Guardians of the Galaxy Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

[metaphysician]

What are the chances of Ninja Turtles taking a sizable chunk of the this movie's audience?

I'd personally be ecstatic if this grossed more than half a billion worldwide.

Its what worries me, too. I guess it depends on whether it captures the nostalgia crowd like the Transformers movies do.

 

[CyclopsWasRight]

I've been thinking this.

Turtles might even beat Guardians of the Galaxy. It's not about fanboys, it's about what kids would rather see. The family audience. I think people are overestimating GOTG and even if it does well will be seen a disappointment because expectations are too high.

60 M is as high as it'll go for opening weekend. Turtles too.

I think GOTG will do really well, maybe even beat Turtles but I can see people possibly being disappointed as it gets more and more overhyped

 

[Suzanne78]

As what's overhyped? Turtles or GOTG?

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I think a strong element is less "soccer team" and more "I want to be taken seriously!" Its not that the DC fans intrinsically like DC better necessarily; for a lot of them, its just a side effect of Nolan doing "serious movies about serious matters", which plays into the strain of fandom that is still desperate to have its fandom validated. Same line of thought that leads to throwing in random death as a way to look "mature".

The funny thing about that is, Thor 2 had a death of someone close to the main character but it didn't really make the movie "mature" or "serious". That line of thought doesn't make sense to me.

 

[The Endless]

Expectations are too high? Most people are predicting around 400-500 million world wide. I think people are keeping expectations in check pretty well.

 

[Rock Sexton]

The funny thing about that is, Thor 2 had a death of someone close to the main character but it didn't really make the movie "mature" or "serious". That line of thought doesn't make sense to me.

The death of Frigga was anything, but random. They paid a large amount of respect to how they treated it.

Random deaths are like what happened in DOFP. People who show up for two seconds just to die.

 

[Axelrod]

This movie will have serious legs but it won't beat out TMNT. That nostalgia audience is not to be played with. They will come out in droves to see that movie good or bad.

 

[kedrell]

I think it'll beat TMNT. On another note, I've live for this to make it to $624M WW which would both give the 10 MCU films collectively a $7B gross WW and continue the trend of every phase 2 film out grossing every stand alone film from phase 1.

 

[Axelrod]

I think it will definitely beat out TMNT overall domestically and internationally but opening weekend for TMNT will smash everything. I'll be seeing it Tuesday to see if my predication is true.

 

[Rock Sexton]

I think it will definitely beat out TMNT overall domestically and internationally but opening weekend for TMNT will smash everything. I'll be seeing it Tuesday to see if my predication is true.

Ok we get it. You like TMNT.

 

[Axelrod]

Ok we get it. You like TMNT.

Lmao. I doubt it will better than GOTG cause its a special movie , I'm just stating how the general audience usually gravitated to more familiar/nostalgic properties. We can't underestimate that. Hell, look at the transformers franchise, each movie got progressively worse yet the box office has been magnificent.

 

[kedrell]

I agree that it's unlikely for GOTG to hold the #1 spot for more than 1 weekend. In a sense it's getting the CA:TFA treatment. But I'll not be surprised if come TMNT's 2nd weekend GOTG places above it even though neither will be #1 since that'll be Expendables 3.

 

[Rock Sexton]

Lmao. I doubt it will better than GOTG cause its a special movie , I'm just stating how the general audience usually gravitated to more familiar/nostalgic properties. We can't underestimate that. Hell, look at the transformers franchise, each movie got progressively worse yet the box office has been magnificent.

Did the GA migrate to it back in 2007? No. That opened with a $24 million weekend.

Now granted this movie will be live-action, but there is no way in hell that movie does anything close to a Transformers opening weekend.

 

[kedrell]

Yeah, I'd say $50M OW would be the upper limit for the TMNT movie. Probably will be in the $40M's.

 

[Flint Marko]

I don't see TMNT having strong legs at all. It's going to come out, the people who want to see it will, and then there will be a pretty sizable drop-off as word of mouth won't be solid enough to sway most people to see it in it's second weekend. Obviously this is all conjecture on my part but that's a safe bet as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Axelrod]

Lemme put it like this : GOTG is so good that I think 75% of the winter soldier and DOFP audience will see the movie TWICE opening weekend.

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

The movie opening date in Holland is 14 August...

What is this sorcery?!?

 

[Flint Marko]

Lemme put it like this : GOTG is so good that I think 75% of the winter soldier and DOFP audience will see the movie TWICE opening weekend.

That is quite the prediction haha. I'm excited to hear you liked it that much! This is gonna be a loooong week.

 

[TeeKay]

The movie opening date in Holland is 14 August...

What is this sorcery?!?

Hydra.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

It will be difficult for GotG's 2nd weekend to beat TMNT OW but it's not impossible.

 

[Flint Marko]

It will be difficult for GotG's 2nd weekend to beat TMNT OW but it's not impossible.

Not impossible but I wouldn't put any money on it. It'd be pretty nice though.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

TMNT has never opened up higher than 25 million, even at its peak. Even with an average opening and second weekend drop, I doubt GOTG is going to drop that low.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

TMNT has never opened up higher than 25 million, even at its peak. Even with an average opening and second weekend drop, I doubt GOTG is going to drop that low.

25 million way back in 1990 is around 46 million today.

But that was at the peak of "turtle-mania".

 

[Saitou Hajime]

25 million way back in 1990 is around 46 million today.

But that was at the peak of "turtle-mania".

The 2007 film opened at around 24 million, and that's with an animated series that's been on for about four years by that point, and would go on for two more years afterwards.

Like I said, with GOTG's WOM TMNT would have to be really, REALLY good in order to branch out enough beyond their core fan base to dent the former.

 

[stlblues84]

Let's put it this way...I, at one point, was the nerdiest of all the TMNT fans...action figures, dressed up as a turtle for Halloween, own all the movies on VHS and DVD...I'm more excited for Guardians than I am TMNT.