MCU Phase 2 Box Office/Budget Prediction Thread

[KangConquers]

Yes, since Avengers both characters have gathered huge fan bases.

Agreed. At the very least, both will break $200 M domestic (which to be fair, neither character was that far away from it in their first films) and $300 M foreign.

Right now I really like $650 WW for Thor, and $575 WW for Cap.

As for this whole Guardians vs Captain America argument, I'm a big big big fan of the Guardians of the Galaxy, but there's no way they're outgrossing Captain America post Avengers. GoTG will outgross Cap's first movie, but not TWS. I expect GoTG to land in the same range Thor's first film did, based on good will towards the MCU post Avengers.

Ant-Man I'm coming around to. After seeing the test footage, I can see a combination of good word of mouth and goodwill towards Marvel Studios (as well as being released six months after A2) driving Ant-Man towards a $350-375 M gross.

 

[kedrell]

Damn, I just wish I could go ahead in time to 2015 and see all of phase 2 right now. Like a kid wanting to sneak downstairs and open his presents before x-mas day actually arrives, I'm impatient.

 

[Drizzle]

I'd love that too, but I'm liking this release schedule. From now until 2015 (and probably beyond that), the longest wait between MCU films will be 9 months between GotG and Avengers 2.

 

[KangConquers]

I'm kind of excited to see how the MCU performs outside of May. So far only two MCU films have been released outside of that first week of May spot, and they were the two lowest grossing phase 1 movies.

 

[Drizzle]

I'm kind of excited to see how the MCU performs outside of May. So far only two MCU films have been released outside of that first week of May spot, and they were the two lowest grossing phase 1 movies.

Thor 2 should have a nice two week reign over the box office until The Hunger Games: Catching Fire hits. Cap 2 should do fine since it's coming out in April and shouldn't have any competition really. Guardians of the Galaxy, on the other hand, who knows what's going to happen there.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Thor 2 should have a nice two week reign over the box office until The Hunger Games: Catching Fire hits. Cap 2 should do fine since it's coming out in April and shouldn't have any competition really. Guardians of the Galaxy, on the other hand, who knows what's going to happen there.

I actually think Captain America has the potential to gross a lot more than people think. It's coming out at a time that's pretty clear of big blockbusters. It pretty much has a whole month to itself. I hope Thor can gain enough in the two week head start it has over THG: CF.

 

[darkslayer101]

I actually think Captain America has the potential to gross a lot more than people think. It's coming out at a time that's pretty clear of big blockbusters. It pretty much has a whole month to itself. I hope Thor can gain enough in the two week head start it has over THG: CF.

ya i thought it was rather smart to release it on April rather than May, where TASM2 can impede Caps performance.

 

[blalex620]

ya i thought it was rather smart to release it on April rather than May, where TASM2 can impede Caps performance.

If I remember correctly I heard Sony and Marvel have reached a deal about when they can release their movies. I think that's why Marvel allowed Sony to release TASM2 in May when they could have taken the slot

 

[spideymouse]

If I remember correctly I heard Sony and Marvel have reached a deal about when they can release their movies. I think that's why Marvel allowed Sony to release TASM2 in May when they could have taken the slot

I haven't heard anything like this. Do you have a link?

I think it's more of a game of chicken, mixed with a bit of first come, first served mentality between the studios when it comes to when they release their blockbuster movies.

 

[blalex620]

I haven't heard anything like this. Do you have a link?

I think it's more of a game of chicken, mixed with a bit of first come, first served mentality between the studios when it comes to when they release their blockbuster movies.

I might have been making an educated speculation seeing as Disney and Sony have come to agreements on the Spider-Man property. With Disney handling the toys and animated side while Sony continues to keep the film side.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Well IM3 is out now, so time to update predictions accordingly:

We're getting closer and closer to phase 2 so I'm wondering what everyone's predictions are for the movies' budgets and BO grosses are as a whole. Here's mine:

-IM3
Budget: 200M
Gross: 900M - 400M/500M OS

-Thor 2
Budget: 175M
Gross: 600M - 200M/400M OS

-Cap 2
Budget: 150M
Gross: 400M - 200M/200M OS

-GotG
Budget: 175M
Gross: 500M - 200M/300M OS

-A2
Budget: 250M
Gross: 1.6B - 700M/900M OS

-AM
Budget: 140M
Gross: *350M - 150M/200M OS

-Total
Budget: 1.09B
Gross: 4.4B

-Iron Man 3
Budget: $200m
Gross: $1.25b - $450m/$800m OS

-Thor: The Dark World
Budget: $175m
Gross: $900m - $350m/$550m OS

-Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Budget: $150m
Gross: $700m - $325m/$375m OS

-Guardians of the Galaxy
Budget: $150m
Gross: $625m - $275m/$350m OS

-Avengers 2
Budget: $250m
Gross: $2.1b - $700m/$1.4b OS

-Ant-Man (might as well count it)
Budget: $140m
Gross: $450m - $200m/$250m OS

-Total
Budget: $1.09b
Gross: $6.1b

 

[Mr. Dent]

For fun I decided to throw in the the non-Marvel Studios films too:

-The Wolverine
Budget: $140m
Gross: $400m - $200m/$200m

-The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Budget: $200m
Gross: $900m - $350m/$550m

-X-Men: Days of Future Past
Budget: $175m
Gross: $700m - $250m/$450m

-The Fantastic Four
Budget: $140m
Gross: $425m - $175m/$250m

Budget: $655m
Gross: $2.4b

Marvel movies all together:
Budget: $1.8b
Gross: $8.5b

 

[psylockolussus]

You seem very confident that all of Marvel's films will do great business, whether its Disney, Sony or FOX. I think at least 2 of them will disappoint.

And I think the budget of X-Men: Days of Future Past will definitely going to be higher than $175 million.

 

[Mr. Dent]

I was going to put it at $200m but I really don't think it needs it. I wouldn't be surprised at $200m though.

As for me being confident, well yeah, the Marvel brand is the hottest in Hollywood right now, even better than Pixar. I think even if a film from Marvel Studios were to disappoint the hype overall will be enough to carry them. GotG and Ant-Man are exceptions obviously, because they aren't as established as the other characters, but I feel both of those movies will be great.

As for non-Marvel Studios films, the Marvel brand still helps them, but I am assuming that all of them will be good. I have confidence in Josh Trank to deliver a good FF for the GA, I like what I'm seeing from TASM2 so far and bar the film being a total disaster I'd say it's guaranteed over $850m at least, considering TASM had the whole world working against it and it still made $750m. DOFP doing $700m is definitely a likely possibility, as I'm sure you'd agree. The one I think has the most potential for flopping is The Wolverine, but I have a feeling it will do decently.

 

[blalex620]

For fun I decided to throw in the the non-Marvel Studios films too:

-The Wolverine
Budget: $140m
Gross: $400m - $200m/$200m

-The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Budget: $200m
Gross: $900m - $350m/$550m

-X-Men: Days of Future Past
Budget: $175m
Gross: $700m - $250m/$450m

-The Fantastic Four
Budget: $140m
Gross: $425m - $175m/$250m

Budget: $655m
Gross: $2.4b

Marvel movies all together:
Budget: $1.8b
Gross: $8.5b

IM3 probably could have done numbers around your first prediction if word of mouth wasn't so mixed. With so many people split between loving and hating IM3, I honestly think it could affect the sales of the movie.

 

[psylockolussus]

I was going to put it at $200m but I really don't think it needs it. I wouldn't be surprised at $200m though.

As for me being confident, well yeah, the Marvel brand is the hottest in Hollywood right now, even better than Pixar. I think even if a film from Marvel Studios were to disappoint the hype overall will be enough to carry them. GotG and Ant-Man are exceptions obviously, because they aren't as established as the other characters, but I feel both of those movies will be great.

As for non-Marvel Studios films, the Marvel brand still helps them, but I am assuming that all of them will be good. I have confidence in Josh Trank to deliver a good FF for the GA, I like what I'm seeing from TASM2 so far and bar the film being a total disaster I'd say it's guaranteed over $850m at least, considering TASM had the whole world working against it and it still made $750m. DOFP doing $700m is definitely a likely possibility, as I'm sure you'd agree. The one I think has the most potential for flopping is The Wolverine, but I have a feeling it will do decently.

Fair enough. Though about DOFP's budget, the film has a big cast and most of them are returning from the original trilogy. And for the first time, there will be Sentinels and I just don't see it having a $175 million budget especially the budget for First Class was between $140 to $160 million.

 

[Mr. Dent]

IM3 probably could have done numbers around your first prediction if word of mouth wasn't so mixed. With so many people split between loving and hating IM3, I honestly think it could affect the sales of the movie.

Not sure what you mean. I readjusted my prediction to $1.2b from $900m. Also, $1.2b is basically a lock. With the average MCU multiplier of 2.7 the film will hit $477m and the film will hit $750m OS in the next two weeks, and has a very good chance of $800m OS when all is said and done as well.

Also, as far as the WOM being mixed...not really. The film got an 'A' Cinema Grade score, is at 79% on RT and 7.8 on IMDb. The WOM is good. Being controversial isn't the same as being bad or mixed.

Fair enough. Though about DOFP's budget, the film has a big cast and most of them are returning from the original trilogy. And for the first time, there will be Sentinels and I just don't see it having a $175 million budget especially the budget for First Class was between $140 to $160 million.

Big robots shouldn't bring the budget to $200m alone. I mean, look at Pacific Rim. I really doubt that has a $200m budget. Like I said though, I wouldn't be surprised. I'm just saying the budget will be $175-200m.

 

[metaphysician]

IM3 probably could have done numbers around your first prediction if word of mouth wasn't so mixed. With so many people split between loving and hating IM3, I honestly think it could affect the sales of the movie.

Have we seen *any* evidence of an *actual* mixed reaction by the general audience? Reminder: *we are not the general audience*. Dozens or hundreds of outraged fans do not matter a wit in actual results.

 

[blalex620]

Not sure what you mean. I readjusted my prediction to $1.2b from $900m. Also, $1.2b is basically a lock. With the average MCU multiplier of 2.7 the film will hit $477m and the film will hit $750m OS in the next two weeks, and has a very good chance of $800m OS when all is said and done as well.

Also, as far as the WOM being mixed...not really. The film got an 'A' Cinema Grade score, is at 79% on RT and 7.8 on IMDb. The WOM is good. Being controversial isn't the same as being bad or mixed.


Big robots shouldn't bring the budget to $200m alone. I mean, look at Pacific Rim. I really doubt that has a $200m budget. Like I said though, I wouldn't be surprised. I'm just saying the budget will be $175-200m.

I wouldn't say 1.2 bil is a lock. Not that I don't want it to make that much but I still don't see it doing that much but I could be wrong and only time will tell.

Have we seen *any* evidence of an *actual* mixed reaction by the general audience? Reminder: *we are not the general audience*. Dozens or hundreds of outraged fans do not matter a wit in actual results.

And as far as me saying word of mouth is mixed I'm going off of 1. people I've talked to who've seen the movie or heard from friends who've seen the movie and even they say they're hearing mixed things about it and 2. the whole internet is a buzz about this movie not just this forum. Like I said it's either you like it or you hate it and from the looks of things the audience is split about the movie. Of course I know the critics are loving it but come on we all know by now that's not the best indicator of if a movie is liked or not. Look at the Transformers franchise, critics panned it, audiences loved it.

 

[Mr. Dent]

It's basically a lock, like I said. I explained how. I'm not sure why you would say "I wouldn't say it's a lock" when I just explained why it is. You'll have to explain to me your reasoning. The legs would have to be as bad if not worse than IM2's for it to not hit $1.2b at this point, which is highly unlikely. The strong Saturday uptick from Friday and the Cinema Grade, RT scores, Metacritic, and IMDb shows WOM is very good. Your personal experiences and what you've read on "the internet" it's not a good bases for determining whether WOM is bad. Like I said, being controversial is different from being bad or mixed.

 

[blalex620]

It's basically a lock, like I said. I explained how. I'm not sure why you would say "I wouldn't say it's a lock" when I just explained why it is. You'll have to explain to me your reasoning. The legs would have to be as bad if not worse than IM2's for it to not hit $1.2b at this point, which is highly unlikely. The strong Saturday uptick from Friday and the Cinema Grade, RT scores, Metacritic, and IMDb shows WOM is very good. Your personal experiences and what you've read on "the internet" it's not a good bases for determining whether WOM is bad. Like I said, being controversial is different from being bad or mixed.

Well explain to me what "the average MCU multiplier of 2.7" is.

 

[Mr. Dent]

http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=25764385&postcount=13

A multiplier is the average multiple by which the films' total gross is from its opening weekend gross.

 

[KangConquers]

Post IM3 reassessment

Iron Man 3

Budget: $200 M
Domestic: $475 M
Foreign: $800 M
Total: $1.275 B

Thor: The Dark World

Budget: $185 M
Domestic: $314 M
Foreign: $604 M
Total: $918 M

Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Budget: $170 M
Domestic: $271 M
Foreign: $480 M
Total: $751 M

Guardians of the Galaxy

Budget: $170 M
Domestic: $220 M
Foreign: $400 M
Total: $620 M

Avengers 2

Budget: $300 M
Domestic: $575 M
Foreign: $1.1 B
Total: $1.675 B

 

[Mr. Dent]

Weird how we have identical total grosses but we get the numbers differently from the domestic/foreign split...up until Avengers 2. What makes you think the domestic gross would drop that much? I'd also say the movie should be able to make $1.4b overseas by 2015.

 

[KangConquers]

Weird how we have identical total grosses but we get the numbers differently from the domestic/foreign split...up until Avengers 2. What makes you think the domestic gross would drop that much? I'd also say the movie should be able to make $1.4b overseas by 2015.

Most gigantic movies lose domestic audience with their sequels and gain foreign audience. Look at TDK > TDKR, Revenge of the Fallen > Dark of The Moon, Spider-Man 1>2>3. Avengers could break that trend, but unlike other phase 2 movies, Avengers 2 doesn't get "Avengers boost" if that makes sense.