 million plus. Which is still great. And hopefully it can do more.

Edit - Ok I messed up. I was thinking domestic. I'd say $400 million worldwide. And there's no way to change my vote sadly.

 

[The Endless]

I'm still thinking around 500 mill. That'd be a pretty good success really.

 

[Gr0oT]

That would be an amazing success.
I'm being extremely optimistic with my 600 million dollar prediction.
Let Forbes put the significance of the August release date in perspective for us in the article they released following the trailer.

Even aside from the relatively unknown subject matter and offbeat material, it’s the riskiest release date thus far.

Unlike even the first Thor, it takes entirely in outer space and doesn’t have the security of being summer’s first big film.

It opens on August 1st, for goodness sake, which means if it crosses even $500 million worldwide it will be the second August film in history to do so (behind The Sixth Sense at $672 million and ahead of Rise of the Planet of the Apes at $480 million).

This is clearly a case of Marvel Studios basically saying “We can do this completely off-the-reservation project because we’ve earned our audiences’ goodwill and their trust”.

Trailer Talk

 

[Spider-Vader]

If this movie is as good as it looks, I think it'll do Iron Man 1 numbers.

 

[flickchick85]

Right now, based on the 1st trailer, I'm gonna say:

Opening Weekend: $75M
Domestic: $190M
Worldwide: $420M

 

[psylockolussus]

Based on the 1st trailer

Opening Weekend: $35 million
Domestic: $100 million
Worldwide: $290 million

If Star Trek 2009 couldn't even get $400 million worldwide and it was released in May. I don't see this film making more than that with the August release date. Last year, blockbuster fatigue happened in late July, there's also competition from Ninja Turtles and the trailer is not really that appealing. Right now, the only thing really going for the movie is the *Marvel* brand but I don't think it would do much work especially the lead characters of GOTG has yet to appear in an Avengers movie.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

GotG is not going to make less then the Wolverine did in the same time frame. I am positive of this. Not with Marvel's name attached. Not with Rocket. The OS markets are going to eat up the space ships and talking animals.

 

[CyclopsWasRight]

I predict around $500 million.

 

[Bullseye1]

$300-$375m total world wide box office.

 

[Keyser Soze]

Based on the 1st trailer

Opening Weekend: $35 million
Domestic: $100 million
Worldwide: $290 million

If Star Trek 2009 couldn't even get $400 million worldwide and it was released in May. I don't see this film making more than that with the August release date. Last year, blockbuster fatigue happened in late July, there's also competition from Ninja Turtles and the trailer is not really that appealing. Right now, the only thing really going for the movie is the *Marvel* brand but I don't think it would do much work especially the lead characters of GOTG has yet to appear in an Avengers movie.

That's a pretty subjective response to the trailer though. Even setting aside your response to the trailer or my response, generally the response has been overwhelmingly positive, with articles being written about what a social media success it was, and that Forbes article bumping up its estimations for the film's box office success based on the positive buzz.

 

[Keyser Soze]

The Forbes article was interesting. I wasn't aware it was so rare for an August film to make over $500 million. So it'd be crazy if Guardians of the Galaxy were to pull it off. The only chance it has if it is truly excellent, generating enough good word of mouth to make it a "you gotta see this" pop culture event, really give it some legs.