Justice League Justice League Box Office Prediction - Part 5

[iEquinox]

Official studio estimate for Wednesday:

Justice League grossed an estimated $10.45M on Wednesday. 6-Day total stands at $122.35M.

https://***********/BORReport/status/933717158244245504

If it follows Fantastic Beast(same release slot last year) after that, it would get:
5-day weekend: $62.7M
3-day weekend: $43.1M (54.1% drop)

If that happens, the optimistic scenario would be that it keeps following Fantastic Beasts' drops after that weekend (Fantastic Beasts had good legs so that definitely won't be easy an easy task)

If it does get these weekend numbers, and keeps following FB after that, it would end with a $249.2M final domestic total. But let's see how closely it can follow FB over the next few days first.

 

[PacificBoy]

Weren't the Snyders the Feige equivalent at the start of the 'filmmaker-driven' narrative?

 

[FunkMiller]

Official studio estimate for Wednesday:


If it follows Fantastic Beast(same release slot last year) after that, it would get:
5-day weekend: $62.7M
3-day weekend: $43.1M (54.1% drop)

If that happens, the optimistic scenario would be that it keeps following Fantastic Beasts' drops after that weekend (Fantastic Beasts had good legs so that definitely won't be easy an easy task)

If it does get these weekend numbers, and keeps following FB after that, it would end with a $249.1M final domestic total. But let's see how closely it can follow FB over the next few days first.

Just 1% of Tuesday then. That’s certainly a better first Wednesday drop than any of the other DCEU films, by some margin.

250 dom and 400 - 450 international, for a total 650 - 700 maybe, if we’re being optimistic?

...and JL makes in 6 days what Thor did in three!

 

[Mandon Knight]

Quick point of question (and I take on board both the size and complexity of what their job entails) but **ck me, box office mojo take their sweet merry time with their updates don't they ?

 

[Flemm]

Weren't the Snyders the Feige equivalent at the start of the 'filmmaker-driven' narrative?

Probably so, in a sense, but that changed after the reception of BvS, or so it was reported.

Johns and Berg stepped in to oversee the DC film projects. However, Wonder Woman had already wrapped, and Justice League started production almost immediately.

I think we can infer that the creative... errr... disagreement? ...over Justice League has to do with an awkward transition from the Snyders to Johns/Berg.

Snyder made his movie, and Johns/Berg did not like it. Maybe an over-simplification, but it is probably something like that.

 

[Mandon Knight]

Information concerning the film's opening in China...

Justice League topped China's box office last week with a solid $52.1 million opening - 30% more than Warner Bros. previous DCEU release Wonder Woman, but 10% shy of its 2016 hit Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, according to film consulting firm Artisan Gateway.

The box office haul helped pushed China's box office to a new milestone of $7.55 billion in ticket revenue, the Chinese government announced. That's a significant increase from 2016's $6.58 billion in ticket revenue, representing growth from last year's 3.7% to 15%.

 

[iEquinox]

Just 1% of Tuesday then. That’s certainly a better first Wednesday drop than any of the other DCEU films, by some margin.

250 dom and 400 - 450 international, for a total 650 - 700 maybe, if we’re being optimistic?

...and JL makes in 6 days what Thor did in three!

It's the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. Most movies increase on this day, so this small drop is not good.

That Wednesday number is already about $500k lower than Fantastic Beasts' first Wednesday despite Justice League's OW being bigger than FB by about $20M. So unless it shows good increases before the weekend is over(better than FB), $250M domestic seems out of reach.

 

[MbJ]

We've already seen movies fare well without China. Deadpool flipped the bird to the Chinese censors and right now it's looking like Justice League won't even touch his box office haul.

 

[InCali]

Quick point of question (and I take on board both the size and complexity of what their job entails) but *ck me, box office mojo take their sweet merry time with their updates don't they ?

Yeah. I find that really annoying and end up at Box Office Theory most of the time.

Does anyone know the real story about Ray? Things went downhill (esp at first) after he left. He wasn't saying much then.

 

[Mandon Knight]

All I'm after is a running 'current' international amount, (non USA) amount, anyone have any news pls....

 

[FunkMiller]

It's the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. Most movies increase on this day, so this small drop is not good.

That Wednesday number is already about $500k lower than Fantastic Beasts' first Wednesday despite Justice League's OW being bigger than FB by about $20M. So unless it shows good increases before the weekend is over(better than FB), $250M domestic seems out of reach.

 

[Iceman]

Official studio estimate for Wednesday:

https://***********/BORReport/status/933717158244245504

If it follows Fantastic Beast(same release slot last year) after that, it would get:
5-day weekend: $62.7M
3-day weekend: $43.1M (54.1% drop)

If that happens, the optimistic scenario would be that it keeps following Fantastic Beasts' drops after that weekend (Fantastic Beasts had good legs so that definitely won't be easy an easy task)

If it does get these weekend numbers, and keeps following FB after that, it would end with a $249.2M final domestic total. But let's see how closely it can follow FB over the next few days first.

That would be good and sounds like best case scenario.

 

[InCali]

So far these guys haven’t done anything apart from be rash and make big course corrections but hopefully that will change, certainly needs to.

Dude, you've already got 1200 more posts since you hit 100K. Are there like frelling 5 of you? t:

 

[RoryTate]

Follows the other grand plans WB had...like letting a Trailer company cut a big budget movie for example. t:

How anyone at WB who green-lit that decision still has a job is frankly beyond my comprehension. I guess it's less surprising in light of their other poor choices: sticking with Snyder after MOS didn't work, approving too much payoff far too early in BvS (Batman/Superman/WW teamup, death of Superman, Doomsday, Batman vs Superman, etc...I'd make a joke about throwing in everything and the kitchen sink, except I hear Superman did get struck with a sink in it), strong arming RT into hiding the score for JL, not learning from previous mistakes and not placing tighter controls on budgets and runtimes for movies early on in their development, and much much more.

So using a trailer company to edit a full movie, in a panicked reaction because they suddenly had a very well-received trailer? Well, to be fair, it's not the stupidest thing they've ever done.

 

[Mandon Knight]

Dude, you've already got 1200 more posts since you hit 100K. Are there like frelling 5 of you? t:

I fill in occasionally

 

[FunkMiller]

How anyone at WB who green-lit that decision still has a job is frankly beyond my comprehension. I guess it's less surprising in light of their other poor choices: sticking with Snyder after MOS didn't work, approving too much payoff far too early in BvS (Batman/Superman/WW teamup, death of Superman, Doomsday, Batman vs Superman, etc...I'd make a joke about throwing in everything and the kitchen sink, except I hear Superman did get struck with a sink in it), strong arming RT into hiding the score for JL, not learning from previous mistakes and not placing tighter controls on budgets and runtimes for movies early on in their development, and much much more.

So using a trailer company to edit a full movie, in a panicked reaction because they suddenly had a very well-received trailer? Well, to be fair, it's not the stupidest thing they've ever done.

WB Office spy cam:

 

[gerrym51]

Information concerning the film's opening in China...

Justice League topped China's box office last week with a solid $52.1 million opening - 30% more than Warner Bros. previous DCEU release Wonder Woman, but 10% shy of its 2016 hit Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, according to film consulting firm Artisan Gateway.

The box office haul helped pushed China's box office to a new milestone of $7.55 billion in ticket revenue, the Chinese government announced. That's a significant increase from 2016's $6.58 billion in ticket revenue, representing growth from last year's 3.7% to 15%.

I'm hoping JL reaches 100 million because neither BvS or WW did.

 

[Flemm]

WW actually had pretty good legs in China, ending up at 90M, after opening at 37M.

BvS opened at 55M, ending at 95M.

Not sure what will happen with JL. It could get to 100M, I guess, if it has better legs than BvS.

 

[GreenKToo]

Perhaps a solo Batman film with affleck would have been best after MoS.
Villain, either killer croc or riddler.
You could have had a Clark cameo with him investigating the Bat.
They finally meet at the end, sitting up a world's finest instead of a Vs film.

WF - Lex, metallo, joker, Batman and superman.
WW cameos at the end warning about Darkseid coming, sets up a two parter JL film.

 

[RoryTate]

Feige seems to basically combine the comics expertise with the producer expertise, so that is a big advantage.

If reproducing Marvel's success only required that a company mimic the strengths of Kevin Feige as a businessman/fan/etc, I think everyone would have done it by now. The truth seems to be more about Marvel's people and the workplace culture, which -- while probably not a perfect place to work -- seems to at least be one of accountability and honest communication. When Marvel makes mistakes (and they have with significant parts of IM2, TDW, and other movies), they own up to them, accept the evidence of what worked and didn't, and grow more experienced and talented as a result. And they're not scared to cut ties with people who perhaps don't quite fit into that kind of culture of personal growth.

WB just seems to be full of messy internal politics and people scared of losing their jobs who immediately blame failures on someone else.

 

[PacificBoy]

WW actually had pretty good legs in China, ending up at 90M, after opening at 37M.

BvS opened at 55M, ending at 95M.

Not sure what will happen with JL. It could get to 100M, I guess, if it has better legs than BvS.

Yep, WW was quite well received, as is JL mostly. SS2, if ever made, could benefit immensely from this increased brand recognition by being the jackpot earner.

 

[idiot09]

Weren't the Snyders the Feige equivalent at the start of the 'filmmaker-driven' narrative?

Not really, so I dont understand the "Snyder-era" thing. Geoff Johns is the Feige equivalent in DC, and he started from around spring 2016.So from then we were, and we are now in the "Geoff John's" era. Before that they were meant to be filmmaker driven, where every movie will have the unique voice of their director, while not overseen by a single man with a single voice. That's why BvS, SS and WW all have very different styles.Snyder's control extended to his own movies.

There was a braintrust in place, who made all the over-arching decisions long term to connect it all. It consisted of the Snyders, Roven, Geoff Johns and Jon Berg.

 

[JerseyJoker]

Justice League doesn't deserve to repeat at #1 this weekend, cause after seeing Coco last night, that movie is so well made and superior in every way in storytelling.

Like, at this point, i see it as JL eating away at Coco's box office for whatever it makes, cause that movie was splendid and storytelling perfection.

 

[Flemm]

If reproducing Marvel's success only required that a company mimic the strengths of Kevin Feige as a businessman/fan/etc, I think everyone would have done it by now. The truth seems to be more about Marvel's people and the workplace culture, which -- while probably not a perfect place to work -- seems to at least be one of accountability and honest communication. When Marvel makes mistakes (and they have with significant parts of IM2, TDW, and other movies), they own up to them, accept the evidence of what worked and didn't, and grow more experienced and talented as a result. And they're not scared to cut ties with people who perhaps don't quite fit into that kind of culture of personal growth.

WB just seems to be full of messy internal politics and people scared of losing their jobs who immediately blame failures on someone else.

That could be. I have no doubt that the overall culture of Marvel studios is important. They have really shaken up the usual formula.

However, some of the stuff you mention is pretty vague, almost like the kind of thing you might find on the human resources page of a random company website, or that your prospective employer might mention in a job interview. Positive buzzwords of workplace culture.

I think the combination of understanding the source material, having an overall vision of translating that material to the screen, and understanding how to implement that vision in practical terms... that has to be the core challenge, imho.

Granted, that is most likely not Feige *by himself*. But, by all accounts, he has taken the lead in creating that environment.

 

[Mandon Knight]

US domestic total estimate, inclusive of Weds....

Domestic Total as of Nov. 22, 2017: $122,351,643 (Estimate)