No Way Home No Way Home Box Office Predictions & Discussion Thread

[Iceman]

It's really too bad that this is releasing in covid times because this has the potential to be a Star Wars level mega December blockbuster. Even if it does great numbers, whatever it does I don't think it will be its top potential. This is the kind of event film that could give us our 8th $200M+ opening weekend but even in improving covid times I don't see it doing that.

Yeah, I guess it's going to be the same for all big films until COVID is less of an issue. Meaningful comparisons can only be made with other pandemic era films facing the same circumstances (like day 1 free streaming release or paid non day 1).

 

[psylockolussus]

My prediction for the opening weekend is $150 million in North America.

 

[JB33]

My prediction for the opening weekend is $150 million in North America.

I'd say it's almost certain to easily eclipse that. Not trying to crap on your prediction, just feeling like there's a lot of room for optimism here.

Man I don't even know if I can make a prediction yet. I feel like there is every reason to predict a massive number but I really don't want to be let down either haha. Even with Shang-Chi and Venom doing as well as they did, there could very well be a cap of some sorts as to what the box office can do, at least before Covid is completely erased from the public consciousness.

Gun to my head, as an early prediction based on absolutely nothing, I'll go with $185M opening weekend. I really want to wait for presales to give a better prediction though.

 

[Jermobooka]

With just how damn well the ticket sales for this movie have been doing, I’m more certain it’ll be able to reach $1B in the worldwide BO.

I mean, c’mon, have you seen the news?

'Spider-Man' fans 'beaten' in fight for 'No Way Home' tickets

 

[ragingdemon155]

I would love for these movie to go crazy in the box office…but this post Covid world now. You have some people that won’t even take a step outside of their house without triple masks, gloves and gowns. Even then, it’s a struggle to get them out the house. Life has changed and with that…these numbers just aren’t going to be what they could have

 

[Iceman]

I would love for these movie to go crazy in the box office…but this post Covid world now. You have some people that won’t even take a step outside of their house without triple masks, gloves and gowns. Even then, it’s a struggle to get them out the house. Life has changed and with that…these numbers just aren’t going to be what they could have

Yeah, some of those would have been opening weekend customers unfortunately. It is looking like it will do massive numbers regardless, but it won’t be able to do what it might have in a different time period.

 

[ragingdemon155]

Yeah, some of those would have been opening weekend customers unfortunately. It is looking like it will do massive numbers regardless, but it won’t be able to do what it might have in a different time period.

Yea pretty much.

There’s no doubt that it’s still going to do some insane numbers because this hype is just on another level…just won’t do what it once could
Have.

Then again stranger things have happened.

 

[InCali]

I'd say it's almost certain to easily eclipse that. Not trying to crap on your prediction, just feeling like there's a lot of room for optimism here.

Man I don't even know if I can make a prediction yet. I feel like there is every reason to predict a massive number but I really don't want to be let down either haha. Even with Shang-Chi and Venom doing as well as they did, there could very well be a cap of some sorts as to what the box office can do, at least before Covid is completely erased from the public consciousness.

Gun to my head, as an early prediction based on absolutely nothing, I'll go with $185M opening weekend. I really want to wait for presales to give a better prediction though.

I wish I had your confidence. I don't see any movie going that high at this time. I think in pre-COVID times, it does maybe 185, but possibly lower.

I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Drizzle]

It's really too bad that this is releasing in covid times because this has the potential to be a Star Wars level mega December blockbuster. Even if it does great numbers, whatever it does I don't think it will be its top potential. This is the kind of event film that could give us our 8th $200M+ opening weekend but even in improving covid times I don't see it doing that.

It's even more apparent now since this was posted given the pre-release ticket sales. If not for the pandemic, this would have likely breezed past The Force Awakens' December opening weekend record.

But it's also easy to forget that this wasn't always supposed to be a December release. If Covid wasn't a thing, this would have released five months earlier on July 16th, which is a weekend that's yielded box office opening weekend records in the past for The Dark Knight and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2. No Way Home definitely would have shattered the July OW record easily.

 

[Doctor Jones]

When was the last movie where the sites crashed for getting tickets? Endgame?

 

[mclay18]

When was the last movie where the sites crashed for getting tickets? Endgame?

Yes. I'm going to raise my predictions for this movie now. The anticipation for this will hit TFA levels, just in terms of its eventual multiple.

An $135M-$185M domestic opening is being too conservative at this point. It's only going to go higher. I think the pandemic will probably hold grosses back a smidgen.

My predictions: $190M-220M opening
Domestic total: $716M-$829.4M (going off a 3.77X akin to TFA)
Worldwide total: $1.7B

 

[Prison Mike]

Friday’s box office number is going to be pretty inflated since they will add on Thursday’s number to it. They should just say that this movie opens Dec 16th (rather than 17th) and report box office weekend numbers as four days rather than three (with an asterisk).

 

[InCali]

I hope it does really, really well and everyone is right. I think people have been waiting for a movie like this and maybe the floodgates will open.

 

[RaimiWebSpidey]

$250M+ OW

 

[InCali]

$250M+ OW

I don't know what you just ate for you last meal, but if you'll post the recipe of it in the "In the Kitchen with DKDetective and InCali: All Things Food, Wine, and Spirits, Etc.", I promise I'll try it.

I hope you're right, but, ummm.......

 

[RaimiWebSpidey]

I don't know what you just ate for you last meal, but if you'll post the recipe of it in the "In the Kitchen with DKDetective and InCali: All Things Food, Wine, and Spirits, Etc.", I promise I'll try it.

I hope you're right, but, ummm.......

Ummm what? This thing is already outpacing TLJ, TROS, and Infinity war with pre-sales. I’m being conservative

 

[Prison Mike]

I predict $500M OW, $1 billion domestic, $3 billion WW.

 

[InCali]

I predict $500M OW, $1 billion domestic, $3 billion WW.

Only a 2.0 multiplier? Surely you jest.
I changed my mind.......please send breakfast recipe. I haven't eaten yet.

 

[Prison Mike]

Only a 2.0 multiplier? Surely you jest.
I changed my mind.......please send breakfast recipe. I haven't eaten yet.

We’re still in a pandemic so these numbers may change…give or take by $2 billion

 

[InCali]

The thing is that in some major media outlets, you can't even get into a theater unless you show proof of full vaccination. That, without considering a TON of other factors, will exclude a lot of people from attending. You can't generally make a good prediction by using 1 factor. Sometimes, but generally not.

 

[mclay18]

Box Office Pro has revised their opening weekend predictions for NWH to be in the $190M-250M range, with a $520M-690M domestic final haul.

 

[InCali]

Box Office Pro has revised their opening weekend predictions for NWH to be in the $190M-250M range, with a $520M-690M domestic final haul.

Hope so, but early sales may not be indicative of overall sales we would see in normal times because we're still in a pandemic and people are obviously worried about these new variants (note that more people are being vaccinated). People are psyched for this movie. There is no doubt about that, BUT there could also be a much, much higher percentage of people who are buying early than would normally be the case. I know there is still a good percentage of people out there who won't go, or are nervous about going, to a packed theater. I always go to a Tuesday matinee and sit WAY up front. This is very tricky to analyze because we don't have anything to compare it to and just looking at early sales could be deceptive.

 

[Green Goblin]

If there was no pandemic I'd say something similar to Jurassic World. Now I'm thinking closer to Far From Home.

Better domestic box office than FFH, international will be a less due to closures and fear of the new variant.

 

[InCali]

If there was no pandemic I'd say something similar to Jurassic World. Now I'm thinking closer to Far From Home.

Better domestic box office than FFH, international will be a less due to closures and fear of the new variant.

I "think" that's about right, but I'm maybe a little bit more optimistic. This is anecdotal, but my go to theater is the Cinemark XD 18 at the Howard Hughes Center in Los Angeles. In the past, I've checked the available seating for the mega movie events like IW, EG, TLJ, etc. In those movies virtually everything was sold out and the only seats available were near the screen on the sides. In this particular case, the Friday evening shows look "sorta" that way. There are, however, a lot of first and second row seats available (in the XD theater) and the 11:30AM still has many, many good seats left. On Saturday, there are a lot of good seats available; most aren't even bought yet except for the XD theater which has a few, single good seats left and a lot for the evening showing.

It's somewhat anecdotal, but it doesn't have the same feel as the big Avenger or Star Wars movies. You literally had to wait until the weekday before you could get tickets and even then, there weren't that many good seats to be had. Part of this could be explained by this being LA and you have to be fully vaccinated before you can even get into the theater so that could discourage a lot of people from going.

My guess would be maybe 160-180M OW. We'll see soon enough. As I said before, we're really missing a lot of data points. We haven't had a huge, mega movie during the pandemic and because of that, there's more guesswork than usual. I'm usually pretty good at hitting numbers, but there are a lot of unknowns here.

FFH had tremendous legs and opened during the summer so weekly numbers were really strong. I don't see this movie having FFH legs.

EDIT: I think my predictions are on the high side because I really want this movie to be ultra successful.

 

[samsnee]