Rumor: New Xbox to launch in 2010?

[Isildur´s Heir]

First of all, take it with a huge grain of salt; second the rumor started with 1Up; third....i don´t believe it for a minute.

Earlier this week gaming blog Kotaku quoted Microsoft's Shane Kim as saying that the launch of Natal, Microsoft's new controller-free motion control technology, would be as big as the launch of a console. Not surprising. That's because Natal is going to be a new console.

On this week's Listen Up podcast we discussed Natal, and David Ellis and I talked about what we've been hearing regarding the new technology -- and how it's actually the cornerstone of Microsoft's next evolution of the Xbox. Microsoft will not only release Natal as an add-on for the Xbox 360, it will come standard with the next Xbox console.

Yes, there will be a new Xbox console next fall.

However, the new console won't just be an Xbox 360 with a camera, though -- we've heard it will be considered a new platform and carry a new name (Xbox Natal?). It's not clear what sort of upgrades we might see, but some have suggested it will be an slight upgrade of the current Xbox 360 technology. Current Xbox 360 games would be playable on it, but future games would be able to take advantage of the added muscle. Similar to what we see in the PC space, games played on the more advanced Xbox would look or perform better, but publishers will still be able to support owners of both systems. Some developers have complained that they've already maxed out the Xbox 360; perhaps this will give them room to expand.

Make no mistake, we wouldn't be talking about the sort of hardware leap we've seen with Xbox (or most other) platforms in the past, and we're not talking about Microsoft ending one console cycle and starting another. We're talking about an evolution of the Xbox 360; similar hardware but upgraded, repackaged, and rebranded. It's actually not that unlike what Nintendo did with the Wii, where it essentially took the GameCube hardware, stuck in motion controls, and successfully relaunched it. The new Xbox console is said to be aimed directly at a mainstream audience -- and will launch before Nintendo is able to release its Wii HD.

What's interesting is that Nintendo and Microsoft are on a course to deliver very similar products yet are coming at them from opposite directions. Microsoft currently has the HD hardware and will in the future introduce motion controls, while Nintendo has motion controls and will in the future introduce HD hardware. Sony's PS3 will also be providing motion controls next year, though as a peripheral for its EyeToy camera.

As John Davison pointed out on the podcast, the Wii was the first console to do this, but it's likely that all future hardware will be more iterative than substantive. The distinction between new consoles will become far less marked -- similar to what we've seen in the handheld space, such as with the transitions from the Game Boy to the Game Boy Advance, the DS to the DSi, or the PSP to the PSP Go.

So when would we first hear about this new Xbox console? Our sources point to next year's Game Developer's Conference as the target for its unveiling and Fall 2010 as the target for release.

It doesn´t make sense, not after Shane Kim said that the 360 will have a life span of 10 years, meaning that the next Xbox would only come out in 2015.
Of course, no one believes that, the next generation should start in 2011/2012, and based on what Kim said, the 360 should go the PS2 route, meanig that there will be a time where 2 Xboxs will be out (just like it will happen with the PS3 and PS4).
Two years ago, Michael Patcher said that, in this generation, we would see several version of each console (in the same vein of what 1Up is saying), but that never came to be....
I don´t know much (if any) about game development, but Microsoft just released last GDC a new dev kit, with more memory (1Gb), which, from what´ve read, it makes developers tasks much easier to push their software (meaning, better everything, including graphics).
So, with that new dev kit, the idea of the 360 has already been pushed to it´s max, might be a thing of the past (the PS3 might have a better processor, but the GPU is the same or a bit better on the 360, from what i´ve heard, which doesn´t make sense how you have better looking games on the PS3 on the exclusive side, which makes me think that Microsoft doesn´t care so much for graphics as the PS3).
And the only thing a new Xbox could bring would be DX11 and a better CPU.

 

[Spider-Vader]

I don't know about this. I really hope it isn't. I'll be fine with a 2015 fate for the new Xbox.

 

[Soapy]

A ten year lifecycle doesn't mean they're going to wait ten years to release another console. It just means that they're going to support it for that long. Like Sony with the Playstation 2.

Is it really that hard to believe that Microsoft would release an iteration of the 360 with Natal more fully integrated?

I mean this rumor seems like common sense to me.

 

[Tron Bonne]

A ten year lifecycle doesn't mean they're going to wait ten years to release another console. It just means that they're going to support it for that long. Like Sony with the Playstation 2.

Is it really that hard to believe that Microsoft would release an iteration of the 360 with Natal more fully integrated?

I mean this rumor seems like common sense to me.

I think this is meaning more like a Xbox 720 type of deal. Totally new system, new power, new breed!

 

[Isildur´s Heir]

A ten year lifecycle doesn't mean they're going to wait ten years to release another console. It just means that they're going to support it for that long. Like Sony with the Playstation 2.

Like i said in my first post, i don´t believe that next gen will start in 2015, but rather in 2011/2012, so, the point is, Microsoft will support the 360 after the 720(?) comes out.
But i don´t believe that Microsoft will release another console next year.

Is it really that hard to believe that Microsoft would release an iteration of the 360 with Natal more fully integrated?

I mean this rumor seems like common sense to me.

If they release it, the diferences would be more than just cosmetic, it would run directX 11, have a better CPU, more RAM, and that would alienate part of it´s fanbase.
If the diference is just cosmetic (meaning, Natal integration), why would they, when Natal will work with every 360 under the sun?
The only point i can see is with the all crap running around about the 360 being already maxed out (which doesn´t make sense and Criterion agrees with me, saying that neither the 360 or the PS3 are already maxed out).
How can you already maxed out the 360 but not the PS3 when they have very similar GPU?
I´ve even read that the 360 GPU is slightly better, where the CPU is slightly better on the PS3.

 

[TheBat812]

i bet it's just a misunderstanding. Microsoft has done nothing but talk about how it wants to increase the life cycle of the 360.

 

[Havok83]

I dont beleive it either. I dont think MS could afford to put out a brand new console next year, nor would they want to. Way too soon

 

[hippie_hunter]

Like i said in my first post, i don´t believe that next gen will start in 2015, but rather in 2011/2012, so, the point is, Microsoft will support the 360 after the 720(?) comes out.
But i don´t believe that Microsoft will release another console next year.

With the recession, the hard time Sony and Microsoft are having making profits off their gaming businesses and the success of the Wii, I doubt that the next cycle will start in 2011/2012 unless it's a Nintendo console.

 

[dusk20]

I must say, I believe that we will be seeing a new Xbox console next year. Remember how months back Microsoft came out saying that a massive jump in technology isn't possible to release a new "next generation" console. However they mentioned many times that a refined Xbox 360 would be a possibility considering that technology has allowed them to compress and refine the current hardware to make a small step forward. I remember them coming out with this, and thought that meant a slimline Xbox 360 this year.

But now it seems like maybe it will be a jump from say, the Nintendo Gamecube to the Nintendo Wii. Not a massive leap in hardware specs, but more of a clean up and improvement on current hardware. and then something (motion control) to really push it forward.

personally I haven't been a big fan of the step Nintendo has taken with the Wii. I much prefer to sit with a controller in hand and play. motion control has never been fun...however, project natal seems like a new step forward. if it does what they showed in the demos at e3, then Microsoft will have me first in line.

 

[dusk20]

sorry, double post lol

 

[Tron Bonne]

That wouldn't really be a new console in my opinion. It would be closer to a re-release with add-ons. Like the DSi to the DS Lite or the PSP Go! to PSP-3000

 

[Fading]

I don't believe it either. There's currently no reason to switch gens again. The Wii is selling too well to cut out the fanbase that bought one and sell a new console already, and both MS and Sony have had to lay ppl off and neither has made a significant profit off their current consoles. Any of the 3 releasing a new console next year just makes no sense.

Not counting I think it'd further prolong the bad vibe many ppl got with the Xbox 1's life span. After 4 years they dropped it and all support for it. If they moved on from the 360 after 5 years after claiming they'd go 10, I think it'd further fuel ppls worries about an Xbox consoles lifespan.

On the other hand, I don't believe the 360 will have a 10 year lifespan either. MS has been in the comp buisness so long and is used to dealing with hardware constantly upgrading (they probably want to keep the 360 close to their new versions of windows for multiplat games). So I think they'll be first out of the gate again (other than the possible Wii HD).

 

[Fading]

That wouldn't really be a new console in my opinion. It would be closer to a re-release with add-ons. Like the DSi to the DS Lite or the PSP Go! to PSP-3000

For some reason you saying that reminded me of the N64 having that add on Ram cartridge or whatever it was. Ideas like that are awful IMO. It's like saying, "sure we'll still support those of you who bought our hardware, but you can't really enjoy the game unless you plop down more money for extra peripherals we made up on the spot."

 

[Tron Bonne]

Not counting I think it'd further prolong the bad vibe many ppl got with the Xbox 1's life span. After 4 years they dropped it and all support for it. If they moved on from the 360 after 5 years after claiming they'd go 10, I think it'd further fuel ppls worries about an Xbox consoles lifespan.

Well, to be fair to MS, it is a different situation. The user base for the original Xbox was really small. I always get some Xbot all puffy by saying this stuff, but the truth is if not for the American market the Xbox would have probably been lost to oblivion. If any other company besides MS had been behind that project it would have been considered a massive failure and there probably would not have been a 360. With the PS1/PS2 they each ended up with a massive user base of 130+ million, you simply can't ignore those numbers. If Sony had yanked support for those two systems as soon as they launched it's successor it would have been a foolish move. Nintendo with the GCN and MS with the Xbox, it simply wasn't worth the time or money to keep supporting those platforms with such small user bases (I believe in the end it was like 25 million and 18 million respectively). It's a ****** thing, yes, but it's real.

The 360 has a lot of potential and a good user base, it actually probably will be worth it to keep the support for as long as they realistically can. They can too since, well, they're MS and they have more than enough money to keep the juice pumping. At the end of it's run I can see the 360 having at least 50 million and I'd say that's enough to at least keep minimal support

For some reason you saying that reminded me of the N64 having that add on Ram cartridge or whatever it was. Ideas like that are awful IMO. It's like saying, "sure we'll still support those of you who bought our hardware, but you can't really enjoy the game unless you plop down more money for extra peripherals we made up on the spot."

Yeah, well it is a slippery slope. We'll when we get there I guess

 

[Isildur´s Heir]

Well, to be fair to MS, it is a different situation. The user base for the original Xbox was really small. I always get some Xbot all puffy by saying this stuff, but the truth is if not for the American market the Xbox would have probably been lost to oblivion. If any other company besides MS had been behind that project it would have been considered a massive failure and there probably would not have been a 360. With the PS1/PS2 they each ended up with a massive user base of 130+ million, you simply can't ignore those numbers. If Sony had yanked support for those two systems as soon as they launched it's successor it would have been a foolish move. Nintendo with the GCN and MS with the Xbox, it simply wasn't worth the time or money to keep supporting those platforms with such small user bases (I believe in the end it was like 25 million and 18 million respectively). It's a ****** thing, yes, but it's real.

Exactly!
Outside of the US, no one knew what the Xbox was.
And just to make things clear, last gen ended with Microsoft selling 24 million units and Nintendo with 21.74 million....Sony raped them both.

That wouldn't really be a new console in my opinion. It would be closer to a re-release with add-ons. Like the DSi to the DS Lite or the PSP Go! to PSP-3000

There are diferences between the DSi and DS Lite, just like PSP Go! and PSP-3000, even if they are small ones.
Home consoles never had those little upgrades, but the point is, to have them would mean more RAM, a better CPU, support to directX 11...it would be more expensive for that, and the games would be better, so, what about the fanbase that doesn´t want to buy another Xbox at this moment?
One can say that, one of the few things the PC have that consoles don´t and gives it the edge is upgrades, so, with it, that edge would fall apart, but, are people really wanting to buy a "new" xbox 5 years later?

 

[Soapy]

I agree with Teardrop. The comparison of "Xbox Natal" to the DSi is likely the most accurate way to look at it. Not really a new console, mostly the same just upgraded with some new features. You guys need to get out of the habit of thinking about console generations in such rigid terms. From here on out the line between one generation and another is going to get much, much blurrier. I think if you look at the way Apple runs their iPod line, you'll have a better understanding of how game consoles are going to be from now on.

 

[Tron Bonne]

There are diferences between the DSi and DS Lite, just like PSP Go! and PSP-3000, even if they are small ones.

You're right, technically these systems are new, but in the end their still essentially the same system as before with 'upgrades'. Like the DSi is an 'upgrade' from the DS Lite, but it's still the same core system just with things added (camera, download service, flash memory) and things cut (GBA compatibility). If they just simply re-release the 360 with integrated Natal support and call it the 360N or 360i or 360KlG or whatever, but it's still technically the same console with just 'upgrades' then, to me, it's still the same system

I agree with Teardrop. The comparison of "Xbox Natal" to the DSi is likely the most accurate way to look at it. Not really a new console, mostly the same just upgraded with some new features. You guys need to get out of the habit of thinking about console generations in such rigid terms. From here on out the line between one generation and another is going to get much, much blurrier. I think if you look at the way Apple runs their iPod line, you'll have a better understanding of how game consoles are going to be from now on.

I haven't thought of it in those terms, but it does seem to be tipping that way.

 

[Isildur´s Heir]

You're right, technically these systems are new, but in the end their still essentially the same system as before with 'upgrades'. Like the DSi is an 'upgrade' from the DS Lite, but it's still the same core system just with things added (camera, download service, flash memory) and things cut (GBA compatibility). If they just simply re-release the 360 with integrated Natal support and call it the 360N or 360i or 360KlG or whatever, but it's still technically the same console with just 'upgrades' then, to me, it's still the same system

Sure, but, what would be the point if Natal will work with every 360 console under the sun?
It would be pointless upgrade that no one would buy.

I haven't thought of it in those terms, but it does seem to be tipping that way.[/QUOTE]
Like i said in my first post, Michael Patcher said exactly that on a Bonus Round episode, 2 years ago or so, and he still goes around saying that this will be the last generation of consoles.
More even, it´s impossible to look at home consoles the same way you look at portable ones.
In a portable one, you can make slight upgrades, like a bigger and brighter screen, better battery life, less weight...., but, what can you do on a home console in the same vein?
I don´t totally dismiss that it can be done, those upgrades, but, is it worthy it?
And for what, to have Natal integration insted of buying it as a peripheral?
It would make it more expansive and no one would even look at it, unless it as something more to offer, like directX 11.
But, to have directX 11, it would need to have a better GPU, which would mean more RAM, and by that, a better CPU...see where i´m getting....a new console.

The only thing that makes me wonder is the all "foward compability" Microsoft talked about last year, wanting to bring it to their next console, meaning that all 360 games would not only run of the next console, but be way better technically (better graphics, color, resolution, sound...).
That would mean that the 360 and the new Xbox could coexist, hence the all 10 years life span.
But still on a technical level, the 360 is not worst than the PS3 (like a ex-Bungie employee said, contrary to popular belief, Killzone 2 would run perfectly on the 360), so, there is no point in trying to make an even better Xbox 360, unless they want to compete with the PC.
The only way i see this happening is if Microsoft jumps unto the all cloud computing and do an Onlive.
If not, or of the Onlive approach doesn´t work as good as they say it does, the only way would make something like this:

- Stop making the Xbox 360 Arcade and the 20Gb HDD
- Cut the price of the on the Xbox 360 Pro to equal the the Arcade and on the 60Gb HDD to make it standard.
- Cut the price of the Elite to equal the Pro
- Make the Xbox 360 "extreme", with all i said above and a way bigger HDD (because of the games on demand), but it can´t be more expansive than the PS3.

 

[Tron Bonne]

Sure, but, what would be the point if Natal will work with every 360 console under the sun?
It would be pointless upgrade that no one would buy.

I really don't know, I honestly haven't put any real thought into it. I just commented on what dusk said about releasing a 'new' console that was just a 360 with integrated Natal support. I don't think it's that incredibly off scale, it would probably be like a slimmed down 360 or something with the camera built in instead of bought separately aimed at new consumers who haven't purchased a 360 yet.

And I'll be honest, I could really care less about the situation. If they release it I won't be buying it, and I'm not buying a new console for a good long while.

 

[Havok83]

How can they integrate Natal into the 360? I see the accesory being bundled with it but not integrated into the system. Its a camera and it needs to see the player to work. Not everyone has their 360 out in the open or near their tv as many are in entertainment centers and other odd locations. Having it as a seperate attachment works best as users can center it and place it in the best possible position around the tv. Not so easy to do if it is part of the 360 hardware. Im pretty sure MS has thought of this and realized that it wouldnt be practical

 

[Tron Bonne]

How can they integrate Natal into the 360? I see the accesory being bundled with it but not integrated into the system. Its a camera and it needs to see the player to work. Not everyone has their 360 out in the open or near their tv as many are in entertainment centers and other odd locations. Having it as a seperate attachment works best as users can center it and place it in the best possible position around the tv. Not so easy to do if it is part of the 360 hardware. Im pretty sure MS has thought of this and realized that it wouldnt be practical

You're right, it would probably work best as a separate thing, but it could easily be integrated and it would work you'd just have to have more in the open. Or they could place in somewhere more in the open where it won't matter that much. Maybe around the power button. In the end that would be a minor inconvenience that could be easily remedied

Like I said, I'm not supporting or condemning the idea, I was just commenting on it and, honestly, I don't think it's that far-fetched.

 

[Grievous]

I don't know about this. I really hope it isn't. I'll be fine with a 2015 fate for the new Xbox.

yeah I'm in no rush for a new Xbox console to come out. I want the 360 I have now to be up to date for atleast afew more years.

 

[XxDelta09xX]

Im thinking 2011 would be good.

 

[Isildur´s Heir]

More on the all "new" XBox and takes this with an even bigger grain of salt.
It´s from a site named FGNOnline, which many say is pure BS.

1UP recently posted a new article revealing details on Microsoft's plans for their next XBox, we can officially confirm the information found in that particular report was indeed correct. However today FGNOnline would like to reveal Microsoft's planned specifications of their new unit.
As mentioned in the 1UP piece the system shall indeed integrate the motion sensing technology Natal into the actual device, however our separate sources can now reveal the modest upgrade made to the actual architecture of the new system.

GPU
Whereas the original XBox 360 used a Shader Model 3 GPU with on-board 10MB eDRAM for 720p acceleration, the new XBox has a Shader Model 5 capable GPU with 32MB of eDRAM for 1080p output. The GPU again is designed by AMD and runs at a clock rate of 600MHz.

CPU
The IBM developed CPU shall have 6 cores instead of the 3 found in the original model.
Each single core shall have the same processing throughput as each single core from the XCPU. Meaning the chip is literally 200% as strong and shall now be on equal footing with the PS3 CELL CPU in GFLOPS performance.

MEMORY
The main system RAM has been upgraded from 512MB to 1024MB, and from GDDR3 to GDDR5.
The system retains a Unified Memory Architecture.

OTHER
The platform integrates a 2.5" 32GB SSD (Solid State Drive) instead of a HDD (Hard Disk Drive) as found in the original models. The system also uses a standard DVD drive foregoing Blu-ray thus ensuring backwards and forwards compatibility whilst simultaneously keeping the bill of materials low. Internet connectivity is provided via WiFi.

RELEASE & PRICING
Microsoft plans on a Q4 2010 simultaneous worldwide release. The company is targeting a sub $300 price point.

Let´s play the game of actually believing it for a few minutes, i guess i was right, there needs to be more updates on the hardware side of the equation than just the integration of Natal.
But 32G SDD only???
Sure SDD is faster then HDD, but 32Gb with the all downloadable stuff going around, that´s way too small.
And no Blu-Ray...
It´s true that Microsoft will never have BR drive, and DVD would ensure backwards and forwards compatibility (foward compability, like i addressed in my previous post), but, with the bigger games coming out, there needs to a bigger format.
The good is that, like i also said, it wouldn´t be more expansive than a PS3.

In other news, they also say that Sega is on the verge of announcing a new console for 2010.
So, that this with a huge grain of salt...

http://fgnonline.webs.com/

 

[Tron Bonne]

In other news, they also say that Sega is on the verge of announcing a new console for 2010.
So, that this with a huge grain of salt...

http://fgnonline.webs.com/

Geez, why did you even bother to post this part. Stupid Sega