Thor: Box Office and Predictions

[psylockolussus]

Is there any chance that this is gonna be a billion dollar grossing film?

Will Thor follow the footsteps of Batman, Iron Man, Captain America, Black Panther, Aquaman, Captain Marvel and Spider-Man as the 8th superhero (6th Marvel character) to headline a billion dollar grossing film?

Since this was already being discussed in the phase 4 thread, might as well create a thread for it. Unless November 2021 has serious competition, well Fantastic Beasts 3 is opening 1 week after Love and Thunder, then it might not hit $1 billion. But Thor's first film after Endgame and a female Thor should be huge selling points. I think 1 billion is guaranteed.

 

[HammerDown]

I'd say it's a strong possibility. Each movie is making 200M more than the previous entry.
So by that logic it should crack that 1B mark. Also Ragnarok followed up on The Dark World which wasn't an easy task, Love & Thunder follows up on Ragnarok, IW and AEG which is a whole different ball game.

Thor - DOM: 181M (OW: 65M) / Foregin: 268M = Total: 449M
Thor 2 - DOM: 206M (OW: 85M) / Foregin: 438M = Total: 644M
Thor 3 - DOM: 315M (OW: 122M) / Foreign: 538M = Total: 853M

My 2 cents...

Thor 4 - DOM: 370M (OW: 130M) / Foregin: 650M = + 1B

 

[HammerDown]

 

[All-Father]

I believe it will surpass the $1B mark. It has all the elements to do it.

 

[Iceman]

Without the pandemic aftereffects I would have been sure of over a billion. Hopefully it’s still possible by the time it comes out.

 

[HammerDown]

Decided to post some relevant info regarding TLT’s box office potential based on general audience awareness and anticipation. Pretty great signs so far.

Worth mentioning that TLT is one of those films that hasn’t even had a sneak peak/first look or trailer out yet which would definitely further increase the general audience awareness and level of anticipation.

The Batman Tops IMDb's Most Anticipated Films Of 2022 List

1. The Batman
2. Scream
3. Thor: Love and Thunder
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Killers of the Flower Moon
6. Jurassic World: Dominion
7. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
8. Mission: Impossible 7
9. Uncharted
10. The Flash

IMDb determines its list of the most anticipated titles by the actual page views of the more than 200 million monthly visitors to IMDb. This exclusive and definitive data is derived from the IMDbPro movie and TV rankings, which are updated weekly throughout the year.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

856 million worldwide.

 

[HammerDown]

I guess these results are likely influenced by the marketing, so films that haven't yet started their marketing campaign, that don't have any footage whatsoever naturally have worse odds. To see TLT once again so high on these lists/projections gives a lot of confident that it will perform accordingly.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

I don't think Avatar will finish second.

 

[Mandon Knight]

I think for many, Bale being in this is a major pull. He doesn't sign up for any old tosh.

 

[Fosterson]

I think for many, Bale being in this is a major pull. He doesn't sign up for any old tosh.

Well, he did sign up for Terminator Salvation, but let's try and forget about that one...

What Bale always does bring though is his absolute A-game, so at the very least we can expect a great performance. Let's just hope that the the way Gorr is written gives him some actual depth as a character as well...

 

[Mandon Knight]

Well, he did sign up for Terminator Salvation, but let's try and forget about that one...

I quite like it. For me, it's the best of what's followed since the second, BUT I've not seen Dark Fate yet.

 

[Fosterson]

I quite like it. For me, it's the best of what's followed since the second, BUT I've not seen Dark Fate yet.

Genisys is worse IMO. But that doesn't make Salvation any less lacklustre.

 

[Mandon Knight]

Genisys is worse IMO. But that doesn't make Salvation any less lacklustre.

Aye, Genisys is rotten to the core and I'm not saying Salvation is a 'classic' I just think it's an okay film with some good concepts but the edit kills it, it's so poorly edited, you can tell where scenes have been shortened or ditched completely. Anyway, getting off topic here, will let the Bale factor be for Thor. I think he will do really well in this film.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah I was surprised when I heard Bale was in this and it made me even more excited for the film.

 

[HammerDown]

Jul. 1st - Minions: The Rise of Gru
Jul. 8th - Thor: Love and Thunder
July 22th - Nope
Jul. 29th - Bullet Train / Super-Pets

Black Adam just jumped out of July and instead the Super-Pets film is taking its place. Good news for TLT’s box office run, less competition and also August is basically a barren wasteland in terms of big film releases so TLT could capitalize on that as well.

Edit: Bullet Train also moved away from July 15th into the 29th. So further positive news for TLT’s box office run.

 

[Iceman]

Jul. 1st - Minions: The Rise of Gru
Jul. 8th - Thor: Love and Thunder
July 22th - Nope
Jul. 29th - Bullet Train / Super-Pets

Black Adam just jumped out of July and instead the Super-Pets film is taking its place. Good news for TLT’s box office run, less competition and also August is basically a barren wasteland in terms of big film releases so TLT could capitalize on that as well.

Edit: Bullet Train also moved away from July 15th into the 29th. So further positive news for TLT’s box office run.

This very much increases L&T’s chances. Strange that August has no heavy hitters.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

This film will crack 1 billion.

 

[HammerDown]

Time and time again we’ve seen these headlines for TLT. This is going to be huge at the box office.

 

[Iceman]

If they show the L&T trailer with MoM the hype will explode!

 

[Dcs72]

If they show the L&T trailer with MoM the hype will explode!

That would seem a given.

The trailer showing with MoM, that is.

 

[Iceman]

That would seem a given.

The trailer showing with MoM, that is.

MoM & L&T are the best combo for this phase and should properly get MCU excitement back coming out one after the other in short succession.

 

[psylockolussus]

Of course 1 billion!

 

[HammerDown]

DS:MOM scored a huge 190M OW with a weekend worldwide gross of 450M. It’s on track for a 375/400M domestic total and around 1B worldwide total. Great overall results.

Those are big numbers for another MCU movie. I think TLT has a similar target to hit as well and depending on a few factors it could go either way. Overall I think the awareness factor is already pretty big with Marvel barely showing us anything, once things really kick into gear and we see the full deck of cards then it’s anyones guess how well it can perform. Pretty exciting stuff.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Based on the growth of OW and total grosses from the previous films (Thor 1: $65.7M OW and $449.3M total; Thor: TDW: $85.7M OW and $644.8M; Thor: Ragnarok: $122.7M OW and $854M total,) I'd say Thor: Love and Thunder is going to be setting new franchise records.