Black Widow at the Box Office!

[psylockolussus]

Is there any chance that this is gonna be a billion dollar grossing film?

Will Black Widow follow the footsteps of Batman, Iron Man, Captain America, Black Panther, Aquaman, Captain Marvel and Spider-Man as the 8th superhero (6th Marvel character) to headline a billion dollar grossing film?

I don't know about that but Marvel Studios since 2008 (except for 2009/2013) has been the opening the first month of the summer movie season and achieved great box office numbers. I don't expect a billion but over $700 million worldwide is great and I'm curious how the Endgame exposure would help this film especially Black Widow died in that film and if the gp would make this a must see movie of the summer.

 

[AvengerPA]

$150 million domestic, $200 million overseas, $350 million global.

 

[OroroGambitFan]

300 million domestic
450 million overseas
750 million worldwide!

 

[NHawk19]

I'm in the 700-800 million range but this one is weird because we have no idea how it's pushing the MCU overall story forward.

BP, IFW, AMatW, CM, EG, FFH all hit when the thirst for the larger MCU was at it's highest to date. Now that we're seemingly past that peak, it's really hard to predict this one. Will the thirst return by May? I imagine for many it will. However without the knowledge that Thanos/IFW/EG is coming I'm not sure what we'll see at the box office.

 

[KRYPTON INC.]

Honestly though... Outside some outliers like say CW or IW that's the case for the majority of MCU films so far. We don't know how most affect the MCU as a whole until after we see them and even then, it might be a couple years before we can even begin to see how they shake out.

I don't think any of us would have pegged that the end of AoU was going to be the jumping off point for CW. I don't think that any would have expected Talos/Fury and the possible implications there before seeing FFH.

As with the other films I don't think we can ever really see how this movie does or does not fit until after its releaded.

 

[NHawk19]

To use your examples, no we didn't know those specifics. However, we knew AoU would push the Avengers narrative and have an impact on the universe even though we just didn't know how. Mostly because Fiege had already called his shot with IFW. With FFH we knew it would almost be a prologue to End Game driving people to see it. Talos and that stuff was just a bonus. Even with the other films, we knew they were building towards something because Fiege laid out the plan and we knew the releases leading up to the culmination of the story.

For this one, we really don't know anything about what its going to do to the overall narrative. It's presumably set right after Civil War, and we know Nat's fate. No idea how or even if it will push anything further until we start maybe seeing trailers, which makes it possbile that we don't "need" this one to understand the rest of the narrative (yet). We may need it later for what's coming but as for must see right now, the GA may say maybe not.

This is the first time in a long time that we have no idea where the MCU is headed, and this is the first film to set us off on that new path.

 

[HammerDown]

Very early predictions.

Opening Weekend: 70M
Domestic Gross: 200M
International: 300M
Worldwide: 500M

 

[Sonath]

Very early predictions.

Opening Weekend: 70M
Domestic Gross: 200M
International: 300M
Worldwide: 500M

I'm having a hard time figuring out whether you are joking or not. I assume didn't dig the teaser but still, is this really what you expect?

 

[DarkKnight88]

I think that’s pretty accurate Ant-Man type numbers. Seems appropriate for this.

 

[HammerDown]

I'm having a hard time figuring out whether you are joking or not. I assume didn't dig the teaser but still, is this really what you expect?

Yep. More or less.
I could be lowballing the movie but it's my guess at this point.

Black Widow is supposedly an origin story/prequel. For comparison i used some of the solo origin stories in the MCU as a template plus some of the more recent outings in order to create some sort of correlation box office wise. Also BW is not very popular, not as much as most of the other characters... And it's a prequel movie to a character we've seen countless times before and has recently died "in Universe". So what's the real draw here?

Right now i have it performing similarly to Ant-Man. I thought the trailer looked Ok and i think we might get an average MCU movie. The Marvel brand could bump this considerably though. I'll reserve the right to readjust my projections when more footage is release.

 

[Sonath]

Yep. More or less.
I could be lowballing the movie but it's my guess at this point.

Black Widow is supposedly an origin story/prequel. For comparison i used some of the solo origin stories in the MCU as a template plus some of the more recent outings in order to create some sort of correlation box office wise. Also BW is not very popular, not as much as most of the other characters... And it's a prequel movie to a character we've seen countless times before and has recently died "in Universe". So what's the real draw here?

Right now i have it performing similarly to Ant-Man. I thought the trailer looked Ok and i think we might get an average MCU movie. The Marvel brand could bump this considerably though. I'll reserve the right to readjust my projections when more footage is release.

Guess we'll see

 

[The Caped Knight]

I expect this to be a surprising hit like Captain America: The Winter Solider ended up becoming. If they do the marketing right which I highly expect Disney to do. This has huge potential as a spy, action thriller film. If the likes of John Wick, Jason Bourne and even Mission Impossible are able to succeed then I honestly cannot imagine Black Widow not being successful. Scarlett is a talented actress with a size able following of fans who support her films. Plus Natasha Romanoff aka Black Widow is a fan favorite Avenger in The MCU. It’s a lock for money making.

 

[BoredGuy]

No way this doesn't do better than Ant-Man
I'm guessing somewhere around $800m with a 90m opening in the US
She doesn't have the (ugh, shudder to use this term) SJW support because of some stupid ass comments scarjo has made over the years, so I don't think it gets to a billion like Cpt Marvel, but she's still a popular character who fans have been clamoring for a movie for for a while now, so I think it does Winter Soldier to Ragnarok type numbers

 

[Web-Head]

I'm guessing somewhere in the 700-800 million area for this, which isn't bad.

 

[DKDetective]

I think this will do a billion easy. It is the Swan Song for one of the original Avengers and it is a female hero. I see this doing Black Panther/Civil War/Iron Man 3/Captain Marvel numbers. It is scheduled for Marvel's flagship first weekend in May spot for a reason.

 

[KaijuDude1992]

I think $700-$800M is more than reasonable for this, but I also think it has a great shot at $1B+ as well. Black Widow is an OG Avenger after all, and Endgame could end up really boosting this movie with it being sort of a Swan Swong for her getting properly ushered out.

 

[xenos5]

I think this film needs an X-Factor to go past a billion. Far From Home was better positioned to ride off the still fresh Endgame hype due than this movie is considering how shortly that came out after Endgame. Captain Marvel was sort of riding off of Endgame's hype as well just because it was coming so shortly before Endgame as the hype was building higher and higher.

And I really hope that X-Factor is the villain. Captain Marvel kinda broke the streak of really good villains the MCU has been having (though Endgame and Far From Home picked started it back up again with Thanos not only still being great but us getting to see a different side of his character, and MCU Mysterio honoring the spirit of the comicbook character perfectly).

Taskmaster I feel has so much potential as his backstory is really good (the more he learns the more he forgets about his former life due to him taking an imperfect version of the supersoldier serum), and his ability lends to fantastic martial-arts choreography (him pretty much copying the moves of anyone he's ever fought or even seen fighting) that should hopefully lead to him needing to be taken down in a more unconventional way as Black Widow can't just outfight him. The way Doctor Strange beat Dormmamu has kinda made me crave something like that, more instances of the hero beating the villain despite being weaker not because they're stronger.

 

[Negrotigre]

I think this will do a billion easy. It is the Swan Song for one of the original Avengers and it is a female hero. I see this doing Black Panther/Civil War/Iron Man 3/Captain Marvel numbers. It is scheduled for Marvel's flagship first weekend in May spot for a reason.

Black Widow will make around $1 billion.

 

[psylockolussus]

To me, 2020 seems like a quiet year. Other than Mulan, the only really mainstream movies coming out before Black Wid⧖w, that might really dominate the box office are Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) and No Time to Die. But I don't think those two would interest the kids more than this film. While Onward doesn't seem like the next big Pixar thing jn my opinion, and I don't see the Quiet Place 2 outgrossing its predecessor. So I think this would help Black Wid⧖w at the box office. Plus there should be an Endgame boost for this.

700 million is a lock for this. Thats pretty damn good for a character they have already killed and I'm still not sure if they would just make this a 1 and done Black Widow solo outing.

 

[8ulk87]

After the trailer im gonna say $800-900 mil.

 

[bubbadoom]

If a movie with a relatively unknown character like CAPTAIN MARVEL can cross a billion world wide, a movie that starred an actress who seemed to go out of her way to say stupid things as if she was trying to alienate a large percentage of the films audience - then I would hope that a film starring a fan favorite like BLACK WIDOW, a character who many have been asking for a solo film since IM2 and stars a likable and bankable actress should have no problem making similar numbers.

 

[Naglfar]

The trailer on youtube has reached 1M likes and also



Now, that doesn’t necessarily means those numbers will translate to good BO results but the signs are positive

 

[Fallen]

Most-liked Hollywood movie trailers of all time on YouTube:

1. Avengers: Infinity War - Trailer 1 (3.5M)
2. Avengers: Endgame - Trailer 1 (3.2M)
3. Avengers: Endgame - Trailer 2 (2.9M)
4. Spider-Man: Far From Home - Trailer (1.8M)
5. Avengers: Infinity War - Trailer 2 (1.8M)
6. Detective Pikachu - Trailer 1 (1.4M)
7. Joker - Teaser (1.4M)
8. Venom - Trailer 1 ( 1.4M)
9. Lion King - Teaser (1.3M)
10. Black Widow - Teaser (1.2M)

THE HYPE IS REAL!

 

[Kuwolski]

Aside from Pikachu, that seems to be a pretty good metric. Impressive the trailer has racked up those numbers so quickly.

 

[Everett Ross]

$130M OW
$360M DOM
$190M China
$490M OS-China
$1.04B WW