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BOX-OFFICE potential in the Multiverse of Madness

Discussion in 'Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness' started by psylockolussus, Jul 27, 2019.

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Will it gross more than a billion dollars worldwide?

Poll closed May 6, 2022.
  1. Yes, 1 billion plus

    59.5%
  2. No, 900 million plus

    16.7%
  3. No, 800 million plus

    14.3%
  4. No, 700 million plus

    9.5%
  1. First Avenger Registered

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  2. Erzengel |-o-| (-o-) |-o-|

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    Boxofficemojo says $1B. :huh:
     
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  3. Filmfreak Registered

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    Did it have a rerelease back then? I don't remember. If so maybe they are listing the original run? Because it certainly passed the billion mark in 2008.
     
  4. InCali I got a pUpgrade!

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    They did a re-release, but it wasn't too long afterwards IIRC.
     
  5. Mysteryman Registered

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    Box Mojo has TDK at 1.006 B.
    And,TDKR at 1.081 B.
     
  6. First Avenger Registered

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    Considering that the movie didn't come out in many Countries, how it's basically 'just' a Doctor Strange sequel which uses the Multiverse shenanigans to explore the characters of Strange and Scarlet Witch instead of being a cameo-fest, and how not exactly kid-friendly it Is, the movie is a huge hit and I believe Marvel is very happy with it. Hopefully they confirm Raimi and Elfman coming back for a third one.
     
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  7. TheVileOne Registered

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    No doubt To Gin wins this race but can we just 'marvel' at what MoM has done!!! After that huge second week drop and the lukewarm replies the majority of people her and on YouTube we're predicting 700-800 million with zero shot of a billion or zero shot of 400 domestically but the movie settled and found these remarkable legs to get to 400 domestic and over 900 million ww!! Bravo!!!
     
  10. Batgirl0202 Registered

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    Hey man, $400 mil is $400 mil! It don't matter who got there first. Strange is still crossing the finish line :yay:

    Kudos to @TheVileOne for keeping the faith and to @InCali for providing the thoughtful box office analysis.


    [​IMG]
     
  11. InCali I got a pUpgrade!

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    You could also add "incorrect" to "analysis" :funny: , but you're too nice to say it.......so I will. LOL. Untimately, those few million dollars won't amount to much more than a drop in the bucket, but 400M is a nice, round number.
     
  12. InCali I got a pUpgrade!

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    Yeah. What most people missed was that there was a very large group of people who REALLY loved the movie (me among them) and saw it more than once. That made for some very, very strong late legs. While some people have used "divisive", I think that's a little bit strong. It wasn't some people's cup of tea, but the reverse side was that it was well loved by a large group of fans.
     
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  13. MessiahDecoy123 Psychological Anarchist

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    Looks like Dr Strange 2 might beat Jurassic World 3 and Top Gun 2 will beat both.

    The box office rollercoaster is full of surprises. :funny:
     
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  14. InCali I got a pUpgrade!

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    Yeah. No one seemed to count TG in as being this big. There were some rumblings a bit before its release, but it was one of those movies that just caught fire.
     
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  15. TheVileOne Registered

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    I'm not a box office statistician, but just looking at general math and estimates the movie had more than enough gas for $400 million after the respectable third weekend drop. You cannot discount weekday grosses, holiday weekends such as Memorial Day, which is typically one of the biggest moviegoing days of the year, the fact that people are ready and eager to get out of their houses after being swept up in pandemic lockdowns and go see a big theatrical experience, plus schools letting out for the summer. All those factors played into MoM's success and continuing box office legs.

    Pundits, anti-MCU drones and critics way over-estimated the second weekend drop. This was not a Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice style drop. It was more like a typical MCU drop that was steeper because of how large the opening was. Not to mention people still wanting to go see it and all the other factors in play.

    Personally, I think the 6-week window is a giant piece of nonsense that needs to be eradicated as well. It's dumb and arbitrary. Let movies stay in theaters a little longer. Let them try and find an audience. Don't cannibalize your premium products.

    Streaming is not the pie in the sky it was sold as.
     
    #540 TheVileOne, Jun 14, 2022
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2022
  16. InCali I got a pUpgrade!

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    Oh Lord. Are you still on that? Again? I’m pretty sure I heard you the first time or two. But I believe what people underestimated was a pretty hard-core group of people, like I said myself, includes me. Take another bow and then get over it.
     
  17. TheVileOne Registered

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    Wasn't necessarily directed at you @InCali I was more pointing out the groups of people on YouTube or Twitter that were pointing out this film was a flop because it had such a large weekend drop.

    But virtually every prediction I made for this film's box office was fairly accurate. I said that due to Memorial Day coming up it would likely be enough to put it over $400 million domestic, and that was accurate.

    Considering how bad the reviews were, Dominion didn't do too badly.
     
  18. InCali I got a pUpgrade!

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    Whatever dude. Don’t sprain that shoulder. I know this place is littered with statisticians and you’re always talking about statisticians just like everyone else. Reporter is a good fit for you. People are right and people are wrong all the time about minor, really insignificant things. Not everyone jumps up on a stage, however small it is, to take repeated bows, but everyone has their thing.

    There’s always room for one last post extolling your shrewd powers of observation.
     
    #543 InCali, Jun 14, 2022
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2022
  19. JKKS085 Registered

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    Also to make things clear when @InCali and I (and others) predicted MoM wouldn’t get to 400M, it’s daily cume was around 4M behind Civil War (that one did 408M dom so the window there closing and closing fast), it was trailing it in dailies while otherwise consistently missing its tracking targets and falling in the low end of estimates weekend after weekend.
    What @TheVileOne anticipated (and kudos for that) was a change in trend, that wasn’t really supported by any data at the time though. That was the right call obviously but while I get the tongue in cheek nature of these “I told you so posts” maybe it’s time to retire them.
     
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  20. TheVileOne Registered

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    There was plenty of data. Third-weekend drop for example for Doctor Strange was considerably lower than Civil War. It was seven percent lower. Day to day it was still performing well and bringing in enough money so by the end of the Memorial Day Weekend, it was already going to be well over $370 million, which I also predicted earlier in this thread. By that point, $370 million-plus four weekends in, the rate it was going, $400 million was an easy mark to clear.

    If you want to continue looking at Civil War as the control variable, it's Memorial Day Weekend (fourth weekend) was also higher than Doctor Strange.

    You can't always go by movies with similar release dates. They aren't released under the same conditions and dealing with the same factors. They won't necessarily perform the same day by day.
     
  21. JKKS085 Registered

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    Oh sure thing after the weekdays leading to Memorial Day weekend and the weekend after that it was pretty clear. Before that not so much and I absolutely stand by that.

    Then again when the over/under 400M discussion happened, MoM’s cume was 4M behind CW with lower dailies (3rd Saturday was 14.6M for CW against 13.8M for MoM and MoM’s slight lead on Sunday only happened once actuals were posted). It could have recovered (and it did quite spectacularly) but that wasn’t a sure thing by any means unless you deep diver in other metrics (which to be clear I did not, probably the reason why I missed it).

    You point to the 3rd weekend drop. Let’s not forget that MoM was coming off an almost 8pts+ drop on weekend 2 compared to CW so that was a more or less a given. At that point though MoM’s internal multiplier was still trailing CW’s by close to 0.12 points and counting. Had it stayed on course it would have missed 400M. That’s all I’m saying.

    Now there’s nothing wrong with a hunch, I often do that when I don’t want to do a deep dive but let’s be clear that your (correct) prediction wasn’t supported by the trends we were seeing at the time. And of course sticking to trends and how previous releases performed is not th be all and end all of BO predictions. And this run made that pretty clear.

    Again congrats on being right.
     
    #546 JKKS085, Jun 14, 2022
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2022
  22. InCali I got a pUpgrade!

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    Exactly correct. In fact that small Monday drop before Labor Day caught my attention and I mentioned it, but one day wasn’t enough to establish a trend.

    i’ve also said that explaining something after the fact is not very impressive. It’s why I generally look to predict the future and not explain the past. Of course it doesn’t always work out. Statistics is meant to look at events on a macro level not individual events per se.

    I’d say that patting yourself on the back three or four times is probably enough. Agree with you there
     
  23. InCali I got a pUpgrade!

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    Oh, and sorry for some of the snide comments. Some things were just rubbing a little bit raw.
     
    #548 InCali, Jun 14, 2022
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2022
  24. OroroGambitFan Registered

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    What do u think the World Wide box office will like with those 3 movies-- US Domestic isn't usually 100% in line with WW Box Office. Do we have numbers for those 3 WW?
     
  25. MessiahDecoy123 Psychological Anarchist

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    Top Gun 2 is a lock for one billion.

    Dr Strange 2 will settle around 950m.

    I'm not sure about Dominion. Maybe in the high 800's or low 900's.
     

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