Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Box-Office Numbers

I'd say baseline for this is $600 million but it's still too early to tell what its ceiling is, especially without a full cast and no footage.

 

I'd love to see this movie do well, but I think we're looking at Ant Man numbers here. Still good, but not game changing.

 

I don't know. If they tap into the asian market like Black Panther tapped into black culture... skies the limit.

 

It'll do far better than Ant-Man. Ant-Man, despite the marketing, was still seen as goofy and skippable to a lot of casual people in part of the name and the smaller stakes. Shang-Chi being an action kung fu franchise is a much easier sell.

 

I can see it doing Dr. Strange numbers. It may give off vibes of Big Trouble in Little China which is not a bad thing. But this movie needs China though. Here's hoping the coronavirus is gone by that time.

 

Thank goodness it didn’t come out this year

 

It definitely will suceed in asian markets. Also every MCU-fan in western countries will watch it ...but I don‘t see much potential in other audience target groups, like it was the case with Black Panther or Guardians.
But not underestimating the asian market, it sure will be the most sucessful MCU-movie there, that isn‘t an Avengers-movie

 

With the pandemic now, I'd say $600M may be a decent figure to shoot for as the days of billion dollar box office runs isn't happening anytime soon.

 

Before the pandemic I was predicting 700 million. When Shang Chi was announced 600 million was pretty much the floor for a well reviewed MCU movie. I just figured that given time, that floor would rise on its own like how it has been since the first few phases.

Right now? Honestly I think it can hit 600 million given how good Godzilla has done and we're still 4 months away from the release. Which should be a time when the majority of people who want to get vaccinated will be by then.

 

Considering the current situation, and that He's not a "big/popular" character in the MU, I'd say it it could make between $600M - $700M; closer to the 600M, though.

If things don't work as well as expected (which is something I don't think it's gonna happen), I don't see it doing less than $500M.

 

I hope it will do well so that Hollywood can see that Asian-led movies can be successful blockbusters and will give more opportunities to other Asian leads.

But I do wonder if, after the pandemic and with increased racism and hostility towards Asians (not helped by the previous Whitehouse administration) that audiences might actually be less open to watching a film with an Asian lead.

 

Unfortunately, something like that might happen...

 

The September 3 date doesn't inspire much confidence. Halloween (2007) still holds the Labor Day weekend record with a mere $26,362,367 ($30,591,759 4-day).

Now obviously Shang-Chi will be more successful than that but it shows that Labor Day weekends is one of the yearly box office dead zones. This is irrespective of Covid. I would be saying this even under normal circumstances.

The flip side is that in a Covid world maybe traditional box office rules don't apply. I fully expect this movie to succeed regardless, it's just a very odd date for Marvel to choose.

The other possibility is that there is simply a back log of movies and Marvel Studios needs to get these movies out there so they can move forward on time with the overall narrative. Maybe they just had to put it there because they can't keep delaying and spacing the movies out like they normally would.

Just some ramblings from a box office nerd.

 

I’d like this to do well to help boost Asian leads as well as separately to boost martial arts in films and martial arts films.

 

I'm only a bit worried about the bad reactions in China, because it became a huge market, and a movie like that could (and should) make big money there.

 

Well, bad reactions in China is one thing because they don't usually like Hollywood-made films about Asians (like Crazy Rich Asians). But bad reactions in other parts of the world like America would be another thing if you get racist audiences who don't want an Asian-led film after being conditioned to hate them in the wake of the pandemic. I hope people will be as embracing as they were for Black Panther, but I don't know if they will.

 

A bad reaction in China from the general Chinese audience upon release is one thing. However, what's much more important is whether there's a bad reaction from the China Movie Channel. If they don't approve it the movie won't even be released in Chinese theatres, thus making no money at all there. As of yet it's definitely not completely certain that it will be approved.

See:
Marvel's 'Shang-Chi,' 'The Eternals' Face Uphill Battle to Enter China - Variety

 

That's serious. And it might even be tougher for Eternals (which already is, imo, a harder sell than Shang Chi).

 

With all the issues due to Covid-19, it's so hard to predict things from now on, at least until the end of the year.

Maybe I'm wrong because I want this movie to do so well, but it's gonna be a tough battle.

The only basis I have so far is Kong vs Godzilla with a box office of

Domestic (22.1%), $93,550,658 International (77.9%)
$329,700,000

Worldwide
$423,250,658

I suppose that, with the trailers, and being a Marvel movie, its going to make between 100-150M domestic; closer to $150M, I hope. Also, comparing to the above numbers, it will easily make around $400M international; probably a bit over it.

So, I'd say around $550M, which would be pretty good, considering the times we're living.

One thing more to analyse is the budget. I have no idea about it, and I hope it's not too big.