James Cameron's "Avatar" Thread v.3

[MessiahDecoy123]

How much will this thing make:

opening weekend?

Final domestic gross?

Final worldwide gross?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

opening weekend = 75 million

domestic gross = 250 million

worldwide gross = 700 million

 

[Aesop Rocks]

Other than the fanboys, I don't know anyone that wants to see this movie.

 

[dark_b]

Other than the fanboys, I don't know anyone that wants to see this movie.

you really think that 10 days before the premiere only Cameron fanboys want to watch this movie? or Avatar fans based on the trailers?

 

[Aesop Rocks]

lolwhat?

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Other than the fanboys, I don't know anyone that wants to see this movie.

Ditto.

Yes there is an awareness of Avatar. But it isn't "I must see this now!" That category belongs to Sherlock Holmes which will kick its ass the following week. The consensus from the general public is "Oh that blue people movie?" followed by "That looks stupid!"

 

[xmangambit]

I know so many people who don't watch films who are going to see this, I was surprised by the amount of people at my workplace who don't like things like hero films that were actually talking about this! Film is going to be big!

I say over 2 Billion for sure!

 

[Nivek]

LOL! I know a lot of people who want to see it, especially because it's supposed to be a visual and audio "experience". But I don't know any "blue people" hater cheerleaders off the board either, so I guess that makes a difference as well.

 

[Aesop Rocks]

I did a test.

I tested friends/fanboys of Avatar

And friends/GA

Fanboys "OMG!!!11".
GA "This looks stupid".

I tested my dad and he said "This is from the guy that made Aliens?".

 

[Nivek]

I did a test too...

I asked someone who has been ragging on Avatar for months and he said "Teh suck! It's gonna Bomb"

Then I asked some guy on the street and he said "The Jim Cameron movie? I'll check it out".

Funny how that works. Apparently, the trailer doesn't make the lame walk and blind see either, but despite no one anticipating the movie saying anything like that, the haters still say thats what the "Cameron Fanboys" are claiming.

It's all quite silly...

 

[C. Lee]

It's all quite silly...

Just another day at the Hype.

 

[matrix_ghost]

I said this in the avatar thread .
Many of my friends are couples of the age of 35-40. Alot of them are parents as well. They're definately interested in checking out avatar because of the latest 3-d boom. There's have been loads of 3-d movies coming out and they have definatly enjoyed the experience whether it was Ice Age 3/Monsters vs Aliens or slasher flicks like My Bloody Valentine / Final Destination 4.
I explained to them that Avatar will definately be better then any of those movies , at least visually. And they're definately looking foreard to watching Avatar.

However this one of those movies where i'm really not sure how things will go. Fox has been promoting this movie like crazy lately and hopefully with good WOM people will be coming back . It has the advantge of playing in 3-d and IMAX theaters. IMAX is a definate plus because it'll play for 3 months. These days most IMAX released are shown for a month max.

My prediction
OW : 75-80 million
Domestic : 250-300 million
WW : 600-700 million

 

[AnorexicBatman]

It's just eye candy and special effects. The plot & characters don't look anything special.
Maybe I'm wrong!

 

[matrix_ghost]

Sometimes you don't need an script that it full of depth to enjoy it but rather good performances from actors. That certainly was the case with The Abyss.

 

[Showtime]

What really matters for a film, is the domestic take, that is what we should be looking at here.

 

[matrix_ghost]

What really matters for a film, is the domestic take, that is what we should be looking at here.

If you're talking about sequels yes. Otherwise i don't think that matters alot.
That definately the case with 2012 . You think Sony is worried about them not hitting 200 million at the US BO when they've made 600 million WW.

However the US is definately the market with the biggest number of IMAX/3-d screen so it'll be interesting to see how Avatar will fare there.
And Cameron has said that there could be a Avatar 2 & 3 if the first movie is a success so they'll definately keep an eye on the domestic take. But with such a massive budget as well as the marketing costs , i think that every penny will matter whether yo're talking about the domestic or foreign markets

 

[dark_b]

3D tickets are the only way to make a profit. budget is just way to high.


dont you all dare telling me that a movie that was in the making for 4 years and has so many details has a budget under 300.

 

[dark_b]

The consensus from the general public is "Oh that blue people movie?" followed by "That looks stupid!"

when they will see this they will change their mind.



who doesnt want to see 10 feet blue aliens kicking human ''ass'' ?
ohhhh yeah

 

[C. Lee]

who doesnt want to see 10 feet blue aliens kicking human ''ass'' ?
ohhhh yeah

If it makes it so that I can see 10 foot tall four armed green Barsoomians...I'll be happy.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

when they will see this they will change their mind.

who doesnt want to see 10 feet blue aliens kicking human ''ass'' ?
ohhhh yeah

Sorry, bud. John and Jane Doe Movie Goer aren't going to say, "Well that still they just released does look cool" and see the movie based on that.

 

[matrix_ghost]

3D tickets are the only way to make a profit. budget is just way to high.


dont you all dare telling me that a movie that was in the making for 4 years and has so many details has a budget under 300.

This i don't agree with.
If that were the case , Fox wouldn't have companies like LG , McDonalds , Coca Cola etc promoting avatar. Those tie in deals are worth millions.
Look at the Bond movies. They're expensive as hell but the deals with other companies alone are worth around 100-150 million.

Marketsaw may have their info wrong or incomplete on some occasions howver i find one of their articles a good read. Scroll down
http://marketsaw.blogspot.com/searc...-max=2009-11-19T22:34:00-04:00&max-results=20

 

[Nivek]

Um, if it's in some entertainment rag like EW, yes they will.

Hell, look at the people who seen lord of the Rings because it looked cool.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Sorry. Doesn't work that way. Still images don't sell a movie to people. Trailers do and the overall reception to Avatar's trailers has been, "That looks dumb." Every time I've seen either trailer in front of a movie the audience didn't make a peep. On the other hand, Sherlock Holmes and It's Complicated brought the house down.

 

[dark_b]

This i don't agree with.
If that were the case , Fox wouldn't have companies like LG , McDonalds , Coca Cola etc promoting avatar. Those tie in deals are worth millions.
Look at the Bond movies. They're expensive as hell but the deals with other companies alone are worth around 100-150 million.

Marketsaw may have their info wrong or incomplete on some occasions howver i find one of their articles a good read. Scroll down
http://marketsaw.blogspot.com/searc...-max=2009-11-19T22:34:00-04:00&max-results=20

i meant through the BO.
normal theaters are not enough because of the budget.look how much more money Ice Age 3 made because of 3D. Ice Age 3 was the biggest movie where i live only because of the 3D version.

i understand that some people belive articles about the budget. but people who worked on this movie (effects) said that its the most expensive movie ever.

 

[Nivek]

Trailers do and the overall reception to Avatar's trailers has been, "That looks dumb."

Yes, you and a couple others here have stated that (oft-heard by haters ) "it looks dumb" comment plenty of times already. However, myself and others have heard the direct opposite from much more people, and it's obviously quite anticipated here and in other forums as well.

We will find out how the GA feels about Avatar after it opens.