First Avenger Now with 2011 over saturation of Superhero movies Captain America MUST be delayed

[JeetKuneDo]

It's looking likely the HP movie is going to gross less than the previous HP movie. Not sure what that means, but Cap may have an easier time than we think. The last one may not be as huge as assumed.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Gross less? Why do you say that?

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Gross less? Why do you say that?

The last one made just over $300 million domestic (where Cap will make most of his money), this one doesn't look like it will get there. It may cap (heh) out around $290.

 

[Wolvieboy17]

Fail :P

http://www.superherohype.com/news/articles/168005-captain-america-opens-to-258-million-on-friday

 

[LostSon88]

With the new X Men movie opening June 3 2011 its crazy to have Captain America opening at the end of the summer movie season.Next summer is going to be over saturated with Superhero movies:Thor,X Men,Green Lantern,and then Captain America??people get tired and both,Captain America and the Avengers should be delayed: Cap for May 2012 and Avengers May 2013,If not,Captain America is going to be a bomb at the Box Office.

Way to call that one champ...

 

[Wolvieboy17]

Hahahahahahahahahahahaha.....

No,shame on you for no seeing the truth.Do you really think that after a crowded superhero movie summer,and coming at the end of the list,Captain America is going to be a big hit?.Its the start of a new franchise,and not only that,the movie needs to be a big hit ala Iron Man.Dont forget that Captain America is the leader of the Avengers.

Some dumb fan boys want to see the movie no matter what.I disagree.I really want the movie to be a big hit to see more Captain America movies.
I hope Marvel will be clever enough to move the release date,because if not,its going to be a disaster.People get tired of the same kind of movies,specially if the come together in few weeks.Next summer over saturation of Superhero movies is completely crazy.

Score one for the dumb fanboys

 

[LostSon88]

Some "dumb fanboys" should keep certain things to themselves...otherwise, THIS HAPPENS:

No,shame on you for no seeing the truth.Do you really think that after a crowded superhero movie summer,and coming at the end of the list,Captain America is going to be a big hit?.

Some dumb fan boys want to see the movie no matter what.I disagree.I really want the movie to be a big hit to see more Captain America movies.

I hope Marvel will be clever enough to move the release date,because if not,its going to be a disaster.People get tired of the same kind of movies,specially if the come together in few weeks.Next summer over saturation of Superhero movies is completely crazy.

I agree with you in everything.As you say,people get tired and fatigue can set in for anything.Next summer is too crowded with super hero movies.Comic book fans will go to see Captain America no matter what,but they are not who account for most of the ticket sales.Non comic book fans in general,families and people who just want to have a good time at the movies,those are who make possible the huge B.O. sales.

Many people will see Captain America trailer and no matter how great it looks and how big the marketing is,they will say:"That looks great,but another Super Hero movie?,no thanks,I will wait for DVD and go to see something different".Specially when 3 Super Hero comic book movies have opened in little bit more than just one month!!!Thor:May 6,X Men:First Class June 3 and Green Lantern: June 17.

Its the fan boy thats inside you who talks,the fan boy that wants to see Captain America no matter what.I want to see it too,more than any other movie.But if you start to think like a Business owner or a Hollywood producer,the release date for Captain America is horrible and it should be moved.

You cant compare summer 2008 with the over saturation of Superhero movies that are scheduled for summer 2011.

You are so dumb that you cant see the difference between creating momentum (releasing Superhero movies every year: IRON MAN 2) and over saturation of SuperHero movies in just few weeks.

I dont want Captain America to do just fine,I want it to be a huge hit,but with the release date it has now and next summer´s fierce competition....thats impossible..

[YT]BXbkEDuDpBA[/YT]

 

[TheVileOne]

Movie didn't exactly do Iron Man numbers guys.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

That's not the point though. It wasn't a disaster and it's not a flop. I expect Cap to also have a better run than Thor in the next few weeks.

 

[bunk]

Not to mention, pushing these movies back would just create the same situation a year later.

 

[Weadazoid]

That's not the point though. It wasn't a disaster and it's not a flop. I expect Cap to also have a better run than Thor in the next few weeks.

Cap should have a dern good domestic run, it may wind up coming out of this with 10 million more then Thor Domestic...


But Thor unterly owned the overseas markets due to the fantasy aspect


It strikes a balance don't you think?

 

[LostSon88]

edit

 

[LostSon88]

Movie didn't exactly do Iron Man numbers guys.

The point is, it wasn't the disaster this guy was preaching it would be and that anyone who thought otherwise were simply being 'dumb fanboys'.

It's not a disaster and has the potential to have a very nice run at the box office when all is said and done.

 

[TomPiltoff]

I think it is true that market oversaturation ought to be a concern to anybody who wants to see more comic movies.

Obviously (and thankfully) Cap didn't bomb, though.

 

[Iceman]

This decision might still have had a big effect on Cap's box office. We'll never know. Cap might have been as big as Iron Man, the embargo wouldn't have been so late and there would have been a lot more focus on Cap for 2 weeks giving time for the hype to build with the wider audience.

If TDK had been released on the same day as Titanic & Return of the King it would probably still have made significantly above $300m (if not $400m) and been hailed a big success. Cap's done fine but I think this was an unnecessary risk with a vital property.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

This decision might still have had a big effect on Cap's box office. We'll never know. Cap might have been as big as Iron Man, the embargo wouldn't have been so late and there would have been a lot more focus on Cap for 2 weeks giving time for the hype to build with the wider audience.

If TDK had been released on the same day as Titanic & Return of the King it would probably still have made significantly above $300m (if not $400m) and been hailed a big success. Cap's done fine but I think this was an unnecessary risk with a vital property.

What?

 

[LostSon88]

If TDK had been released on the same day as Titanic & Return of the King it would probably still have made significantly above $300m (if not $400m) and been hailed a big success. Cap's done fine but I think this was an unnecessary risk with a vital property.

TDK made over $530 million domestically.

 

[Tony Stark]

TDK made over $530 million domestically.

Yes, he's saying if it had been released the same day as those other poperties it wouldn't have made as much but still done well.

 

[Iceman]

Yes, the point is if it had been released against an unnecessary level of competition (eg Titanic/ROTK) as Cap was it would still have done relatively well at the box office (as Cap has) making for example $300m/400m plus but we would have not have known that it's true potential was over $500m. In the same way Cap's true potential could have been higher than a mid $60m opening weekend and closer to IM figures. We'll never know.

Yes, he's saying if it had been released the same day as those other poperties it wouldn't have made as much but still done well.

Thank you!

 

[LostSon88]

Yes, he's saying if it had been released the same day as those other poperties it wouldn't have made as much but still done well.

Which is seriously up to scrutiny when you consider that two of those were sequels with a lot of momentum and pre-release hype and the other was the first "Juggernaut" in movie history.

Iron Man, for whatever reason turned out to be the "diamond in the ruff" and just exploded onto screens. Its highly debatable that Captain America would've been able to catch that same lightning in a bottle.

I just can't understand the notion that people would've prefered they wait another year to release this...nevermind the fact that IF CA was delayed into next summer (thus bumping The Avengers to 2013) season, he would've had to contend with the presence of Spider-Man and Batman (to a much lesser extent, Ghost Rider).

Which in turn would force the Avengers in 2013 to contend with Superman, and Thor 2 and IM3...but oh wait, those would've gotten bumped as well to 2014.

You see where i'm going with this?

This movie will do fine. Will it be a juggernaut? No. Could it have been? Who knows.

But one thing you can't dispute is that by suggesting that they wait one more year would've essentially screwed up the entire lineup of CBMs in the future to the point that, yes...people will in fact become jaded with the "oversaturation" of the genre.

 

[Wolvieboy17]

Seriously, It's RIDICULOUS to argue "well, it may have done better than it has" after the fact, because there is literally no way to quantify it, it can not be used to back up any argument.

Also, Cap, causing HP to drop 84% on only it's second weekend is a huge achievement, especially considering Cap was only released in the states that weekend, and doesn't come out in most other countries until this week, whereas HP had international release already.

To say something stupid like "It hasn't done IM number" at this stage is simply innacurate. It's only a fair comparison if IM ALSO only had a domestic release first, before interntational, and towards the end of the summer movie period. It has done very well so far, and this weekend will be the real test of it's sucess, so lets wait until the REAL numbers are in before we write it off, or posthumously evaluate whether it would have been successful 'if...'

 

[Iceman]

But one thing you can't dispute is that by suggesting that they wait one more year would've essentially screwed up the entire lineup of CBMs in the future to the point that, yes...people will in fact become jaded with the "oversaturation" of the genre.

Yes, I agree with you on that. Cap & Thor definitely should not have been delayed once this timeline of films had been set in motion. I do think Cap could have chosen a better individual week of release. On the oversaturation point I think one of GL & First Class would have been better off being released in a different year.

 

[Iceman]

Seriously, It's RIDICULOUS to argue "well, it may have done better than it has" after the fact, because there is literally no way to quantify it, it can not be used to back up any argument.

Also, Cap, causing HP to drop 84% on only it's second weekend is a huge achievement, especially considering Cap was only released in the states that weekend, and doesn't come out in most other countries until this week, whereas HP had international release already.

To say something stupid like "It hasn't done IM number" at this stage is simply innacurate. It's only a fair comparison if IM ALSO only had a domestic release first, before interntational, and towards the end of the summer movie period. It has done very well so far, and this weekend will be the real test of it's sucess, so lets wait until the REAL numbers are in before we write it off, or posthumously evaluate whether it would have been successful 'if...'

It's not being used to back up an argument. It's being used to defend against the opposite argument which is saying that the release date was not a problem as Cap did ok. It's the belief that Cap's numbers justify its release in a competitive week that is unquantifiable as we don't know if it reached its potential or not. Without a major tentpole as direct competition (ie within 1 week) you have a free run & there is no suggestion then that competition has impacted your figures.

Cap causing HP to drop is quite possibly the case but I don't see it as a meaningful achievement. Why would you care about affecting a different film's box office? The aim is to maximise your own box office and that is when I believe any achievement becomes meaningful.

The use of IM numbers is not a criticism of Cap or saying that it should have done IM numbers. It's just a film that made more money & was the 1st example that came into my head. I'm happy with Cap's box office & haven't said a negative word against it. But it doesn't appease my annoyance with the choice of release date and what I see as the unnecessary risk Marvel took with what I believe is the most important character to their universe.

 

[Wolvieboy17]

Cap causing HP to drop is quite possibly the case but I don't see it as a meaningful achievement. Why would you care about affecting a different film's box office? The aim is to maximise your own box office and that is when I believe any achievement becomes meaningful.

But that's exactly what it did... HP's box office intake dropped because people WERE seeing Captain America... Hence the reason it was top of the box office for that weekend.... How is that NOT an achievement?

 

[Wolvieboy17]

Also, so far Cap's opening weekend domestically has matched Thor's opening weekend internationally. That's pretty good. It's shy of IM's opening weekend by 30 M, but was also showing in nearly 1,000 less theatres than IM's opening weekend.