Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread

[Silver Surfer]

21.6 mil ouch....man this movie is in for a rough ride. I though with Cars 2 and TF coming out soon that it could make some ground early but It will barely reach 55 mil it's opening weekend. No way this movie reaches 150 mil domestic, prolly not even 300 mill WW.

 

[solidsnake86]

Batman Begins made 373M. If this makes 373M we can talk sequel (even though this movie cost more than BB, which is why I just said "talk" )

The Dark Knight was an anomaly with the amount of money it made. Batman Begins got lucky with the fact it cost 150 to make. With GL though the original budget for production was 180 (I remember reading this) plus they got tax breaks. Then WB gave another 9 million. Unless those tax breaks were really generous and this movie makes over 150 I don't think we'll be seeing a sequel. Too many negative reviews, even if the sequel improved people don't forget.

 

[KalMart]

The Dark Knight was an anomaly with the amount of money it made. Batman Begins got lucky with the fact it cost 150 to make. With GL though the original budget for production was 180 (I remember reading this) plus they got tax breaks. Then WB gave another 9 million. Unless those tax breaks were really generous and this movie makes over 150 I don't think we'll be seeing a sequel. Too many negative reviews, even if the sequel improved people don't forget.

Plus...the sequel could end up costing much more than GL if they want more than 15-20 minutes with all the other lanterns and big space battles, etc. Not the most comforting of prospects if your $180M movie with very little space-battle stuff only gets you mid-100Ms.

 

[solidsnake86]

Plus...the sequel could end up costing much more than GL if they want more than 15-20 minutes with all the other lanterns and big space battles, etc. Not the most comforting of prospects if your $180M movie with very little space-battle stuff only gets you mid-100Ms.

The only reason it would, and this is a long shot, is because they have invested so much money in trying to build a franchise that they could somehow turn a profit with a sequel, but I doubt that.

One thing I always found interesting with TDK is that when you look at the merchandise for the film before it came it, it had a lot less stuff than batman begins, kinda makes you think that they just didnt expect it. I mean they cancelled the video game (yes movie games suck) but had they known it was going to make that money that probably would have never happened. They didn't have an official guide etc.

Green Lantern has such a large amount of stuff. I mean were toys of half the corps members really necessary when they were barely shown, on top of that do people actually care about buying that stuff. Will be tense weeks for DC but someone is going to be losing there job.

 

[Marvin]

Plus...the sequel could end up costing much more than GL if they want more than 15-20 minutes with all the other lanterns and big space battles, etc. Not the most comforting of prospects if your $180M movie with very little space-battle stuff only gets you mid-100Ms.

a good chunk of effects budgets goes to asset building/modeling, that's usually why franchises don't hop effects houses till the reboot.

designing all those lanterns that were never used could come in handy for a sequel. Animating them may cost though.

Batman begins made $48 in it's first weekend then then $27 and then $15.
GL can do these types of numbers imo. And this will be a hot ticket come blu-ray extras season.

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=batmanbegins.htm

 

[Chewy]

Batman Begins opened on a Wednesday. It opened much larger than GL.

 

[Marvin]

Batman Begins opened on a Wednesday. It opened much larger than GL.

if gl opened on a wednesday. do you think it would hit the 70mill begins did? cause it appears to be reaching for 60 in 3

 

[Spider-Fan]

if gl opened on a wednesday. do you think it would hit the 70mill begins did? cause it appears to be reaching for 60 in 3

70 mil when BB came out was worth more than GL's 60 will be. GL gets the 3D boost BB didn't get. I won't factor inflation (cause BB's budget would also go up if comparing inflation). But, the 3D boost is big.

I want the film to succeed, too. Don't take me pointing this out as hating. Like I said earlier, I didn't feel like the film was nearly as bad as people make it out to be (though it is very flawed). I'm just being realistic on its BO #'s.

 

[Chewy]

I doubt it. It probably would have done the same, just over 5 days instead of 3.

 

[Mysteryman]

if gl opened on a wednesday. do you think it would hit the 70mill begins did? cause it appears to be reaching for 60 in 3

BB might have done tha too if it had 3D to back it up .

 

[DieSmiling]

You need to make at least double your money spent to make a profit in film. GL ain't doing that.

You don't really know that.

 

[Karelia]

How much has it made so far?

 

[KalMart]

a good chunk of effects budgets goes to asset building/modeling, that's usually why franchises don't hop effects houses till the reboot.

designing all those lanterns that were never used could come in handy for a sequel. Animating them may cost though.

The compositing/rendering alone will be huge. Just all that time to build new shots and sequences for at least twice as much screentime as before....major $$.

The other problem is...like when the report of the extra $$ put into effects.....they'll have more effects to do, but they'll most likely again be rushed to make trailers, marketing, 3D, and so on. The bottleneck in post that happened on this one could be even worse on the next....especially if the emphasis is on making up for the first and really hitting it out of the park with this one. Any way you look at it, they're going to be spending more time and money than they already spent (and how) on this one. So something's really gotta' make it worth it with this first one.

Batman begins made $48 in it's first weekend then then $27 and then $15.
GL can do these types of numbers imo. And this will be a hot ticket come blu-ray extras season.

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=batmanbegins.htm

I think it'll have to show quite a life on DVD/BluRay to secure a sequel....like, the #1 seller for a while. If they release it during the holiday season, that coudl also help.

 

[mr jinx]

Even though it doesn't affect box office, GL has to be racking up ancillary sales on things like toys that also make it a lucrative property. Maybe thats how they justified a massive marketing campaign. Think about it. GI Joe only had a modest box office, but probably did pretty well at pushing toys. On the extreme end of things, the box office for Cars was a mere fraction of the billions of dollars the Cars name has earned. Hence, sequel.

 

[terry78]

****, I'm eating a bag of Doritos with the GL on it as we speak. It ain't like they won't get any cash out of the deal.

 

[KalMart]

The only reason it would, and this is a long shot, is because they have invested so much money in trying to build a franchise that they could somehow turn a profit with a sequel, but I doubt that.

One thing I always found interesting with TDK is that when you look at the merchandise for the film before it came it, it had a lot less stuff than batman begins, kinda makes you think that they just didnt expect it. I mean they cancelled the video game (yes movie games suck) but had they known it was going to make that money that probably would have never happened. They didn't have an official guide etc.

Green Lantern has such a large amount of stuff. I mean were toys of half the corps members really necessary when they were barely shown, on top of that do people actually care about buying that stuff. Will be tense weeks for DC but someone is going to be losing there job.

On the other hand..they might just look at it as a shaky first step for them towards what they still hope is a stronger overall presence with DCE, and several other characters. A part of a much bigger plan, but not the only torchbearer, so to speak. If TDKR and MOS do really well, then the collective whole will still be strong, so they may want to keep going.

 

[DieSmiling]

Even though it doesn't affect box office, GL has to be racking up ancillary sales on things like toys that also make it a lucrative property. Maybe thats how they justified a massive marketing campaign. Think about it. GI Joe only had a modest box office, but probably did pretty well at pushing toys. On the extreme end of things, the box office for Cars was a mere fraction of the billions of dollars the Cars name has earned. Hence, sequel.

Exactly. People are underestimating this.

I'm not saying the movie will get a sequel, just that it's not out of the realm of possibility even if the film underperforms (looking likely).

 

[Chewy]

There are a lot of GL toys but I'm not sure if they're necessarily selling well. I always see a huge mound of them when I go into Wal-Mart.

 

[DieSmiling]

There are a lot of GL toys but I'm not sure if they're necessarily selling well. I always see a huge mound of them when I go into Wal-Mart.

The movie came out yesterday dude.

95 percent of Toys 'R' Us sales come in November and December. We won't know how well the toys have sold for like another year... The key is the movie being exposed to kids who want to be GL for halloween, want toys for Xmas, etc.

 

[Chewy]

The movie came out yesterday dude.

95 percent of Toys 'R' Us sales come in November and December. We won't know how well the toys have sold for like another year... The key is the movie being exposed to kids who want to be GL for halloween, want toys for Xmas, etc.

Yeah but there will be newer toys for stores to stock. I don't know the specifics of toys but I can't imagine their shelf-life is 6 months.

GI Joe toys and Transformers toys sell year round, I know that much.

 

[terry78]

Most of these movies should be so lucky to have merchandising tenure like Cars does. That **** still sells well since 2006.

 

[mr jinx]

The movie came out yesterday dude.

95 percent of Toys 'R' Us sales come in November and December. We won't know how well the toys have sold for like another year... The key is the movie being exposed to kids who want to be GL for halloween, want toys for Xmas, etc.

Those Hulk hands that sold so well were a driver for the Incredible Hulk to get made even after Hulks lackluster performance.

 

[Sith Scotti]

Now yes legs will be a determing factor but a 60 million opening weekend is on par with every other superhero film this year , so calling it a bomb because its based on this weekend is lame . If it drops 80 percent next weekend than we can call it a bomb .


The wb spent too much money marketing the film and picked a piss poor release date , so there are many factors going against it , but this weekend showed there was at least some interest in Green Lantern to warrant future films imo

 

[mr jinx]

Best case, a solid opening indicates to WB that GL could be a solid franchise. Low overall performance indicates they need to do a better job.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Now yes legs will be a determing factor but a 60 million opening weekend is on par with every other superhero film this year , so calling it a bomb because its based on this weekend is lame . If it drops 80 percent next weekend than we can call it a bomb .


The wb spent too much money marketing the film and picked a piss poor release date , so there are many factors going against it , but this weekend showed there was at least some interest in Green Lantern to warrant future films imo

On par with XFC and Thor, yes. But, it was also more expensive and had more spent on marketing it than either XFC and Thor did. That is part of what makes the opening in this case lackluster. Now, if it obtains legs, then that will overcome the opening a bit. But, films with bad reviews tend to have bad legs. Doesn't mean it always happens, but it is common. I think this is a movie that will need DVD sales to warrant a sequel.