Guardians of the Galaxy Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

[metaphysician]

Honestly, I suspect that no level of success will keep the naysayers from coming up with *some* way to justify themselves. Even if it is a smash hit, they will just say "of course it was, the movie was the safest thing ever!"

 

[psylockolussus]

So when this film blows up in the box office as some think it will, how far back are the goalposts going to get moved back by the naysayers this time around to rationalize its success?

I wouldn't be doing that if the film ended up as $ma$h hit.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

For this, if it manages to net $75mil+ I think it'll be a gamechanger for Marvel, that not only can they create franchises more so than any other studio besides Pixar or Disney, but they can lengthen the so-called "summer movie season" from April to August and make both viable blockbuster producing months.

(Although I think Marvel Studios are a game-changer already LOL!)

The summer scheduled starting in April goes back to the Fast franchise, not Marvel.

I wouldn't be doing that if the film ended up as $ma$h hit.

No, but I can already tell your reasoning will be hilarious. You have been playing down this film's potential quite a bit.

 

[psylockolussus]

The summer scheduled starting in April goes back to the Fast franchise, not Marvel.


No, but I can already tell your reasoning will be hilarious. You have been playing down this film's potential quite a bit.

And obviously you care about what I have to say since it seems you always have a reaction to my posts.

 

[TeeKay]

Let's see if this movie breaks the opening weekend record the same way Cap did in April.

 

[Flint Marko]

I wouldn't be doing that if the film ended up as $ma$h hit.

What would you qualify as a smash hit exactly?
Keep in mind this is a space opera that features a raccoon with a gun and a talking tree. Not exactly an easy sell to a lot of people.
The way I see it, anything over $400 million worldwide is an undeniable success. I see in the poll you've voted that this will make 200+ million; you do see why that is a ridiculous prediction, correct? Have you changed your mind on that yet?

 

[psylockolussus]

I submitted my vote like last year. I also posted my revised predictions last month. But whatevs I wasnt the only user who voted for 200 million.

 

[The Endless]

It'll probably make 200 million in the first week of release.

 

[Son of Coul]

I haven't voted yet, but now I'll say 500m+. I'll take that extra leap while onboard the hype train. We could always be surprised, a la Avengers.

 

[TeeKay]

I'm actually surprised there are people who voted 200 million.

 

[Son of Coul]

Isuldir's Heir voted under 200m, what a shock.

 

[psylockolussus]

What would you qualify as a smash hit exactly?

Something like what X-Men got this year, highest grossing comic book film of the year worldwide. Personally I consider its success as an iconic $ma$h hit. If it outgrosses Dofp then its a smash hit for me. The competition this summer is not that high these past few weeks so who knows. The lack of big films might help it just like how it helped the other MCU film this year.

 

[TeeKay]

It doesn't need to out gross DOFP to be considered a 'smash hit'.

 

[psylockolussus]

I'm speaking for myself.

 

[Flint Marko]

Something like what X-Men got this year, highest grossing comic book film of the year worldwide. Personally I consider its success as an iconic $ma$h hit. If it outgrosses Dofp then its a smash hit for me. The competition this summer is not that high these past few weeks so who knows. The lack of big films might help it just like the other MCU film this year.

...Are you serious? I don't even know where to begin with why that's absolutely ridiculous.
So what you're saying is that unless it grosses what DOFP (it won't) you're going to label it a failure in some regard?

 

[The Endless]

Your bias is so blatant lol.

 

[8ulk]

I think Guardians OTG Can open at 200+ Worldwide.
Why woudlnt it ? it has a lock for 70mil Domestically. My guess is that it will do 130 OS.

Here are some fun facts about previous superhero movie WW openings

(These are the actual numbers for WW opening weekends which come from adding up numbers from each countries OW since not a single movie opens at the same weekend worldwide)

2014 Superhero Movies Worldwide Opening Weekends

XMEN DOFP = 267 mil (not counting the 4th day of memorial day only 3day for US)
TASM2 = 264 mil
CAP2 TWS = 235 mil

 

[psylockolussus]

...Are you serious? I don't even know where to begin with why that's absolutely ridiculous.
So what you're saying is that unless it grosses what DOFP (it won't) you're going to label it a failure in some regard?

If it gets 400 million then its a hit not just a $ma$h hit.

Dathskywalker doesnt even want me to call Dofp's success a smash hit then I should consider 400 million for Gotg a $ma$h hit? Umm no. Again its just my words and opinion.

 

[Flint Marko]

Your bias is so blatant lol.

It's like he's not even trying to hide it.
It's cool that he likes the X-men films, I do as well, but downplaying the potential success of this movie is pretty childish and doesn't accomplish anything.

 

[psylockolussus]

Your bias is so blatant lol.

Dont say that to Flink Marko thats not nice.

 

[The Endless]

You have to take into account the circumstances. X-Men is an established franchise. Sure it's had it's ups and downs, but people know those characters and that world. It was also released in the height of the summer season.

GotG isn't an established franchise. It's a wacky space opera with a talking tree and a gun toting raccoon. It's also released in August, which never has mega hits.

That said DoFP did very well at the box office. 730 million is a great number. But GotG shouldn't be expected to make that amount. I'd say 500 million would be a massive success for this film.

 

[psylockolussus]

It's like he's not even trying to hide it.
It's cool that he likes the X-men films, I do as well, but downplaying the potential success of this movie is pretty childish and doesn't accomplish anything.

How am I downplaying its success? You asked me what I consider as a $ma$h hit, I gave you an answer.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Im going to give you some credit and assume you are being intentionally obtuse. Though I do appreciate you making your bias so "blatant". Subtle bias is much more irritating.

 

[Suzanne78]

Something like what X-Men got this year, highest grossing comic book film of the year worldwide. Personally I consider its success as an iconic $ma$h hit. If it outgrosses Dofp then its a smash hit for me. The competition this summer is not that high these past few weeks so who knows. The lack of big films might help it just like how it helped the other MCU film this year.

Then I think you are setting yourself up to be underwhelmed.

DoFP is the seventh movie in a franchise that's been around since 2000. The X-Men are one of Marvel's signature IPs (the comics). It's coming off a highly acclaimed but modestly grossing reboot and it's also riding the international surge of popularity of comic book franchises.

The expectations for GOTG should be very different. It's not obviously connected to the larger MCU (which is likely responsible in part for the big box office returns for CBMs at the int'l box office), but it is basically the start of a new franchise for Marvel for an obscure property that sells nowhere near the number of X books. Plus, this movie's opening in August, a time with traditionally soft box office. X-Men opened at the start of blockbuster season. The expectation in numbers is very, very different.

Just saying.

 

[psylockolussus]

I'm not bias, I'm just being honest.